1. Prof. Anatoly Zolotukhin
Arctic Resources:
Arctic Business Forum Round Table
August 30, 2013, Oslo
Emerging opportunities and existing challenges
Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas
National Research University
ARCTIC FORUM FOUNDATION

2. World Primary Energy Consumption
2
Source: INES RAS report, May 2013
Total: 12,8 BTOE
(~ 92 Bboe)
Total: 18,0 BTOE
(~ 130 Bboe)
2ABRT, Oslo

3. 3
Why Arctic is so important?
Arctic is believed to be
an area with the
highest unexplored HC
potential in the world
By 2035 the demand for
oil and gas will grow
globally by 18% and
44%, respectively
60% of planned oil and
gas production in 2035
will be from fields, not
yet found and discovered
Ref.: DNV Summer project 2011, World Energy
Outlook, Oil & Gas Journal, USGS
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4. Source: O.A. Lindseth; 2011
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Energy Resources in the Arctic
Source: O.A. Lindseth; 2011

5. 5
Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas in the Arctic
Donald L. Gautier, et al. Science 324, 1175 (2009); DOI: 10.1126/science.1169467
Undiscovered Oil
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6. 6
Undiscovered Gas
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Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas in the Arctic
Donald L. Gautier, et al. Science 324, 1175 (2009); DOI: 10.1126/science.1169467

7. HC Resource Potential of the Arctic shelves:
USA, Canada, Greenland (Denmark), Norway, Russia
Producing, under development,
discovered and undiscovered fields
Liquid / gas
Source: Diagrams built by using UCube software (Rystad Energy)

8. Producing, developed and discovered fields
HC Resource Potential of Norwegian Continental Shelf
Undiscovered unawarded resources
Source: Diagrams built by using UCube software (Rystad Energy)

9. HC Resource Potential of the Barents Sea
Producing, developed and discovered fields Undiscovered unawarded resources
Table shows only undiscovered unawarded resources
Green circle (Shtokman) indicates the scale
Source: Diagrams built by using UCube software (Rystad Energy)

10. HC Resource Potential of the Russian Arctic shelves
Kara Sea
(w/o Ob & Tazov bays)
Barents Sea
Laptev, East-Siberian & Chukchi seas
Sea of Okhotsk
Producing, under development,
discovered and undiscovered fields
Liquid / gas
Source: Diagrams built by using UCube software (Rystad Energy)

11. Russia’s conventional HC reserves & resources
Ref.: D. Khramov, Rus-Norw Seminar, June 20, 2011
Total: 355 BTOE
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12. ABRT, Oslo 12
Development
opportunities

13. Shtokman
Snøhvit
Skrugard-Havis (Johan Castberg)
Goliat
Snøhvit LNG
The Barents Sea:
An area of international energy cooperation
Fedyn
swell
Gazprom
Rosneft
Lukoil
Statoil
ENI
ExxonMobil
13
Novatek
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Total
Shell
BP
RN Nordic Oil AS
Free economic zone?

14. Ref: V. Bashkin, R. Galiulin, Neftegaz.ru, No. 8, 2012
Agenda: A – end of the Ice Age; B – climate maxima; C – Rome climate maximum;
D – human migration; E – medieval warm period; F – Little Ice Age; G – current warming
14
Years from now (x 1000)
Temperature,0C
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
Cooling and warming periods
in the Northern hemisphere:
shipment opportunities
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15. > 1
15
Keeping the energy balance:
Exploration and development cost
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> 1 trillion $
Exploration expenditures, all Russian shelves

16. 16
 Environmental & Reputation
 Geological
‒ Low exploration status
 Political
‒ Territorial disputes
‒ Security of Supply
 Economics/Costs
‒ High CAPEX / OPEX and transportation cost
 Competing resources
‒ Shale gas & CBM, lower cost OPEC oil
 Harsh environment
Source: K. Mørk, DnV, 2012
Challenges associated with the development of Arctic resources:
Concluding remarks
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17. 17
Opportunities associated with the development
of Arctic resources:
Concluding remarks
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 Environmental & Reputation
 Geological
 Political
 Economics/Costs
Technology tunnel concept:
Develop oil/gas fields from a shoreline base
Cavern(s)
Sea level
Onshore
facilities
Technology Tunnel
 Build dry. Wet or dry drilling/production
 L < 30 km, D 6+ m, Cavern 35 m high
 Max depth 350 m below sea level
Production wells
Control
room
Rig
SedimentsRock
Pumping pit
 Technology development
 Security of supply:
‒ Infrastructure development
‒ Pan Arctic transshipment
 Education and culture
‒ Joint international programs

18. We can have a safe, secure and reliable
development of arctic resources… only through
cooperation, not competition, among arctic
nations.
Any other way of doing this… will not benefit
any nation in the long run.
Assistant Secretary of State Daniel S. Sullivan,
Oct. 15, 2007
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19. ABRT, Oslo 19
A. Kontorovich, RAO-2009
In the second part of XXI century production of HC in the
Arctic petroleum mega basin will be as important in
energy supply as Persian Gulf and West Siberia basins
today

20. Thank you!
Prof. Anatoly Zolotukhin
E-mail: anatoly.zolotukhin@gmail.com
Phone/Fax: +7 499 135 75 16
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