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Capital Requirements Under
Basel II:
Evaluation Of Capital Requirement to Default
Probability, Loss Given Default and Maturity for
SME and Other Retail Asset Classes



                                    Maggie Kriebelt
                                     October 2011
Minimum Requirements for Internal
Rating Systems for Basel II
 Minimum 7 rating classes for non-defaulted borrowers
 No excessive concentrations in single rating classes
 Differentiation of risk amongst the rating classes
 Plausible, intuitive and current input data
 All relevant information must be taken into account
 No preference for model methods




                                Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
Risk-Weighted Assets for Small &
Medium Sized Entities: Evaluating
Exposures Not In Default
   Based on the Section 273 of the Basel II Committee
    Notes - Rules for Risk Weighted Assets in this Class Are
    Determined As Follows:
    Correlation = 0.12 * (1-e(-50*pd))/(1-e(-50))+ 0.24 * [1-(1-
    e(-50*pd)) / (1-e(-50))] – 0.04*(1-(S-5)/45)
    Maturity Adjustment = (0.11852 – 0.05478*ln(pd))^2
    Capital Requirement = [LGD * N(1-R)^-0.5 * G(PD) +
    (R/(1-R))^0.5 * G(0.999)] – PD * LGD] *(1-1.5*b)^-1
    *(1+(M-2.5)*b)
    Risk Weighted Assets = 12.5 *Capital Requirement*EAD


                                      Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
Risk-Weighted Assets for SME Exposures:
Evaluating Exposures Not In Default

   Risk Weighted Assets for entities with sales under 50
    million Euros are likewise stressed at the alpha 0.1%
    level to obtain a 99.9% confidence that realizations of
    default on the portfolio for each exposure is better
    than the stress scenario
   Maturity adjustment remains the same
   Correlation is dependent on Probability of Default and
    adjustment for firm size is incorporated
   Required Capital increases for larger SME’s and is more
    pronounced at higher maturities as can be seen from
    Required Capital surfaces at 1Yr, 5Yr, 10Yr and 20Yr:
    response surface and grid illustrations follow

                                    Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
Determining Probability of Default
 ◦ Migration Matrices to calculate PD using
   Cohort Method or Hazard Rate Method
   from historical credit ratings
                  Sample Rating Data
             Obligor    Date      Rating
               12550 17-Nov-84 AA
               12550 1-Feb-00 BBB
               12550 21-Mar-04 BB
               14770 2-Sep-82 CCC
               14770 30-Dec-94 B
               14770 14-Apr-96 BB
               13426 30-Sep-82 B
               13426 3-May-96 BB




                                           Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
Cohort Method
   Uses obligors that have a rating at
    beginning of evaluation period creating a
    transition matrix with frequencies of
    rating at end of period
    ◦ Let Ni,t = # of obligors in category i at
      beginning period t
    ◦ Let Nij,t = # of obligors in cohort i that moved
      to grade j at end of period t
    ◦ Transition frequency in period t
      pˆij,t = Nij,t / Ni,t


                                Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
Cohort Method
 ◦ Transition frequency averaged over all periods
   pˆij,t=  Ni,t * pˆij,t /  Ni,t
             t                 t

 ◦ Combining equations and reducing yields the
   obligor weighted average as the aggregate of
   the transitions from i to j divided by the total
   obligors in cohort i at beginning of period
   pˆij,t=  Ni,t * [Nij,t / Ni,t] /  Ni,t
              t                        t
   pˆij,t=  Nij,t /  Ni,t
              t        t
   pˆij,t= Nij / Ni


                                       Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
Cohort Method Portfolio Results
on Hypothetical Credit Data
                One Year Transition Probabilities Based On Cohort Approach
                   Using Historical Credit Ratings Data From 1986 to 2005
  From/To AAA       AA        A           BBB        BB       B          CCC   D
  AAA      93.70606 5.523937 0.602611 0.133914 0.033478                0     0        0
  AA       1.778222 93.12687 4.355644 0.579421 0.11988                 0     0 0.03996
  A        0.110274 2.940636 92.17056 4.208785 0.459474 0.055137             0 0.055137
  BBB      0.021418 0.257014 5.225958 90.27629 3.512529 0.471193 0.042836 0.192761
  BB       0.023137 0.161962 0.624711 6.362795 88.59324 3.378066 0.254512 0.601573
  B               0         0 0.041632 0.749376 7.993339 86.5945 2.622814 1.998335
  CCC             0         0 0.095057 0.285171 1.996198 5.038023 82.12928 10.45627
  D               0         0          0           0        0          0     0      100
                One Year Transition Probabilities Based On Cohort Approach
                   Using Historical Credit Ratings Data From 1996 to 2005
  From/To AAA       AA        A           BBB        BB       B          CCC   D
  AAA      91.27219 7.544379 0.887574 0.221893 0.073964                0     0        0
  AA       2.573808 91.06737 5.412566 0.719152 0.189251                0     0 0.03785
  A        0.167729 3.555854 90.00335 5.73633 0.469641 0.033546              0 0.033546
  BBB      0.037566 0.413223 6.423742 88.12923 3.869271 0.713749 0.075131 0.338092
  BB       0.054915 0.384404 1.043383        9.2257 84.40417 3.953871 0.10983 0.823723
  B               0         0 0.120773 1.449275 9.903382 82.72947 2.777778 3.019324
  CCC             0         0 0.429185 0.858369 3.433476 6.437768 79.39914 9.44206
  D               0         0          0           0        0          0     0      100




                                                            Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
Cohort Method Portfolio Results
5Yr & 10 Yr Migration
                Five Year Transition Probabilities Based On Cohort Approach
                   Using Historical Credit Ratings Data From 1986 to 2005
   From/To AAA       AA        A           BBB        BB       B         CCC   D
   AAA     73.06543 21.29285 4.284603 1.046794 0.254769 0.023495 0.002075 0.029982
   AA      6.847254 71.90163 16.54954 3.600975 0.786187 0.087365 0.007538 0.219519
   A       0.847467 11.09027 69.29591 15.13993 2.739804 0.478313 0.040981 0.367323
   BBB     0.189815 2.181287 18.61027 63.33793 11.89928 2.346053 0.285521 1.149843
   BB      0.128347 0.919461 4.680541 21.11996 58.13473 10.40889 1.276009 3.332054
   B       0.019635 0.154885 1.018553 5.993631 24.44986 51.382 6.864434 10.11701
   CCC     0.006867 0.064796 0.57572 2.121639 8.0462 13.37377 38.19502 37.61598
   D               0         0          0           0        0         0     0   100
                Ten Year Transition Probabilities Based On Cohort Approach
                   Using Historical Credit Ratings Data From 1986 to 2005
   From/To AAA       AA        A           BBB        BB       B         CCC   D
   AAA     54.88218 31.36801 9.830473 2.898558 0.749521 0.119689 0.013522 0.138051
   AA      10.07438 55.07772 24.3688 7.618646 1.943656 0.355796 0.041533 0.519475
   A       1.998195 16.19584 52.84186 21.09709 5.502486 1.23296 0.155925 0.975646
   BBB      0.58174 5.167537 25.63513 45.67485 15.57847 4.059124 0.610572 2.692578
   BB      0.313235 2.219682 10.16596 27.04901 39.09302 12.08884 2.00598 7.064282
   B       0.086901 0.668082 3.554979 12.34532 28.07138 30.00972 6.47848 18.78514
   CCC     0.033936 0.277624 1.537531 4.74466 11.28951 12.86993 15.6156 53.6312
   D               0         0          0           0        0         0     0   100




                                                        Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
Hazard Rate Method
   Incorporates within period transitions
    ◦ Calculate generator matrix 
    ◦ Let Nij = # of obligors in cohort i that moved to
      grade j
    ◦ Let Yi (s) = # of obligors rated i at time s
                      t
    ◦ Let ij= Nij / ∫ Yi(s) ds for i ≠j
                       t0

    ◦ Let ii= -          ij
                     i≠j

    ◦ T-year migration P(T)
                                            k k
      P(T) = exp( T) =                  [ T ] / k!
                                     k=0

                                             Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
Hazard Rate Portfolio Results on
Hypothetical Credit Data
             One Year Transition Probabilities Based On Hazard Rate Approach
                   Using Historical Credit Ratings Data From 1986 to 2005
  From/To AAA       AA         A          BBB        BB       B          CCC   D
  AAA      91.48377 7.143391 1.025835 0.261321 0.080607 0.002547 0.00015 0.002381
  AA        2.39916 91.58535 4.966863 0.80533 0.196159 0.007226 0.000435 0.039473
  A        0.196455 3.394196 90.40769 5.318108 0.577465 0.058286 0.002858 0.044939
  BBB      0.043742 0.357067 6.251844 88.62991 3.613714 0.683256 0.073595 0.346873
  BB       0.055308 0.27961 1.156373 8.904006 84.94655 3.559837 0.14485 0.953468
  B        0.003317 0.020408 0.310894 1.655158 9.166305 83.65436 2.321998 2.867557
  CCC        0.0012 0.006633 0.05653 0.98391 3.376531 6.418202 80.43506 8.72193
  D               0         0          0           0        0          0     0   100
             One Year Transition Probabilities Based On Hazard Rate Approach
                   Using Historical Credit Ratings Data From 1996 to 2005
  From/To AAA       AA         A          BBB        BB       B          CCC   D
  AAA      91.48377 7.143391 1.025835 0.261321 0.080607 0.002547 0.00015 0.002381
  AA        2.39916 91.58535 4.966863 0.80533 0.196159 0.007226 0.000435 0.039473
  A        0.196455 3.394196 90.40769 5.318108 0.577465 0.058286 0.002858 0.044939
  BBB      0.043742 0.357067 6.251844 88.62991 3.613714 0.683256 0.073595 0.346873
  BB       0.055308 0.27961 1.156373 8.904006 84.94655 3.559837 0.14485 0.953468
  B        0.003317 0.020408 0.310894 1.655158 9.166305 83.65436 2.321998 2.867557
  CCC        0.0012 0.006633 0.05653 0.98391 3.376531 6.418202 80.43506 8.72193
  D               0         0          0           0        0          0     0   100




                                                           Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
Hazard Rate Portfolio Results
5Yr & 10 Yr Migration
             Five Year Transition Probabilities Based On Hazard Rate Approach
                    Using Historical Credit Ratings Data From 1986 to 2005
  From/To AAA        AA         A          BBB        BB        B         CCC     D
  AAA      73.38483 20.65001 4.454501 1.149504 0.28702 0.032235 0.003147 0.03875
  AA       6.550769 72.95027 15.67757 3.639123 0.836047 0.107379 0.010417 0.228424
  A        0.881035 10.75132 70.0775 14.47197 2.857795 0.516373 0.049304            0.3947
  BBB       0.20045 2.032838 18.31537 64.33316 11.35115 2.289411 0.285357 1.192264
  BB       0.126529 0.77568 4.776965 20.6913 58.97102 9.928518 1.223181 3.506811
  B        0.025236 0.170192 1.319722 6.304139 23.7213 52.30527 6.173526 9.980614
  CCC      0.006923 0.046348 0.376048 2.167411           7.2824 13.67692 39.42811 37.01584
  D                0         0          0           0         0         0       0      100
              Ten Year Transition Probabilities Based On Hazard Rate Approach
                    Using Historical Credit Ratings Data From 1986 to 2005
  From/To AAA        AA         A          BBB        BB        B         CCC     D
  AAA      55.24799 30.72278 9.852635 3.040695 0.81819 0.140936 0.016679 0.160091
  AA        9.73258 56.33635       23.423 7.520052 2.009072 0.385311 0.046882 0.546757
  A        2.001007 15.87657 53.62746 20.47819 5.549173 1.265583 0.163269 1.038746
  BBB      0.585547 4.893365 25.51896 46.61364 15.10129 3.933185 0.585521 2.768485
  BB       0.304434 2.001088 10.21716 26.88666 39.71213 11.71463 1.878023 7.285881
  B        0.097573 0.675289 3.953918 12.59257 27.60057 30.70927 5.971997 18.39881
  CCC       0.03117 0.21777 1.344712 4.674156 10.66734 13.32095 16.48556 53.25834
  D                0         0          0           0         0         0       0      100




                                                               Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
Default Probability from Empirical Data
for Cohort & Hazard Rate Methods
                             Default Probabilities Based On Cohort Approach
                          Using Historical Credit Ratings Data From 1986 to 2005
From/To 1Yr      2Yr       3Yr        4Yr        5Yr       6Yr       7Yr        8Yr   9Yr      10Yr
AAA      0.001498 0.005996 0.013517 0.024101 0.037807 0.054708 0.074885 0.098427 0.12543 0.155991
AA       0.040788 0.083544 0.128718 0.176724 0.227944 0.282727 0.341385 0.404199 0.471415 0.543248
A        0.059614 0.128384 0.206552 0.294276 0.391638 0.498653 0.615271 0.741389 0.876854 1.021472
BBB      0.202292 0.423177 0.661822 0.917261 1.188434 1.474216 1.773451 2.084972 2.407621 2.740265
BB       0.619709 1.271857 1.950739 2.650864 3.367084 4.09468 4.829397 5.567462 6.305568 7.040864
B        2.018484 4.050252 6.063012 8.033479 9.945363 11.78777 13.55391 15.24014 16.84515 18.36934
CCC      9.629118 17.78827 24.71842 30.61973 35.65858 39.97344 43.67962 46.87324 49.63454 52.03053
                          Default Probabilities Based On Hazard Rate Approach
                          Using Historical Credit Ratings Data From 1986 to 2005
From/To 1Yr      2Yr       3Yr        4Yr        5Yr       6Yr       7Yr        8Yr   9Yr      10Yr
AAA      0.001535 0.006144 0.01385 0.024698 0.03875 0.056084 0.076787 0.100955 0.128688 0.160091
AA       0.040797 0.083582 0.128829 0.176975 0.228424 0.283542 0.342658 0.406067 0.474026 0.546757
A        0.059362 0.128286 0.207046 0.295821         0.3947 0.503696 0.622747 0.751731 0.890472 1.038746
BBB      0.200529 0.421073 0.660641 0.91811 1.192264 1.481835 1.785528 2.102046 2.430113 2.768485
BB       0.649443 1.330547 2.03753 2.764734 3.506811 4.258847 5.016422 5.775631 6.533084 7.285881
B        2.014358 4.052683 6.076586 8.058813 9.980614 11.8297 13.59863 15.28358 16.88339 18.39881
CCC      10.17111 18.6966 25.86297 31.90512 37.01584 41.35351 45.04838 48.20775 50.92006 53.25834




                                                                 Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
Capital Requirement for Hypothetical SME Portfolio




                                 Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
Capital Requirement for Hypothetical SME Portfolio




                                 Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
Required Capital Levels for SME Exposures
                       Required Capital By SME Size Factor Level 10YR Maturity
                                            5MM Euro



                                                                                               0.30




            0.30
                                                                                               0.25

            0.25


            0.20
                                                                                               0.20
   Req'd Capital
             0.15


             0.10                                                                              0.15


             0.05


                                                                                               0.10


                    0.5
                      0.4
                        0.3
                                                                                               0.05
                         0.2                                             0.1
         Probability Default                                       0.2
                             0.1                           0.3
                                                   0.4
                                            0.5
                                      0.6

                                                  Loss Given Default
                                                                                               0.00



                                             Kriebelt 2011

                                                                               Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
Required Capital Levels for SME Exposures
                      Required Capital By SME Size Factor Level 10YR Maturity
                                           20MM Euro
                                                                                               0.35




                                                                                               0.30



           0.30

                                                                                               0.25
           0.25


            0.20
   Req'd Capital                                                                               0.20
            0.15


            0.10
                                                                                               0.15

            0.05



                                                                                               0.10

                   0.5
                     0.4
                       0.3
                        0.2                                              0.1                   0.05
        Probability Default                                        0.2
                            0.1                            0.3
                                                   0.4
                                            0.5
                                     0.6

                                                  Loss Given Default
                                                                                               0.00



                                             Kriebelt 2011

                                                                               Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
Required Capital Levels for SME Exposures
                       Required Capital By SME Size Factor Level 10YR Maturity
                                            50MM Euro
                                                                                                0.40




                                                                                                0.35




                                                                                                0.30
             0.3


                                                                                                0.25

   Req'd Capital
              0.2


                                                                                                0.20

              0.1


                                                                                                0.15




                    0.5                                                                         0.10
                      0.4
                        0.3
                         0.2                                              0.1
         Probability Default                                        0.2                         0.05
                             0.1                            0.3
                                                    0.4
                                             0.5
                                      0.6

                                                   Loss Given Default
                                                                                                0.00



                                              Kriebelt 2011

                                                                                Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
Required Capital Levels for SME Exposures
                        Required Capital SME 10MM Euros Maturity 10Yrs
              lgd_0.1 lgd_0.2 lgd_0.3 lgd_0.4 lgd_0.5 lgd_0.6 lgd_0.7
     pd_0.1       0.039    0.046     0.047     0.044   0.040      0.034 0.078
     pd_0.2       0.091    0.093     0.089     0.080   0.069      0.117 0.137
     pd_0.3       0.140    0.133     0.120     0.103   0.157      0.183 0.186
     pd_0.4       0.177    0.160     0.137     0.196   0.228      0.233 0.222
     pd_0.5       0.200    0.171     0.235     0.274   0.279      0.266 0.240
     pd_0.6       0.206    0.274     0.319     0.326   0.310      0.280 0.240
                        Required Capital SME 20MM Euros Maturity 10Yrs
              lgd_0.1 lgd_0.2 lgd_0.3 lgd_0.4 lgd_0.5 lgd_0.6 lgd_0.7
     pd_0.1       0.042    0.048     0.049     0.046   0.042      0.035 0.084
     pd_0.2       0.097    0.098     0.093     0.083   0.071      0.126 0.145
     pd_0.3       0.147    0.139     0.125     0.106   0.168      0.193 0.196
     pd_0.4       0.186    0.167     0.142     0.209   0.242      0.245 0.232
     pd_0.5       0.208    0.177     0.251     0.290   0.294      0.278 0.250
     pd_0.6       0.213    0.293     0.339     0.343   0.325      0.292 0.248
                        Required Capital SME 30MM Euros Maturity 10Yrs
              lgd_0.1 lgd_0.2 lgd_0.3 lgd_0.4 lgd_0.5 lgd_0.6 lgd_0.7
     pd_0.1       0.045    0.051     0.051     0.048   0.043      0.037 0.089
     pd_0.2       0.102    0.103     0.097     0.086   0.073      0.134 0.153
     pd_0.3       0.154    0.145     0.130     0.110   0.178      0.204 0.205
     pd_0.4       0.193    0.173     0.146     0.223   0.255      0.256 0.241
     pd_0.5       0.216    0.183     0.267     0.306   0.308      0.290 0.259
     pd_0.6       0.219    0.312     0.357     0.359   0.338      0.302 0.256


                                                     Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
Required Capital Levels for SME Exposures
                        Required Capital SME 40MM Euros Maturity 10Yrs
              lgd_0.1 lgd_0.2 lgd_0.3 lgd_0.4 lgd_0.5 lgd_0.6 lgd_0.7
     pd_0.1       0.047    0.054     0.053     0.050    0.045     0.038 0.094
     pd_0.2       0.107    0.107     0.100     0.089    0.075     0.142 0.161
     pd_0.3       0.160    0.150     0.134     0.113    0.189     0.214 0.214
     pd_0.4       0.200    0.178     0.150     0.236    0.268     0.267 0.250
     pd_0.5       0.223    0.188     0.283     0.321    0.321     0.300 0.267
     pd_0.6       0.225    0.330     0.375     0.374    0.350     0.312 0.263
                        Required Capital SME 50MM Euros Maturity 10Yrs
              lgd_0.1 lgd_0.2 lgd_0.3 lgd_0.4 lgd_0.5 lgd_0.6 lgd_0.7
     pd_0.1       0.050    0.056     0.056     0.052    0.046     0.038 0.099
     pd_0.2       0.112    0.111     0.103     0.092    0.077     0.149 0.168
     pd_0.3       0.167    0.155     0.138     0.115    0.199     0.224 0.222
     pd_0.4       0.207    0.183     0.154     0.249    0.280     0.278 0.259
     pd_0.5       0.229    0.192     0.298     0.336    0.333     0.310 0.275
     pd_0.6       0.231    0.348     0.391     0.389    0.362     0.321 0.269


      Generally, required capital increases over higher SME size ,with
      larger default probabilities and greater loss given default, however
      the parabolic functions determining the required capital
      incorporates higher probability of default lowers possibility of
      upgrade: result is a relatively lower required capital when pd and
      lgd closer to 1.0 with the pattern continuing over higher
      maturities as well.
                                                     Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
Required Capital Levels for SME Exposures
                                                                                                                                Required Capital By SME Size Factor Level 1YR Maturity
                            30MM Euro                                                          35MM Euro                                                           40MM Euro                                                           45MM Euro                                                           50MM Euro
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  0.30



        0.25                                                               0.25                                                                0.25                                                               0.25                                                                0.25


         0.20                                                               0.20                                                                0.20                                                               0.20                                                                0.20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  0.25
Req'd Capital
         0.15                                                      Req'd Capital
                                                                            0.15                                                       Req'd Capital
                                                                                                                                                0.15                                                      Req'd Capital
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   0.15                                                       Req'd Capital
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       0.15


         0.10                                                               0.10                                                                0.10                                                               0.10                                                                0.10


          0.05                                                               0.05                                                                0.05                                                               0.05                                                                0.05



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  0.20
             0.5                                                                0.5                                                                 0.5                                                                0.5                                                                 0.5
                0.4                                                                0.4                                                                 0.4                                                                0.4                                                                 0.4
                  0.3                                                                0.3                                                                 0.3                                                                0.3                                                                 0.3
                    0.2                                      0.1                       0.2                                      0.1                        0.2                                      0.1                       0.2                                       0.1                       0.2                                       0.1
     Probability Default                         0.3   0.2              Probability Default                         0.3   0.2               Probability Default                         0.3   0.2              Probability Default                          0.3   0.2              Probability Default                          0.3   0.2
                      0.1                 0.4                                            0.1                 0.4                                             0.1                 0.4                                             0.1                 0.4                                             0.1                 0.4
                                  0.5                                                                0.5                                                                 0.5                                                                 0.5                                                                 0.5
                            0.6                                                                0.6                                                                 0.6                                                                 0.6                                                                 0.6

                                        Loss Given Default                                                 Loss Given Default                                                  Loss Given Default                                                  Loss Given Default                                                  Loss Given Default

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  0.15
                            5MM Euro                                                           10MM Euro                                                           15MM Euro                                                           20MM Euro                                                           25MM Euro



        0.25                                                               0.25                                                                0.25                                                               0.25                                                                0.25                                                        0.10
         0.20                                                               0.20                                                                0.20                                                               0.20                                                                0.20


Req'd Capital
         0.15                                                      Req'd Capital
                                                                            0.15                                                       Req'd Capital
                                                                                                                                                0.15                                                      Req'd Capital
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   0.15                                                       Req'd Capital
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       0.15


         0.10                                                               0.10                                                                0.10                                                               0.10                                                                0.10


          0.05                                                               0.05                                                                0.05                                                               0.05                                                                0.05                                                      0.05


             0.5                                                                0.5                                                                 0.5                                                                0.5                                                                 0.5
                0.4                                                                0.4                                                                 0.4                                                                0.4                                                                 0.4
                  0.3                                                                0.3                                                                 0.3                                                                0.3                                                                 0.3
                    0.2                                      0.1                       0.2                                      0.1                        0.2                                      0.1                       0.2                                       0.1                       0.2                                       0.1
     Probability Default                               0.2              Probability Default                               0.2               Probability Default                               0.2              Probability Default                                0.2              Probability Default                                0.2
                      0.1                 0.4    0.3                                     0.1                 0.4    0.3                                      0.1                 0.4    0.3                                      0.1                 0.4    0.3                                      0.1                 0.4    0.3
                                  0.5                                                                0.5                                                                 0.5                                                                 0.5                                                                 0.5
                            0.6                                                                0.6                                                                 0.6                                                                 0.6                                                                 0.6                                    0.00
                                        Loss Given Default                                                 Loss Given Default                                                  Loss Given Default                                                  Loss Given Default                                                  Loss Given Default




                                                                                                                                                                         Kriebelt 2011




                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
Required Capital Levels for SME Exposures
                                                                                                                                Required Capital By SME Size Factor Level 5YR Maturity
                            30MM Euro                                                          35MM Euro                                                           40MM Euro                                                           45MM Euro                                                           50MM Euro                              0.35




         0.30                                                               0.30                                                                0.30                                                               0.30                                                                0.30


         0.25                                                               0.25                                                                0.25                                                               0.25                                                                0.25
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  0.30

         0.20                                                               0.20                                                                0.20                                                               0.20                                                                0.20
Req'd Capital                                                      Req'd Capital                                                       Req'd Capital                                                      Req'd Capital                                                       Req'd Capital
          0.15                                                              0.15                                                                0.15                                                               0.15                                                                0.15


          0.10                                                               0.10                                                                0.10                                                               0.10                                                                0.10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  0.25
          0.05                                                               0.05                                                                0.05                                                               0.05                                                                0.05




             0.5                                                                0.5                                                                 0.5                                                                0.5                                                                 0.5
                0.4                                                                0.4                                                                 0.4                                                                0.4                                                                 0.4
                  0.3                                                                0.3                                                                 0.3                                                                0.3                                                                 0.3
                    0.2                                                                0.2                                                                 0.2                                                                0.2                                                                 0.2
     Probability Default
                      0.1                 0.4
                                                 0.3   0.2   0.1
                                                                        Probability Default
                                                                                         0.1                 0.4
                                                                                                                    0.3   0.2   0.1
                                                                                                                                            Probability Default
                                                                                                                                                             0.1                 0.4
                                                                                                                                                                                        0.3   0.2   0.1
                                                                                                                                                                                                               Probability Default
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 0.1                 0.4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            0.3   0.2   0.1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Probability Default
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0.1                 0.4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                0.3   0.2   0.1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  0.20
                                  0.5                                                                0.5                                                                 0.5                                                                 0.5                                                                 0.5
                            0.6                                                                0.6                                                                 0.6                                                                 0.6                                                                 0.6

                                        Loss Given Default                                                 Loss Given Default                                                  Loss Given Default                                                  Loss Given Default                                                  Loss Given Default




                            5MM Euro                                                           10MM Euro                                                           15MM Euro                                                           20MM Euro                                                           25MM Euro
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  0.15


         0.30                                                               0.30                                                                0.30                                                               0.30                                                                0.30


         0.25                                                               0.25                                                                0.25                                                               0.25                                                                0.25
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  0.10
         0.20                                                               0.20                                                                0.20                                                               0.20                                                                0.20
Req'd Capital                                                      Req'd Capital                                                       Req'd Capital                                                      Req'd Capital                                                       Req'd Capital
          0.15                                                              0.15                                                                0.15                                                               0.15                                                                0.15


          0.10                                                               0.10                                                                0.10                                                               0.10                                                                0.10


          0.05                                                               0.05                                                                0.05                                                               0.05                                                                0.05
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  0.05

             0.5                                                                0.5                                                                 0.5                                                                0.5                                                                 0.5
                0.4                                                                0.4                                                                 0.4                                                                0.4                                                                 0.4
                  0.3                                                                0.3                                                                 0.3                                                                0.3                                                                 0.3
                    0.2                                      0.1                       0.2                                      0.1                        0.2                                      0.1                       0.2                                       0.1                       0.2                                       0.1
     Probability Default                               0.2              Probability Default                               0.2               Probability Default                               0.2              Probability Default                                0.2              Probability Default                                0.2
                      0.1                 0.4    0.3                                     0.1                 0.4    0.3                                      0.1                 0.4    0.3                                      0.1                 0.4    0.3                                      0.1                 0.4    0.3
                                  0.5                                                                0.5                                                                 0.5                                                                 0.5                                                                 0.5
                            0.6                                                                0.6                                                                 0.6                                                                 0.6                                                                 0.6                                    0.00
                                        Loss Given Default                                                 Loss Given Default                                                  Loss Given Default                                                  Loss Given Default                                                  Loss Given Default




                                                                                                                                                                         Kriebelt 2011




                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
Required Capital Levels for SME Exposures
                                                                                                                                Required Capital By SME Size Factor Level 10YR Maturity
                            30MM Euro                                                          35MM Euro                                                            40MM Euro                                                           45MM Euro                                                           50MM Euro
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   0.40




         0.3                                                                0.3                                                                  0.3                                                                0.3                                                                 0.3                                                        0.35

Req'd Capital
          0.2                                                      Req'd Capital
                                                                             0.2                                                        Req'd Capital
                                                                                                                                                  0.2                                                      Req'd Capital
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0.2                                                       Req'd Capital
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         0.2




          0.1                                                                0.1                                                                  0.1                                                                0.1                                                                 0.1                                                       0.30



             0.5                                                                0.5                                                                  0.5                                                                0.5                                                                 0.5
                0.4                                                                0.4                                                                  0.4                                                                0.4                                                                 0.4
                  0.3                                                                0.3                                                                  0.3                                                                0.3                                                                 0.3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   0.25
                    0.2                                      0.1                       0.2                                       0.1                        0.2                                      0.1                       0.2                                       0.1                       0.2                                       0.1
     Probability Default                         0.3   0.2              Probability Default                         0.3   0.2                Probability Default                         0.3   0.2              Probability Default                          0.3   0.2              Probability Default                          0.3   0.2
                      0.1                 0.4                                            0.1                 0.4                                              0.1                 0.4                                             0.1                 0.4                                             0.1                 0.4
                                  0.5                                                                0.5                                                                  0.5                                                                 0.5                                                                 0.5
                            0.6                                                                0.6                                                                  0.6                                                                 0.6                                                                 0.6

                                        Loss Given Default                                                 Loss Given Default                                                   Loss Given Default                                                  Loss Given Default                                                  Loss Given Default


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   0.20
                            5MM Euro                                                           10MM Euro                                                            15MM Euro                                                           20MM Euro                                                           25MM Euro


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   0.15

         0.3                                                                0.3                                                                  0.3                                                                0.3                                                                 0.3




Req'd Capital
          0.2                                                      Req'd Capital
                                                                             0.2                                                        Req'd Capital
                                                                                                                                                  0.2                                                      Req'd Capital
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0.2                                                       Req'd Capital
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         0.2                                                       0.10

          0.1                                                                0.1                                                                  0.1                                                                0.1                                                                 0.1




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   0.05
             0.5                                                                0.5                                                                  0.5                                                                0.5                                                                 0.5
                0.4                                                                0.4                                                                  0.4                                                                0.4                                                                 0.4
                  0.3                                                                0.3                                                                  0.3                                                                0.3                                                                 0.3
                    0.2                                      0.1                       0.2                                       0.1                        0.2                                      0.1                       0.2                                       0.1                       0.2                                       0.1
     Probability Default                               0.2              Probability Default                               0.2                Probability Default                               0.2              Probability Default                                0.2              Probability Default                                0.2
                      0.1                 0.4    0.3                                     0.1                 0.4    0.3                                       0.1                 0.4    0.3                                      0.1                 0.4    0.3                                      0.1                 0.4    0.3
                                  0.5                                                                0.5                                                                  0.5                                                                 0.5                                                                 0.5
                            0.6                                                                0.6                                                                  0.6                                                                 0.6                                                                 0.6                                    0.00
                                        Loss Given Default                                                 Loss Given Default                                                   Loss Given Default                                                  Loss Given Default                                                  Loss Given Default




                                                                                                                                                                          Kriebelt 2011




                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
Required Capital Levels for SME Exposures
                                                                                                                                  Required Capital By SME Size Factor Level 20YR Maturity
                            30MM Euro                                                            35MM Euro                                                            40MM Euro                                                           45MM Euro                                                           50MM Euro


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0.5
         0.5                                                                 0.5                                                                   0.5                                                                 0.5                                                                0.5



         0.4                                                                 0.4                                                                   0.4                                                                 0.4                                                                0.4



          0.3                                                                0.3                                                                    0.3                                                                 0.3                                                               0.3
Req'd Capital                                                       Req'd Capital                                                         Req'd Capital                                                       Req'd Capital                                                      Req'd Capital

          0.2                                                                 0.2                                                                   0.2                                                                 0.2                                                                0.2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0.4
          0.1                                                                 0.1                                                                   0.1                                                                 0.1                                                                0.1




             0.5                                                                 0.5                                                                   0.5                                                                 0.5                                                                0.5
                0.4                                                                 0.4                                                                   0.4                                                                 0.4                                                                0.4
                  0.3                                                                 0.3                                                                   0.3                                                                 0.3                                                                0.3
                    0.2                                       0.1                       0.2                                        0.1                        0.2                                       0.1                       0.2                                      0.1                       0.2                                       0.1
     Probability Default                         0.3    0.2              Probability Default                          0.3   0.2                Probability Default                          0.3   0.2              Probability Default                         0.3   0.2              Probability Default                          0.3   0.2
                      0.1                                                                  0.1                                                                  0.1                                                                 0.1                                                                 0.1
                            0.6
                                  0.5     0.4
                                                                                                 0.6
                                                                                                       0.5     0.4
                                                                                                                                                                      0.6
                                                                                                                                                                             0.5     0.4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          0.6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                0.5     0.4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              0.6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    0.5     0.4                      0.3
                                        Loss Given Default                                                   Loss Given Default                                                    Loss Given Default                                                 Loss Given Default                                                  Loss Given Default




                            5MM Euro                                                             10MM Euro                                                            15MM Euro                                                           20MM Euro                                                           25MM Euro


         0.5                                                                 0.5                                                                   0.5                                                                 0.5                                                                0.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0.2

         0.4                                                                 0.4                                                                   0.4                                                                 0.4                                                                0.4



          0.3                                                                0.3                                                                    0.3                                                                 0.3                                                               0.3
Req'd Capital                                                       Req'd Capital                                                         Req'd Capital                                                       Req'd Capital                                                      Req'd Capital

          0.2                                                                 0.2                                                                   0.2                                                                 0.2                                                                0.2

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0.1
          0.1                                                                 0.1                                                                   0.1                                                                 0.1                                                                0.1




             0.5                                                                 0.5                                                                   0.5                                                                 0.5                                                                0.5
                0.4                                                                 0.4                                                                   0.4                                                                 0.4                                                                0.4
                  0.3                                                                 0.3                                                                   0.3                                                                 0.3                                                                0.3
                    0.2                                       0.1                       0.2                                        0.1                        0.2                                       0.1                       0.2                                      0.1                       0.2                                       0.1
     Probability Default                                0.2              Probability Default                                0.2                Probability Default                                0.2              Probability Default                               0.2              Probability Default                                0.2
                      0.1                 0.4    0.3                                       0.1                 0.4    0.3                                       0.1                  0.4    0.3                                     0.1                 0.4    0.3                                      0.1                 0.4    0.3
                                  0.5                                                                  0.5                                                                   0.5                                                                0.5                                                                 0.5
                            0.6                                                                  0.6                                                                  0.6                                                                 0.6                                                                 0.6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0.0
                                        Loss Given Default                                                   Loss Given Default                                                    Loss Given Default                                                 Loss Given Default                                                  Loss Given Default




                                                                                                                                                                            Kriebelt 2011




                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
Risk-Weighted Assets of Other Retail Exposures:
Evaluating Exposures Not In Default

   Based on the Section 330 of the Basel II Committee
    Notes - Rules for Risk Weighted Assets in this Class Are
    Determined As Follows:
    Correlation = Correlation = 0.03 * (1-e(-35*pd))/(1-e(-35))+
    0.16 * [1-(1-e(-35*pd)) / (1-e(-35))]
    Capital Requirement = [LGD * N(1-R)^-0.5 * G(PD) +
    (R/(1-R))^0.5 * G(0.999)] – PD * LGD]
    Risk Weighted Assets = 12.5 *Capital Requirement*EAD




                                      Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
Risk-Weighted Assets of Other Retail Exposures :


   Required Capital increases for with LGD and is
    parabolic with respect to PD, but is smaller than for
    both mortgage and revolving retail lines exposures
   No maturity adjustment
   Correlation is dependent on default probability
   Response surface and grid illustrations compare the
    required capital requirements




                                     Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
Capital Requirement for Hypothetical Other Retail
Portfolio




                                 Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
Risk-Weighted Assets of Other Retail Exposures
                                                     Required Capital For Other Retail Exposures
                                                                                                                 0.20




                                                                                                                 0.15
                      0.15




             Req'd Capital
                       0.10



                                                                                                                 0.10

                       0.05




                             0.8
                                                                                                                 0.05
                                   0.6

                                         0.4
                                                                                              0.2
                   Probability Default                                               0.4
                                               0.2                     0.6
                                                             0.8

                                                                         Loss Given Default

                                                                                                                 0.00


                                                                     Kriebelt 2011


                                                Required Capital Other Retail Exposures
          lgd_0.1 lgd_0.2                  lgd_0.3 lgd_0.4 lgd_0.5 lgd_0.6 lgd_0.7 lgd_0.8 lgd_0.9
 pd_0.1       0.013   0.018                    0.020    0.021      0.021      0.019     0.016 0.012 0.007
 pd_0.2       0.027   0.036                    0.041    0.043      0.041      0.038     0.032 0.024 0.013
 pd_0.3       0.040   0.053                    0.061    0.064      0.062      0.057     0.048 0.036 0.020
 pd_0.4       0.054   0.071                    0.082    0.085      0.083      0.075     0.064 0.048 0.027
 pd_0.5       0.067   0.089                    0.102    0.106      0.103      0.094     0.080 0.059 0.034
 pd_0.6       0.081   0.107                    0.123    0.128      0.124      0.113     0.095 0.071 0.040
 pd_0.7       0.094   0.125                    0.143    0.149      0.145      0.132     0.111 0.083 0.047
 pd_0.8       0.107   0.143                    0.164    0.170      0.165      0.151     0.127 0.095 0.054
 pd_0.9       0.121   0.160                    0.184    0.191      0.186      0.170     0.143 0.107 0.061
                                                                                              Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
Risk-Weighted Assets of Other Retail Exposures
                                   Required Capital For Other Retail Exposures

                                                                                                       0.20




                                                                                                       0.15
              0.15




               0.10
     Req'd Capital


                                                                                                       0.10

               0.05




                     0.8                                                                               0.05

                       0.6

                             0.4

           Probability Default
                             0.2                                               0.2
                                                                  0.4
                                                    0.6
                                          0.8

                                                          Loss Given Default
                                                                                                       0.00




                                                   Kriebelt 2011
                                                                                     Maggie Kriebelt October 2011

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Basel II Risk Weighted Assets 2011

  • 1. Capital Requirements Under Basel II: Evaluation Of Capital Requirement to Default Probability, Loss Given Default and Maturity for SME and Other Retail Asset Classes Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
  • 2. Minimum Requirements for Internal Rating Systems for Basel II  Minimum 7 rating classes for non-defaulted borrowers  No excessive concentrations in single rating classes  Differentiation of risk amongst the rating classes  Plausible, intuitive and current input data  All relevant information must be taken into account  No preference for model methods Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
  • 3. Risk-Weighted Assets for Small & Medium Sized Entities: Evaluating Exposures Not In Default  Based on the Section 273 of the Basel II Committee Notes - Rules for Risk Weighted Assets in this Class Are Determined As Follows: Correlation = 0.12 * (1-e(-50*pd))/(1-e(-50))+ 0.24 * [1-(1- e(-50*pd)) / (1-e(-50))] – 0.04*(1-(S-5)/45) Maturity Adjustment = (0.11852 – 0.05478*ln(pd))^2 Capital Requirement = [LGD * N(1-R)^-0.5 * G(PD) + (R/(1-R))^0.5 * G(0.999)] – PD * LGD] *(1-1.5*b)^-1 *(1+(M-2.5)*b) Risk Weighted Assets = 12.5 *Capital Requirement*EAD Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
  • 4. Risk-Weighted Assets for SME Exposures: Evaluating Exposures Not In Default  Risk Weighted Assets for entities with sales under 50 million Euros are likewise stressed at the alpha 0.1% level to obtain a 99.9% confidence that realizations of default on the portfolio for each exposure is better than the stress scenario  Maturity adjustment remains the same  Correlation is dependent on Probability of Default and adjustment for firm size is incorporated  Required Capital increases for larger SME’s and is more pronounced at higher maturities as can be seen from Required Capital surfaces at 1Yr, 5Yr, 10Yr and 20Yr: response surface and grid illustrations follow Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
  • 5. Determining Probability of Default ◦ Migration Matrices to calculate PD using Cohort Method or Hazard Rate Method from historical credit ratings Sample Rating Data Obligor Date Rating 12550 17-Nov-84 AA 12550 1-Feb-00 BBB 12550 21-Mar-04 BB 14770 2-Sep-82 CCC 14770 30-Dec-94 B 14770 14-Apr-96 BB 13426 30-Sep-82 B 13426 3-May-96 BB Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
  • 6. Cohort Method  Uses obligors that have a rating at beginning of evaluation period creating a transition matrix with frequencies of rating at end of period ◦ Let Ni,t = # of obligors in category i at beginning period t ◦ Let Nij,t = # of obligors in cohort i that moved to grade j at end of period t ◦ Transition frequency in period t  pˆij,t = Nij,t / Ni,t Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
  • 7. Cohort Method ◦ Transition frequency averaged over all periods  pˆij,t=  Ni,t * pˆij,t /  Ni,t t t ◦ Combining equations and reducing yields the obligor weighted average as the aggregate of the transitions from i to j divided by the total obligors in cohort i at beginning of period  pˆij,t=  Ni,t * [Nij,t / Ni,t] /  Ni,t t t  pˆij,t=  Nij,t /  Ni,t t t  pˆij,t= Nij / Ni Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
  • 8. Cohort Method Portfolio Results on Hypothetical Credit Data One Year Transition Probabilities Based On Cohort Approach Using Historical Credit Ratings Data From 1986 to 2005 From/To AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC D AAA 93.70606 5.523937 0.602611 0.133914 0.033478 0 0 0 AA 1.778222 93.12687 4.355644 0.579421 0.11988 0 0 0.03996 A 0.110274 2.940636 92.17056 4.208785 0.459474 0.055137 0 0.055137 BBB 0.021418 0.257014 5.225958 90.27629 3.512529 0.471193 0.042836 0.192761 BB 0.023137 0.161962 0.624711 6.362795 88.59324 3.378066 0.254512 0.601573 B 0 0 0.041632 0.749376 7.993339 86.5945 2.622814 1.998335 CCC 0 0 0.095057 0.285171 1.996198 5.038023 82.12928 10.45627 D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 One Year Transition Probabilities Based On Cohort Approach Using Historical Credit Ratings Data From 1996 to 2005 From/To AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC D AAA 91.27219 7.544379 0.887574 0.221893 0.073964 0 0 0 AA 2.573808 91.06737 5.412566 0.719152 0.189251 0 0 0.03785 A 0.167729 3.555854 90.00335 5.73633 0.469641 0.033546 0 0.033546 BBB 0.037566 0.413223 6.423742 88.12923 3.869271 0.713749 0.075131 0.338092 BB 0.054915 0.384404 1.043383 9.2257 84.40417 3.953871 0.10983 0.823723 B 0 0 0.120773 1.449275 9.903382 82.72947 2.777778 3.019324 CCC 0 0 0.429185 0.858369 3.433476 6.437768 79.39914 9.44206 D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
  • 9. Cohort Method Portfolio Results 5Yr & 10 Yr Migration Five Year Transition Probabilities Based On Cohort Approach Using Historical Credit Ratings Data From 1986 to 2005 From/To AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC D AAA 73.06543 21.29285 4.284603 1.046794 0.254769 0.023495 0.002075 0.029982 AA 6.847254 71.90163 16.54954 3.600975 0.786187 0.087365 0.007538 0.219519 A 0.847467 11.09027 69.29591 15.13993 2.739804 0.478313 0.040981 0.367323 BBB 0.189815 2.181287 18.61027 63.33793 11.89928 2.346053 0.285521 1.149843 BB 0.128347 0.919461 4.680541 21.11996 58.13473 10.40889 1.276009 3.332054 B 0.019635 0.154885 1.018553 5.993631 24.44986 51.382 6.864434 10.11701 CCC 0.006867 0.064796 0.57572 2.121639 8.0462 13.37377 38.19502 37.61598 D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 Ten Year Transition Probabilities Based On Cohort Approach Using Historical Credit Ratings Data From 1986 to 2005 From/To AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC D AAA 54.88218 31.36801 9.830473 2.898558 0.749521 0.119689 0.013522 0.138051 AA 10.07438 55.07772 24.3688 7.618646 1.943656 0.355796 0.041533 0.519475 A 1.998195 16.19584 52.84186 21.09709 5.502486 1.23296 0.155925 0.975646 BBB 0.58174 5.167537 25.63513 45.67485 15.57847 4.059124 0.610572 2.692578 BB 0.313235 2.219682 10.16596 27.04901 39.09302 12.08884 2.00598 7.064282 B 0.086901 0.668082 3.554979 12.34532 28.07138 30.00972 6.47848 18.78514 CCC 0.033936 0.277624 1.537531 4.74466 11.28951 12.86993 15.6156 53.6312 D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
  • 10. Hazard Rate Method  Incorporates within period transitions ◦ Calculate generator matrix  ◦ Let Nij = # of obligors in cohort i that moved to grade j ◦ Let Yi (s) = # of obligors rated i at time s t ◦ Let ij= Nij / ∫ Yi(s) ds for i ≠j t0 ◦ Let ii= -  ij i≠j ◦ T-year migration P(T)  k k  P(T) = exp( T) =  [ T ] / k! k=0 Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
  • 11. Hazard Rate Portfolio Results on Hypothetical Credit Data One Year Transition Probabilities Based On Hazard Rate Approach Using Historical Credit Ratings Data From 1986 to 2005 From/To AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC D AAA 91.48377 7.143391 1.025835 0.261321 0.080607 0.002547 0.00015 0.002381 AA 2.39916 91.58535 4.966863 0.80533 0.196159 0.007226 0.000435 0.039473 A 0.196455 3.394196 90.40769 5.318108 0.577465 0.058286 0.002858 0.044939 BBB 0.043742 0.357067 6.251844 88.62991 3.613714 0.683256 0.073595 0.346873 BB 0.055308 0.27961 1.156373 8.904006 84.94655 3.559837 0.14485 0.953468 B 0.003317 0.020408 0.310894 1.655158 9.166305 83.65436 2.321998 2.867557 CCC 0.0012 0.006633 0.05653 0.98391 3.376531 6.418202 80.43506 8.72193 D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 One Year Transition Probabilities Based On Hazard Rate Approach Using Historical Credit Ratings Data From 1996 to 2005 From/To AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC D AAA 91.48377 7.143391 1.025835 0.261321 0.080607 0.002547 0.00015 0.002381 AA 2.39916 91.58535 4.966863 0.80533 0.196159 0.007226 0.000435 0.039473 A 0.196455 3.394196 90.40769 5.318108 0.577465 0.058286 0.002858 0.044939 BBB 0.043742 0.357067 6.251844 88.62991 3.613714 0.683256 0.073595 0.346873 BB 0.055308 0.27961 1.156373 8.904006 84.94655 3.559837 0.14485 0.953468 B 0.003317 0.020408 0.310894 1.655158 9.166305 83.65436 2.321998 2.867557 CCC 0.0012 0.006633 0.05653 0.98391 3.376531 6.418202 80.43506 8.72193 D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
  • 12. Hazard Rate Portfolio Results 5Yr & 10 Yr Migration Five Year Transition Probabilities Based On Hazard Rate Approach Using Historical Credit Ratings Data From 1986 to 2005 From/To AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC D AAA 73.38483 20.65001 4.454501 1.149504 0.28702 0.032235 0.003147 0.03875 AA 6.550769 72.95027 15.67757 3.639123 0.836047 0.107379 0.010417 0.228424 A 0.881035 10.75132 70.0775 14.47197 2.857795 0.516373 0.049304 0.3947 BBB 0.20045 2.032838 18.31537 64.33316 11.35115 2.289411 0.285357 1.192264 BB 0.126529 0.77568 4.776965 20.6913 58.97102 9.928518 1.223181 3.506811 B 0.025236 0.170192 1.319722 6.304139 23.7213 52.30527 6.173526 9.980614 CCC 0.006923 0.046348 0.376048 2.167411 7.2824 13.67692 39.42811 37.01584 D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 Ten Year Transition Probabilities Based On Hazard Rate Approach Using Historical Credit Ratings Data From 1986 to 2005 From/To AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC D AAA 55.24799 30.72278 9.852635 3.040695 0.81819 0.140936 0.016679 0.160091 AA 9.73258 56.33635 23.423 7.520052 2.009072 0.385311 0.046882 0.546757 A 2.001007 15.87657 53.62746 20.47819 5.549173 1.265583 0.163269 1.038746 BBB 0.585547 4.893365 25.51896 46.61364 15.10129 3.933185 0.585521 2.768485 BB 0.304434 2.001088 10.21716 26.88666 39.71213 11.71463 1.878023 7.285881 B 0.097573 0.675289 3.953918 12.59257 27.60057 30.70927 5.971997 18.39881 CCC 0.03117 0.21777 1.344712 4.674156 10.66734 13.32095 16.48556 53.25834 D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
  • 13. Default Probability from Empirical Data for Cohort & Hazard Rate Methods Default Probabilities Based On Cohort Approach Using Historical Credit Ratings Data From 1986 to 2005 From/To 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10Yr AAA 0.001498 0.005996 0.013517 0.024101 0.037807 0.054708 0.074885 0.098427 0.12543 0.155991 AA 0.040788 0.083544 0.128718 0.176724 0.227944 0.282727 0.341385 0.404199 0.471415 0.543248 A 0.059614 0.128384 0.206552 0.294276 0.391638 0.498653 0.615271 0.741389 0.876854 1.021472 BBB 0.202292 0.423177 0.661822 0.917261 1.188434 1.474216 1.773451 2.084972 2.407621 2.740265 BB 0.619709 1.271857 1.950739 2.650864 3.367084 4.09468 4.829397 5.567462 6.305568 7.040864 B 2.018484 4.050252 6.063012 8.033479 9.945363 11.78777 13.55391 15.24014 16.84515 18.36934 CCC 9.629118 17.78827 24.71842 30.61973 35.65858 39.97344 43.67962 46.87324 49.63454 52.03053 Default Probabilities Based On Hazard Rate Approach Using Historical Credit Ratings Data From 1986 to 2005 From/To 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10Yr AAA 0.001535 0.006144 0.01385 0.024698 0.03875 0.056084 0.076787 0.100955 0.128688 0.160091 AA 0.040797 0.083582 0.128829 0.176975 0.228424 0.283542 0.342658 0.406067 0.474026 0.546757 A 0.059362 0.128286 0.207046 0.295821 0.3947 0.503696 0.622747 0.751731 0.890472 1.038746 BBB 0.200529 0.421073 0.660641 0.91811 1.192264 1.481835 1.785528 2.102046 2.430113 2.768485 BB 0.649443 1.330547 2.03753 2.764734 3.506811 4.258847 5.016422 5.775631 6.533084 7.285881 B 2.014358 4.052683 6.076586 8.058813 9.980614 11.8297 13.59863 15.28358 16.88339 18.39881 CCC 10.17111 18.6966 25.86297 31.90512 37.01584 41.35351 45.04838 48.20775 50.92006 53.25834 Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
  • 14. Capital Requirement for Hypothetical SME Portfolio Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
  • 15. Capital Requirement for Hypothetical SME Portfolio Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
  • 16. Required Capital Levels for SME Exposures Required Capital By SME Size Factor Level 10YR Maturity 5MM Euro 0.30 0.30 0.25 0.25 0.20 0.20 Req'd Capital 0.15 0.10 0.15 0.05 0.10 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.05 0.2 0.1 Probability Default 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Loss Given Default 0.00 Kriebelt 2011 Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
  • 17. Required Capital Levels for SME Exposures Required Capital By SME Size Factor Level 10YR Maturity 20MM Euro 0.35 0.30 0.30 0.25 0.25 0.20 Req'd Capital 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.15 0.05 0.10 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.05 Probability Default 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Loss Given Default 0.00 Kriebelt 2011 Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
  • 18. Required Capital Levels for SME Exposures Required Capital By SME Size Factor Level 10YR Maturity 50MM Euro 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.3 0.25 Req'd Capital 0.2 0.20 0.1 0.15 0.5 0.10 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 Probability Default 0.2 0.05 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Loss Given Default 0.00 Kriebelt 2011 Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
  • 19. Required Capital Levels for SME Exposures Required Capital SME 10MM Euros Maturity 10Yrs lgd_0.1 lgd_0.2 lgd_0.3 lgd_0.4 lgd_0.5 lgd_0.6 lgd_0.7 pd_0.1 0.039 0.046 0.047 0.044 0.040 0.034 0.078 pd_0.2 0.091 0.093 0.089 0.080 0.069 0.117 0.137 pd_0.3 0.140 0.133 0.120 0.103 0.157 0.183 0.186 pd_0.4 0.177 0.160 0.137 0.196 0.228 0.233 0.222 pd_0.5 0.200 0.171 0.235 0.274 0.279 0.266 0.240 pd_0.6 0.206 0.274 0.319 0.326 0.310 0.280 0.240 Required Capital SME 20MM Euros Maturity 10Yrs lgd_0.1 lgd_0.2 lgd_0.3 lgd_0.4 lgd_0.5 lgd_0.6 lgd_0.7 pd_0.1 0.042 0.048 0.049 0.046 0.042 0.035 0.084 pd_0.2 0.097 0.098 0.093 0.083 0.071 0.126 0.145 pd_0.3 0.147 0.139 0.125 0.106 0.168 0.193 0.196 pd_0.4 0.186 0.167 0.142 0.209 0.242 0.245 0.232 pd_0.5 0.208 0.177 0.251 0.290 0.294 0.278 0.250 pd_0.6 0.213 0.293 0.339 0.343 0.325 0.292 0.248 Required Capital SME 30MM Euros Maturity 10Yrs lgd_0.1 lgd_0.2 lgd_0.3 lgd_0.4 lgd_0.5 lgd_0.6 lgd_0.7 pd_0.1 0.045 0.051 0.051 0.048 0.043 0.037 0.089 pd_0.2 0.102 0.103 0.097 0.086 0.073 0.134 0.153 pd_0.3 0.154 0.145 0.130 0.110 0.178 0.204 0.205 pd_0.4 0.193 0.173 0.146 0.223 0.255 0.256 0.241 pd_0.5 0.216 0.183 0.267 0.306 0.308 0.290 0.259 pd_0.6 0.219 0.312 0.357 0.359 0.338 0.302 0.256 Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
  • 20. Required Capital Levels for SME Exposures Required Capital SME 40MM Euros Maturity 10Yrs lgd_0.1 lgd_0.2 lgd_0.3 lgd_0.4 lgd_0.5 lgd_0.6 lgd_0.7 pd_0.1 0.047 0.054 0.053 0.050 0.045 0.038 0.094 pd_0.2 0.107 0.107 0.100 0.089 0.075 0.142 0.161 pd_0.3 0.160 0.150 0.134 0.113 0.189 0.214 0.214 pd_0.4 0.200 0.178 0.150 0.236 0.268 0.267 0.250 pd_0.5 0.223 0.188 0.283 0.321 0.321 0.300 0.267 pd_0.6 0.225 0.330 0.375 0.374 0.350 0.312 0.263 Required Capital SME 50MM Euros Maturity 10Yrs lgd_0.1 lgd_0.2 lgd_0.3 lgd_0.4 lgd_0.5 lgd_0.6 lgd_0.7 pd_0.1 0.050 0.056 0.056 0.052 0.046 0.038 0.099 pd_0.2 0.112 0.111 0.103 0.092 0.077 0.149 0.168 pd_0.3 0.167 0.155 0.138 0.115 0.199 0.224 0.222 pd_0.4 0.207 0.183 0.154 0.249 0.280 0.278 0.259 pd_0.5 0.229 0.192 0.298 0.336 0.333 0.310 0.275 pd_0.6 0.231 0.348 0.391 0.389 0.362 0.321 0.269 Generally, required capital increases over higher SME size ,with larger default probabilities and greater loss given default, however the parabolic functions determining the required capital incorporates higher probability of default lowers possibility of upgrade: result is a relatively lower required capital when pd and lgd closer to 1.0 with the pattern continuing over higher maturities as well. Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
  • 21. Required Capital Levels for SME Exposures Required Capital By SME Size Factor Level 1YR Maturity 30MM Euro 35MM Euro 40MM Euro 45MM Euro 50MM Euro 0.30 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.25 Req'd Capital 0.15 Req'd Capital 0.15 Req'd Capital 0.15 Req'd Capital 0.15 Req'd Capital 0.15 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.20 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 Probability Default 0.3 0.2 Probability Default 0.3 0.2 Probability Default 0.3 0.2 Probability Default 0.3 0.2 Probability Default 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Loss Given Default Loss Given Default Loss Given Default Loss Given Default Loss Given Default 0.15 5MM Euro 10MM Euro 15MM Euro 20MM Euro 25MM Euro 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.10 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 Req'd Capital 0.15 Req'd Capital 0.15 Req'd Capital 0.15 Req'd Capital 0.15 Req'd Capital 0.15 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 Probability Default 0.2 Probability Default 0.2 Probability Default 0.2 Probability Default 0.2 Probability Default 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.00 Loss Given Default Loss Given Default Loss Given Default Loss Given Default Loss Given Default Kriebelt 2011 Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
  • 22. Required Capital Levels for SME Exposures Required Capital By SME Size Factor Level 5YR Maturity 30MM Euro 35MM Euro 40MM Euro 45MM Euro 50MM Euro 0.35 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.30 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 Req'd Capital Req'd Capital Req'd Capital Req'd Capital Req'd Capital 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Probability Default 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 Probability Default 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 Probability Default 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 Probability Default 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 Probability Default 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.20 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Loss Given Default Loss Given Default Loss Given Default Loss Given Default Loss Given Default 5MM Euro 10MM Euro 15MM Euro 20MM Euro 25MM Euro 0.15 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.10 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 Req'd Capital Req'd Capital Req'd Capital Req'd Capital Req'd Capital 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 Probability Default 0.2 Probability Default 0.2 Probability Default 0.2 Probability Default 0.2 Probability Default 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.00 Loss Given Default Loss Given Default Loss Given Default Loss Given Default Loss Given Default Kriebelt 2011 Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
  • 23. Required Capital Levels for SME Exposures Required Capital By SME Size Factor Level 10YR Maturity 30MM Euro 35MM Euro 40MM Euro 45MM Euro 50MM Euro 0.40 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.35 Req'd Capital 0.2 Req'd Capital 0.2 Req'd Capital 0.2 Req'd Capital 0.2 Req'd Capital 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.30 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 Probability Default 0.3 0.2 Probability Default 0.3 0.2 Probability Default 0.3 0.2 Probability Default 0.3 0.2 Probability Default 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Loss Given Default Loss Given Default Loss Given Default Loss Given Default Loss Given Default 0.20 5MM Euro 10MM Euro 15MM Euro 20MM Euro 25MM Euro 0.15 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Req'd Capital 0.2 Req'd Capital 0.2 Req'd Capital 0.2 Req'd Capital 0.2 Req'd Capital 0.2 0.10 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.05 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 Probability Default 0.2 Probability Default 0.2 Probability Default 0.2 Probability Default 0.2 Probability Default 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.00 Loss Given Default Loss Given Default Loss Given Default Loss Given Default Loss Given Default Kriebelt 2011 Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
  • 24. Required Capital Levels for SME Exposures Required Capital By SME Size Factor Level 20YR Maturity 30MM Euro 35MM Euro 40MM Euro 45MM Euro 50MM Euro 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Req'd Capital Req'd Capital Req'd Capital Req'd Capital Req'd Capital 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 Probability Default 0.3 0.2 Probability Default 0.3 0.2 Probability Default 0.3 0.2 Probability Default 0.3 0.2 Probability Default 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 Loss Given Default Loss Given Default Loss Given Default Loss Given Default Loss Given Default 5MM Euro 10MM Euro 15MM Euro 20MM Euro 25MM Euro 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Req'd Capital Req'd Capital Req'd Capital Req'd Capital Req'd Capital 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 Probability Default 0.2 Probability Default 0.2 Probability Default 0.2 Probability Default 0.2 Probability Default 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.0 Loss Given Default Loss Given Default Loss Given Default Loss Given Default Loss Given Default Kriebelt 2011 Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
  • 25. Risk-Weighted Assets of Other Retail Exposures: Evaluating Exposures Not In Default  Based on the Section 330 of the Basel II Committee Notes - Rules for Risk Weighted Assets in this Class Are Determined As Follows: Correlation = Correlation = 0.03 * (1-e(-35*pd))/(1-e(-35))+ 0.16 * [1-(1-e(-35*pd)) / (1-e(-35))] Capital Requirement = [LGD * N(1-R)^-0.5 * G(PD) + (R/(1-R))^0.5 * G(0.999)] – PD * LGD] Risk Weighted Assets = 12.5 *Capital Requirement*EAD Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
  • 26. Risk-Weighted Assets of Other Retail Exposures :  Required Capital increases for with LGD and is parabolic with respect to PD, but is smaller than for both mortgage and revolving retail lines exposures  No maturity adjustment  Correlation is dependent on default probability  Response surface and grid illustrations compare the required capital requirements Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
  • 27. Capital Requirement for Hypothetical Other Retail Portfolio Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
  • 28. Risk-Weighted Assets of Other Retail Exposures Required Capital For Other Retail Exposures 0.20 0.15 0.15 Req'd Capital 0.10 0.10 0.05 0.8 0.05 0.6 0.4 0.2 Probability Default 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.8 Loss Given Default 0.00 Kriebelt 2011 Required Capital Other Retail Exposures lgd_0.1 lgd_0.2 lgd_0.3 lgd_0.4 lgd_0.5 lgd_0.6 lgd_0.7 lgd_0.8 lgd_0.9 pd_0.1 0.013 0.018 0.020 0.021 0.021 0.019 0.016 0.012 0.007 pd_0.2 0.027 0.036 0.041 0.043 0.041 0.038 0.032 0.024 0.013 pd_0.3 0.040 0.053 0.061 0.064 0.062 0.057 0.048 0.036 0.020 pd_0.4 0.054 0.071 0.082 0.085 0.083 0.075 0.064 0.048 0.027 pd_0.5 0.067 0.089 0.102 0.106 0.103 0.094 0.080 0.059 0.034 pd_0.6 0.081 0.107 0.123 0.128 0.124 0.113 0.095 0.071 0.040 pd_0.7 0.094 0.125 0.143 0.149 0.145 0.132 0.111 0.083 0.047 pd_0.8 0.107 0.143 0.164 0.170 0.165 0.151 0.127 0.095 0.054 pd_0.9 0.121 0.160 0.184 0.191 0.186 0.170 0.143 0.107 0.061 Maggie Kriebelt October 2011
  • 29. Risk-Weighted Assets of Other Retail Exposures Required Capital For Other Retail Exposures 0.20 0.15 0.15 0.10 Req'd Capital 0.10 0.05 0.8 0.05 0.6 0.4 Probability Default 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Loss Given Default 0.00 Kriebelt 2011 Maggie Kriebelt October 2011