1. Foresight at the Estonian Development Fund
Kristjan Rebane
May 6, 2009

2. Preview into Topics today
1. Foresight
2. Development Fund
3. White Paper
4. EST_IT@2018

4. Why foresight?
Foresight is a
structured way to
dream about future
“Innovation is the ability of individuals, companies, and
entire nations to create their desired future” John Kao,
Innovation Nation, 2007

5. Why Government Foresight?
 Government is often obsessed by short-term and
‘reactive’ attitudes. It is affected by the pressure of
public opinion and the media who demand quick
solutions to problems.
 One of the greatest challenges for government is to
balance short-term pressures and long term
objectives. Many areas of public policy, such as
ageing, health, R&D, education, infrastructure, and
the environment, can only be addressed adequately
over the long term.

6. What is our understanding of the future?
 Future is something that happens as a result of global megatrends.
 Strategy proposition for a small country is therefore to
predict, detect and identify coming changes, be agile and
quick to react to them and through that adapt and capture
the opportunities and benefits.
 Future is something that is made by all of us, i.e. we can decide what the
future looks like.
 Strategy proposition for a small country is to identify the
key platforms, networks, actors and processes which have
the biggest influence on the future. Finding ways to
influence those processes will allow us to have an impact
on the future. It is easier not only to predict changes but
also influence the nature, direction and pace of the changes
and thereby be able to capture the opportunities and

7. How foresight relates with policy cycle?
Foresight
National Strategic
Agenda intelligence
setting strategy
Sector Policy
policies evaluation
Design
Implementation Performance
strategies evaluation
Evaluation
Instrument Impact
set-up evaluation
7
Implementation

8. Foresight adds intelligence to strategic
decisions

9. Foresight is not prediction nor research

11. Estonian Development Fund as
the national foresight institution
 Established by Estonian Parliament in 2006
 Based on Finnish SITRA model: state venture capital
combined with national foresight activities
 Foresight activities + division started in late 2007
(6 people currently)
 Besides the Estonian Development Fund, no other
foresight actors or activities yet in Estonia
 Our foresight focus is economy and related themes

12. Our foresight work in 2008/09

13. Strong focus on dissemination and
linkages to policy-making
• Public forums for spreading foresight results + media work
• Annual high-level Development Forum to discuss economic
situation and perspectives
• Workshops and seminars within foresight projects
• Monthly Coffee Morning: raising single topics for wider
discussion
• Weekly Innovation Labs: open small-circle first-hand discussion
• Master classes for decision-makers (both government and
business)
• Annual report and speech to Estonian Parliament

14. Building the foresight culture in
Estonia
• Our aim is two-fold:
1) Increasing demand – raising awareness of foresight
among decision-makers
2) Increasing supply – training and advising other actors
to undertake foresight projects.
• Events to introduce the nature and methods of
foresight (Coffee Mornings)

15. White Paper

16. White Paper for the Parliament
• Stemmed from the perfect crisis: current financial
and econmic crisis in the world combined with the
structural crisis of Estonian economy
• Prepares ground for the long term growth startegy
• But today meets the need to give short term
answers
• E.g today Estonia receives just 1/3 of the currency
inflows from what fed the growth during the “good
times”

17. Strategic Steps addressing...
• Capital
• Targeted motivation packages for the investors in the
areas of structural change
• “High-level representative“ to attract investors
• Lower taxation of dividend income
• Tax exemption on stock investements for private
people similarily to the enterprises
• Increase the rate of capitalisation of private and
venture capital investors with public or semi-public
(fund)investments that invest in unlisted enterprises

18. Strategic Steps addressing...
• Export
• Direct approach and targeted motivational packaes to current major
exporting enterprises
• More intensive governemnt sales and support structure on new
markets
• Labour
• In enhancing the labour force or developing the competencies
special emphasis on increasing entrepreneurship
• Increase the avaialbility of retraining
• Attracting talents or top specialists with intertnational experience to
Estonia
• Favouring entrepreneurial initiatives, start-ups
• Allowing temporary tax reliefor tax breaks to companies that
maintain or create new jobs
• Reducing taxes generally on labour costs

19. EST_IT@2018

20. +
EST_IT@2018 background and reasoning
ICT
• has applicability in all sectors of
economic and social life
• has importance in increasing economic productivity
as well as export.
-
• is attributed for more than half of the
productivity growth in OECD countries
On the other hand, ICT sector
• is fragmented, with low profitability,
and unmet demand from domestic market
• does not have strong specialisation
• has shortage of skilled labour
• export volumes remain modest.
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21. Problem Questions
• What are the strengths of Estonian ICT?
• Which ICT technologies have the greatest potential for
future growth?
• In which areas does Estonia stand to gain most from the
global technology trends?
• Which emerging technologies can offer new
growth opportunities for the Estonian
economy?
• What to emphasize to increase
competitiveness, efficiency and wellbeing?
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22. Goal & Scope
Goal:
A shared vision about the opportunities for wider usage and
development of ICT in increasing the Estonian
competitiveness (export), public and private sector
effectiveness and wellbeing of the population.
Scope
• Geographic – Estonia
• Areas – technologies matched with
implementation areas
(where ICT sector is in focus as enabler)
• Timeframe – 10 year
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23. Foresight objectives
• Identify technologies and areas of
importance
• Analyse their growth and contribution
potential for Estonia
• Develop visions for alternative futures
• Develop from that an action and role map
for the participating actors
• Increase cooperation and common
understanding about the development
direction
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24. Target Groups
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25. General Outputs
Process outcomes Product outcomes
a. Agreement about a. Focus areas
common goals b. Vision(s)
b. Creating ownership c. Action and role map
for a shared vision
c. Stronger Formats
a. Print and web report
networking
b. Events and press releases
c. Articles
d. Web environment
25

26. Phase-specific Outputs
Phase 1 outcomes Phase 2 outcomes
a. Areas / a. Vision(s) of the
technologies for futures
further research
b. Action and role
map
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27. THANKS!
Kristjan Rebane
Information Society Expert
of Foresight Division
kristjan.rebane@arengufond.ee
See more on our website: www.arengufond.ee