The U.S. economy created 227,000 seasonally adjusted, non-farm jobs in February, according to the latest employment report from the BLS. This is the third consecutive month of net job gains over 200,000. After flirting with a retrenchment in payroll growth this past summer, the U.S. economy has added 201,000 monthly payrolls, on average, since September. The latest metropolitan area employment figures show that the DC region added 13,400 office-using jobs on an annual basis in 2011.

1. March 2012
Employment Tracker: Looking a Little Brighter
The outlook for the U.S. economy But by no means are we “out of the Private Sector Delivers Growth
Public Private Sector Employment, Annual
has improved since the end of woods” yet regarding employment.
Change, 000s
2011. Various national and global Continued domestic and
120
events have delivered positive news: international political uncertainty 100
80
at the end of February the Dow and a variety of economic 60
40
Jones Industrial Average surpassed headwinds due to rising oil prices 20
0
13,000, there was bipartisan present challenges to a speedier
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agreement on extending the federal recovery. Nonetheless, the U.S. -80
Private Sector Fed/ State/ Local Gov't
payroll tax cut, and European leaders economy created 227,000
agreed on (another) Greek debt seasonally adjusted, non-farm jobs Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
rescue package. Labor markets in February, according to the latest
the second half of the year, the DC
are slowly gaining steam while employment report from the BLS.
region ranked 5th among the top
large layoffs continue to decline. This is the third consecutive month
metropolitan areas for office job
The Bureau of Labor Statistics of net job gains over 200,000,
growth in 2011.
(BLS) reported that mass layoffs in which include upward revisions
January totaled 130,000 workers, to both December and January The most private sector jobs added
on a seasonally-adjusted basis. employment figures. After flirting since 2007. The DC Metro’s private
That is the third lowest monthly with a retrenchment in payroll sector added almost 17,000 jobs in
figure since the recent recession growth this past summer, the U.S. 2011, on par with pre-recession
began in December 2007. economy has added 201,000 2007 figures. On the other
monthly payrolls, on average, since hand, the public sector – which
Top Office Job Producing Markets September. Although metropolitan includes federal, state, and local
Total Nonfarm, Annual Job Growth/Loss, 000s
employment updates will not be governments – gained just 1,400
Dallas (1) available until the end of March, payrolls as the federal job machine
New York, NY (2)
we expect the DC region to post lost momentum throughout the year.
Seattle (3)
Los Angeles (4) positive results. In fact, 2011 saw the slowest public
Washington, DC (5)
Houston (6) 13,400 jobs sector job growth in the DC Metro
in 2011 DC ranks #5. The latest metropolitan
San Jose (7) since government employment
San Diego (8) area employment figures show that
Minneapolis (9) contracted in 1998. Although
San Francisco (10)
the DC region added 13,400 office-
both the public and private sectors
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 using jobs on an annual basis in
are important to the DC Metro’s
2011 2010 20111. That is well below the almost
employment markets, it is private
Sources: BLS, Moody’s Economy.com 20,000 office payrolls added in
sector job growth that more closely
2010. Still, despite the Federal
correlates with commercial office
Copyright © 2012 Cassidy Turley. All rights reserved.
Government having shed jobs in

2. Employment Growth/Decline by Industry utilities sectors – continued to shrink 12 months, and most will hire
DC Metro, 2011 vs. 2010 over the course of 2011, shedding cautiously due to political and
2,300 payrolls during the year. Still, economic uncertainties. In 2012,
Prof. Bus. Services 11,900
Education Health
Leisure Hospitality
5,000
4,700
the transportation, warehousing, expect legal and lobbying firms as
Financial Activities
and utilities sector delivered well as corporate government affairs
2,500
Retail Trade 2,400
State Local Gov't 800
Federal Government 700 positive, albeit small, job growth
Transport Utilities 200 Slow but Steady Growth for 2012
Information -1,500 adding 200 jobs—the first positive
Manufacturing -2,500 DC Metro Annual Job Growth
Other Services -3,100
gain since 2003. As the local and
-4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000
national economies continue to 45,000 42,000
40,000
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
strengthen, a boost in demand 35,000
20 Year Historical Average 33,100
30,000
for goods and services eventually
space demand (r=0.67). Thus, it
25,000
20,000 18,400 17,400
will drive employment and thus
is key that the private sector deliver 15,000
demand for industrial/warehouse
10,000
sustained employment growth in 5,000
space due to increased production, 0
order for the region to experience
2011 2012 2013 2014
distribution, and inventories.
robust net demand for office space. Source: BLS, Cassidy Turley Research
Employment prospects slowly
Private businesses drive growth. DC operations to drive employment
improve. DC Metro added 18,400
Metro’s professional and business gains in the downtown markets,
non-farm payrolls in 2011. BLS
services (PBS) sector – a key user while information technology,
revised this figure upward once
of office space – added 11,900 finance and healthcare will propel
already, and is expected to revise it
payrolls in 2011. This is the largest suburban employment gains.
upward again in light of the positive
employment gain of any sector in
national figures. The regional outlook
2011 and the largest increase for 1
Jan-Dec 2011 compared to Jan-Dec 2010
for 2012 employment mirrors the
the PBS sector since 2006. While
job growth trends in 2011, although
still below historical averages, it
net job creation will still be only half
indicates that private businesses
of the 20-year historical average.
are starting to slowly hire in the DC
While the Federal Government
region. And more of those jobs are
contributed positively to job growth
full-time positions. In 2011, one
in 2011, it will be a drag on regional
in ten of PBS payrolls added were For more information contact:
employment in 2012. The Federal
temporary jobs compared to two in
Government will continue to right- Jeffrey Kottmeier
ten such jobs in 2010. Vice President, Director of Research
size–mostly through attrition and
Industrial employment – which retirement during the next year. DC Region
includes the manufacturing and Private sector businesses will hire 202.463.2100
transportation, warehousing, and slowly throughout the coming
Copyright © 2012 Cassidy Turley. All rights reserved.