1. Conflicts 2030
Factors and Locations
Metropolitan University Prague
Martin Kolmhofer, Ph.D.

2. 44 % of the world population will live in Asia and Africa
8 billion people (vs 7 billion people now)

3. Countries with the biggest energy resources (oil, gas and coal)

4. In 2030 two thirds of all oil and gas exports will come from the Gulf States + Iraq + Iran

5. Save access and safe transport routes will be of high strategic importance for energy
importing countries

6. The Strait of Hormuz , is a narrow, strategically important strait between the Gulf of
Oman in the southeast and the Persian Gulf. It is estimated that by 2030 one third of all oil
exports will pass through this strait.

7. The Fifth Fleet of the United States Navy is responsible for naval forces in
the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Arabian Sea, and coast off East Africa as far south as
Kenya.

8. China? Will keep being dependent on oil from the Persian Gulf. To reduce the risks caused
by the long sea route China is building a deep-sea port situated at Gwadar in Pakistan.

10. Proposed trans-Himalayan pipe would link Pakistan's deepwater port of Gwadar with
China's remote western regions. Oil tankers would no longer have to pass the straits of
Malacca and Formosa.

11. Siberia could cause conflicts between China and Russia – emigration from
northeastern Chinese provinces to Siberia (especially in the area of Irkutsk – many
natural resources)

12. The Senkaku Islands (Chinese: Diaoyu Islands) are a group of uninhabited
islands controlled by Japan in the East China Sea. The islands are an issue in foreign
relations between Japan and China because of oil and gas resources

13. Other mineral resources (Copper, Iron, Gold, Bauxite) are limited to very few locations.
China owns over 50 % of rare earth elements (very important for communication
technology). Slashing their exports of rare-earth metals is all about moving Chinese
manufacturers up the supply chain, so they can sell valuable finished goods to the world
rather than lowly raw materials.
As a result of the increased demand and tightening restrictions on exports of the metals
from China, some countries are stockpiling rare earth resources.

14. Commodity Trading:
Commodity market is the place where raw or primary products are traded.
Most Traded Commodities:
Crude Oil, Coffee, Natural Gas, Gold, Brent Oil, Silver, Sugar, Corn, Wheat, Cotton, Copper

15. In 2030 about 50 % of the world’s population will live in areas where water is scarce

16. Example: Nile rises in Ethiopia. Ethiopia wants to build a big dam on the border to Sudan.
Concerns from down stream countries Sudan and Egypt that construction of the
massive dam project will reduce water flow.

17. Melting of glaciers in the Himalaya could cause freshwater shortage in neighboring
countries

18. Shortage of fertile soil due to increase in world population. Currently countries such as India,
China, Japan, South Korea and Saudi Arabia are already buying or renting land.
(“LAND GRABBING” - for details see: www.landmatrix. org)

19. About one-third of the Earth's land area can be used for agriculture.

20. Example Mozambique: 20 % of all fertile soil was sold or rent to other countries since 2000

21. The Northwest Passage was, again, free of ice in summer 2011 and the polar region
could be unfrozen in just 30 years

22. Consequence: The sea route between Europe and Asia will get almost 4000 km shorter
Northwest Passage: sea route through the Arctic Ocean, along the northern coast
of North America via waterways amidst the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, connecting
the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans
Northeast Passage: sea route running along the Russian Arctic coast from Murmansk on
the Barents Sea, along Siberia, to the Bering Strait and Far East

24. Melting of the arctic ice gives also access to new resources – Result: conflicting territorial
claims

25. Territorial waters: The World's EEZs (Exclusive Economic Zones)
Generally, a state's EEZ extends to a distance of 200 miles (370 km) out from its
coastal line. (Exclusive rights for fishing, drilling, and other economic activities)

26. The Russian Flag planted on the Arctic Seabed. Canada sees it as a
direct violation of Canadian Waters.

28. HISTORY OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC THOUGHT

29. FINANCIAL MARKETS: THE CITY OF LONDON

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