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Francesca Rossi
University of Padova, Italy




                              Preference reasoning
                              and aggregation:
                              between AI and social
                              choice
+
 My wordle




PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+
 Outline

   n    Preferences

   n    Collective decision making in multi-agent systems

   n    Social choice

   n    Computational social choice (CSS)

   n    Some specific issues in CSS
         n  Computational concerns
             n  Intractable manipulation
         n  Two preference formalisms
             n  soft constraints, CP-nets
         n  Sequential voting
         n  Preference elicitation


PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+
 Why preferences?

  ¡  An   intelligent system must be able to handle
       soft information
        l  different levels of preference or rejection
        l  several levels of tolerance
        l  vagueness
        l  imprecision

  ¡  Information                 may be non-crisp
        l  intrinsically: the world is not binary
        l  due to information which is only partially
            available

PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+
 Preferences
     n    Ubiquitous in real life
           n  I prefer Venice to Rome

     n    A more tolerant way to set some constraints over the possible scenarios
           n  I prefer a blue car

     n    Constraints can be used when we know what to accept or reject
           n  I don’t want to spend more than X


     n    If all constraints, possibly
           n  no solution, or
           n  too many of them, all apparently equally good


     n    Some problems are naturally modelled with preferences
           n  I don’t like meat, and I prefer fish to cheese

     n    Constraints and preferences may be present in the same problem
           n  Configuration, timetabling, etc.



PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
Example: University timetabling
  Professor	
                      Constraints                    Administra/on	
  

                                                    Constraints
            I cannot teach on Wednesday
            afternoon.

            I prefer not to teach early in
            the morning, nor on Friday           Lab C can fit only 120 students.
            afternoon.



                                                 Better to not leave 1-hour holes in
                                                 the day schedule.
                    Preferences

                               Preferences
 PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+
 Several kinds of preferences

   n  Positive        (degrees of acceptance)
       n  I   like ice cream
   n  Negative          (degrees of rejection)
       n  I   don’t like strawberries
   n  Unconditional
       n  I   prefer taking the bus
   n  Conditional
       n  I   prefer taking the bus if it s raining
   n  Multi-agent
       n  I
           like blue, my husband likes green, what color do we
          buy the car?


PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+
 Two main ways to model
 preferences
   n    Quantitative
         n    Numbers, or ordered set of objects
               n  My preference for ice cream is 0.8, and for cake is 0.6

         n    E.g., soft constraints

   n    Qualitative
         n    Pairwise comparisons
               n    Ice cream is better than cake
         n    E.g., CP-nets

   n    Both very natural in some scenarios

   n    Different expressive power

   n    Different computational complexity for reasoning with them
PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+
 Desiderata for an AI preference
 framework
   ¡  Expressive   power
   ¡  Compactness

   ¡  Efficiency

   ¡  Suitability for multi-agent settings




PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+
 Preferences for collective decision
 making in multi-agent systems
   n  Several      agents
   n  Common          set of possible decisions
   n  Each agent has its preferences over the possible
       decisions

   n  Goal: to   choose one of the decisions, based on the
       preferences of the agents
       n  Also a set of decisions, or a ranking over the decisions

   n  AI scenarios add: imprecision, uncertainty, complexity,
       etc.


PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+
 Example

    n    Three friends need to decide what to cook for dinner

      n  4   items (pasta, main, dessert, drink), 5 options for each

      n  Each friend has his/her own preferences over the
          meals



    Agents = friends

    Decisions = all possible dinners


PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+
 Another example:

    n          Several time slots under consideration

    n          Partecipants accepts or reject each time slot
          n     Very simple way to express preferences over time
                 slots
          n     Very little information communicated to the system

    n          Collective choice: a single time slot
          n     The one with most acceptance votes from
                 participants



PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+
 Collective decision scenarios

    n          IT enabled social environments
          n     People are connected all the time
          n     Social networks allow us to share a large amount of
                 information
          n     More and more, we want to exploit this information to
                 take collective decisions
          n     With our friends, colleagues, etc.

    n          Also committees of agents
          n     Search engines
          n     Solvers
          n     Classifiers
          n     Product ranking agents, etc.


PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+
 How to compute a collective
 decision?
    n    Let the agents vote by expressing their
          preferences over the possible decisions

    n    Aggregate the votes to get a single decision



    n    Let’s look at voting theory then!




PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+
 Voting theory
 (Social choice)
  n    Voters

  n    Candidates

  n    Each voter expresses its preferences over the candidates

  n    Goal: to choose one candidate (the winner), based on the
        voters’ preferences
        n    Also many candidates, or ranking

  n    Rules (functions) to achieve the goal

  n    Properties of the rules

  n    Impossibility results

PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+               Some voting rules

   n    Plurality
         n    Voting: one most preferred decision
         n    Selection: the decision preferred by the largest number of agents

   n    Majority: like plurality, over 2 options

   n    Borda (m options)
         n    Voting: rank over all options, m-i score of ith option
         n    Selection: option with greatest sum of scores

   n    Approval (m options)
         n    Voting: approval of between 1 and m-1 options
         n    Selection: option with most votes
         n    This is what Doodle uses

   n    Copeland
         n    Voting: ranking over all options
         n    Selection: option which wins most pairwise competitions

   n    Cup
         n    Voting: ranking over all options
         n    Selection: winner in the agenda (tree of pairwise competitions)




PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+
    Plurality

     n  Ballot: 1        alternative

     n  Result: alternative(s)         with the most vote(s)

     n  Example:
         n    6 voters
         n    Candidates:


Ballot                       Profile                            Winner
+Borda
                                                                  Winner
                                                          Borda
rank          rank          rank          rank    rank    Count

3             3             3             3       3           9



2             2             2             2       2           8



1             1             1             1       1
                                                              7


0             0             0             0       0
                                                              6


    1 voter       1 voter       1 voter    1 voters 1 voter
+
 Some desirable properties (1)
    n    Condorcet-consistency
          n  If there is an option who beats every other option in pairwise
              competitions, it is selected
    n    Anonymity
          n  Result does not depend on who are the agents

    n    Neutrality
          n  Result does not depend on which are the options

    n    Monotonicity
          n  If an agent improves his preference for the winning option, this
              option is still selected
    n    Consistency
          n  If two sets of agents have the same result, this result is also
              obtained by joining the two sets
    n    Participation
          n  Given an agent, its addition to a profile leads to an equally or
              more preferred result for this agent

    n    Unanimity (efficiency)
          n  If all agents have the same top choice, it is selected

PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+ Some desirable properties(2)

      n  Non-dictatorship
         n  Thereis no voter such that his top choice always
            wins, regardless of the votes of other voters
      n  Independence     to Irrelevant Alternatives
         n  If choice X wins given a profile p, then Y cannot
             win in any profile where the relation between X
             and Y is as in p
      n  Strategy-proofness
         n  Thereis no profile and no agent such that the
            agent would be better off lying



PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+
   Different properties for different voting
   rules

   n    For the voting rules in our list:
         n    All are anonymous, neutral, non-dictatorial, and manipulable
         n    All but Cup are efficient
         n    Cup and Copeland are Condorcet-consistent
         n    All but Cup and Copeland are consistent and participative
         n    Only Approval is IIA




PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+
 Two classical
 impossibility results
   n    Arrow’s theorem
         n    it is impossible to have unanimity + IIA + non-dictatoriality

   n    Bad news, but IIA is a very strong property

   n    Gibbard-Sattherwaite’s theorem
         n    it is impossible to have surjectivity + non-dictatoriality + strategy-
               proofness

   n    This are really bad news: we don’t want to give up
         surjectivity, nor non-dictatoriality!




PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+




    Social choice
    scenarios vs. multi-
    agent systems
+
   Is social choice all we need for
   collective decision making in multi-
   agent systems?
   After all …
   n  Voters      = agents
   n  Candidates            = decisions
   n  Preferences

   n  Winner        = chosen decision


   But …
PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+
 Main differences

   n  In    multi-agent AI scenarios, we usually have
       n  Large sets of candidates (w.r.t. number of voters)
       n  Combinatorial structure for candidate set

       n  Knowledge representation formalisms to model
           preferences
       n  Incomparability

       n  Uncertainty, vagueness

       n  Computational concerns




PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+
 Large set of candidates

   n  In   AI scenarios, usually the set of decisions is much
       larger than the set of agents expressing
       preferences over the decisions
       n  Many web pages, few search engines
       n  Many solutions of a constraint problem, few
           solvers




PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+
 Combinatorial structure for the set
 of decisions

    n  Combinatorial             structure for the set of decisions
    n  Car
          (or PC, or camera) = several features, each with
       some instances

    n  Dinner      example:
       n  Three friends need to decide what to cook for dinner
       n  4 items (pasta, main, dessert, drink)
       n  5 options for each è 54 = 625 possible dinners


    n  In
         general: Cartesian product of several variable
       domains
       n    Variables = items of the menu, domain= 5 options

PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+
 Formalisms to model preferences
 compactly
   n    Preference ordering over a large set of decisions è need to
         model them compactly
         n    Otherwise too much space and time to handle such preferences

   n    Two examples:
         n    Soft constraints
         n    CP-nets




PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+
 Incomparability

   n  Preferences          do not always induce a total order
   n  Some    items are naturally incomparable
       n  Not because the information is missing

   n  Itdepends also on the combinatorial structure (multi-
       criteria and Pareto dominance)
   n  To   model uncertainty
   n  As   a means to resolve conflicts
   n  Many  AI formalisms to model preferences allow for
       partial orders


PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+
 Uncertainty, vagueness

   n    Missing preferences
         n    Too costly to compute them
         n    Privacy concerns
         n    Ongoing elicitation process

   n    Imprecise preferences
         n    Preferences coming from sensor data
         n    Too costly to compute the exact preference
         n    Estimates




PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+
 Computational concerns

   n    We would like to avoid very costly ways to
         n    Model the preferences
         n    Compute the winner
         n    Reason with the agents’ preferences

   n    On the other hand,we need a computational barrier against
         bad behaviours (such as manipulation)




PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+
 Computational social choice

   n    Between multi-agent systems and social choice
         n    AI, economics, mathematics, political science, etc.

   n    New concerns
         n    Preference modelling
         n    Algorithms, complexity
         n    Uncertainty, preference elicitation

   n    Cross-fertilization in both directions




PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+




    Computational
    concerns
+
 Computational concerns about
 voting rules
   n    We want to avoid spending too much time to
         n    Elicit preferences
         n    Compute the winner (winners, ranking)

   n    On the other hand, we want a computational barrier against
         manipulation
         n    Given the impossibility result, we want to avoid rules which are
               computationally easy to manipulate




PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+
 Manipulation

   n  A    rule is manipulable if an agent can gain by lying
       about its preferences
       n  Gain = obtain a result which is more preferred by
           the agent
       n  Strategy-proof rule: there is no incentive to
           misrepresent the preferences
   n  Gibbard-Sattherwaite        impossibility result
       n  With at least three agents and two candidates, it is
           impossible for a voting rule to be at the same time
           surjective, strategy-proof, and non- dictatorial
       n  We cannot give up non-dictatoriality and surjectivity!


PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+
 Intractable manipulation

   n  Ifmanipulation is computationally intractable for F,
       then F might be considered resistant (albeit still
       not immune) to manipulation

   n  Mostinteresting for voting procedures for which
       winner determination is tractable
       n    complexity gap between manipulation (undesired
             behaviour) and winner determination (desired
             functionality)




PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+
 Manipulability as a decision
 problem
           Manipulability(F)

           Instance: Set of ballots for all but one voter; alternative x.

           Question: Is there a ballot for the final voter such that x wins?

           How difficult it is to answer this question?

           n    A manipulator would have to solve Manipulability(F) for all alternatives, in its
                 preference ordering, to understand if there is a way he can get something
                 better

           n    If Manipulability(F) is computationally intractable, then manipulability may
                 be considered less of a worry for procedure F.

           n    Remark: We assume that the manipulator knows all the other ballots
                 n    This unrealistic assumption is reasonable for intractability results: if manipulation is intractable
                       even under such favorable conditions, then all the better.




PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+
     Plurality is easy to manipulate

   Manipulability(Plurality)ε P



   n    Simply vote for x, the alternative to be made winner by
         means of manipulation. If manipulation is possible at all, this
         will work. Otherwise not.

   n    In general: Manipulability(F) ε P for any rule F with
         polynomial winner determination and polynomial number of
         ballots.



                                               [Bartholdi,Tovey,Trick,1989]
PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+ Manipulating Borda is easy


   MANIPULABILITY(Borda) ε P



   n    Place x (the alternative to be made winner through
         manipulation) at the top of your ballot.

   n    Then inductively proceed as follows: Check if any of the
         remaining alternatives can be put next on the ballot without
         preventing x from winning. If yes, do so. If no, manipulation is
         impossible.



                                                [Bartholdi,Tovey,Trick,1989]
PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+ Manipulating STV is difficult


   n    MANIPULABILITY(STV) ε NP-complete



   n    NP-membership is clear: checking whether a given ballot
         makes x win can be done in polynomial time (just try it, STV
         is polynomial to compute).

   n    NP-hardness: by reduction from another NP-complete
         problem (3-Cover). The basic idea is to build a large election
         instance introducing all sorts of constraints on the ballot of
         the manipulator, such that finding a ballot meeting those
         constraints solves a given instance of 3-Cover.


PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia                   [Bartholdi,Orlin, 1991]
+ Coalitional constructive
  manipulation
         n    Manipulation by a coalition of agents

         n    Constructive: to make some candidate
               win (not just to get a better result)




PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+Weighted-coalitional constructive
   manipulation




PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+ Destructive manipulation


        n     The goal is to make sure that a candidate does not win
               (whoever else wins)‫‏‬

              n  Ifconstructive manipulation is easy then so is
                  destructive manipulation
              n  Destructive manipulation can be easy even though
                  constructive manipulation is hard
              n  Reverse does not hold
                       n    E.g. Borda is polynomial to manipulate desctructively but NP-
                             hard constructively for 3 or more candidates for a weighted
                             coalition




PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+Weighted-coalitional destructive
    manipulation




PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+


    Two examples:
    •  Soft constraints
    •  CP-nets




                          Formalisms to model
                          preferences
+ Modelling preferences compactly


   n    Preference ordering: an ordering over the whole set of
         solutions (or candidates, or outcomes, …)

   n    Solution space with a combinatorial structure è preferences
         over partial assignments of the decision variables, from which
         to generate the preference ordering over the solution space




PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+ Soft Constraints
  (the c-semiring framework)
   n  Variables       {X1,…,Xn}=X
   n  Domains         {D(X1),…,D(Xn)}=D
   n  Soft     constraints
      n  each  constraint involves some of the variables
      n  a preference is associated with each assignment of the
          variables
   n  Set     of preferences A
      n  Totally    or partially ordered (induced by +)
         n    a ≤ b iff a+b=b
      n  Combination  operator (x)
      n  Top and bottom element (1, 0)
      n  Formally defined by a c-semiring <A,+,x,0,1>


PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+ Soft Constraints

n    Soft constraint: a pair c=<f,con> where:
      n    Scope: con={Xc1,…, Xck} subset of X
      n    Preference function :
            f:   D(Xc1)x…xD(Xck) → A
                 tuple (v1,…, vk) → p preference

n    Hard constraint: a soft constraint where for each tuple (v1,…, vk)
            f (v1,…, vk)=1 the tuple is allowed
            f (v1,…, vk)=0 the tuple is forbidden




PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
Example: fuzzy constraints
       Preference of a decision: minimal preference of its parts
       Aim: to find a decision with maximal preference
       Preference values: between 0 and 1

   {fish,	
  meat}	
                                {white,	
  red}	
  

                                                                             Decision A
   meal	
                                            wine	
  
                                                                         Lunch time=     13
                                                                         Meal =       carne
   (fish,	
  white)	
  à	
  1	
     (meat,white)	
  à	
  0.3	
          Wine =      bianco
   (fish,	
  red)	
  à	
  0.8	
     (meat,	
  red)	
  à	
  0.7	
        Swimming time= 14
                                                                         pref(A)=min(0.3,0)=0
  {12,	
  13}	
                                      {14,	
  15}	
           Decision B
                                                                         Lunch time =     12
  Lunch	
                                     Swimming	
  	
             Meal =        pesce
   /me	
                                        /me	
  
                                                                         Wine =        bianco
                                    	
  	
  (13,	
  14)	
  à	
  0	
     Swimming time = 14
   (12,	
  14)	
  à	
  1	
  
   (12,	
  15)	
  à	
  1	
         	
  	
  (13,	
  15)	
  à	
  1	
     pref(B)=min(1,1)=1

PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+ Soft Constraints

  n    A soft CSP induces an ordering over the solutions, from the
        ordering of the preference set

  n    Totally ordered semiring è total order over solutions (possibly
        with ties)

  n    Partially ordered semiring è total or partial order over solutions
        (possibly with ties)

  n    Any ordering can be obtained!




PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
Qualitative and conditional
preferences
n Softconstraints model quantitatively unconditional
  preferences
n Many        problems need statements like
  n      I like white wine if there is fish
           (conditional)
  n      I like white wine better than red wine
           (qualitative)
n Quantitative è a level of preference for each
  assignment of the variables in a soft constraint è
  possibly difficult to elicitate preferences from user
PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+
                                                                               Op/mal	
  solu/on	
  
  Solution ordering
                                                                                Fish,	
  white,	
  peaches	
  

                    fish>meat	
         Main	
  	
  
                                      course	
  
                                                       Fish,	
  red,	
  peaches	
                      Fish,	
  white,	
  berries	
  
  Main course             Wine

       fish             white > red
                                       Wine	
  
      meat              red > white
                                                       meat,	
  red,	
  peaches	
                        Fish,	
  red,	
  berries	
  

peaches	
  >	
  strawberries	
         Fruit	
  

                                                      meat,	
  white,	
  peaches	
                       meat,	
  red,	
  berries	
  



  PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia                                               meat,	
  white,	
  berries	
  
Soft constraints vs. CP-nets

                                  Soft CSPs   Tree-like        CP-nets   Acyclic CP-
                                              soft CSPS                  nets

    Preference orderings          all         all              some      some
                                  difficult easy               difficult easy
Find an optimal decision

                                  easy        easy             difficult difficult
 Compare two decisions

         Find the next best       difficult   difficult for
                                              weighted,        difficult easy
                   Decision                   easy for fuzzy


        Check if a decision       difficult easy               easy      easy
                 is optimal

PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+




    Aggregating
    combinatorially-
    structured preferences
+
    Multiple issues
    n    Example:
          n    3 referendum (yes/no)
          n    Each voter has to give his preferences over triples of yes and no
          n    Such as: YYY>NNN>YNY>YNN>etc.

    n    With k issues, k-tuples (2k of such tuples if binary issues)

    n    Not every voting rule will work well

    n    Example: 13 voters, 3 binary issues:
          n    3 voters each vote for YNN, NYN, NNY
          n    1 voter votes for YYY, YYN, YNY, NYY
          n    No voter votes for NNN

    n    If we use majority on each issue: the winner is NNN!
          n    Each issue has 7 out of 13 votes for N
+
 Maybe Plurality on tuples?


 n    Ask each voter for her most preferred combination and
       apply the Plurality rule
       n    Avoids the paradox, computationally light
       n    But … almost random decisions
       n    Example: 10 binary issues, 20 voters è 210 = 1024 combinations
             to vote for but only 20 voters, so very high probability that no
             combination receives more than one vote è tie-breaking rule
             decides everything

 n    Similar also for voting rules that use only a small part of the
       voters’ preferences (ex.: k-approval with small k)
+
 Other voting rules on tuples

 n    Vote on combinations and use other voting rules that use the
       whole preference ordering on combinations

 n    Avoids the arbitrariness problem of plurality

 n    Not feasible when there are large domains

 n    Example:
       n    Borda (needs the whole preference ordering)
       n    6 binary issues è 26=64 possible combinations è each voter has
             to choose among 64! possible ballots
+
 Sequential voting

 n    Main idea: Vote separately on each issue, but do so
       sequentially

 n    This gives voters the opportunity to make their vote for one
       issue depend on the decisions on previous issues
+
Sequential voting and Condorcet losers


n    Condorcet loser (CL): candidate that loses against any other
      candidate in a pairwise contest
      n    Plurality may choose a Condorcet loser

n    Thm.: Sequential plurality voting over binary issues never
      elects a Condorcet loser
      n    Proof: Consider the election for the final issue. The winning
            combination cannot be a CL, since it wins at least against the
            other combination that was still possible after the penultimate
            election
      n    [Lacy, Niou, J. of Theoretical Politics, 2000]

n    But no guarantee that sequential voting elects the Condorcet
      winner (Condorcet consistency).
+




    A sequential approach
    to aggregate
    combinatorially-
    structured preferences
+
 Dinner example, three agents,
 fuzzy constraints
       Pesto 1                  Pesto 0.9                Pesto 1
       Tom 0.7                  Tom 1                    Tom 0.3


         Pasta                    Pasta                    Pasta



             (Pesto, Beer) 1          (Pesto, Beer) 1          (Pesto, Beer) 1
             (Pesto,Wine) 0.5         (Pesto,Wine) 0.9         (Pesto,Wine) 0.3
             (Tom ,Beer) 0.7          (Tom ,Beer) 0.9          (Tom ,Beer) 0.3
             (Tom,Wine) 0.3           (Tom,Wine) 0.9           (Tom,Wine) 1


         Drink                    Drink                    Drink



       Beer 1               Beer 1                       Beer 1
       Wine 0.7             Wine 1                       Wine 1
      Agent 1                   Agent 2                  Agent 3
+
 The sequential voting approach


   n  For      each variable
          n    compute an explicit profile over the variable domain
          n    apply a voting rule to this explicit profile
          n    add the information about the selected variable value

   n  Similar      approach used for CP-nets in [Lang, Xia, 2009]




PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+
 Dinner example using plurality


   Pesto
   Pesto      1
              1              Pesto 0.9                    Pesto 1
   Tom
   Tom        0
              0.7            Tom 1 0                      Tom 0.3
                                                                0
                                                                          Plurality   Pasta
                                                                                        =
      Pasta                       Pasta                     Pasta
                                                                                      Pesto

           (Pesto, Beer) 11
            (Pesto, Beer)             (Pesto, Beer) 11
                                       (Pesto, Beer)            (Pesto, Beer) 1
                                                                (Pesto, Beer) 1
            (Pesto,Wine) 0.5
           (Pesto,Wine) 0.5            (Pesto,Wine) 0.9
                                      (Pesto,Wine) 0.9          (Pesto,Wine) 0.3
                                                                (Pesto,Wine) 0.3
            (Tom ,Beer) 0
           (Tom ,Beer) 0.7             (Tom ,Beer) 0
                                      (Tom ,Beer) 0.9           (Tom ,Beer) 0.3
                                                                (Tom ,Beer) 0
            (Tom,Wine) 0
           (Tom,Wine) 0.3              (Tom,Wine) 0
                                      (Tom,Wine) 0.9            (Tom,Wine) 1
                                                                (Tom,Wine) 0

                                                                         Plurality
      Drink                       Drink                    Drink                       Drink
                                                                                         =
                                                                                       Beer
  Beer 1                    Beer 1                    Beer 1
  Wine 0.7
       0.5                  Wine 1
                                 0.9                  Wine 10.3
                                                                                      Winner
 Agent 1                    Agent 2                       Agent 3
PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+
 Local vs. sequential properties


   n    If each ri has the property, does the sequential rule have the
         property?

   n    If some ri does not have the property, does the sequential
         rule not have it?
         n    If the sequential rule has a property, do all the ri have it?




PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
Properties

                                     Local to sequential        Sequential to local

             Condorcet consistency   no                         yes


             Anonymity               yes                        yes

             Neutrality              no                         yes

             Consistency             yes                        yes

             Participation           no                         yes

             Efficiency              yes if single most         yes
                                     preferred option for all
                                     agents
             Monotonicity            yes                        yes

             IIA                     no                         yes

             Non-dictatorship        yes                        yes

             Strategy-proofness      no                         yes


PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+
 The sequential approach behaves
 like the non-sequential one

    n    Independently of the variable ordering

    n    Independently of the amount of consensus among agents

    n    Also on best and worst cases



    n    … in our experimental setting


                                  [Dalla Pozza, Pini, Rossi, Venable, IJCAI 2011]
                                  [Dalla Pozza, Rossi, Venable, ICAART 2011]

PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+




    Sequential Voting with CP-nets
+
 Profiles via compatible CP-nets
 n    n voters, voting by giving a CP-net each
       n    Same variables, different dependency graph and CP tables

 n    Compatible CP-nets: there exists a linear order on the variables
       that is compatible with the dependency graph of all CP-nets (that
       is, it completes the DAG)

 n    Then vote sequentially in this order

 n    Thm.: Under these assumptions, sequential voting is Condorcet
       consistent if all local voting rules are
       n    (Lang and Xia, Math. Social Sciences, 2009)
Example
  3    Rovers must decide:
  •    Where to go: Location A or Location B
  •    What to do: Analyze a rock or Take a picture
  •    Which station to downlink the data to: Station 1 or Station 2

   Loc-A >Loc-B       Loc-A
                      Loc-B> Loc-A         Loc-A >Loc-B               Winner

  WHER                                       WHER
   E
                       WHERE                  E           Plurality    WHERE
                                                                          =
                                                                       Loc-A
                 Loc-A: Image > AnalyzeLoc-A: Analyze> Image
                 Loc-B: Analyze> Image Loc-B: Image> Analyze
Image >Analyze    Image >Analyze        Analyze >Image
                                                         Plurality     WHAT
  WHAT                 WHAT                  WHAT                         =
                                                                       Image

St1 >St2             St2>St1               St2>St1
                                                         Plurality
                                                                       DLINK
 DLINK                 DLINK                DLINK
                                                                          =
                                                                         St2
ROVER 1              ROVER 2               ROVER 3
+




    Bribing CP-nets
+
 Bribery when voting with CP-nets
       n  Agents         express their preferences via CP-nets
       n  External          agent with a desired candidate p and a budget B
       n  Briber        can ask voters to change their preferences
       n  Voters        charge the briber
       n  Cost      scheme describing the cost of bribing each voter
          n    Fixed cost (C-equal), number of flips (C-flip), number of flips with any cost per flip (C-any), flips of
                more important vars count more (C-level), distance from current optimal and new optimal (C-dist)




        Can the briber make p win by spending within budget B?
        How difficult it is for the briber to know this and understand
        what to do?

PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+
Complexity results for bribery with
CP-nets

              Sequential     Sequential   Plurality      Plurality
              Majority       Majority     Veto           Veto
                             with weights K-Approval     K-Approval*
                                          (IV)           (DV, IV+DV)
    C_EQUAL   NP-complete    NP-complete   P             P
    C_FLIP    P              NP-complete   P             P
    C_LEVEL   P              NP-complete   P             ?
    C_ANY     P              NP-complete   ?             ?
    C_DIST    ?              NP-complete   P             P




                            [Mattei, Rossi, Venable, Pini, AAMAS 2012]
+




    Preference elicitation
Preference elicitation



         n  Some       preferences may be missing


         n  Time      consuming, costly, difficult, to elicit them all


         n  Want      to terminate elicitation as soon as winner
            fixed



PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+
 Possible and necessary winners

     n    Necessary winner
           n  However remaining votes are cast, he must win


     n    Possible winner
           n  There is a way for remaining votes to be cast so that he wins


     n     Closely connected to manipulation
             n  A is possible winner iff there is a constructive manipulation for A
             n  A is a necessary winner iff there is no destructive manipulation for A


     n    Closely connected to preference elicitation
           n  Elicitation can only be terminated iff possible winners = necessary winner
           n  “Deciding elicitation is over” is in P => computing possible (and necessary)
               winners is also in P



                                                                               [Konczak	
  and	
  Lang,	
  2005]	
  
PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
                                                                               [Walsh,	
  2008]	
  
+ Computing possible and
         necessary winners

         n    Consider specific voting rules
         n    Unweighted votes
         n    Arbitrary number of candidates
               n  For STV, computing possible winners is NP-hard, and
                   necessary winners is coNP-hard
               n  Even NP-hard to approximate set of possible winners
                   within constant factor in size
               n  Easy for many other rules


                                  [Pini,	
  Rossi,	
  Venable,	
  Walsh,	
  IJCAI	
  2007]	
  
                                  [Pini,	
  Rossi,	
  Venable,	
  Walsh,	
  AAMAS	
  2011]	
  
                                  [Lang,	
  Pini,	
  Rossi,	
  Salvagnin,	
  Venable,	
  Walsh,	
  JAAMAS	
  2011]	
  
PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia   [Pini,	
  Rossi,	
  Venable,	
  Walsh,	
  AIJ	
  2011]	
  
+
 Manipulation can be allowed:
 iterative voting
   n    Once agents have voted, maybe some would want to change
         their vote because the collective decision is not acceptable
         to them

   n    Doodle allows for that

   n    A form of legal manipulation

   n    But we want to make sure this process converges
         n    At some point, all agent must be either satisfied with the result or
               must be unable to change the result

   n    Define manipulation moves (how to modify one agent’s vote)
         to assure convergence
         n    Plurality and veto converge, Borda does not
         n    On going work for Copleand, Cup, Maximin
PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+
 Conclusions

   n    Brief introduction to computational social choice:
         n    Between multi-agent systems and social choice
               n  AI, economics, mathematics, etc.

         n    New concerns
               n  Preference modelling

               n    Algorithms, complexity
                 Uncertainty, preference elicitation
               n 

         n    Cross-fertilization in both directions




PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+
 If you want to know more

     “A short introduction to preferences:
     between Artificial Intelligence and
     Social Choice”
     F. Rossi, K. B. Venable, T. Walsh
     Morgan & Claypool
     2011
     http://www.morganclaypool.com/




PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
+


   Waiting for all of you in
   Beijing next year for IJCAI
   2013!




PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia

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Preference reasoning and aggregation between AI and social choice

  • 1. + Francesca Rossi University of Padova, Italy Preference reasoning and aggregation: between AI and social choice
  • 2. + My wordle PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 3. + Outline n  Preferences n  Collective decision making in multi-agent systems n  Social choice n  Computational social choice (CSS) n  Some specific issues in CSS n  Computational concerns n  Intractable manipulation n  Two preference formalisms n  soft constraints, CP-nets n  Sequential voting n  Preference elicitation PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 4. + Why preferences? ¡  An intelligent system must be able to handle soft information l  different levels of preference or rejection l  several levels of tolerance l  vagueness l  imprecision ¡  Information may be non-crisp l  intrinsically: the world is not binary l  due to information which is only partially available PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 5. + Preferences n  Ubiquitous in real life n  I prefer Venice to Rome n  A more tolerant way to set some constraints over the possible scenarios n  I prefer a blue car n  Constraints can be used when we know what to accept or reject n  I don’t want to spend more than X n  If all constraints, possibly n  no solution, or n  too many of them, all apparently equally good n  Some problems are naturally modelled with preferences n  I don’t like meat, and I prefer fish to cheese n  Constraints and preferences may be present in the same problem n  Configuration, timetabling, etc. PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 6. Example: University timetabling Professor   Constraints Administra/on   Constraints I cannot teach on Wednesday afternoon. I prefer not to teach early in the morning, nor on Friday Lab C can fit only 120 students. afternoon. Better to not leave 1-hour holes in the day schedule. Preferences Preferences PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 7. + Several kinds of preferences n  Positive (degrees of acceptance) n  I like ice cream n  Negative (degrees of rejection) n  I don’t like strawberries n  Unconditional n  I prefer taking the bus n  Conditional n  I prefer taking the bus if it s raining n  Multi-agent n  I like blue, my husband likes green, what color do we buy the car? PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 8. + Two main ways to model preferences n  Quantitative n  Numbers, or ordered set of objects n  My preference for ice cream is 0.8, and for cake is 0.6 n  E.g., soft constraints n  Qualitative n  Pairwise comparisons n  Ice cream is better than cake n  E.g., CP-nets n  Both very natural in some scenarios n  Different expressive power n  Different computational complexity for reasoning with them PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 9. + Desiderata for an AI preference framework ¡  Expressive power ¡  Compactness ¡  Efficiency ¡  Suitability for multi-agent settings PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 10. + Preferences for collective decision making in multi-agent systems n  Several agents n  Common set of possible decisions n  Each agent has its preferences over the possible decisions n  Goal: to choose one of the decisions, based on the preferences of the agents n  Also a set of decisions, or a ranking over the decisions n  AI scenarios add: imprecision, uncertainty, complexity, etc. PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 11. + Example n  Three friends need to decide what to cook for dinner n  4 items (pasta, main, dessert, drink), 5 options for each n  Each friend has his/her own preferences over the meals Agents = friends Decisions = all possible dinners PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 12. + Another example: n  Several time slots under consideration n  Partecipants accepts or reject each time slot n  Very simple way to express preferences over time slots n  Very little information communicated to the system n  Collective choice: a single time slot n  The one with most acceptance votes from participants PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 13. + Collective decision scenarios n  IT enabled social environments n  People are connected all the time n  Social networks allow us to share a large amount of information n  More and more, we want to exploit this information to take collective decisions n  With our friends, colleagues, etc. n  Also committees of agents n  Search engines n  Solvers n  Classifiers n  Product ranking agents, etc. PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 14. + How to compute a collective decision? n  Let the agents vote by expressing their preferences over the possible decisions n  Aggregate the votes to get a single decision n  Let’s look at voting theory then! PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 15. + Voting theory (Social choice) n  Voters n  Candidates n  Each voter expresses its preferences over the candidates n  Goal: to choose one candidate (the winner), based on the voters’ preferences n  Also many candidates, or ranking n  Rules (functions) to achieve the goal n  Properties of the rules n  Impossibility results PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 16. + Some voting rules n  Plurality n  Voting: one most preferred decision n  Selection: the decision preferred by the largest number of agents n  Majority: like plurality, over 2 options n  Borda (m options) n  Voting: rank over all options, m-i score of ith option n  Selection: option with greatest sum of scores n  Approval (m options) n  Voting: approval of between 1 and m-1 options n  Selection: option with most votes n  This is what Doodle uses n  Copeland n  Voting: ranking over all options n  Selection: option which wins most pairwise competitions n  Cup n  Voting: ranking over all options n  Selection: winner in the agenda (tree of pairwise competitions) PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 17. + Plurality n  Ballot: 1 alternative n  Result: alternative(s) with the most vote(s) n  Example: n  6 voters n  Candidates: Ballot Profile Winner
  • 18. +Borda Winner Borda rank rank rank rank rank Count 3 3 3 3 3 9 2 2 2 2 2 8 1 1 1 1 1 7 0 0 0 0 0 6 1 voter 1 voter 1 voter 1 voters 1 voter
  • 19. + Some desirable properties (1) n  Condorcet-consistency n  If there is an option who beats every other option in pairwise competitions, it is selected n  Anonymity n  Result does not depend on who are the agents n  Neutrality n  Result does not depend on which are the options n  Monotonicity n  If an agent improves his preference for the winning option, this option is still selected n  Consistency n  If two sets of agents have the same result, this result is also obtained by joining the two sets n  Participation n  Given an agent, its addition to a profile leads to an equally or more preferred result for this agent n  Unanimity (efficiency) n  If all agents have the same top choice, it is selected PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 20. + Some desirable properties(2) n  Non-dictatorship n  Thereis no voter such that his top choice always wins, regardless of the votes of other voters n  Independence to Irrelevant Alternatives n  If choice X wins given a profile p, then Y cannot win in any profile where the relation between X and Y is as in p n  Strategy-proofness n  Thereis no profile and no agent such that the agent would be better off lying PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 21. + Different properties for different voting rules n  For the voting rules in our list: n  All are anonymous, neutral, non-dictatorial, and manipulable n  All but Cup are efficient n  Cup and Copeland are Condorcet-consistent n  All but Cup and Copeland are consistent and participative n  Only Approval is IIA PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 22. + Two classical impossibility results n  Arrow’s theorem n  it is impossible to have unanimity + IIA + non-dictatoriality n  Bad news, but IIA is a very strong property n  Gibbard-Sattherwaite’s theorem n  it is impossible to have surjectivity + non-dictatoriality + strategy- proofness n  This are really bad news: we don’t want to give up surjectivity, nor non-dictatoriality! PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 23. + Social choice scenarios vs. multi- agent systems
  • 24. + Is social choice all we need for collective decision making in multi- agent systems? After all … n  Voters = agents n  Candidates = decisions n  Preferences n  Winner = chosen decision But … PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 25. + Main differences n  In multi-agent AI scenarios, we usually have n  Large sets of candidates (w.r.t. number of voters) n  Combinatorial structure for candidate set n  Knowledge representation formalisms to model preferences n  Incomparability n  Uncertainty, vagueness n  Computational concerns PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 26. + Large set of candidates n  In AI scenarios, usually the set of decisions is much larger than the set of agents expressing preferences over the decisions n  Many web pages, few search engines n  Many solutions of a constraint problem, few solvers PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 27. + Combinatorial structure for the set of decisions n  Combinatorial structure for the set of decisions n  Car (or PC, or camera) = several features, each with some instances n  Dinner example: n  Three friends need to decide what to cook for dinner n  4 items (pasta, main, dessert, drink) n  5 options for each è 54 = 625 possible dinners n  In general: Cartesian product of several variable domains n  Variables = items of the menu, domain= 5 options PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 28. + Formalisms to model preferences compactly n  Preference ordering over a large set of decisions è need to model them compactly n  Otherwise too much space and time to handle such preferences n  Two examples: n  Soft constraints n  CP-nets PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 29. + Incomparability n  Preferences do not always induce a total order n  Some items are naturally incomparable n  Not because the information is missing n  Itdepends also on the combinatorial structure (multi- criteria and Pareto dominance) n  To model uncertainty n  As a means to resolve conflicts n  Many AI formalisms to model preferences allow for partial orders PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 30. + Uncertainty, vagueness n  Missing preferences n  Too costly to compute them n  Privacy concerns n  Ongoing elicitation process n  Imprecise preferences n  Preferences coming from sensor data n  Too costly to compute the exact preference n  Estimates PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 31. + Computational concerns n  We would like to avoid very costly ways to n  Model the preferences n  Compute the winner n  Reason with the agents’ preferences n  On the other hand,we need a computational barrier against bad behaviours (such as manipulation) PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 32. + Computational social choice n  Between multi-agent systems and social choice n  AI, economics, mathematics, political science, etc. n  New concerns n  Preference modelling n  Algorithms, complexity n  Uncertainty, preference elicitation n  Cross-fertilization in both directions PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 33. + Computational concerns
  • 34. + Computational concerns about voting rules n  We want to avoid spending too much time to n  Elicit preferences n  Compute the winner (winners, ranking) n  On the other hand, we want a computational barrier against manipulation n  Given the impossibility result, we want to avoid rules which are computationally easy to manipulate PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 35. + Manipulation n  A rule is manipulable if an agent can gain by lying about its preferences n  Gain = obtain a result which is more preferred by the agent n  Strategy-proof rule: there is no incentive to misrepresent the preferences n  Gibbard-Sattherwaite impossibility result n  With at least three agents and two candidates, it is impossible for a voting rule to be at the same time surjective, strategy-proof, and non- dictatorial n  We cannot give up non-dictatoriality and surjectivity! PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 36. + Intractable manipulation n  Ifmanipulation is computationally intractable for F, then F might be considered resistant (albeit still not immune) to manipulation n  Mostinteresting for voting procedures for which winner determination is tractable n  complexity gap between manipulation (undesired behaviour) and winner determination (desired functionality) PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 37. + Manipulability as a decision problem Manipulability(F) Instance: Set of ballots for all but one voter; alternative x. Question: Is there a ballot for the final voter such that x wins? How difficult it is to answer this question? n  A manipulator would have to solve Manipulability(F) for all alternatives, in its preference ordering, to understand if there is a way he can get something better n  If Manipulability(F) is computationally intractable, then manipulability may be considered less of a worry for procedure F. n  Remark: We assume that the manipulator knows all the other ballots n  This unrealistic assumption is reasonable for intractability results: if manipulation is intractable even under such favorable conditions, then all the better. PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 38. + Plurality is easy to manipulate Manipulability(Plurality)ε P n  Simply vote for x, the alternative to be made winner by means of manipulation. If manipulation is possible at all, this will work. Otherwise not. n  In general: Manipulability(F) ε P for any rule F with polynomial winner determination and polynomial number of ballots. [Bartholdi,Tovey,Trick,1989] PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 39. + Manipulating Borda is easy MANIPULABILITY(Borda) ε P n  Place x (the alternative to be made winner through manipulation) at the top of your ballot. n  Then inductively proceed as follows: Check if any of the remaining alternatives can be put next on the ballot without preventing x from winning. If yes, do so. If no, manipulation is impossible. [Bartholdi,Tovey,Trick,1989] PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 40. + Manipulating STV is difficult n  MANIPULABILITY(STV) ε NP-complete n  NP-membership is clear: checking whether a given ballot makes x win can be done in polynomial time (just try it, STV is polynomial to compute). n  NP-hardness: by reduction from another NP-complete problem (3-Cover). The basic idea is to build a large election instance introducing all sorts of constraints on the ballot of the manipulator, such that finding a ballot meeting those constraints solves a given instance of 3-Cover. PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia [Bartholdi,Orlin, 1991]
  • 41. + Coalitional constructive manipulation n  Manipulation by a coalition of agents n  Constructive: to make some candidate win (not just to get a better result) PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 42. +Weighted-coalitional constructive manipulation PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 43. + Destructive manipulation n  The goal is to make sure that a candidate does not win (whoever else wins)‫‏‬ n  Ifconstructive manipulation is easy then so is destructive manipulation n  Destructive manipulation can be easy even though constructive manipulation is hard n  Reverse does not hold n  E.g. Borda is polynomial to manipulate desctructively but NP- hard constructively for 3 or more candidates for a weighted coalition PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 44. +Weighted-coalitional destructive manipulation PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 45. + Two examples: •  Soft constraints •  CP-nets Formalisms to model preferences
  • 46. + Modelling preferences compactly n  Preference ordering: an ordering over the whole set of solutions (or candidates, or outcomes, …) n  Solution space with a combinatorial structure è preferences over partial assignments of the decision variables, from which to generate the preference ordering over the solution space PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 47. + Soft Constraints (the c-semiring framework) n  Variables {X1,…,Xn}=X n  Domains {D(X1),…,D(Xn)}=D n  Soft constraints n  each constraint involves some of the variables n  a preference is associated with each assignment of the variables n  Set of preferences A n  Totally or partially ordered (induced by +) n  a ≤ b iff a+b=b n  Combination operator (x) n  Top and bottom element (1, 0) n  Formally defined by a c-semiring <A,+,x,0,1> PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 48. + Soft Constraints n  Soft constraint: a pair c=<f,con> where: n  Scope: con={Xc1,…, Xck} subset of X n  Preference function : f: D(Xc1)x…xD(Xck) → A tuple (v1,…, vk) → p preference n  Hard constraint: a soft constraint where for each tuple (v1,…, vk) f (v1,…, vk)=1 the tuple is allowed f (v1,…, vk)=0 the tuple is forbidden PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 49. Example: fuzzy constraints Preference of a decision: minimal preference of its parts Aim: to find a decision with maximal preference Preference values: between 0 and 1 {fish,  meat}   {white,  red}   Decision A meal   wine   Lunch time= 13 Meal = carne (fish,  white)  à  1   (meat,white)  à  0.3   Wine = bianco (fish,  red)  à  0.8   (meat,  red)  à  0.7   Swimming time= 14 pref(A)=min(0.3,0)=0 {12,  13}   {14,  15}   Decision B Lunch time = 12 Lunch   Swimming     Meal = pesce /me   /me   Wine = bianco    (13,  14)  à  0   Swimming time = 14 (12,  14)  à  1   (12,  15)  à  1      (13,  15)  à  1   pref(B)=min(1,1)=1 PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 50. + Soft Constraints n  A soft CSP induces an ordering over the solutions, from the ordering of the preference set n  Totally ordered semiring è total order over solutions (possibly with ties) n  Partially ordered semiring è total or partial order over solutions (possibly with ties) n  Any ordering can be obtained! PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 51. Qualitative and conditional preferences n Softconstraints model quantitatively unconditional preferences n Many problems need statements like n  I like white wine if there is fish (conditional) n  I like white wine better than red wine (qualitative) n Quantitative è a level of preference for each assignment of the variables in a soft constraint è possibly difficult to elicitate preferences from user PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 52. + Op/mal  solu/on   Solution ordering Fish,  white,  peaches   fish>meat   Main     course   Fish,  red,  peaches   Fish,  white,  berries   Main course Wine fish white > red Wine   meat red > white meat,  red,  peaches   Fish,  red,  berries   peaches  >  strawberries   Fruit   meat,  white,  peaches   meat,  red,  berries   PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia meat,  white,  berries  
  • 53. Soft constraints vs. CP-nets Soft CSPs Tree-like CP-nets Acyclic CP- soft CSPS nets Preference orderings all all some some difficult easy difficult easy Find an optimal decision easy easy difficult difficult Compare two decisions Find the next best difficult difficult for weighted, difficult easy Decision easy for fuzzy Check if a decision difficult easy easy easy is optimal PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 54. + Aggregating combinatorially- structured preferences
  • 55. + Multiple issues n  Example: n  3 referendum (yes/no) n  Each voter has to give his preferences over triples of yes and no n  Such as: YYY>NNN>YNY>YNN>etc. n  With k issues, k-tuples (2k of such tuples if binary issues) n  Not every voting rule will work well n  Example: 13 voters, 3 binary issues: n  3 voters each vote for YNN, NYN, NNY n  1 voter votes for YYY, YYN, YNY, NYY n  No voter votes for NNN n  If we use majority on each issue: the winner is NNN! n  Each issue has 7 out of 13 votes for N
  • 56. + Maybe Plurality on tuples? n  Ask each voter for her most preferred combination and apply the Plurality rule n  Avoids the paradox, computationally light n  But … almost random decisions n  Example: 10 binary issues, 20 voters è 210 = 1024 combinations to vote for but only 20 voters, so very high probability that no combination receives more than one vote è tie-breaking rule decides everything n  Similar also for voting rules that use only a small part of the voters’ preferences (ex.: k-approval with small k)
  • 57. + Other voting rules on tuples n  Vote on combinations and use other voting rules that use the whole preference ordering on combinations n  Avoids the arbitrariness problem of plurality n  Not feasible when there are large domains n  Example: n  Borda (needs the whole preference ordering) n  6 binary issues è 26=64 possible combinations è each voter has to choose among 64! possible ballots
  • 58. + Sequential voting n  Main idea: Vote separately on each issue, but do so sequentially n  This gives voters the opportunity to make their vote for one issue depend on the decisions on previous issues
  • 59. + Sequential voting and Condorcet losers n  Condorcet loser (CL): candidate that loses against any other candidate in a pairwise contest n  Plurality may choose a Condorcet loser n  Thm.: Sequential plurality voting over binary issues never elects a Condorcet loser n  Proof: Consider the election for the final issue. The winning combination cannot be a CL, since it wins at least against the other combination that was still possible after the penultimate election n  [Lacy, Niou, J. of Theoretical Politics, 2000] n  But no guarantee that sequential voting elects the Condorcet winner (Condorcet consistency).
  • 60. + A sequential approach to aggregate combinatorially- structured preferences
  • 61. + Dinner example, three agents, fuzzy constraints Pesto 1 Pesto 0.9 Pesto 1 Tom 0.7 Tom 1 Tom 0.3 Pasta Pasta Pasta (Pesto, Beer) 1 (Pesto, Beer) 1 (Pesto, Beer) 1 (Pesto,Wine) 0.5 (Pesto,Wine) 0.9 (Pesto,Wine) 0.3 (Tom ,Beer) 0.7 (Tom ,Beer) 0.9 (Tom ,Beer) 0.3 (Tom,Wine) 0.3 (Tom,Wine) 0.9 (Tom,Wine) 1 Drink Drink Drink Beer 1 Beer 1 Beer 1 Wine 0.7 Wine 1 Wine 1 Agent 1 Agent 2 Agent 3
  • 62. + The sequential voting approach n  For each variable n  compute an explicit profile over the variable domain n  apply a voting rule to this explicit profile n  add the information about the selected variable value n  Similar approach used for CP-nets in [Lang, Xia, 2009] PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 63. + Dinner example using plurality Pesto Pesto 1 1 Pesto 0.9 Pesto 1 Tom Tom 0 0.7 Tom 1 0 Tom 0.3 0 Plurality Pasta = Pasta Pasta Pasta Pesto (Pesto, Beer) 11 (Pesto, Beer) (Pesto, Beer) 11 (Pesto, Beer) (Pesto, Beer) 1 (Pesto, Beer) 1 (Pesto,Wine) 0.5 (Pesto,Wine) 0.5 (Pesto,Wine) 0.9 (Pesto,Wine) 0.9 (Pesto,Wine) 0.3 (Pesto,Wine) 0.3 (Tom ,Beer) 0 (Tom ,Beer) 0.7 (Tom ,Beer) 0 (Tom ,Beer) 0.9 (Tom ,Beer) 0.3 (Tom ,Beer) 0 (Tom,Wine) 0 (Tom,Wine) 0.3 (Tom,Wine) 0 (Tom,Wine) 0.9 (Tom,Wine) 1 (Tom,Wine) 0 Plurality Drink Drink Drink Drink = Beer Beer 1 Beer 1 Beer 1 Wine 0.7 0.5 Wine 1 0.9 Wine 10.3 Winner Agent 1 Agent 2 Agent 3 PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 64. + Local vs. sequential properties n  If each ri has the property, does the sequential rule have the property? n  If some ri does not have the property, does the sequential rule not have it? n  If the sequential rule has a property, do all the ri have it? PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 65. Properties Local to sequential Sequential to local Condorcet consistency no yes Anonymity yes yes Neutrality no yes Consistency yes yes Participation no yes Efficiency yes if single most yes preferred option for all agents Monotonicity yes yes IIA no yes Non-dictatorship yes yes Strategy-proofness no yes PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 66. + The sequential approach behaves like the non-sequential one n  Independently of the variable ordering n  Independently of the amount of consensus among agents n  Also on best and worst cases n  … in our experimental setting [Dalla Pozza, Pini, Rossi, Venable, IJCAI 2011] [Dalla Pozza, Rossi, Venable, ICAART 2011] PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 67. + Sequential Voting with CP-nets
  • 68. + Profiles via compatible CP-nets n  n voters, voting by giving a CP-net each n  Same variables, different dependency graph and CP tables n  Compatible CP-nets: there exists a linear order on the variables that is compatible with the dependency graph of all CP-nets (that is, it completes the DAG) n  Then vote sequentially in this order n  Thm.: Under these assumptions, sequential voting is Condorcet consistent if all local voting rules are n  (Lang and Xia, Math. Social Sciences, 2009)
  • 69. Example 3 Rovers must decide: •  Where to go: Location A or Location B •  What to do: Analyze a rock or Take a picture •  Which station to downlink the data to: Station 1 or Station 2 Loc-A >Loc-B Loc-A Loc-B> Loc-A Loc-A >Loc-B Winner WHER WHER E WHERE E Plurality WHERE = Loc-A Loc-A: Image > AnalyzeLoc-A: Analyze> Image Loc-B: Analyze> Image Loc-B: Image> Analyze Image >Analyze Image >Analyze Analyze >Image Plurality WHAT WHAT WHAT WHAT = Image St1 >St2 St2>St1 St2>St1 Plurality DLINK DLINK DLINK DLINK = St2 ROVER 1 ROVER 2 ROVER 3
  • 70. + Bribing CP-nets
  • 71. + Bribery when voting with CP-nets n  Agents express their preferences via CP-nets n  External agent with a desired candidate p and a budget B n  Briber can ask voters to change their preferences n  Voters charge the briber n  Cost scheme describing the cost of bribing each voter n  Fixed cost (C-equal), number of flips (C-flip), number of flips with any cost per flip (C-any), flips of more important vars count more (C-level), distance from current optimal and new optimal (C-dist) Can the briber make p win by spending within budget B? How difficult it is for the briber to know this and understand what to do? PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 72. + Complexity results for bribery with CP-nets Sequential Sequential Plurality Plurality Majority Majority Veto Veto with weights K-Approval K-Approval* (IV) (DV, IV+DV) C_EQUAL NP-complete NP-complete P P C_FLIP P NP-complete P P C_LEVEL P NP-complete P ? C_ANY P NP-complete ? ? C_DIST ? NP-complete P P [Mattei, Rossi, Venable, Pini, AAMAS 2012]
  • 73. + Preference elicitation
  • 74. Preference elicitation n  Some preferences may be missing n  Time consuming, costly, difficult, to elicit them all n  Want to terminate elicitation as soon as winner fixed PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 75. + Possible and necessary winners n  Necessary winner n  However remaining votes are cast, he must win n  Possible winner n  There is a way for remaining votes to be cast so that he wins n  Closely connected to manipulation n  A is possible winner iff there is a constructive manipulation for A n  A is a necessary winner iff there is no destructive manipulation for A n  Closely connected to preference elicitation n  Elicitation can only be terminated iff possible winners = necessary winner n  “Deciding elicitation is over” is in P => computing possible (and necessary) winners is also in P [Konczak  and  Lang,  2005]   PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia [Walsh,  2008]  
  • 76. + Computing possible and necessary winners n  Consider specific voting rules n  Unweighted votes n  Arbitrary number of candidates n  For STV, computing possible winners is NP-hard, and necessary winners is coNP-hard n  Even NP-hard to approximate set of possible winners within constant factor in size n  Easy for many other rules [Pini,  Rossi,  Venable,  Walsh,  IJCAI  2007]   [Pini,  Rossi,  Venable,  Walsh,  AAMAS  2011]   [Lang,  Pini,  Rossi,  Salvagnin,  Venable,  Walsh,  JAAMAS  2011]   PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia [Pini,  Rossi,  Venable,  Walsh,  AIJ  2011]  
  • 77. + Manipulation can be allowed: iterative voting n  Once agents have voted, maybe some would want to change their vote because the collective decision is not acceptable to them n  Doodle allows for that n  A form of legal manipulation n  But we want to make sure this process converges n  At some point, all agent must be either satisfied with the result or must be unable to change the result n  Define manipulation moves (how to modify one agent’s vote) to assure convergence n  Plurality and veto converge, Borda does not n  On going work for Copleand, Cup, Maximin PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 78. + Conclusions n  Brief introduction to computational social choice: n  Between multi-agent systems and social choice n  AI, economics, mathematics, etc. n  New concerns n  Preference modelling n  Algorithms, complexity Uncertainty, preference elicitation n  n  Cross-fertilization in both directions PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 79. + If you want to know more “A short introduction to preferences: between Artificial Intelligence and Social Choice” F. Rossi, K. B. Venable, T. Walsh Morgan & Claypool 2011 http://www.morganclaypool.com/ PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia
  • 80. + Waiting for all of you in Beijing next year for IJCAI 2013! PRICAI 2012 - Kuching, Malaysia