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623 Fifth Avenue, 15th Floor  New York  NY 10022 torosoinv.com 1
Toroso Investments, LLC
March 2014
Smart Beta and Betting on Unicorns
Research compiled by Michael Venuto, CIO
Smart beta is the popular buzzword that describes an
emerging trend of alternatively weighted indexes in the ETP
world. This catchy term implies a panacea and evergreen
solution to some of the common issues often associated with
traditional market cap indexing. If this were the case, just like
unicorns, the Holy Grail and the fountain of youth provide
mythical solutions to our biggest concerns; smart beta should
solve our investment conundrums. Still, even myths have
value in our society. So let’s be clear and understand what
smart beta is and how it should be used. Trying to define it
clearly and succinctly is difficult. A web search provides only
one independent definition.
So based on this definition, it appears that any form of
alternative indexing; such as equal weighting, factor based
weighting, business characteristics, and other dynamic
indexes would fall under the broad catchall basket of smart
beta. Toroso believes a narrower definition is warranted here
to provide the necessary transparency that avoids confusion
and overlaps in the construction of well diversified investment
portfolios. For our clients, Toroso defines smart beta as a
subset of non-traditional indexing focused on weighting
indexes based on clearly understood fundamentals.
Where Did Smart Beta Come From?
Before we review this category in greater detail, there is one
question few have asked; how did this non-traditional ETP
craze get started? Is it as simple as trying to get downside
protection against future 2008-like environments? If so, why
is everyone convinced this smart beta methodology as a
whole can offer downside protection? Does it all boil down to
the simplest of Wall Street slogans – Buy low, sell high?
Probably – but do the smart beta strategies work all the time?
In a traditional market cap weighted index, when an
investment constituent is relatively small within its universe, it
has a similarly relatively small weighting in its index and more
than likely trades at the appropriate price for its specific
fundamentals. As the investment grows in proportion to its
universe, it increases its weighting within that index and,
consequently, can trade more based on the fundamentals of
the index as opposed to its own fundamentals. Bubbles are
formed as areas of a particular investment universe grow to
large portions of the entire universe.
For example, look at energy stocks in 2008. We saw the
energy sector climb from a representative level of 7% of the
S&P 500 Index in 2006 to as much as 16% in the spring of
2008. Did the profits of these energy companies grow
similarly over those years? Did their dividend payments?
Would energy stocks have grown to as large of a portion of
the index if it were weighted by their profits or dividends,
equally weighted, or weighted by the investment’s contributed
risk to the overall universe (risk parity)?
Weighting the index by almost anything other than the market
cap size of the companies, should, theoretically, provide an
opportunity to increase your allocation in a particular
investment within the index when a security is relatively
Smart beta is a rather elusive term in modern finance. It lacks a
strict definition and is also sometimes known as advanced beta,
alternative beta or strategy indices. It can be understood as an
umbrella term for rules based investment strategies that do not
use the conventional market capitalization weights that have
been criticized for delivering sub-optimal returns by
overweighting overvalued stocks and, conversely,
underweighting undervalued ones. Smart beta strategies
attempt to deliver a better risk and return trade-off than
conventional market cap weighted indices by using alternative
weighting schemes based on measures such as volatility or
dividends. Smart beta refers to an investment style where the
manager passively follows an index designed to take advantage
of perceived systematic biases or inefficiencies in the market. It
therefore costs less than active management, since there is less
day-to-day decision-making for the manager, but since it will, at
the very least, have higher trading costs than traditional passive
management (which minimizes those costs), it is a pricier option.
(Source: Financial Times Lexicon, March 2014)
623 Fifth Avenue, 15th Floor  New York  NY 10022 torosoinv.com 2
Toroso Investments, LLC
March 2014
undervalued and trim that security’s allocation when it’s
relatively overvalued. Nice theory, but the various practices
have not proven to be consistent in providing the expected
results.
Defining Smart Beta
Defining smart beta through exclusion as seen earlier in this
Commentary obfuscates the actual methods of indexing and
can lead to misunderstanding by the ultimate client or
investor. Again, let’s look at common definitions. According
to the Merriam-Webster Dictionary, the word “smart” when
used as an adjective means showing intelligence or good
judgment. And “beta” is a measure of the risk potential of a
stock or an investment portfolio expressed as a ratio of the
stock's or portfolio's volatility to the volatility of the market as
a whole.
In the Appendix, we provide an outline of the non-traditional
indexing universe and some simple definitions for each. The
five main categories we use with our clients are business
characteristics, equal weighted, factor-based, risk parity, and
smart beta. The smart beta category implies the resulting
index includes an almost complete representation of the
market, such that you should expect at least market returns
or beta, with the opportunity for some alpha derived from the
smart use of fundamental weighting of the securities in the
index.
One additional “smell” screen for Toroso’s smart beta
category is whether it can reasonably be considered a full
replacement for its underlying market beta. This excludes
some strategies that would normally be bucketed within
smart beta because they are run as highly concentrated
strategies (e.g., 20-40 holdings). That might be a great
source of alpha (or risk adjusted returns), but might not
necessarily be a suitable replacement for the entire asset
class. The key, in our opinion, is that smart beta is a subset
of alternative indexing focused on fundamentals, not the
entire universe of alternative index methodologies.
Beware of Smart Beta Branding
In theory, using indexes that weight securities on
fundamentals like Price to Earnings Ratios(P/E), Price to
Book Ratios (P/B), Yield, Sales, Revenue, Return on Assets
(ROA), or Return on Equity (ROE) should produce returns
superior to traditional indexes with very high correlation to the
market, or rather, risk adjusted returns. With that said,
branding this concept as smart beta implies an evergreen
superiority and ignores perhaps what Toroso believes is the
single most important covenant to investing: Investing is a
social science.
Some examples: As access to real estate investment
vehicles increased in numbers and ease of use, we saw
correlations between real estate and equities rise, eliminating
the diversification benefits. As access to gold bullion
increased through ETPs, we saw the historically strong
inflation benefits of gold miners erode. As access to futures
based volatility ETPs grew, we saw persistent contango in
the market grow from about a 50% probability up to a 70%
probability. The concern we have with smart beta is that, like
all static methodologies imposed on social systems, they are
doomed to see minimized return advantages as they succeed
in asset gathering. As the investment landscape changes, an
investor must monitor the continued efficacy of the different
index strategies used.
Toroso’s Smart Beta Universe
Using the data compiled by ETFdb.com, Toroso established a
universe of so called smart beta or fundamentally weighted
ETFs. The composite includes 192 of the 818 ETFs that are
passive, non-leveraged equity ETFs. Surprisingly, although
fundamental weighting ETFs make up almost 23.5% of the
available product they only represent 11% of the assets. In
addition, it is important to note that the overwhelming focus
on various dividend weighted indexes represents close to
75% of this smart beta universe. Also, the average weighted
fee for these ETFs is 40 basis points (bps) versus 25 bps for
the rest of the equity ETF universe. Finally, the universe of
fundamentally weighted ETFs currently includes only 5 of the
199 fixed income products available today. Passive,
fundamentally weighted, fixed income is an area where
Toroso sees enormous need for product expansion and asset
gathering opportunity considering the current low interest rate
environment and high government debt load when compared
to historical averages. A non-traditional weighting could be
argued as even more applicable to fixed income markets
than equities.
In Conclusion
Toroso derives two conclusions from this subset of smart
beta indexes.
1. We believe capturing consistent enhanced returns
from a fixed index methodology, including smart
beta, is very much like betting on unicorns, an
impossible and therefore losing proposition.
However, there are many fundamentally weighted
indexes that can add value when understood and
used properly.
2. The key to investing with fundamentally weighted
indexes is to understand how those highlighted
fundamentals work in the current economic
environment. Contrary to popular belief these are
long-term tactical tools for asset allocation, not buy
and hold forever vehicles.
So stop betting unicorns and focus on finding the right horse
for the current race.
623 Fifth Avenue, 15th Floor  New York  NY 10022 torosoinv.com 3
Toroso Investments, LLC
March 2014
Appendix
Non-traditional
Indexes
Description
# of
ETPs
AUM
($mil)
Percentage of ETP Assets in Toroso’s Smart Beta Category
Business
Characteristics
Focus on characteristics that
active managers seek out
16 5,418
Equal Weighted Equal weighted based on size 17 9,241
Factor Based
(excluding style box)
Volatility, size, value, momentum 38 16,681
Fixed Income Non market cap fixed income 5 709
Risk Parity Equal weighted based on risk 1 22
Smart Beta Indexes
Multi-Fundamental
More than one fundamental
statistic
110 28,854
Earnings Weighted Focus on earnings fundamentals 6 1,921
Revenue Weighted Focus on revenue fundamentals 6 719
Dividend Payers Focus on high dividend payers 63 79,585
Dividend Growers Focus on high dividend growers 7 18,922
Totals 269 162,072
Notes:
1. Smart beta indexes are being repackaged and distributed by multiple entities. For example, the fundamental ETFs
sponsored by Charles Schwab utilize indexes from Russell, which license the process from Research Affiliates
Fundamental Indexes.
2. Toroso’s Small Caps: What Do You Want to Own? Commentary dated September 2013 notes an example where an
economic environment may support the use of a specific fundamental index. For more information visit
www.Torosoinv.com.
3. The following websites were used to gather the information provided in this commentary and can be additional
resources if you are interested in exploring the topic further.
http://www.wisdomtree.com
http://www.researchaffiliates.com
https://www.invesco.com
http://www.revenueshares.com
http://www.ftportfolios.com
Disclaimer -- This commentary is distributed for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting or
investment advice. Nothing in this commentary constitutes an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or service and any securities
discussed are presented for illustration purposes only. It should not be assumed that any securities discussed herein were or will prove to be profitable,
or that investment recommendations made by Toroso Investments, LLC (“Toroso”) will be profitable or will equal the investment performance of any
securities discussed. Furthermore, investments or strategies discussed may not be suitable for all investors and nothing herein should be considered a
recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Investors should make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment
objectives and financial circumstances and are encouraged to seek professional advice before making any decisions. While Toroso has gathered the
information presented from sources that it believes to be reliable, Toroso cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information presented
and the information presented should not be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed in this commentary are Toroso’s current opinions and do not
reflect the opinions of any affiliates. Furthermore, all opinions are current only as of the time made and are subject to change without notice. Toroso
does not have any obligation to provide revised opinions in the event of changed circumstances. All investment strategies and investments involve risk
of loss and nothing within this commentary should be construed as a guarantee of any specific outcome or profit. Securities discussed in this
commentary were selected for presentation because they serve as relevant examples of the respective points being made. Some of the securities
presented, however, may be or may have been held in advisory client accounts of Toroso. The securities presented do not represent all of the securities
previously or currently purchased, sold or recommended to Toroso’s advisory clients. Upon request, Toroso will furnish a list of all recommendations
made by Toroso within the immediately preceding period of one year.
22%
1%
1%
61%
15%
Multi-
Fundamental
Earnings
Weighted
Revenue
Weighted
Dividend
Payers
Dividend
Growers

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One point of view smart beta and betting on unicorns

  • 1. 623 Fifth Avenue, 15th Floor  New York  NY 10022 torosoinv.com 1 Toroso Investments, LLC March 2014 Smart Beta and Betting on Unicorns Research compiled by Michael Venuto, CIO Smart beta is the popular buzzword that describes an emerging trend of alternatively weighted indexes in the ETP world. This catchy term implies a panacea and evergreen solution to some of the common issues often associated with traditional market cap indexing. If this were the case, just like unicorns, the Holy Grail and the fountain of youth provide mythical solutions to our biggest concerns; smart beta should solve our investment conundrums. Still, even myths have value in our society. So let’s be clear and understand what smart beta is and how it should be used. Trying to define it clearly and succinctly is difficult. A web search provides only one independent definition. So based on this definition, it appears that any form of alternative indexing; such as equal weighting, factor based weighting, business characteristics, and other dynamic indexes would fall under the broad catchall basket of smart beta. Toroso believes a narrower definition is warranted here to provide the necessary transparency that avoids confusion and overlaps in the construction of well diversified investment portfolios. For our clients, Toroso defines smart beta as a subset of non-traditional indexing focused on weighting indexes based on clearly understood fundamentals. Where Did Smart Beta Come From? Before we review this category in greater detail, there is one question few have asked; how did this non-traditional ETP craze get started? Is it as simple as trying to get downside protection against future 2008-like environments? If so, why is everyone convinced this smart beta methodology as a whole can offer downside protection? Does it all boil down to the simplest of Wall Street slogans – Buy low, sell high? Probably – but do the smart beta strategies work all the time? In a traditional market cap weighted index, when an investment constituent is relatively small within its universe, it has a similarly relatively small weighting in its index and more than likely trades at the appropriate price for its specific fundamentals. As the investment grows in proportion to its universe, it increases its weighting within that index and, consequently, can trade more based on the fundamentals of the index as opposed to its own fundamentals. Bubbles are formed as areas of a particular investment universe grow to large portions of the entire universe. For example, look at energy stocks in 2008. We saw the energy sector climb from a representative level of 7% of the S&P 500 Index in 2006 to as much as 16% in the spring of 2008. Did the profits of these energy companies grow similarly over those years? Did their dividend payments? Would energy stocks have grown to as large of a portion of the index if it were weighted by their profits or dividends, equally weighted, or weighted by the investment’s contributed risk to the overall universe (risk parity)? Weighting the index by almost anything other than the market cap size of the companies, should, theoretically, provide an opportunity to increase your allocation in a particular investment within the index when a security is relatively Smart beta is a rather elusive term in modern finance. It lacks a strict definition and is also sometimes known as advanced beta, alternative beta or strategy indices. It can be understood as an umbrella term for rules based investment strategies that do not use the conventional market capitalization weights that have been criticized for delivering sub-optimal returns by overweighting overvalued stocks and, conversely, underweighting undervalued ones. Smart beta strategies attempt to deliver a better risk and return trade-off than conventional market cap weighted indices by using alternative weighting schemes based on measures such as volatility or dividends. Smart beta refers to an investment style where the manager passively follows an index designed to take advantage of perceived systematic biases or inefficiencies in the market. It therefore costs less than active management, since there is less day-to-day decision-making for the manager, but since it will, at the very least, have higher trading costs than traditional passive management (which minimizes those costs), it is a pricier option. (Source: Financial Times Lexicon, March 2014)
  • 2. 623 Fifth Avenue, 15th Floor  New York  NY 10022 torosoinv.com 2 Toroso Investments, LLC March 2014 undervalued and trim that security’s allocation when it’s relatively overvalued. Nice theory, but the various practices have not proven to be consistent in providing the expected results. Defining Smart Beta Defining smart beta through exclusion as seen earlier in this Commentary obfuscates the actual methods of indexing and can lead to misunderstanding by the ultimate client or investor. Again, let’s look at common definitions. According to the Merriam-Webster Dictionary, the word “smart” when used as an adjective means showing intelligence or good judgment. And “beta” is a measure of the risk potential of a stock or an investment portfolio expressed as a ratio of the stock's or portfolio's volatility to the volatility of the market as a whole. In the Appendix, we provide an outline of the non-traditional indexing universe and some simple definitions for each. The five main categories we use with our clients are business characteristics, equal weighted, factor-based, risk parity, and smart beta. The smart beta category implies the resulting index includes an almost complete representation of the market, such that you should expect at least market returns or beta, with the opportunity for some alpha derived from the smart use of fundamental weighting of the securities in the index. One additional “smell” screen for Toroso’s smart beta category is whether it can reasonably be considered a full replacement for its underlying market beta. This excludes some strategies that would normally be bucketed within smart beta because they are run as highly concentrated strategies (e.g., 20-40 holdings). That might be a great source of alpha (or risk adjusted returns), but might not necessarily be a suitable replacement for the entire asset class. The key, in our opinion, is that smart beta is a subset of alternative indexing focused on fundamentals, not the entire universe of alternative index methodologies. Beware of Smart Beta Branding In theory, using indexes that weight securities on fundamentals like Price to Earnings Ratios(P/E), Price to Book Ratios (P/B), Yield, Sales, Revenue, Return on Assets (ROA), or Return on Equity (ROE) should produce returns superior to traditional indexes with very high correlation to the market, or rather, risk adjusted returns. With that said, branding this concept as smart beta implies an evergreen superiority and ignores perhaps what Toroso believes is the single most important covenant to investing: Investing is a social science. Some examples: As access to real estate investment vehicles increased in numbers and ease of use, we saw correlations between real estate and equities rise, eliminating the diversification benefits. As access to gold bullion increased through ETPs, we saw the historically strong inflation benefits of gold miners erode. As access to futures based volatility ETPs grew, we saw persistent contango in the market grow from about a 50% probability up to a 70% probability. The concern we have with smart beta is that, like all static methodologies imposed on social systems, they are doomed to see minimized return advantages as they succeed in asset gathering. As the investment landscape changes, an investor must monitor the continued efficacy of the different index strategies used. Toroso’s Smart Beta Universe Using the data compiled by ETFdb.com, Toroso established a universe of so called smart beta or fundamentally weighted ETFs. The composite includes 192 of the 818 ETFs that are passive, non-leveraged equity ETFs. Surprisingly, although fundamental weighting ETFs make up almost 23.5% of the available product they only represent 11% of the assets. In addition, it is important to note that the overwhelming focus on various dividend weighted indexes represents close to 75% of this smart beta universe. Also, the average weighted fee for these ETFs is 40 basis points (bps) versus 25 bps for the rest of the equity ETF universe. Finally, the universe of fundamentally weighted ETFs currently includes only 5 of the 199 fixed income products available today. Passive, fundamentally weighted, fixed income is an area where Toroso sees enormous need for product expansion and asset gathering opportunity considering the current low interest rate environment and high government debt load when compared to historical averages. A non-traditional weighting could be argued as even more applicable to fixed income markets than equities. In Conclusion Toroso derives two conclusions from this subset of smart beta indexes. 1. We believe capturing consistent enhanced returns from a fixed index methodology, including smart beta, is very much like betting on unicorns, an impossible and therefore losing proposition. However, there are many fundamentally weighted indexes that can add value when understood and used properly. 2. The key to investing with fundamentally weighted indexes is to understand how those highlighted fundamentals work in the current economic environment. Contrary to popular belief these are long-term tactical tools for asset allocation, not buy and hold forever vehicles. So stop betting unicorns and focus on finding the right horse for the current race.
  • 3. 623 Fifth Avenue, 15th Floor  New York  NY 10022 torosoinv.com 3 Toroso Investments, LLC March 2014 Appendix Non-traditional Indexes Description # of ETPs AUM ($mil) Percentage of ETP Assets in Toroso’s Smart Beta Category Business Characteristics Focus on characteristics that active managers seek out 16 5,418 Equal Weighted Equal weighted based on size 17 9,241 Factor Based (excluding style box) Volatility, size, value, momentum 38 16,681 Fixed Income Non market cap fixed income 5 709 Risk Parity Equal weighted based on risk 1 22 Smart Beta Indexes Multi-Fundamental More than one fundamental statistic 110 28,854 Earnings Weighted Focus on earnings fundamentals 6 1,921 Revenue Weighted Focus on revenue fundamentals 6 719 Dividend Payers Focus on high dividend payers 63 79,585 Dividend Growers Focus on high dividend growers 7 18,922 Totals 269 162,072 Notes: 1. Smart beta indexes are being repackaged and distributed by multiple entities. For example, the fundamental ETFs sponsored by Charles Schwab utilize indexes from Russell, which license the process from Research Affiliates Fundamental Indexes. 2. Toroso’s Small Caps: What Do You Want to Own? Commentary dated September 2013 notes an example where an economic environment may support the use of a specific fundamental index. For more information visit www.Torosoinv.com. 3. The following websites were used to gather the information provided in this commentary and can be additional resources if you are interested in exploring the topic further. http://www.wisdomtree.com http://www.researchaffiliates.com https://www.invesco.com http://www.revenueshares.com http://www.ftportfolios.com Disclaimer -- This commentary is distributed for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting or investment advice. Nothing in this commentary constitutes an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or service and any securities discussed are presented for illustration purposes only. It should not be assumed that any securities discussed herein were or will prove to be profitable, or that investment recommendations made by Toroso Investments, LLC (“Toroso”) will be profitable or will equal the investment performance of any securities discussed. Furthermore, investments or strategies discussed may not be suitable for all investors and nothing herein should be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Investors should make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial circumstances and are encouraged to seek professional advice before making any decisions. While Toroso has gathered the information presented from sources that it believes to be reliable, Toroso cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information presented and the information presented should not be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed in this commentary are Toroso’s current opinions and do not reflect the opinions of any affiliates. Furthermore, all opinions are current only as of the time made and are subject to change without notice. Toroso does not have any obligation to provide revised opinions in the event of changed circumstances. All investment strategies and investments involve risk of loss and nothing within this commentary should be construed as a guarantee of any specific outcome or profit. Securities discussed in this commentary were selected for presentation because they serve as relevant examples of the respective points being made. Some of the securities presented, however, may be or may have been held in advisory client accounts of Toroso. The securities presented do not represent all of the securities previously or currently purchased, sold or recommended to Toroso’s advisory clients. Upon request, Toroso will furnish a list of all recommendations made by Toroso within the immediately preceding period of one year. 22% 1% 1% 61% 15% Multi- Fundamental Earnings Weighted Revenue Weighted Dividend Payers Dividend Growers