1. BA N G L A D E S H CO U N T RY ST U DY i
Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change
BANGL ADESH

2. ii E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E
EACC Publications and Reports
1. Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change: Synthesis Report
2. Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change: Social Synthesis Report
3. The Cost to Developing Countries of Adapting to Climate Change: New Methods
and Estimates
Country Case Studies:
1. Bangladesh: Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change
2. Bolivia: Adaptation to Climate Change: Vulnerability Assessment and Economic Aspects
3. Ethiopia : Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change
4. Ghana: Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change
5. Mozambique: Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change
6. Samoa: Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change
7. Vietnam: Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change
Discussion Papers:
1. Economics of Adaptation to Extreme Weather Events in Developing Countries
2. The Costs of Adapting to Climate Change for Infrastructure
3. Adaptation of Forests to Climate Change
4. Costs of Agriculture Adaptation to Climate Change
5. Cost of Adapting Fisheries to Climate Change
6. Costs of Adaptation Related to Industrial and Municipal Water Supply and
Riverine Flood Protection
7. Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change-Ecosystem Services
8. Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Global Hydrology and Water Availability
9. Climate Change Scenarios and Climate Data
10. Economics of Coastal Zone Adaptation to Climate Change
11. Costs of Adapting to Climate Change for Human Health in Developing Countries
12. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Bangladesh
13. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Bolivia
14. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Ethiopia
15. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Ghana
16. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Mozambique
17. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Vietnam
18. Participatory Scenario Development Approaches for Identifying Pro-Poor Adaptation Options
19. Participatory Scenario Development Approaches for Pro-Poor Adaptation: Capacity
Development Manual

3. BA N G L A D E S H CO U N T RY ST U DY i
Economics of Adaptation
to Climate Change
BANG L ADESH
Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Government of the Netherlands

4. ii E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E
© 2010 The World Bank Group
1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
Telephone: 202-473-1000
Internet: www.worldbank.org
E-mail: feedback@worldbank.org
All rights reserved.
This volume is a product of the World Bank Group. The World Bank Group does not guarantee the accuracy of the data
included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not
imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank Group concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or
acceptance of such boundaries.
RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS
The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission
may be a violation of applicable law. The World Bank Group encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant
permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly.
For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright
Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone 978-750-8400; fax 978-750-4470;
Internet: www.copyright.com.
All images © The World Bank Photo Library except
Front Cover © National Geographic

5. BA N G L A D E S H CO U N T RY ST U DY iii
Contents
Acronyms vii
Acknowledgments ix
Executive Summary xi
Climate hazards: a risk to achieving development objectives xi
Adaptation essential for development xii
Objectives and scope of study xiii
Results xv
Lessons and recommendations xx
1 Introduction 1
Motivation and context for the EACC study 1
Context for the Bangladesh case study 1
Climate change and Bangladesh 4
Scope of this report 4
2 Existing Climate Variability and Climate Change 7
Existing climate variability 7
Climate change 10
3 Tropical Cyclones and Storm Surges 17
Historical vulnerability to tropical cyclones and storm surges 18
Adaptation measures currently in place 19
Estimating potential damage and adaptation cost 25
Implications for Adaptation Strategy 42
4 Inland Flooding 47
Historical Vulnerability of Inland Flooding 47
Estimating adaptation cost 50
Implications for adaptation strategy 63

6. iv E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E
5 Agriculture and Food Security 67
Background 67
Projected future climatic conditions 68
Direct impacts on agriculture 69
Economy-wide impacts and responses 73
Implications for adaptation strategy 75
6 Local Perspectives on Adaptation 79
Background 79
Overview of hotspots 79
Vulnerability to Climate Change 82
Adaptation practices 83
Preferred Adaptation Options 85
Implications for adaptation strategy 86
7 Limitations of the Study 89
8 Summary of Findings 93
References 100
Annexes (available on line at www.worldbank.org/eacc)
Annex 1. Major cyclones crossing Bangladesh coast (1960–2009)
Annex 2. Tracks for major cyclones that crossed the Bangladesh coast, 1960–2009
Annex 3. Cyclone Tracks used to simulate inundation risk under the Climate Change Scenario
Annex 4. Description of Cyclone and Bay of Bengal Model
Annex 5. Polders Likely to be overtopped in the Baseline and Climate Change Scenarios
Annex 6. Estimated cost to prevent overtopping of embankments by 2050
Annex 7. Earthwork Computation with an illustrative Example
Annex 8. Determining additional vents required to reduce drainage congestion in coastal polders
Annex 9. Floods in Bangladesh
Annex 10. Spatial Vulnerability of Bangladesh to various types of floods
Annex 11. Classification of floods in Bangladesh
Annex 12. Flood-affected areas in Bangladesh, 1954–2007
Annex 13. Chronology of above normal floods in Bangladesh
Annex 14. Damages from major floods in Bangladesh
Annex 15. Models used for flood hydrology
Annex 16. Social component methodology

7. BA N G L A D E S H CO U N T RY ST U DY v
Tables
Table ES.1 Scope of study in the context of programs and activities included in the xiv
Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan
Table ES.2 Cost of adapting to tropical cyclones and storm surges by 2050 ($ millions) xvi
Table ES.3 Total adaption cost for inland flooding by 2050 ($ millions) xvii
Table 2.1 Peak discharge and timing during extreme flood years 8
Table 2.2 Water level trends at different stations along the coastline 9
Table 2.3 Estimated average change (%) in discharge 12
Table 2.4 Sea level rise impacts on flood land types 15
Table 3.1 Typical storm surge characteristics for cyclones in Bangladesh 19
Table 3.2 Economic indicators Bangladesh: Current and 2050 25
Table 3.3 Potential Inundation Risk Exposure Area (sq km) 29
Table 3.4 Population exposed to inundation risk (million) 29
Table 3.5 Road exposed to inundation risk (km) 29
Table 3.6 Area affected in a single cyclone with a 10-year return period (sq km) 31
Table 3.7 Population affected in a single cyclone with a 10-year return period (millions) 31
Table 3.8 Roads affected in a single cyclone with a 10-year return period (km) 31
Table 3.9 Damages and losses during a single Super cyclonic storm by economic sector 32
Table 3.10 Cropped area exposed to inundation risk in the baseline and 34
climate change scenarios (ha)
Table 3.11 Damages and losses from Cyclone Sidr (2007) by economic sector 37
Table 3.12 Additional damages and losses due to climate change in 2050 37
Table 3.13 Estimated cost for height enhancement of coastal polders ($ millions) 40
Table 3.14 Cost to increase geographic precision of cyclone and surge warnings 43
Table 3.15 Cost of adapting to climate change by 2050 ($ millions) 43
Table 3.16 Sequencing of adaption options for tropical cyclones/storm surges 44
Table 4.1 Flood classification in Bangladesh 48
Table 4.2 Impacts and losses for recent exceptional or catastrophic floods 48
Table 4.3 Growth trends in total GDP and agricultural GDP in relation to major flood events 51
Table 4.4 Flood land classes (based on 24 hour duration inundation) 54
Table 4.5 Rural Population Exposed to Inundation risk 54
Table 4.6 Rural population density by flood land class (people per sq km) 55
Table 4.7 Areas with changes in inundation depth due to climate change 56
Table 4.8 Length of road by type at additional inundation risk from climate change in 2050 (km) 58
Table 4.9 Adaptation cost for roads by type of road (Tk millions) 59
Table 4.10 Railway track at risk of additional inundation due to climate change by 2050 (km) 59
Table 4.11 Cost per kilometer to raise different railway tracks upto 0.5 meters ($/km) 60
Table 4.12 Cost of earthwork ($ per km) by type of rail track and inundation depth (m) 60
Table 4.13 Adaptation cost for railways ($ millions) 60
Table 4.14 Embankments exposed to additional inundation risk due to climate change (km) 60
Table 4.15 Itemized cost for raising embankments ($ millions) 61
Table 4.16 Total adaption cost for inland flooding ($ millions) 64
Table 6.1 Location of eight hotspots selected for based of hazard 81

8. vi E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E
Figures
Figure 1.1 Poverty and climate hazards 3
Figure 2.1 Annual and seasonal (mm) precipitation averaged across meteorological stations by year 8
Figure 2.2 Monthly, annual, and seasonal temperature changes 10
Figure 2.3 Monthly, annual, and seasonal precipitation changes 10
Figure 2.4 Total change in national flooded area for 2050 in the A2 and B1 scenarios 13
Figure 3.1 Location of coastal polders in Bangladesh 20
Figure 3.2 Location of cyclone shelters in coastal areas 23
Figure 3.3 Population density in coastal areas in relation to areas of inundation risk 24
Figure 3.4 Inundation risk exposure map—baseline scenario 27
Figure 3.5 Inundation risk exposure map—climate change scenario 28
Figure 3.6 Population under povery in relation to inundation risk 30
Figure 3.7 Location of overtopped polders 38
Figure 4.1 Extent of above-normal flooding in Bangladesh, 1950–2009 49
Figure 4.2 Growth trends in total GDP and agricultural GDP in relation to major flood events 49
Figure 4.3 Flood map – 24 Hour Duration Flood (baseline scenario) 52
Figure 4.4 Flood map – 24 Hour Duration Flood (climate change scenario) 53
Figure 4.5 Change in inhundation depth due to climate change 56
Figure 5.1 Percentage change in national potential production due to temperature,
precipitation, and CO2 70
Figure 5.2 Percentage change in national potential production from flood damages only 71
Figure 5.3 Percentage change in national potential production combined effects 72
Figure 5.4 National rice production (Metric tons) 73
Figure 5.5 Share of discounted GDP 73
Figure 5.6 Net revenues and overall social preference of adaption measures 77
Figure 6.1 Poverty and climate hazards 80
Figure 6.2 Map of Bangladesh showing the eight hotspots 81
Figure 6.3 Livelihood capital assets in eight hotspots 83

9. BA N G L A D E S H CO U N T RY ST U DY vii
Acronyms
AR4 Fourth Assessment Report IWM Institute of Water Modeling
BARI Bangladesh Agricultural Research MJO Madden-Julien Oscillation
BBS Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics MSL Mean sea level
BCAS Bangladesh Center for Advanced Studies NCA Net cultivable area
BMD Bangladesh Meteorology Department NGO Nongovernmental organization
BRRI Bangladesh Rice Research Institute RCM Regional climate model
CEGIS Center for Environmental and Geographic SRTM Shuttle Radar Topography Mission
Information Services TAR Third Assessment Report
CGE Computable general equilibrium TRMM Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission
CO2 Carbon dioxide USGS United States Geologic Survey
DAE Department of Agriculture Extension
DEM Digital elevation model
DSSAT Decision support system for UNITS OF MEASURE
agro-technology transfer ac acres
ENSO El Nino-Southern Oscillation ha hectares
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the kg kilograms
United Nations MT metric tons
FCDI Flood control and drainage infrastructure
FFWC Flood Forecast and Warning Center
GBM Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS
GCM Global circulation (or climate) model US $1.00 = Tk 70.00
GDP Gross domestic product (unless otherwise noted, all dollars are U.S. dollars)
GOB Government of Bangladesh
GTOPO Global topography FISCAL YEAR (FY) July 1–June 30
HYV High-yielding variety
IFPRI International Food Policy Research
Institute
IMD Indian Meteorological Department
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change

10. viii E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E

11. BA N G L A D E S H CO U N T RY ST U DY ix
Acknowledgments
The EACC study has been conducted as a partner- Fankhauser, Ravi Kanbur, and Joel Smith; and
ship among the World Bank, which led its technical to the study’s peer reviewers, Proditpo Gosh,
aspects; the governments of the United Kingdom, Michael Steen Jacobsen, Ravi Kanbur, Sanjay
Netherlands, and Switzerland, which provided fund- Kathuria, Lalita Moorty, and David Wheeler.
ing; and the participating case study countries.
Numerous comments and suggestions were also
This report has been prepared by a team led by received from a large number of colleagues
Kiran Pandey (Coordinator EACC country stud- during the course of the study, and the team is
ies) and comprising Susmita Dasgupta, Anne thankful to all of them. From the World Bank,
Kuriakose, Khawaja M. Minnatullah, Winston they include Ian Noble, Apurva Sanghi, and
Yu, Nilufar Ahmad (former TTL), and Shakil Maria Sarraf. From outside the Bank, they
Ferdausi (World Bank), Mainul Huq, Zahirul Huq include Gordon Hughes, Robert Schneider, Joel
Khan, Manjur Murshed Zahid Ahmed, Ainun Smith and James Thurlow. The team is also
Nishat, Malik Fida Khan, Nandan Mukherjee, grateful for the timely feedback by participants
M. Asaduzzaman, S. M. Zulfiqar Ali, and Iqbal in three consultations in Dhaka—held in May
Alam Khan (consultants). The team was sup- 2009, November 2009, and May 2010—and
ported by Janet Bably Halder, Angie Harney, and two case study workshops in Washington in June
Hawanty Page. 2009 and January 2010.
The study team is grateful for the general guid- We would also like to thank Robert Livernash for
ance of Sergio Margulis (TTL) of the Economics editorial services, Jim Cantrell for editorial input
of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC) proj- and production coordination, and Hugo Mansilla
ect. EACC includes a global track and six other for editorial and production support.
country cases studies. The EACC team also ben-
efited from ongoing interaction with the Environ- The study team is also grateful for the financial
ment Department’s management, particularly support provided by the partners of the EACC
James Warren Evans and Michelle de Nevers. study, the governments of the United King-
dom, Netherlands, and Switzerland and the
The team is grateful to the advisory committee government of the Bangladesh for facilitating
for the overall EACC study, comprising Sam the study.

12. x E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E

13. BA N G L A D E S H CO U N T RY ST U DY xi
Executive Summary
Climate Hazards: rural poor in low-lying coastal areas are also dev-
A Risk to Achieving astated by saline water intrusion into aquifers and
groundwater and land submergence. In addition,
Development Objectives seasonal droughts occasionally hit the northwest-
ern region.
Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable
countries in the world to climate risks. Investments during the past 50 years have
Two-thirds of the nation is less than 5 meters increased the resilience of Bangladesh to
above sea level and is susceptible to river and climate-related hazards. Since the sixties,
rainwater flooding, particularly during the mon- the government of Bangladesh has invested $10
soon. Due to its location at the tail end of the billion on structural (polders, cyclone shelters,
delta formed by the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and cyclone-resistant housing) and non-structural
Meghna (GBM) rivers, the timing, location, and (early warning and awareness raising systems)
extent of flooding depends on the precipitation in disaster reduction measures and enhanced its
the entire GBM basin, not just on the 7 percent disaster preparedness systems. These investments
of the basin that lies within the country. Nearly have significantly reduced damages and losses
80 percent of the country’s annual precipita- from extreme climatic events over time, especially
tion occurs during the summer monsoon season, in terms of deaths and injuries. In addition, rural
when these rivers have a combined peak flow of households have adapted their farming systems
180,000 m3/sec, the second highest in the world. to the “normal floods” that typically inundate
Once every three to five years, up to two-thirds about a quarter of the country by switching from
of Bangladesh is inundated by floods that cause low-yielding deepwater rice to high-yielding rice
substantial damage to infrastructure, housing, crops. As a result, agricultural production has
agriculture, and livelihoods. Low-lying coastal actually risen over the past few decades. Rising
areas are also at risk from tidal floods and severe incomes have also enabled an increasing propor-
cyclones. On average once every three years, a tion of households to live in homes that are more
severe cyclone makes landfall on the Bangladesh resilient to cyclones, storm surges, and floods.
coastline, either before or after the monsoon, cre-
ating storm surges that are sometimes in excess Despite the increased resilience, climate-
of 10 meters. Crops and the livelihoods of the related disasters continue to result in

14. xii E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E
large economic losses — reducing eco- originating in the Bay of Bengal are also expected
nomic growth and slowing progress in to occur more frequently as a result of warmer
reducing poverty. The 1998 monsoon flood ocean surface temperatures. Cyclone-induced
inundated over two- thirds of Bangladesh and storm surges are further exacerbated by a poten-
resulted in damages and losses of over $2 billion, tial rise in sea level of over 27 cm by 2050. Most
or 4.8 percent of GDP. The losses were evenly GCMs predict precipitation increases of up to 20
split among agriculture, infrastructure, and indus- percent during July, August, and September for
try/commerce. Similarly, Cyclone Sidr resulted in the GBM basin. As a result, median discharges
damages and losses of $1.7 billion, or 2.6 percent in the three rivers during the summer months are
of GDP in 2007. About half the losses were in the expected to increase between 6 and 18 percent by
housing sector, followed by agriculture and infra- the 2050s. Unlike temperature changes, the pre-
structure. When averaged over the past decade, dicted changes in precipitation (and discharges)
the direct annual costs from natural disasters to through 2050 are not distinct from the historically
the national economy—in terms of damages to observed variability for all months and seasons,
infrastructure and livelihoods and losses from reflecting the large variability in precipitation
forgone production—have been estimated at 0.5 levels historically and even larger uncertainty in
percent to 1 percent of GDP. These statistics do future precipitation predictions.
not include the significant loss of life that has also
occurred during these events. These damages
and losses are geographically concentrated in Adaptation Essential
areas that also have higher concentrations of the for Development
poor, affecting them disproportionately. They live
in thatch or tin houses that are more susceptible
to direct damages from cyclones, storm surges, The Bangladesh Climate Change Strat-
and floods. Additionally, most rural households egy and Action Plan, adopted by the gov-
depend on weather-sensitive sectors—agricul- ernment of Bangladesh in 2009, seeks to
ture, fisheries, and other natural resources—for guide activities and programs related to
their livelihood. Destruction of their assets and climate change in Bangladesh. Until the
livelihoods leaves the poor with a limited capacity past few years, climatic risks have been poorly
to recover. reflected in national policies and programs Ban-
gladesh. The country launched the National
A warmer and wetter future climate that Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) in 2005,
goes beyond historical variations will which identified 15 priority activities that were
exacerbate the existing climatic risks subsequently updated to 45 programs in 2009.
and increase vulnerability by increasing The first sectoral policy to explicitly include cli-
the extent and depth of inundation from mate change impacts and actions—the Coastal
flooding and storm surges and by reduc- Zone Policy—was adopted in 2005. Climate
ing arable land due to sea level rise and change has been a key concern in the redraft-
salinity intrusion. The median predictions ing of the National Water Management Plan
from the general circulation models (GCMs) are (NWMP). Recognizing that a wide range of poli-
for Bangladesh to be 1.5°C warmer and 4 percent cies have the potential to address climate-related
wetter by the 2050s. The median temperature hazards and vulnerability, the government devel-
predictions exceed the 90th percentile of his- oped and adopted through a consultative pro-
torical variability across GCMs for July, August, cess the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy
and September by the 2030s. Severe cyclones and Action Plan 2009 to guide economywide

15. BA N G L A D E S H CO U N T RY ST U DY xiii
efforts to adapt to climate change and to miti- Objectives and Scope
gate greenhouse gases. It identifies three climate
hazards—tropical cyclones/storm surges, inland
of Study
flooding, and droughts. The strategy contains
44 programs formulated around six themes— The objective of this study is to help
food security/social protection/health, com- decision makers in Bangladesh to better
prehensive disaster management, infrastructure, understand and assess the risks posed
research/knowledge management, mitigation/ by climate change and to better design
low carbon development, and capacity build- strategies to adapt to climate change. The
ing/institutional strengthening (see Table ES.1). study takes as its starting point the BCCSAP. It
Thirty-four programs listed under five themes builds upon and strengthens the analytical mod-
are wholly or partially focused on adaptation. els and quantitative assessment tools already
The BCCSAP includes an implementation time- in use in Bangladesh in support of the research
frame for the 44 identified programs and is esti- and knowledge management theme of BCCSAP.
mated to require $500 million in the first two These tools are used to (a) examine the potential
years and about $5 billion in the first five years for physical impacts of climate change; (b) assess the
full implementation. The government allocated associated damages and losses in key economic
$100 million of its own resources in FY 2009–10 sectors, on vulnerable populations, and in the
and has budgeted $100 million in FY2010–11 overall economy; (c) estimate spatially disaggre-
toward actions contained in the strategy; it is gated costs of adaptation options that can reduce
actively seeking additional resources to imple- these impacts; and (d) sequence the adaptation
ment the full strategy. actions over time.
In a fiscally constrained environment, The scope of this study is more limited
sequencing of adaptation actions is a than the BCCSAP, so the reported costs
necessity, particularly given the large represent a lower bound on the total adap-
uncertainties about the magnitude and tation costs in Bangladesh. As highlighted in
timing of the added risks from climate Table ES.1, this study encompasses about 21 of
change. The fundamental problem of policy the identified adaptation actions, of which 11 are
making in the face of climate change is one of examined quantitatively as well. Some important
uncertainty with regard to climate outcomes. and likely expensive adaptation activities that
Shifting resources toward more productive uses have not been included in this study are urban
and away from less productive ones in the context drainage, river training works, dredging and
of uncertainty is already a principal aim of devel- desiltation, and protection of ecosystems.
opment for a fiscally constrained government.
Climate change makes this task more complex. The study was developed in four discrete
Uncertainty has important effects in any assess- and somewhat independent components
ment of the impacts of climate change and on with varying degrees of analytical depth
the selection and ranking of adaptation actions. and quantification. When feasible, common
These include prioritizing adaptation actions with assumptions and similar methodologies were used
more certain outcomes with the greatest near- to increase comparability and cohesion among
term benefits, while also investing to develop the the components. The first two components of
information base that can reduce the uncertain- the study focus on two of the hazards identified
ties and guide the evolution of adaptation actions in the BCCSAP—tropical cyclones/storm surges
over time. and inland flooding. They assess the added risk

16. xiv E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E
Table ES.1 Scope of study in the context of programs and activities included
in the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan*
Theme Immediate Short Term Medium to Long Term
Food, Water and sanitation program in Institutional capacity and research
security, climate vulnerable areas towards climate-resilient cultivars and
social their dissemination
Livelihood protection in
protection and
ecologically fragile areas Development of climate-resilient
health
cropping systems
Livelihood protection of
vulnerable socioeconomic groups Adaptation against drought, salinity
(including women) submergence and heat
Adaptation in fisheries sector
Adaptation in livestock sector
Adaptation in health sector
Comprehensive Improvement of floods forecasting Risk management against loss of
disaster and early warning system income and property
management
Improvement of cyclone and storm-
surge warning
Awareness raising and public educa-
tion towards climate resilience
Infrastructure Repair and maintenance of existing Planning, design, and implementation Repair and maintenance of existing
flood embankments of resuscitation of networks of rivers coastal polders
and khals through
Repair and maintenance of existing Improvement of urban drainage
dredging and de-siltation work
cyclone shelter
Adaptation against floods
Adaptation against future cyclones
and storm-surges
Planning, design, and construction of
river training works
Research, and Establishment of a center for research, Preparatory studies for adaptation Monitoring of ecosystem and
knowledge knowledge management, and training against sea level rise (SLR) and its biodiversity changes and their impacts
management climate change impacts
Macroeconomic and sectoral
Climate change modeling at national economic impacts of CC
and sub-national levels
Monitoring of internal and external
migration of adversely impacted popu-
lation and providing support to them
through capacity building for their
rehabilitation in new environment
Monitoring of impact on various issues
related to management of tourism in
Bangladesh and implementation of
priority action plan
Mitigation and Renewable energy development Rapid expansion of energy saving Improved energy efficiency in produc-
low carbon devices e.g. (CFL) tion and consumption of energy
Management of urban waste
development
Improving in energy consumption Gas exploration and reservoir
Afforestation and reforestation
pattern in transport sector and management
programme
options for mitigation
Development of coal mines and coal-
fired power station(s)
Lower emissions from agricultural land
Energy and water efficiency in built
environment
Capacity Revision of sectoral policies for climate Strengthening human resource
building and resilience capacity
institutional
Mainstreaming climate change in Strengthening gender consideration in
strengthening
national, sectoral and spatial develop- climate change management
ment programs
Strengthening institutional capacity for
climate change management
Mainstreaming climate change in
the media
* Quantitative and Quantitative Analysis, Qualitative Analysis only, Not covered

17. BA N G L A D E S H CO U N T RY ST U DY xv
of these hazards due to climate change relative all 19 severe cyclones that have made landfall
to the existing risks, identify specific assets and in Bangladesh during the past 50 years indicate
activities that are at risk, and estimate the cost that they would overtop 43 of the existing pol-
of adaptation actions to protect against these ders. Further, super-cyclonic storms (with winds
risks. Sequencing of these actions is facilitated by greater than 220 km/hr) have a return period of
detailed spatially disaggregated identification of around 10 years; currently, a single such storm
adaptation options and associated cost estimates. would result in damages and losses averaging 2.4
In addition, the future economic damages from percent of GDP. Climate change is expected to
a single super cyclonic event are also estimated, increase the severity of cyclones and the surges
both with current risks and with the added risks they induce by 2050. When combined with an
from climate change to provide a point of refer- expected rise in sea level, cyclone-induced storm
ence for comparing the cost of adapting to this surges are projected to inundate an additional 15
risk. The third component of the study focuses percent of the coastal area. The depth of inun-
on both the direct and economy-wide impacts dation is also expected to increase. While eco-
of climate change on agriculture and food secu- nomic expansion is expected to expose additional
rity from a full range of climate risks, includ- assets to inundation risk by 2050, expected struc-
ing droughts (the third hazard identified in the tural shifts in the economy away from climate-
BCCSAP), floods, sea level rise, warmer tempera- sensitive sectors, increases in urbanization, and
tures, and increased CO2 concentrations. While a greater affordability of cyclone-resilient housing
full set of adaptation options and the public sector is expected to limit the damages and losses from
costs to address these impacts are not quantita- a single severe storm in 2050 to around $9.2 bil-
tively analyzed, the relative desirability of trans- lion, or 0.6 percent of GDP. About half of these
ferring existing coping strategies to newly affected damages and losses would occur even without the
areas is examined. The final component provides added risks from climate change, so the incremen-
local perspectives on adaptation as seen by the tal damages from the added risk from a changing
poor and most vulnerable population. It exam- climate are around $4.6 billion.
ines the determinants of the adaptive capacity of
the vulnerable populations and solicits from local, Adaptation. Existing investments, which have
regional and national stakeholders—through the reduced the impacts of cyclone-induced storm
use of participatory scenarios—the types of pub- surges, provide a solid foundation upon which to
lic support that would best enable the vulnerable undertake additional measures to reduce potential
population to cope with potential climate change damages now and in the future. However, these
impacts. investments are not sufficient to address the exist-
ing risks, much less the future risk from climate
change. By 2050, total investments of $5,516 mil-
Results lion and $112 million in annual recurrent costs
will be needed to protect against storm surge risk,
The impacts of climate change and adaptation including that from climate change (Table ES.2).
options analyzed and the cost of these options from
each study component are summarized below. Of this, strengthening 43 polders against existing
risks requires investments of $2,462 million and
(1) Tropical cyclones and storm surges annual recurrent costs of $49 million. Even if the
Impacts. The risk from cyclones and the storm numerous cyclone shelter construction programs
surges they induce spans the entire Bangladesh provide sufficient capacity to protect all current
coastline. Most of it is currently protected by 123 coastal area residents in at-risk areas, an additional
polders constructed since the 1960s. Analyses of 2,930 shelters will need to be constructed by 2050

18. xvi E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E
Table ES.2 Cost of adapting to tropical cyclones and storm surges
by 2050 ($ millions)
CC Scenario
Baseline Scenario (additional risk due (total risk=
(existing risks) to CC) existing + CC)
Adaptation Option IC ARC IC ARC IC ARC
Polders 2,462 49 893 18 3,355 67
Afforestation 75 75
Cyclone shelters 628 13 1,219 24 1,847 37
Resistant housing 200 200
Early warning system 39 8 39 8
Total 3,090 62 2,426 50 5,516 112
CC = climate change; IC = investment cost; ARC = annual recurrent cost
at an estimated cost of $628 million to accommo- even under current risks, and (c) upgrading the
date the expected population growth in coastal spatial and temporal resolution of forecasting and
areas even under existing risk. Design innovations early warning systems. These actions should be
and targeted subsidies can reduce the private cost accompanied by research to improve knowledge
of cyclone-resistant housing and hence the need about the timing and spatial distribution of added
for an even larger number of shelters. risks from climate change, which can guide the
pace of additional adaptation efforts.
Protecting against the added risks from climate
change will require further strengthening of 59 (2) Inland monsoon flooding
polders; afforesting sea-facing polders to reduce Impacts. Bangladesh has been incurring signifi-
the hydraulic load of storm surges; constructing cant damages in terms of crop losses, destruction
5,702 additional cyclone shelters; providing incen- of roads and other infrastructure, disruption to
tives to increase affordability of cyclone resistant industry and commerce, and injuries and losses
housing; improving the spatial and temporal reso- in human lives from severe inland monsoon
lution of forecasting and early warning systems; floods once every three to five years. The 1998
and expanding disaster preparedness programs flood inundated over two-thirds of Bangladesh
in 19 additional districts. These additional mea- and resulted in damages and losses of over $2 bil-
sures are expected to require an additional $2,426 lion, or 4.8 percent of GDP. Increased monsoon
million in investments and $50 million in annual precipitation, higher transboundary water flows,
recurrent costs. and rising sea levels resulting from climate change
are expected to increase the depth and extent of
Recognizing the uncertainties in the timing and inundation. The impacts of climate change are
magnitude of the added risks from climate change, measured by comparing the inundation levels
a prudent strategy would begin by addressing the predicted by simulations using the MIROC 3.2
existing risks that current coastal residents face Global Circulation Model predictions under the
through (a) continued support for the construction A2 emission scenario (this simulation predicts the
of an adequate number of multipurpose shelters largest increase in runoff) with the inundation lev-
to protect the current populations from the exist- els in the 1998 floods. Climate change places an
ing risks, (b) upgrading and strengthening 43 exist- additional 4 percent of land area at risk of inunda-
ing polders that are at risk of being overtopped tion. Further, inundation depth increases in most

19. BA N G L A D E S H CO U N T RY ST U DY xvii
areas currently at risk, with increases greater than ES.3). The full cost of protection in 2050 will also
15 cm in about 544 km2, or 0.4 percent of the require addressing the existing risks of flooding,
country. These are underestimates of the actual which are likely to be of the same of order of
increased risk from climate change, as they do not magnitude. Recognizing the uncertainties in the
account for the frequent river course changes. timing and magnitude of the added risks from cli-
The total inundation risks in 2050 are actually mate change, a prudent strategy would begin by
substantial, considering the increased risks are addressing the existing risks of monsoon flooding
measured relative to the 1998 flood. Despite together with research on improving the temporal
the higher risks, the rural population exposed and spatial resolution of flood predictions, which
to flooding, however, is expected to decline from can guide additional actions.
current levels due to the rural-to-urban migration
that is projected to occur by 2050. 3) Agriculture and food security
Impacts. The combined effects of rising tempera-
Adaptation. Rural households have adapted their tures, higher precipitation, CO2 fertilization,
farming systems to the “normal floods” that typi- severe flooding, occasional seasonal droughts, and
cally inundate about a quarter of the country loss of arable land in coastal areas resulting from
every year by switching to high-yielding rice crops climate change are expected to result in declines
instead of low-yielding deepwater rice. As a result, in rice production of 3.9 percent each year, or a
agricultural production has actually risen over cumulative total of 80 million tons over 2005–50.
the past few decades. High-magnitude, low-fre- Overall, climate change is expected to decrease
quency floods such as the 1998 floods, however, do agricultural GDP by 3.1 percent each year—a
result in significant damages. The cost of protect- cumulative $36 billion in lost value-added—dur-
ing against the existing risks of severe monsoon ing 2005–50. The economic losses increase by
flooding was not estimated largely because of data threefold—to a cumulative $129 billion—when
limitations. The additional cost to protect (a) road the indirect impacts on complementary industries
networks and railways, (b) river embankments to and the dynamic effects on asset formation and
protect highly productive agricultural lands, (c) productivity growth are included. This is equiva-
drainage systems, and (d) erosion control measures lent to an average of $2.9 billion per year—and
for high-value assets such as towns against the as high as $5.1 billion per year under more pes-
higher inundation depths due to climate change simistic climate scenarios—with economic losses
are estimated at $2,671 million in investment costs rising in later years. Around 80 percent of total
and $54 million in annual recurrent costs (Table losses fall directly on household consumption and
Table ES.3 Total adaption cost to address increased risk
of inland flooding from climate change by 2050 ($ millions)
Adaptation Option Investment Cost Annual Recurrent Cost
Transport – Road height enhancement 2,122 42
Transport – Road cross-drainage 5 -
Transport – Railway height enhancement 27 1
Embankment – height enhancement 96 2
Coastal Polders – cross drainage 421 8
Erosion Control Program 1
Total Costs 2,671 54

20. xviii E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E
hence have severe household welfare implications; partial cost estimates. In addition, longer term
the southern coastal regions and the northwest- adaptation has to also include development of
ern regions are expected to experience the largest alternatives, particularly to the boro crop in the
income declines. southern region.
Adaptation. While the public sector cost of adap- (4) Poverty and local-level
tation in the agriculture sector was not quantita- perspectives
tively estimated, the relative merits of a number Impacts. The risks from tropical cyclones, storm
of short-term adaptation measures—namely surges, floods, and other climatic hazards are geo-
the extension of currently available options into graphically concentrated in specific regions of the
new areas—are examined from the farmer’s country, which also have higher concentrations of
perspective. These measures primarily exam- the poor. The poor and the socially most vulner-
ine the merits of promoting existing crops from able are disproportionately affected, as they have
one area to another as the climate regime shifts. the lowest capacity to cope with these losses. The
They provide low-cost options for adapting to most vulnerable population includes those with
small changes in the climatic regime and may few assets, subsistence farmers, the rural landless,
be suitable for some areas in the near term. Part the urban poor, fishing communities, women,
of the medium-term adaptation strategy will be children, and the elderly. They do not have suf-
to control the damages from inland floods; the ficient resources to invest in preventive and pro-
study’s inland floods component included some tective measures such as disaster-resilient housing,

21. BA N G L A D E S H CO U N T RY ST U DY xix
making them more vulnerable to the full effects teams in Char areas. While they are similar to
of these hazards. Their access to public ser- adaptation options identified in the BCCSAP,
vices, which might buffer them from some of the they do provide a greater emphasis on softer
impacts, is also limited. In addition, their ability approaches (governance), include more gen-
to better prepare themselves in the longer term eral options (education), and are more directly
is also often limited by the destruction of their targeted to the community level (use of mobile
asset base. These effects are further compounded medical teams).
if vulnerable households suffer from multiple
extreme-event shocks one after the other, without Some caution is advisable in reviewing
sufficient time for recovery in between the shocks. these study results.
To the extent that it increases the frequency of
these events, climate change will only exacerbate The mathematical tools and models used in this
these impacts. study impose intellectual discipline; allow for
the estimation of impacts, costs, and benefits of
Adaptation. The adaptive capacity of households is adaptation actions; and facilitate prioritization
generally low, with poor urban dwellers the most of actions. These strengths can also be limiting
disadvantaged due to the limited opportunities if the most important questions depend on insti-
for livelihood diversification and low social capi- tutional, political, or cultural factors that are
tal. The most common forms of private adap- not amenable to such tools; for example, how
tation activities among surveyed households are to locate residents and economic activity away
temporary migration of adult men for day labor, from high-risk or increasingly unproductive
construction of platforms to protect livestock, areas, how to improve the allocation of water
and storage of food and drinking water prior to and land, or how to improve the quality of edu-
extreme events. The preferred public adaptation cation. Within the limitations imposed by the
activities from a local perspective—as identified modeling frameworks, important limitations of
by participants in local and national participa- this study derive from three sources of uncer-
tory scenario development workshops—include tainty: climate, economic growth, and technol-
(a) environmental management (mangrove pres- ogy. The climate scenarios used in the analysis
ervation, afforestation, coastal greenbelts, waste are predicated on future global economic growth
management); (b) water resource management and global efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases
(drainage, rainwater harvesting, drinking water (GHGs). Whereas predicted changes in climate
provision, and flood control); (c) infrastructure through 2050 largely depend on current and
(roads, cyclone shelters); (d) livelihood diversi- past emissions, future global mitigation efforts
fication and social protection for fishers during will increasingly determine the extent of warm-
the cyclone season; (e) education; (e) agricul- ing toward the latter half of this century. While
ture, including development of salt-tolerant and it is unlikely that technological breakthroughs
high-yield varieties and crop insurance; (f) fisher- can greatly reduce the costs of adaptation, dra-
ies, including storm-resistant boats and conflict matic reductions in the cost of mitigation are
resolution between shrimp and rice farmers; (g) possible over the next few decades. A higher
governance, especially access to social services return on investment in mitigation would in turn
for urban poor; (h) gender-responsive disas- reduce the amount of adaptation that would be
ter management, including separate rooms for required in the longer term. Nevertheless, it is
women in cyclone shelters, mini-shelters closer essential to invest in adaptation to at least meet
to villages, and the use of female voices in early the unavoidable warming.
warning announcements; and (i) mobile medical

22. xx E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E
Lessons and is expected to currently overtop 43 existing pol-
ders. The expected damages from a single severe
Recommendations cyclone currently is of the same order of magni-
tude as the total cost of strengthening all 43 pol-
Despite significant investments over the past 50 ders that would currently be overtopped. Future
years, climate-related disasters continue to have damages are expected to be higher for two rea-
significant damages. Without additional actions, sons: (a) higher risks as sea level rise and storms
these damages will certainly persist into the fore- become more intense due to climate change; and
seeable future. While there is great uncertainty (b)an increase in the value of assets that would
about the magnitude and the timing of the added be located in at-risk areas as incomes rise. Steps
risk from climate change, the risks and hence the taken to strengthen these 43 polders would not
potential damages are expected to increase. In a only protect against future risks, but also pro-
fiscally constrained environment with competing vide immediate benefits by preventing damages
priorities, climate adaptation actions have to be from current risks, and hence are a near-term
prioritized and sequenced, particularly given the priority.1
large costs required to prevent and protect against
these risks. The BCCSAP provides a starting point During cyclonic events, existing multipurpose
for doing so. This study examines the key drivers— shelters have also effectively protected the coastal
the degree of certainty, the timing of the benefits, population. The ongoing development benefits
and the cost of action—to enable further substan- of these shelters—as clinics, schools, or com-
tiation and refinement of the sequencing envi- munity centers—easily offset (fully or partially)
sioned in the BCCSAP. A good near-term strategy the construction cost of these facilities. Numer-
would be to protect populations and assets against ous programs are already under way to construct
current climate risks while investing to reduce the additional multipurpose shelters. A near-term
uncertainties about the magnitude and timing of priority is to assess the adequacy of the current
future risks. The future risks can then be addressed construction programs to provide sufficient shel-
in the medium to long term as the risks and the ter capacity to accommodate the current popula-
potential damages become more certain. tion living in areas currently at risk of cyclones
and storm surges, and to develop a plan for con-
Near term structing additional shelters as necessary.
(1) Addressing current climate-related Detailed analyses were not carried out to exam-
risks: a current priority ine the costs of addressing current risks for other
Rehabilitating polders currently at risk of being climate hazards such as inland monsoon flood-
overtopped during a typical severe cyclone not ing or droughts. Nevertheless, the large damages
only protects against the increased future risks associated with current climate variability makes
from climate change but also provides immediate it prudent to start by addressing the known cur-
benefits by reducing the damages from current rent risks in the near term before beginning to
storms. This study assessed the risk that polders address the less certain future risks. Shoring up
might be overtopped during cyclone-induced river embankments, elevating roads, or adding
storm surges currently and with the added risk culverts to accommodate drainage requirements
of climate change. The polder-specific costs
to prevent overtopping under these two condi- 1 If needed, these polders can be further prioritized through
tions were determined from detailed engineering further analyses that compare the assets and activities that would
be protected by each polder with the costs of strengthening that
analysis of each polder. A typical severe storm polder.

23. BA N G L A D E S H CO U N T RY ST U DY xxi
for severe monsoon floods that exist today would
not only provide immediate benefits, but also pro-
tect against increased future flood risks that are
expected with climate change.
Similarly, given the large impacts of current cli-
mate variability on the agriculture sector, a pru-
dent near-term strategy would be to promote
activities and policies that help households and
the government build resilience to existing climate
shocks affecting crop yields, particularly because
of the lead time needed to strengthen research
systems and to transfer and adapt findings from
the lab to the field. This effort better prepares the
country and households for whichever future cli-
mate materializes.
(2) Research and Knowledge Building: key
to improved targeting of future actions
Given the high cost of infrastructure investments,
and the expected gradual increase in climate risk
over decades, it is prudent to adapt infrastructure
incrementally in response to the added risk of cli-
mate change. This is especially true because of
the large uncertainties regarding the magnitude
and timing of the added risk from climate change.
In this regard, research and knowledge focused
on improving the spatial and temporal precision
of current climate-related risk forecasts and asso-
ciated early warning systems would enable bet- institutions that (a) gradually integrate new knowl-
ter targeting of future adaptation actions. These edge about climate risks into new infrastructure
actions not only provide immediate benefits, investments; (b) reduce perverse incentives that
but also improve the capacity to address climate are often associated with these investments; (c)
risks in the future. Supplemental research activi- develop new, more resilient varieties of crops; (d)
ties focused on reducing the large uncertainties improve governance and local stakeholder partici-
about future climate risks can also guide the pation to increase effectiveness of the hard invest-
extent of adaptation that will be needed and its ments; and (e) facilitate regional cooperation for
prioritization. the equitable sharing of commonly shared water
resources.
Medium to Long Term
(3) Sound development policies:
A good medium- to long-term strategy has to the foundation for an adaptation agenda
begin with effective development. Other elements Sound development policies provide the founda-
of a longer term strategy include investments in tion for adaptation action in the medium to long
programs and the creation or strengthening of term. Adaptation takes place in the context of

24. xxii E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E
development, which defines both the opportuni- costs. As research makes the risk of flooding in a
ties to adapt and generates the means for adapting location more apparent, the design standards for
to climate change. Expected structural changes roads in these areas need to be increased accord-
in the economy—away from climate-sensitive ingly. Similarly, polders need to be strengthened
sectors such as agriculture toward industry and beyond their current protective capacity as the
services—reduce exposure to climate risks, while added risk from storm surges becomes more cer-
urbanization concentrates risks but also provides tain. Applying the standards to infrastructure
new opportunities to manage them better. Invest- investments as they are replaced not only pro-
ments to expand the road system and increase vides a flexible way to integrate the most updated
the share of paved roads lowers transport costs, research outcomes but also provides a natural way
enhances the ability of farmers to respond to mar- to modulate adaptation efforts, scaling up adapta-
ket changes and expand markets, while lessening tion efforts if the risks are increasing or limiting
the impacts of floods. Poverty exacerbates vulner- efforts if the risks are stable or declining.
ability to weather variability as well as climate
change, so reducing poverty is central to both (5) Reducing perverse incentives:
development and adaptation. Rising incomes a necessity to increase effectiveness of
enable households to autonomously adapt and infrastructure investments
better cope with climate-related disasters—for As a general rule, investments—such as flood
instance, by increasing the affordability of cli- embankments or polders—designed to protect
mate-resilient housing, which can dramatically vulnerable assets should be subjected to careful
reduce the number of shelters that are necessary consideration. Strengthening an embankment is
to protect coastal residents. The effectiveness of followed, almost by definition, by an accumulation
adaptation programs can be also be improved of physical capital in the shadow of the embank-
through the targeting of adaptation actions that ment because it is considered “safe.” However, as
directly assist the poor, such as early warning and the tragedy of New Orleans dramatically illus-
evacuation services, basic education (particularly trated, a sufficiently extreme event will breach a
for women), and subsidized insurance programs. polder. The combination of the increasing sever-
ity of extreme events, the high costs of provid-
(4) Adjustment of design standards ing physical protection, and the accumulation of
for infrastructure: essential for future capital behind such barriers can mean that the
resilience expected value of losses, including human suffer-
Infrastructure investments are long-lived and ing, may not be reduced—either at all, or by as
expensive and yield large benefits when designed much as expected by investments in protection.
appropriately. It is essential to institutionalize
the development of appropriate standards com- The long-term challenge is to move people and
mensurate with the likely climate risks over the economic activity into less climate-sensitive areas
expected lives of the assets and to update them and to seek a strategic balance between protect-
over time based on new research results that ing existing populations and encouraging the
become available. For example, the prospect of mobility of future populations. In 2050, the num-
more intense precipitation has implications for ber of people living in cities will triple, while the
unpaved roads, especially in rural areas, which rural population will fall by 30 percent. Current
are vulnerable to being washed away by floods policies will determine where this urban popula-
and heavy rainfall. Single-lane sealed roads have tion settles and how prepared it is to adapt to a
a higher capital cost, but they provide a more reli- changed climate. Many households have moved
able all-weather network with lower maintenance further inland, partly due to higher perceived risk,

25. BA N G L A D E S H CO U N T RY ST U DY xxiii
but strengthened embankments may change these (7) Improved governance and stakeholder
perceptions, leading to increased exposure. Good participation: a complement to hard
policy needs to encourage future populations to investments
move away from naturally high risk areas, avoid- The effectiveness of hard investments depends on
ing perverse incentives to remain in high-risk both the ability of targeted populations to access
areas and adopting positive incentives to promote them and on their uptake. Improved governance
settlements and urban growth in low-risk areas. and local stakeholder participation are often
Strengthened education in rural areas is critical key determinants of access and uptake. Reach-
for rural migrants to be prepared for productive ing women requires gender-sensitive designs of
lives in new urban areas. interventions such as the provision of separate
facilities for women in cyclone shelters. Pro-poor
Similar concerns apply to efforts to maintain the adaptation investments include social protec-
welfare of populations in areas where climate tion, livelihoods diversification, and investments
change alters the comparative advantage of agri- in human and social capital (including training,
culture and other resource-intensive activities. education, and community-based disaster risk
Short-term measures to prevent suffering must management) in order to strengthen local resil-
be complemented by long-term measures such as ience to climate change.
education, job training, and migration designed
to reduce reliance on resources and assets whose (8) Strengthened regional cooperation: an
value may be eroded by climate change. Adapta- essential option in the long term
tion should not attempt to resist the impact of cli- Climate change may greatly increase the need for
mate change, but rather it should offer a path by regional cooperation. Cooperation on the sharing
which accommodation to its effects is less disrup- of water resources with neighboring countries in
tive and does not fall disproportionately on the the GBM basin is not a new issue for Bangladesh,
poor and the vulnerable. but it is one whose importance may be greatly
increased by climate change. Recognizing its
(6) Development of climate-resilient cul- importance, Bangladesh has been meeting since
tivars and cropping: an option for long- 2006 with six other neighboring countries—
term food security including India, Nepal, and China—as part of
Additional research will also be necessary for the Abu Dhabi Dialogue. These dialogues have
the development of climate-resilient cultivars resulted in a consensus vision of a “cooperative
and cropping patterns that are more suited to and knowledge-based partnership of states fairly
the future climatic conditions, particularly in the managing and developing the Himalayan river
southern coastal regions, which are expected to systems,” as well as agreements on specific actions
be affected the most by climate change. Bangla- to advance the water cooperation agenda. As the
desh already has an active network of agricul- stakes rise, effective steps taken now to promote
tural research institutes that develop and test new and strengthen the cooperative programs such
crop varieties to increase national production as the Abu Dhabi Dialogue can not only provide
and resilience against climate risks. The magni- immediate benefits to all parties, but can also pre-
tude of the additional effort and the direction it vent the need for expensive and possibly disrup-
takes will depend on the specific future climate tive solutions in the future.
that materializes.

26. xxiv O NE
E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E

27. BA N G L A D E S H CO U N T RY ST U DY 1
Introduction
Motivation and Context for initial findings were that developing countries will
the EACC Study need $70 to $100 billion per year between 2010
and 2050 to adapt to a world that is approximately
20C warmer in 2050 (World Bank 2010).
The Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change
(EACC) study has two specific objectives. The first Each country case study under the country
is to develop a “global” estimate of adaptation costs track consists of a series of studies that exam-
to inform the international community’s efforts to ine the impacts of climate change and the costs
help those developing countries most vulnerable to of adapting to them for select major economic
climate change to meet adaptation costs. The sec- sectors. Most case studies also included vulner-
ond objective is to help decision makers in devel- ability assessments and a participatory scenario
oping countries to better understand and assess the workshop to highlight the differential impact of
risks posed by climate change and to better design climate change on vulnerable groups and to iden-
strategies to adapt to climate change. The study tify the types of adaptation strategies that can
comprises a global track to meet the first study benefit those that are most vulnerable. Finally, the
objective and a country case study track to meet the sectoral analyses were integrated into analytical
second objective. The country track comprises seven tools—such as a computable general equilibrium
country case studies: Bangladesh, Bolivia, Ethiopia, model—to identify cross-sectoral constraints and
Ghana, Mozambique, Samoa, and Vietnam. effects such as relative price changes. The findings
from each of the seven countries—as well as a
Using data sets with global coverage at the country final synthesis report covering both the global and
level, the global track estimated adaptation costs the country tracks—will be available in 2010.
for all developing countries by major economic
sectors, including agriculture, forestry, fisheries,
infrastructure, water resources, coastal zones, and Context for the Bangladesh
health. Adaptation for ecosystem services is also Case Study
discussed qualitatively. The study also considered
the cost implications of changes in the frequency of
extreme weather events, including the implications Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable coun-
for social protection programs. The global track’s tries in the world to climate risks. Two-thirds of

28. 2 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E
the nation is less than 5 meters above sea level related hazards. Agricultural production has
and is susceptible to river and rainwater flood- actually risen over the past few decades as rural
ing, particularly during the monsoon. Due to its households have adapted their farming systems to
location at the tail end of the delta formed by the the “normal floods” that typically inundate about
Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna (GBM) riv- a quarter of the country by switching from low-
ers, the timing, location, and extent of flooding yielding deepwater rice to high-yielding rice crops.
depends on the precipitation in the entire GBM Higher incomes have also enabled an increas-
basin, not just on the 7 percent of the basin that ing proportion of households to live in homes
lies within the country. Nearly 80 percent of the that are more resilient to cyclones, storm surges,
country’s annual precipitation occurs during the and floods. In addition, the government of Ban-
summer monsoon season, when these rivers have gladesh has invested $10 billion since the sixties
a combined peak flow of 180,000 m3/sec, the on disaster reduction measures—both structural
second highest in the world. Once every three to (polders, cyclone shelters, cyclone-resistant hous-
five years, up to two-thirds of Bangladesh is inun- ing) and non-structural (early warning and aware-
dated by floods that cause substantial damage to ness raising systems) measures—and enhanced its
infrastructure, housing, agriculture, and liveli- disaster preparedness systems. These investments
hoods. The performance of the agriculture sector have significantly reduced damages and losses
is in turn heavily dependent on the characteristics from extreme climatic events over time, especially
of the annual floods. Low-lying coastal areas are in terms of deaths and injuries.
also at risk from tidal floods and severe cyclones.
Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable coun- Large damages and losses, reduced economic
tries to climate risks, and is the most vulnerable growth and slowed progress in reducing poverty
to tropical cyclones. Between 1877 and 1995, following recent climate-related disasters, how-
Bangladesh was hit by 154 cyclones—including ever, indicate that these measures are insufficient
43 severe cyclonic storms and 68 tropical depres- to protect the exposed population and assets
sions— or one severe cyclone every three years, against existing risks. The 1998 monsoon flood
either before or after the monsoon, creating inundated over two- thirds of Bangladesh and
storm surges that are sometimes in excess of 10 resulted in damages and losses of over $2 billion,
meters. The largest damages from a cyclone result or 4.8 percent of GDP. The losses were evenly
from the induced-storm surges, and Bangladesh is split among agriculture, infrastructure, and indus-
on the receiving end of about 40 percent of the try/commerce. Cyclone Sidr resulted in damages
impact of total storm surges in the world. Crops and losses of $1.7 billion, or 2.6 percent of GDP
and the livelihoods of the rural poor in low-lying in 2007. About half the losses were in the housing
coastal areas are also devastated by saline water sector, followed by agriculture and infrastructure.
intrusion into aquifers and groundwater and land When averaged over the past decade, the direct
submergence. In addition, seasonal droughts annual costs from natural disasters to the national
occasionally hit the northwestern region. economy—in terms of damages to infrastructure
and livelihoods and losses from forgone produc-
Addressing the impacts of climate and non-cli- tion—have been estimated at 0.5 percent to 1
mate natural disasters has been an integral part percent of GDP. These statistics do not include
of the nation’s development plans. Investments the significant loss of life that has also occurred
made over the past 50 years have made Bangla- during these events.
desh more resilient to climate-related hazards, but
additional steps are necessary to reduce potential These damages and losses are geographically
damages from both existing and future climate- concentrated in areas that also have higher

29. BA N G L A D E S H CO U N T RY ST U DY 3
concentrations of the poor, affecting them dis- and Action Plan in 2009 to guide its actions in all
proportionately (Figure 1.1). They live in thatch areas related to climate change. Until the past few
or tin houses that are more susceptible to direct years, climatic risks have been poorly reflected in
damages from cyclones, storm surges, and floods. major national policies and programs in Bangla-
Additionally, most rural households depend on desh. The country launched the National Adap-
weather-sensitive sectors—agriculture, fisheries, tation Program of Action (NAPA) in 2005, which
and other natural resources—for their livelihood. identified 15 priority activities that were subse-
Destruction of their assets and livelihoods leaves quently updated to 45 programs in 2009. The first
the poor with a limited capacity to recover. The sectoral policy to explicitly include climate change
importance of adapting to these climate risks to impacts and actions—the Coastal Zone Policy—
maintain economic growth and reduce poverty is was adopted in 2005. Climate change has been
thus very clear. a key concern in the redrafting of the National
Water Management Plan (NWMP). Recognizing
In a fiscally constrained environment, with com- that a wide range of policies have the potential to
peting priorities, efforts to address climate related address climate-related hazards and vulnerability,
risks can easily be set-aside. Recognizing these the government developed and adopted through
complexities, the government of Bangladesh a consultative process the Bangladesh Climate
adopted the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy Change Strategy and Action Plan 2009 to guide
Figure 1.1 Poverty and climate hazards
Source: BBS, World Bank, and WFP 2009

30. 4 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E
economy-wide efforts to adapt to climate change median discharges in the three rivers during the
and to mitigate greenhouse gases. It identifies summer months are expected to increase between
three climate hazards—tropical cyclones/storm 6 and 18 percent by the 2050s. These climatic
surges, inland flooding, and droughts. The strat- changes are expected to exacerbate existing cli-
egy contains 44 programs formulated around six mate hazards — such as cyclones/storm surges,
themes—food security/social protection/health, different floods, droughts, salinity, waterlogging,
comprehensive disaster management, infrastruc- and drainage congestion — increasing their
ture, research/knowledge management, miti- severity and frequency.
gation/low carbon development, and capacity
building/institutional strengthening (see Table
ES.1). Thirty-four programs listed under five Scope of This Report
themes are wholly or partially focused on adap-
tation. The strategy includes an implementation This report synthesizes the series of studies that
timeframe for each program and is estimated to constitute the EACC Bangladesh case study.
require $500 million in the first two years and The study is intended to assist the government
about $5 billion in the first five years for full of Bangladesh in its efforts to understand how
implementation. The government allocated $100 climate change may alter the physical and eco-
million from its own resources in FY 09-10 and nomic impacts of existing climate-related haz-
has budgeted $100 million in FY10–11 toward ards, as well as the effectiveness and costs of
actions contained in the strategy. It is actively available adaptation options. The study takes
seeking additional resources to implement the full as its starting point the BCCSAP. It builds upon
strategy. and strengthens the analytical models and quan-
titative assessment tools already in use in Bangla-
desh in support of the research and knowledge
Climate Change and management theme of BCCSAP. This study uses
Bangladesh these tools to (a) examine the potential physical
impacts of climate change; (b) assess the associ-
ated damages and losses in key economic sec-
A warmer and wetter future climate that goes tors, vulnerable populations, and in the overall
beyond historical variations will exacerbate exist- economy; (c) estimate spatially disaggregated
ing climatic risks and increase vulnerability by costs of adaptation options that can reduce these
increasing the extent and depth of inundation impacts; and (d) sequence the adaptation actions
from flooding and storm surges and by reducing over time. The study is not a substitute for the
arable land due to sea level rise and salinity intru- BCCSAP, instead it is designed to provide more
sion. The median predictions from the general precise cost estimates actions in the BCCSAP
circulation models (GCMs) are for Bangladesh and approaches to sequencing these actions in a
to be 1.5oC warmer and 4 percent wetter by the fiscally constrained environment.
2050s. Severe cyclones originating in the Bay of
Bengal are also expected to occur more frequently The scope of the study is more limited, encom-
as a result of warmer ocean surface temperatures. passing about 21 of the adaptation actions identi-
Cyclone-induced storm surges are further exac- fied in BCCSAP (as highlighted in Table ES.1).
erbated by a potential rise in sea level of over 27 Some important and likely expensive adaptation
cm by 2050. Most GCMs predict precipitation activities—such as urban drainage, river training
increases of up to 20 percent during July, August, works, dredging and desiltation, and protection of
and September for the GBM basin. As a result, ecosystem services—are not included in the study,

31. BA N G L A D E S H CO U N T RY ST U DY 5
so the reported costs represent a lower bound of provide a point of reference for comparing the
the total adaptation costs in Bangladesh. cost of adapting to this risk. The third compo-
nent of the study focuses on both the direct and
The study was developed in four discrete and economy-wide impacts of climate on agricul-
somewhat independent components with varying ture and food security from a full range of
degrees of analytical depth and quantification. climate risks, including droughts (the third haz-
When feasible, common assumptions and similar ard identified in the BCCSAP), floods, sea level
methodologies were used to increase compara- rise, warmer temperatures, and increased CO2
bility and cohesion among the components. The concentrations. While a full set of adaptation
first two components of the study focus on two of options and their public sector costs to address
the hazards identified in the BCCSAP—tropi- these impacts are not analyzed, the relative
cal cyclones/storm surges and inland desirability of transferring existing coping strat-
flooding. They assess the added risk of these egies to newly affected areas is examined. The
hazards due to climate change in the context final component provides local perspectives
of the existing risks, identify specific assets and on adaptation as seen by the poor and most
activities that are at risk, and estimate the cost vulnerable population. It examines the determi-
of adaptation actions to protect against these nants of the adaptive capacity of the vulnerable
risks. Sequencing of these actions is facilitated by populations and solicits from local, regional and
detailed spatially disaggregated identification of national stakeholders—through the use of par-
adaptation options and associated cost estimates. ticipatory scenarios—the types of public support
In addition, the future economic damages from a that would best enable the vulnerable population
single super cyclonic event are also estimated to to cope with potential climate change impacts.

32. 6 T WO
E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E

33. BA N G L A D E S H CO U N T RY ST U DY 7
Existing Climate Variability
and Climate Change
Most of Bangladesh consists of extremely low land. mm of rain. The hydrometeorological character-
Dhaka, the capital city with a population of over 12 istics of the three river basins make the country
million, is about 225 km from the coast but within vulnerable to a range of climate risks, including
8 meters above mean sea level (MSL). Land eleva- severe flooding and periodic droughts.
tion increases toward the northwest and reaches an
elevation of about 90 meters above MSL. The high- This chapter characterizes the risks that Bangla-
est areas are the hill tracts in the eastern and Chit- desh is currently facing due to variability in the
tagong regions. The lowest parts of the country are current climate and how these are expected to
in the coastal areas, which are vulnerable to tidal and change based on projections of the future climate
cyclone-induced storm surges and sea level rise. through 2050. It is largely based on a comple-
mentary World Bank study focused on climate
Bangladesh is situated at the confluence of three change and food security that has recently been
great rivers—the Ganges, the Brahmaputra, and completed (Yu et al. 2010).
the Meghna. Over 90 percent of the Ganges-
Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin lies outside
the boundaries of the country. The country is Existing Climate Variability
intersected by more than 200 rivers, of which
54 rivers enter Bangladesh from India. Like the Historical precipitation levels
rest of the GBM basin, Bangladesh has a humid Figure 2.1 shows trends in the annual and sea-
subtropical climate. The year can be divided into sonal precipitation levels averaged across 32
four seasons: the relatively dry and cool winter rainfall stations (both BMD and BWDB stations)
from December to February, the hot and humid in Bangladesh between 1960 and 2001. The
summer from March through May, the southwest national mean annual rainfall during this period
summer monsoon from June through Septem- was 2,447 mm, with a maximum of 4,050 mm (in
ber, and the retreating monsoon from October Sylhet) and minimum of 1450 mm (in Rajshahi).
to November. The southwest summer monsoon The maximum rainfall occurs during the June,
is the dominating hydrologic driver in the GBM July, and August monsoon months (JJA). Neither
basin. More than 80 percent of annual precipita- the annual nor seasonal precipitation time series
tion occurs during this period. Some areas of the show any statistically significant changes over this
South Asia subcontinent can receive up to 10,000 time period.

34. 8 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E
Figure 2.1 Annual and seasonal (mm) precipitation averaged
across meteorological stations by year
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
DJF MAM JJA SON ANN
Note: DJF = December, January, February; MAM = March, April, May; JJA = June, July, August;
SON = September, October, November.
Source: Yu, W.H., et al. (2010)
TABLE 2.1 PEAK DISCHARGE AND TIMING DURING EXTREME FLOOD YEARS
Brahmaputra Ganges Meghna Return Return
Extreme period period
Years Date m3/s Date m3/s Date m3/s (area) (vol)
1974 7-Aug 91,100 3-Sep 50,700 - 21,100 7 7
1980 20-Aug 61,200 22-Aug 57,800 7-Aug 12,400 2 2
1984 20-Sep 76,800 17-Sep 56,500 17-Sep 15,400 2 4
1987 16-Aug 73,000 20-Sep 75,800 4-Aug 15,600 9 10
1988 31-Aug 98,300 4-Sep 71,800 18-Sep 21,000 79 34
1998 9-Sep 103,100 11-Sep 74,280 - 18,600 100 52
2004 12-Jul 83,900 19-Jul 77,430 - 16,300 10 20
Average 67,490 51,130 13,370
Min 40,900 31,500 7,940
Source: BWDB