Why Hunger in Asia? Agricultural and Rural Development for Reducing Food Insecurity

Why Hunger in Asia?
Agricultural and Rural Development
for Reducing Food Insecurity

Joachim von Braun
International Food Policy Research Institute

Agriculture and Rural Development Daybreak Seminar Series
USAID, Washington DC
June 3, 2009

IFPRI’s Offices and programs in Asia*

IFPRI Rome
IFPRI Headquarters, * IFPRI Beijing

Washington, D.C.
* **
IFPRI Dakar

IFPRI Accra
* **
IFPRI New Delhi

IFPRI Abuja
*
IFPRI Addis Ababa

IFPRI Kampala

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009

IFPRI ranking: top 1% of development
economics institutions and top 1 - 3% in Asia

Field Rank # Institutions
Ag. Economics 2 897
Africa 3 755
China 9 475
Development Economics 13 1585
Central & Western Asia 24 813
South East Asia 25 1062

RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) May 22, 2009

Overview

1. Present realities: hunger and poverty

2. Emerging trends and challenges

3. Recounting the role of agriculture and
rural development: Agenda for action


Global poverty scenario:
Asia now home to 67% of the poor
1981 2005
Population living below Population living below
$1.25 a day = 1904 mil $1.25 a day = 1400 mil

SSA Others Others
3% SSA 6% China
RSA 11%
27% 15%
7% China REA&P
44% 9%

India RSA
22% REA&P India
10%
13% 33%

Rest of East Asia and Pacific
Rest of South Asia

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009 Source: Chen and Ravallion 2008.

912 million people remain poor in South
and East Asia
Poverty at $1/day, 2005 PPP
1.2 East Asia and Pacific
South Asia
1.0
Sub-Saharan Africa

0.8
Billions

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0
1981 1987 1993 1999 2005

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009 Source: Chen and Ravallion 2008.

Groups excluded from poverty reduction
remain among the poorest in Asia
• Laos: prevalence of poverty is more than twice as
high among the minority Mon-Khmer than the
majority Lao

• Vietnam: incidence of poverty is more than 6 times
higher among ethnic minorities than among the
Kinh and Chinese

• India: scheduled castes and tribes are
overrepresented among the poor (more true for
scheduled tribes than for scheduled castes)

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009 Source: Ahmed et al. 2008.

Asia home to largest number of
undernourished people
Countries resized relative to undernourished population
in 2000

Source: Worldmapper 2009.

Hunger “alarming” in parts of Asia:
2008 Global Hunger Index (GHI)

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009 Source: von Grebmer et al., IFPRI 2008.

And “extremely alarming” in some regions:
2008 India State Hunger Index (ISHI)
- 12 of 17 states:
“alarming”

- Madhya Pradesh:
“extremely alarming”

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009 Source: Menon et al. 2008.

Problem zone “under–two” worst in Asia
Weight for age by region
0.5
0.25
0
-0.25
Z-score (NCHS)

-0.5
-0.75
-1
-1.25
-1.5
-1.75
-2
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Age (months)

Africa Latin America and Caribbean Asia
Source: Shrimpton et al. 2001.

Food price shocks: Some Asian countries
are among the most vulnerable
Rank Country Overall Micro- Macro- Population
vulnerability vulnerability vulnerability (mil.)
index index index
1 Eritrea 1.65 1.48 2.05 4.7
2 Ethiopia 1.54 1.64 1.39 77.2
3 Sierra Leone 1.52 1.77 1.07 5.7
4 Yemen 1.51 1.47 1.63 21.7
5 Haiti 1.44 1.13 2.11 9.4
6 Liberia 1.37 1.56 1.02 3.6
7 Bangladesh 1.24 1.77 0.23 156.0
8 Myanmar 1.16 0.53 2.45 48.4
9 Djibouti 1.16 0.88 1.75 0.8
10 Malawi 1.13 1.40 0.63 13.6
11 Zambia 1.11 1.47 0.43 11.7
12 Madagascar 1.10 1.26 0.81 19.2
13 Cambodia 1.06 1.57 0.05 14.2
14 Angola 1.03 0.97 1.17 16.6
15 Sri Lanka 0.97 0.73 1.48 19.9
16 Zimbabwe 0.96 0.96 0.98 13.2
17 Tajikistan 0.93 1.03 0.76 6.6
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009 Source: Headey and Fan 2008.

Slower growth and global financial crisis
GDP, annual % change
constant prices
• Less capital for
14
agriculture
12
10
• Higher debt burden for
8 farmers
6
4 • Reduced employment
Developing Asia
2 China and wages of
India
0 unskilled workers
2011
2004

2013
2000
2001
2002
2003

2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

2012

2014

• Reduced remittances
Source: IMF 2009.


Asian countries facing increasing overall
risks for the future
Overall vulnerability to the global downturn
Country
Lao PDR H
Tajikistan H
Vietnam H
Afghanistan M
Bangladesh M
Cambodia M
India M
Pakistan M
Sri Lanka M
Myanmar L
Nepal L
China n.a
Source: IMF 2009.

Fragmenting farms (e.g. India)
Less than 2 hectares 2-4 hectares 4 and above hectares

Area of Holdings-India

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%
1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 1995-96 2000-01

Avg. Size 2.3 1.82 1.55 1.41 1.37
Number of holdings-India
100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%
1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 1995-96 2000-01

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009 Source: Agricultural Census Division, India.

Agriculture growth not matching price
increases
Agriculture value added
(annual % growth)
10
•Food prices remain at
East Asia & Pacific historically high levels
South Asia
8 in several countries
6
•Increases in rice
4 production since 2007
only marginal
2
•Food supply and
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 market access
-2 difficulties persist
-4

-6
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009 Source: WDI 2008 and FAO 2009.

Agricultural productivity growth in
developing countries
Annual total factor productivity growth, 1992-2003
%
East Asia 2.7
South Asia 1.0
East Africa 0.4
West Africa 1.6
Southern Africa 1.3
Latin America 2.7
North Africa & West Asia 1.4
All regions 2.1
Source: von Braun et al. 2008.

Agricultural growth has large poverty
reduction impact
Poverty reduction elasticities of agricultural growth
Low Income Countries
SSA -1.83
South Asia -1.73
East Asia and Pacific -1.44
Eastern and Central Europe -1.57
Latin America -1.11
Middle East and North Africa -0.92
All Low Income Countries -1.6
Source: Christaensen et al (2005)


Largest global CO2 emitters

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009 Source: World Bank and IEA 2007; USEPA 2005; Houghton 2006.

Climate induced change in production in 2050:
Irrigated rice -16.2%


Cereal demand:
1995 and 2025 Business as usual (BAU)
1995 2025

1500
1228
million metric ton

1200
900 794
581
600 375
275
300 171 114 176 102
55
0
India China Southeast South Asia Asia
Asia (excluding
India)

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009 Source: Rosegrant et al. 2002.

Meat demand:
1995 and 2025 BAU
1995 2025
180 154
million metric ton

150
120 102
90 72
60 47
10 19
30 4 8 3 7
0
India China Southeast South Asia Asia
Asia (excluding
India)

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009 Source: Rosegrant et al. 2002.

Strategic agenda

1. Promote pro-poor agriculture growth with
technology and institutional innovations
2. Facilitate open trade and reduce market
volatility
3. Expand social protection and child
nutrition action


Agriculture R&D, roads, education
among highest return public investments
China India Thailand Vietnam Uganda

Ranking of Returns in Agricultural Production

Agricultural R&D 1 1 1 1 1
Irrigation 5 4 5 4
Education 2 3 3 3 3
Roads 3 2 4 2 2
Telecommunications 4
Electricity 6 8 2
Health 7 4
Soil and Water Conservation 6
Anti-Poverty Programs 5

Ranking of Returns in Poverty Reduction

Agricultural R&D 2 2 2 3 1
Irrigation 6 7 5 4
Education 1 3 4 1 3
Roads 3 1 3 2 2
Telecommunications 5
Electricity 4 8 1
Health 6 4
Soil and Water Conservation 5
Anti-Poverty Programs 7 4

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009 Shenggen Fan et. al. IFPRI 2008

Central for long-term agric. growth:
Double public agric. R&D to impact poverty

R&D allocation  in # of + Agr. output
(mil. 2005 $) poor (mil.) growth (% pts.)
2008* 2013 2008-2020 2008-2020
SSA 608 2,913 -143.8 2.8
S Asia 908 3,111 -124.6 2.4
Devel.ing
world 4,975 9,951 -282.1 1.1

CGIAR investment to rise from US$0.5 to US$1.0 billion
as part of this expansion

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009 Source: von Braun, Shenggen Fan, et al. 2008.

With supporting public investments,
farmers can respond to higher prices
But government investments in seeds, fertilizer,
irrigation, and rural infrastructure are critical

In response to the food crisis:
- China: agric. spending +30% in 2008
- India: agric. spending +20% in 2008
Plus 2009 stimulus packages:
- China: 109 bil. US$ for agriculture
- India: also increased ++


Moving from staples to high-value
agriculture
• Rapid transformation in agri-system in Asia
resulting from diet diversification & supply
factors

• Opportunity for small holders if they can
connect to new markets, else a major
challenge to remain afloat

• HVP require a shift in policy approach from
farming to agri-system.……of value chains


Key climate change adaptation policies
and investments for Asia
• Crop breeding for biotic and abiotic stresses
agricultural productivity growth remains key to
future food security under climate change
• Enhanced water control (to adapt to sea-level
rise, glacier melting and extreme events)
• Knowledge, information and risk sharing
approaches to support flexible farmer
adaptation
• Market-based approaches to manage
environmental services combined with secure
property rights

In sum: Actions for agricultural productivity

• Access to finance
(e.g. rural banks and micro-finance)

• Expansion of risk management
(e.g. crop insurance)

• Access to inputs
(e.g. quality seeds, fertilizer, feed, veterinary drugs)

• Access to services, extension
• Investment in rural infrastructure
(rural roads, electrification, water and irrigation)

2. What to do about volatility?

1. Keep trade open at times of global and
regional food shortage is a must

2. Regulation of food commodity markets? (as
part of financial markets)
3. Establish grain reserves policy at global level
(emergency reserve, shared physical
reserves, and a virtual reserve > a new
institution at global level needed) with strong
Asian participation


3. Support pro-poor food and nutrition
interventions
Protective actions e.g.:
• Cash transfers
• Employment-based food security programs

Preventive actions e.g.:
• School feeding
• Early childhood nutrition programs

Focus on children, women, and poorest


Scaling up social protection

• All Asian countries have some form of social
protection through targeted safety net and
social security programs
• Interventions need to be scaled up and
expanded, which would require:
- additional investments
- strengthening of the knowledge base and
capacity
• Country-specific conditions should dictate
the choice and design of social protection
interventions


Implementation of strategic agenda in
partnerships
A focus on
• Science and technology for rural growth
• Trade and market institutions
• Government effectiveness
• Public – private cooperation
How?
> Adjusted to country typology – the
tremendous diversity of Asia
> Strategic partnerships with China and India
> Due attention to the agriculture and food links
to security

Among food insecure Asian countries
Tajikistan is the most food insecure (weather and
soil fertility are constraints to agric. production)
Cambodia ranks 2nd in food insecurity (increased
irrigation and soil management are key)
Bangladesh ranks 3rd (increased irrigation is top
priority)
Laos and Nepal also rank high (irrigation should be
the top in investment priorities)
Sri Lanka, Philippines have potential (governance
& stability should be priority)
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009 Source: Headey and Fan 2008.

Improve government effectiveness

Source: Kaufmann et al. 2008.

Consider strategic partnerships

Networks of research leaders, innovative business
leaders, and civil society:
for food security, rural change, agriculture and
policy-making

www.ifpri.org


Why Hunger in Asia? Agricultural and Rural Development for Reducing Food Insecurity

Empfohlen

Empfohlen

Weitere ähnliche Inhalte

Mehr von Joachim von Braun

Mehr von Joachim von Braun (20)

Why Hunger in Asia? Agricultural and Rural Development for Reducing Food Insecurity