SlideShare ist ein Scribd-Unternehmen logo
1 von 35
Downloaden Sie, um offline zu lesen
International perspectives on poverty and transition in rural areas
               Globalization,
        Rural Sector Transformation,
                and Poverty


               Joachim von Braun
   International Food Policy Research Institute


                                                           IAMO Forum 2007
                                                      Halle, June 27-29, 2007
Overview

        1. Issues and conceptual framework to
           assess globalization – poverty links

        2. Key drivers of globalization
                 - 1) Markets and trade
                 - 2) Investment & capital flows
                 - 3) Information & innovation
              and impact on poverty

        3. Policy and research implications

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
Context of change around the
                    world food and agriculture system

          1. Global economy’s fast growth
          2. Governance and decentralization
          3. Energy price and climate change
          4. Health risks and agriculture
          5. breakthroughs in science and
             technology
          6. Urban/rural change & migration

          Not all global change is “globalization”
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
Questions

     1. what are the effects of globalization of
        the agri-food system on the poor?

     2. Institutional challenges of (erstwhile)
        transforming economies & globalization:
        how did globalization impact on poverty
        in these economies?




Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
Patterns in TCs: Growth
                                                                              LOW
                                                                               &
                                                               RUSS           MID
                  ETH        UZB VIET      UKR     CHIN         FED   POL HUN  Y
                   Agriculture, value added (annual % growth)
     1990
      -94 1.4 -0.1 3.3                     -8.0     4.6        -7.2   -4.2 -7.5 2.2
     2000
      -04 3.5 6.0 3.8                       6.8     3.4        7.1    2.6 7.4     3.1
                                      GDP growth (annual %)
     1990
      -94 0.7 -3.5 7.3 -12.3 10.9 -8.8                                1.1   -3.2 2.8
     2000
      -04 5.2 4.8 7.2 8.4 9.2 6.9                                     3.1   4.4   4.9
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007         Source: WDI 2006
Towards urbanization of poverty?

                     Urban and rural share of the poor (%)
        1993                                                2002
                                           18.88                                                 24.67




                                                                   75.33


                 81.13                                                     urban share of the poor (%)

                                                                           rural share of the poor (%)


                                         Source: Ravallion et al., 2007
                                      Note: Poverty line is set at $1.08/day

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
Mixed Evidence: Poverty headcount ratio at
           $1 and $2 a day (PPP) as % of total population

                                                                                      Share of people living on less than $2 a day
                                                                                                  (% of population)
            Share of people living on less than $1 a day
                        (% of population)
                                                                             100
      70                                                                     90
                                                                             80
      60
                                                                             70
      50
                                                                             60
      40                                                                     50
      30                                                                     40
                                                                             30
      20
                                                                             20
      10
                                                                             10
       0                                                                      0
           1981   1984 1987       1990   1993   1996 1999       2002               1981   1984     1987     1990      1993   1996    1999      2002

            East Asia & Pacific                 Europe & Central Asia                     East Asia & Pacific                Europe & Central Asia
            Latin America & Caribbean           Middle East & North Africa                Latin America & Caribbean          Middle East & North Africa
            South Asia                          Sub-Saharan Africa                        South Asia                         Sub-Saharan Africa

                                            Source: Based on data from the 2006 WDI database
                                                          Note: 2002 data are preliminary
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
Regional Hunger Trends

    45
                                 40.3
    40
                                                                                                                                  GH I 1981
    35                                                                                                                            GH I 1992
                                        32
                                                                                                                                  GH I 1997
    30     27.9 27.3
                     27                      26.6                                                                                 GH I 2003
                          25.4                      25.1
    25                                                     22.5

    20
                                                                  15.1
    15                                                                               12.6
                                                                         11.9 10.9                           11.4
                                                                                                                    9.4
                                                                                            8.4 8.0                       7.9
    10                                                                                                7.5
                                                                                                                                6.6           6.0 5.6

     5

     0
          Sub-Saharan            So uth A sia              So utheast                N ear East &           Latin A merica                 Eastern
             A frica                                          A sia                  N o rth A frica         & C aribbean                 Euro pe &
                                                                                                                                      F o rmer So viet
                                                                                                                                            Unio n


Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007                                 Source: Wiesmann, 2006
What is “globalization
         of agriculture and food systems”?




                    Definition: Global integration—
                       across national borders—of
                         production, processing,
                         marketing, retailing, and
                              consumption of
                      agriculture and food items
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007       Source: von Braun and Diaz-Bonilla (2007)
Conceptual framework: drivers and examples
                of changes at different levels of analysis
                            MARKETS     INVESTMENT         INFORMATION      SOCIAL
                                             &                  &           POLICY
                                          CAPITAL           INNOVATION
                                           FLOWS
        Exogenous factors
         GLOBALIZATION




                            Increased                      Improved ICTs
                                                                              Aid;
            LEVEL I




                            access to
                                         Expansion                          human
                             outputs,                        Innovation &
                                           of FDI                           right to
                              inputs,                            IPR
                                                                              food
                               labor


                                        Competition
                                                              Technology
        DOMESTIC




                                          policy
         LEVEL II

         POLICY




                                                                policy      Pro-poor
                             Market
                                                                              social
                            opening      Political &
                                                         Public R&D          actions
                                        institutional
                                                        investments
                                          changes
                                                    RIGHTS
           HOUSEHOLDS
             LEVEL III




                                                    PRICES

                                               EMPLOYMENT
                            HOUSEHOLD                                  CONSUMPTION
                                               PRODUCTION
                            ENDOWMENTS

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007          Source: von Braun, 2007
1) Markets and trade




Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
1. Trade: Stagnation of developing countries’ export shares,
                   more global integration on the import side
                   Agriculture trade in percent of production

       Export/Production                          1960s     1970s         1980s   1990s   2000-02

       Latin America and the Caribbean             23.6       24.7        24.5    26.7     31.4
       Sub-Saharan Africa a                        28.5        23         17.2    15.3     13.2
       Asia Developing                              5.4       5.7          6.4     6.4      6.4

       All Three Regions                           12.1      11.8         11.3    11.0     11.6


       Import/Production                          1960s     1970s         1980s   1990s   2000–02

       Latin America and the Caribbean              6.7       8.6         11.2     14      15.7
       Sub-Saharan Africa a                         8.1       9.4         12.6    12.3     13.5
       Asia Developing                              7.1       7.7          9.2     8.9      8.8
       All Three Regions                           7.1        8.0         10.0    10.1     10.5

       a   Does not include South Africa.


                                      Data source: World Bank, WDI 2005

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
Regional trade trends
                    Agriculture trade in percent of total merchandise trade


       Agr. Exports/Total Merchandize                     1980            1990        2000       2003
       Transition countries                                7.6              5.9        5.3         5.5
       Latin America and Caribbean                        27.8             26.1       17.4        20.6
       Sub-Saharan Africa a                               19.8             20.0       15.2        16.9
       East and Southeast Asia                            13.3              7.7        3.7         3.8
       South Asia                                         33.8             18.6       10.8        10.6

       Agr. Imports/Total Merchandise                     1980             1990       2000       2003
       Transition countries                               18.4             14.1        9.3        8.4
       Latin America and Caribbean                        11.6             12.3        9.0        10.3
       Sub-Saharan Africa a                               15.4             16.3       17.1        17.9
       East and Southeast Asia                            14.2              8.0        4.8        4.7
       South Asia                                         13.8             10.3        9.3        9.3
                                      Data source: FAO, 2004; Note:   a   Does not include South Africa
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
But: global increased trade in processed
                      and high-value goods
                                                  World export value (billions of US$)


100
 90                         Coarse Grains
 80                         Fruits & vegetables
 70                         Meat
 60                         Milk
 50
 40
 30
 20
 10
  0
      1961

             1963

                    1965

                           1967

                                  1969

                                         1971

                                                  1973

                                                         1975

                                                                1977

                                                                       1979

                                                                              1981

                                                                                     1983

                                                                                            1985

                                                                                                   1987

                                                                                                          1989

                                                                                                                 1991

                                                                                                                        1993

                                                                                                                               1995

                                                                                                                                      1997

                                                                                                                                             1999

                                                                                                                                                    2001

                                                                                                                                                           2003
                                                Data source: based on data from FAOSTAT 2006
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
Poverty effects: Trade

     • Empirical results mixed

     • Trade reform impacts at household level
       e.g. Hertel et al., 2003 (Brazil)
         Higher poverty in non-agricultural and wage
          dependent households
         Lower poverty in agriculture-dependent
          households

                  Winners (majority) and losers;
               effect of trade liberalization on poor
                     households’ income small
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
                                      Source: von Braun (2007)
Estimations of welfare benefits of trade
              liberalization: studies 1999 - 2006




                                      Source: Bouët, IFPRI, 2006
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
2) Investment & capital flows




Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
Drivers:
             (2) Investment and capital flows
                             1990
                   Industrial countries   Developing countries        FDI in food and Agriculture
      100
       80
                                                                        as % of world total FDI
       60                                                                    1990 and 2004
       40
       20
       0
              Agriculture, hunting,        Food, beverages and                           2004
              forestry and fishing               tobacco

                                                                  Industrial countries     Developing countries
                                                                  Transition countries
                                                         100
                                                          80
                                                          60
                                                          40
                                                          20
                                                            0
                                                                 Agriculture, hunting,          Food, beverages and
                                                                 forestry and fishing                 tobacco

                                          Source: based on data from UNCTAD, 2004
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
Poverty effects: FDI

                                                 FDI
                Labor Intensive                                      Capital / Knowledge
                     Sector                                            Intensive Sector

          Unskilled labor                                                     Skilled labor


                     Reduced                                            Increased
                      Poverty                                              Poverty


     • Other: Economic growth through forward and backward
       linkages + knowledge spillovers;
     • government revenue from corporate taxes for pro-poor
       investments
         Vietnam: FDI in rural areas, direct impact on poverty
                   insignificant (Nguyen, 2003)

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
                                          Source: von Braun (2007)
With a blending target of 15 percent of
                                transport fuel…




                                      3) Information & innovation




Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
Drivers:
                           ICT and information flows

                                       Ongoing technological advances
                                       Privatization of national telecom.
                                        monopolies in many developing
                                        countries in 1980s and 1990s




Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
Drivers: ICT Revolution

         500
                                 Fixed line and mobile phone subscribers
         400                                 (Per 1,000 people)
         300
         200
         100
           0
               1975     1978     1981   1984   1987    1990     1993    1996   1999   2002


             150                             Internet users
                           World           (Per 1,000 people)
             100           Low income
                           Middle income
               50

                0
                     1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

                                        Data source: World Bank, 2006
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
Poverty effects: ICT
                                 (macro-level results)
     •      ICTs reduce transaction costs + open
            markets + additional network externalities

     •      Tele-density is positively associated with
            growth:
           -     10 more mobiles per 100 people increase
                 GDP p.c. by 0.6% (Wavermann et. al., 2004)
           -     Minimum threshold: around 15% to get
                 strongest growth effects, actual is only 6%

           Torero and von Braun, 2006

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
Regional integration: trading Systems in Comesa



                                    Warehouse Receipt
                                   Commodity Exchange
                                          IFPRI




                                                    EAGC
                                                    • Rules of Trade
 Uganda Commodity                                   •Contracts
     Exchange                                       KACE
 Warehouse Receipt
        EU
                                             Commodity Exchanges
                                             • ACE
                                             • MACE
Warehouse Receipt
• ZACA




                                            SAFEX
Poverty effects: ICT
                             (micro-level results)
                 Consequences of limited rural access

    • Rural households willing to pay more than prevailing
     tariff rates per local call:
                      Peru: US$ 0.25 to 0.35
                      Bangladesh: US$ 0.10 to 0.26




                                      Source: Torero and von Braun, 2006

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
Science and technology

     • Rapid expansion of R&D spending:
       - China: 2007 = No. 2 (136 Bill.$; 926.000
         Scientists) ; USA = 330 Bill$; EU = 230 Bill$)
       - India: fast growth
       - Africa’s new policy (AU Summit)

     • Rural / Agriculture science and R&D?
     9 of 17 innovations scoring highest in the 2006
       RAND assessment relate to rural & agric.

     • China, India, Brazil go global with their
       innovation systems in agriculture (in different
       ways; research, higher education)
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
Global Public Agricultural R&D: 1981 and 2000

                                  1981             2000
                              $15.2 billion*   $23.0 billion*
                    100%
                                                                Middle East-North Africa

                                                                Latin America-Caribbean
                      80%
                                                                Other Asia-Pacific

                      60%
                                                                India

                                                                China
                      40%                                       Sub-Saharan Africa

                                                                Developed
                      20%



                       0%
                                                                 * in 2000 international prices


Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
A changing environment for
                           innovation
      • Introduction of patent rights for
        agricultural inventions under TRIPS
        agreement
      • Bio-safety regimes and reduced exchange
        (e.g. genetic resources)

           - Technology spillover pathways to
          developing countries for productivity
                 enhancement reduced
      - Less global public goods research when
             we need more of it (climate, etc.)
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
3. Policy implications for pro-poor
                           globalization


        •       Global and national market & trade policy

        •       Facilitation of capital and aid flows

        •       Development in rural areas, where the
                poor are (ICT, and infrastructure)

        •       Enhancing the global innovation systems

        •       Rural social protection policy
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
Toward global social policies

     • Global social policy ? Promising but not
       comprehensive efforts:
           -   Human right to food
           -   Global emergency aid
           -   Disaster response
           -   Child labor in agriculture
           -   Global health policy initiatives

     • Innovations in social policy [e.g. conditional
       cash transfers]

     • G8 call for social protection


                                      Source: von Braun, 2007
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
The world food system globalizes:
       global value added and competitiveness ?
   Agricultural                                         Food




                                                                                       Consumers
      input                                          processors           Food
    industry                          Farms          and traders        retailers


  top 10: $37 bln               Agricultural       top 10: $363 bln   top 10:$777bln
                              value added:
     • Syngenta                $1,315 bln            • Nestle          • Wal-Mart
     • Bayer                                         • Cargill         • Carrefour
     • BASF                    450 million           • Unilever        • Royal Ahold




                                                                                       $4,000 billion
     • Monsanto               >100 ha: 0.5%                            • Metro AG
                                                     • ADM
     • DuPont                                        • Kraft Foods     • Tesco
                                < 2 ha: 85%




                                         Source: von Braun, 2005
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
What future for the small farms?

                                                                Number of farms
     Farm Size (ha)                   % of all farms
                                                                  (millions)
     <2                                        85                    387
     2 - 10                                    12                     54
     10 - 100                                 2.7                     12
     > 100                                    0.5                      2
     Total                                    100                    455

           The numbers still increase in Africa and South Asia
                                      Source: von Braun, 2003
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
Where will be the jobs?
                         sectoral & spatial labor flows
                      in global employment …2020 (Bill.)

                           Farm Services &                    Services &              Total
                                         Industry              Industry-
                                        Rural areas           Urban areas
        2005                  0.9              0.6                  1.5                 3.0
        2020                  0.6              1.0                  1.9                 3.5

     Change                  - 0.3            +0.4                 +0.4                +0.5
      2005-
      2020
                                Estimates based on ILO economically active populations projections
                                      and own estimates of sector shares, J. von Braun, 2005


Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
Small farms and small businesses
                    can participate




                                          +25 jobs



       From a 2 ha. rice farm to fruit
               processing firm
      in Uttar Pradesh: training (her),
             banking was key;
                and the road
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
Questions & preliminary answers

     1. what are the effects of globalization of the agri-
        food system on the poor?
     • Generally favorable but mixed;
     • exclusion of the poorest in rural areas

     2. (erstwhile) transforming economies +
         globalization: how did globalization impact on
         poverty in these economies?
     • Strong evidence of poverty reducing growth
     • domestic policies more important than global
         context
            And all these remain research issues
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007

Weitere ähnliche Inhalte

Andere mochten auch

Globalization, debt relief and poverty reduction
Globalization, debt relief and poverty reductionGlobalization, debt relief and poverty reduction
Globalization, debt relief and poverty reductionitargeting
 
Christian Ethics, Economics & Globalization2 Emm Coll 1 Dec09
Christian Ethics, Economics & Globalization2 Emm Coll 1 Dec09Christian Ethics, Economics & Globalization2 Emm Coll 1 Dec09
Christian Ethics, Economics & Globalization2 Emm Coll 1 Dec09Massey College, Toronto
 
Biblical Fellowship (koinonia)
Biblical Fellowship (koinonia)Biblical Fellowship (koinonia)
Biblical Fellowship (koinonia)spiritntruth
 
09 Perfection Philippians 3:12-16
09 Perfection Philippians 3:12-1609 Perfection Philippians 3:12-16
09 Perfection Philippians 3:12-16Rick Peterson
 
MBA for Church Leaders
MBA for Church LeadersMBA for Church Leaders
MBA for Church LeadersConvergence
 
Growing As A Leader
Growing As A LeaderGrowing As A Leader
Growing As A LeaderBong Baylon
 
Externally Focused Church Introduction
Externally Focused Church IntroductionExternally Focused Church Introduction
Externally Focused Church IntroductionDJ Chuang
 
601 Spiritual Leadership: Section 13, Chapter 3, Spiritual Foundation
601 Spiritual Leadership: Section 13, Chapter 3, Spiritual Foundation601 Spiritual Leadership: Section 13, Chapter 3, Spiritual Foundation
601 Spiritual Leadership: Section 13, Chapter 3, Spiritual FoundationRichard Chamberlain
 
Topic: Fellowship for Wednesday Night Auditorium Class; February 25, 2015
Topic: Fellowship for Wednesday Night Auditorium Class; February 25, 2015Topic: Fellowship for Wednesday Night Auditorium Class; February 25, 2015
Topic: Fellowship for Wednesday Night Auditorium Class; February 25, 2015M. Monte Tatom
 
Facing a Globalised Future: rehabilitation international competence through n...
Facing a Globalised Future: rehabilitation international competence through n...Facing a Globalised Future: rehabilitation international competence through n...
Facing a Globalised Future: rehabilitation international competence through n...Alan Bruce
 
I Give Thanks to My God Philippians
I Give Thanks to My God  Philippians I Give Thanks to My God  Philippians
I Give Thanks to My God Philippians blackforestchapelorg
 
Trinity Kings World Leadership: God's No. #1 Priority is the Restoration of H...
Trinity Kings World Leadership: God's No. #1 Priority is the Restoration of H...Trinity Kings World Leadership: God's No. #1 Priority is the Restoration of H...
Trinity Kings World Leadership: God's No. #1 Priority is the Restoration of H...Terrell Patillo
 
Santana, De Mattos Freire and Monte-Mor - input2012
Santana, De Mattos Freire and Monte-Mor - input2012Santana, De Mattos Freire and Monte-Mor - input2012
Santana, De Mattos Freire and Monte-Mor - input2012INPUT 2012
 

Andere mochten auch (18)

Globalization, debt relief and poverty reduction
Globalization, debt relief and poverty reductionGlobalization, debt relief and poverty reduction
Globalization, debt relief and poverty reduction
 
Tbi Curriculum Abortion Is About God
Tbi Curriculum Abortion Is About GodTbi Curriculum Abortion Is About God
Tbi Curriculum Abortion Is About God
 
Christian Ethics, Economics & Globalization2 Emm Coll 1 Dec09
Christian Ethics, Economics & Globalization2 Emm Coll 1 Dec09Christian Ethics, Economics & Globalization2 Emm Coll 1 Dec09
Christian Ethics, Economics & Globalization2 Emm Coll 1 Dec09
 
Biblical Fellowship (koinonia)
Biblical Fellowship (koinonia)Biblical Fellowship (koinonia)
Biblical Fellowship (koinonia)
 
09 Perfection Philippians 3:12-16
09 Perfection Philippians 3:12-1609 Perfection Philippians 3:12-16
09 Perfection Philippians 3:12-16
 
MBA for Church Leaders
MBA for Church LeadersMBA for Church Leaders
MBA for Church Leaders
 
knowledge that motivated paul
knowledge that motivated paulknowledge that motivated paul
knowledge that motivated paul
 
Growing As A Leader
Growing As A LeaderGrowing As A Leader
Growing As A Leader
 
Externally Focused Church Introduction
Externally Focused Church IntroductionExternally Focused Church Introduction
Externally Focused Church Introduction
 
Philippians 3
Philippians 3Philippians 3
Philippians 3
 
601 Spiritual Leadership: Section 13, Chapter 3, Spiritual Foundation
601 Spiritual Leadership: Section 13, Chapter 3, Spiritual Foundation601 Spiritual Leadership: Section 13, Chapter 3, Spiritual Foundation
601 Spiritual Leadership: Section 13, Chapter 3, Spiritual Foundation
 
Millard Fuller
Millard FullerMillard Fuller
Millard Fuller
 
Topic: Fellowship for Wednesday Night Auditorium Class; February 25, 2015
Topic: Fellowship for Wednesday Night Auditorium Class; February 25, 2015Topic: Fellowship for Wednesday Night Auditorium Class; February 25, 2015
Topic: Fellowship for Wednesday Night Auditorium Class; February 25, 2015
 
Facing a Globalised Future: rehabilitation international competence through n...
Facing a Globalised Future: rehabilitation international competence through n...Facing a Globalised Future: rehabilitation international competence through n...
Facing a Globalised Future: rehabilitation international competence through n...
 
I Give Thanks to My God Philippians
I Give Thanks to My God  Philippians I Give Thanks to My God  Philippians
I Give Thanks to My God Philippians
 
Globalization
GlobalizationGlobalization
Globalization
 
Trinity Kings World Leadership: God's No. #1 Priority is the Restoration of H...
Trinity Kings World Leadership: God's No. #1 Priority is the Restoration of H...Trinity Kings World Leadership: God's No. #1 Priority is the Restoration of H...
Trinity Kings World Leadership: God's No. #1 Priority is the Restoration of H...
 
Santana, De Mattos Freire and Monte-Mor - input2012
Santana, De Mattos Freire and Monte-Mor - input2012Santana, De Mattos Freire and Monte-Mor - input2012
Santana, De Mattos Freire and Monte-Mor - input2012
 

Ähnlich wie Globalization,Rural Sector Transformation, and Poverty

Globalization of the agri-food system and the poor in developing countries Dr...
Globalization of the agri-food system and the poor in developing countriesDr...Globalization of the agri-food system and the poor in developing countriesDr...
Globalization of the agri-food system and the poor in developing countries Dr...Joachim von Braun
 
Globalization of Food and Agriculture and the Poor: Driving Forces, Consequen...
Globalization of Food and Agriculture and the Poor: Driving Forces, Consequen...Globalization of Food and Agriculture and the Poor: Driving Forces, Consequen...
Globalization of Food and Agriculture and the Poor: Driving Forces, Consequen...Joachim von Braun
 
20 lilyan fulginiti
20   lilyan fulginiti20   lilyan fulginiti
20 lilyan fulginitijillbrown14
 
Food Security in the 21st Century: Actions for Better Governance, Market Fun...
Food Security in the 21st Century:  Actions for Better Governance, Market Fun...Food Security in the 21st Century:  Actions for Better Governance, Market Fun...
Food Security in the 21st Century: Actions for Better Governance, Market Fun...Joachim von Braun
 
Livestock in a Changing Landscape. Overview of Key Issues, Drivers, Consequen...
Livestock in a Changing Landscape. Overview of Key Issues, Drivers, Consequen...Livestock in a Changing Landscape. Overview of Key Issues, Drivers, Consequen...
Livestock in a Changing Landscape. Overview of Key Issues, Drivers, Consequen...copppldsecretariat
 
Institutional Innovation and Investment in Rural Public Goods for Development...
Institutional Innovation and Investment in Rural Public Goods for Development...Institutional Innovation and Investment in Rural Public Goods for Development...
Institutional Innovation and Investment in Rural Public Goods for Development...Joachim von Braun
 
Land Uses, Other Natural Resources Uses and Food Security
Land Uses, Other Natural Resources Uses and Food SecurityLand Uses, Other Natural Resources Uses and Food Security
Land Uses, Other Natural Resources Uses and Food SecurityJoachim von Braun
 
Challenges in Implementing Tobacco Dependence Treatment in Jordan and the Eas...
Challenges in Implementing Tobacco Dependence Treatment in Jordan and the Eas...Challenges in Implementing Tobacco Dependence Treatment in Jordan and the Eas...
Challenges in Implementing Tobacco Dependence Treatment in Jordan and the Eas...Global Bridges
 
Agriculture for Sustainable Economic Development: A Global R&D Initiative to ...
Agriculture for Sustainable Economic Development: A Global R&D Initiative to ...Agriculture for Sustainable Economic Development: A Global R&D Initiative to ...
Agriculture for Sustainable Economic Development: A Global R&D Initiative to ...Joachim von Braun
 
2008:Global Inflation and Economic Slowdown: Macroeconomic Policy Options for...
2008:Global Inflation and Economic Slowdown: Macroeconomic Policy Options for...2008:Global Inflation and Economic Slowdown: Macroeconomic Policy Options for...
2008:Global Inflation and Economic Slowdown: Macroeconomic Policy Options for...econsultbw
 
2008:lobal Inflation and Economic Slowdown: Macroeconomic Policy Options for ...
2008:lobal Inflation and Economic Slowdown: Macroeconomic Policy Options for ...2008:lobal Inflation and Economic Slowdown: Macroeconomic Policy Options for ...
2008:lobal Inflation and Economic Slowdown: Macroeconomic Policy Options for ...econsultbw
 
World Wealth Report 2010
World Wealth Report 2010World Wealth Report 2010
World Wealth Report 2010Wealth Partners
 

Ähnlich wie Globalization,Rural Sector Transformation, and Poverty (20)

Globalization of the agri-food system and the poor in developing countries Dr...
Globalization of the agri-food system and the poor in developing countriesDr...Globalization of the agri-food system and the poor in developing countriesDr...
Globalization of the agri-food system and the poor in developing countries Dr...
 
Globalization of Food and Agriculture and the Poor: Driving Forces, Consequen...
Globalization of Food and Agriculture and the Poor: Driving Forces, Consequen...Globalization of Food and Agriculture and the Poor: Driving Forces, Consequen...
Globalization of Food and Agriculture and the Poor: Driving Forces, Consequen...
 
20 lilyan fulginiti
20   lilyan fulginiti20   lilyan fulginiti
20 lilyan fulginiti
 
Food Security in the 21st Century: Actions for Better Governance, Market Fun...
Food Security in the 21st Century:  Actions for Better Governance, Market Fun...Food Security in the 21st Century:  Actions for Better Governance, Market Fun...
Food Security in the 21st Century: Actions for Better Governance, Market Fun...
 
Livestock in a Changing Landscape. Overview of Key Issues, Drivers, Consequen...
Livestock in a Changing Landscape. Overview of Key Issues, Drivers, Consequen...Livestock in a Changing Landscape. Overview of Key Issues, Drivers, Consequen...
Livestock in a Changing Landscape. Overview of Key Issues, Drivers, Consequen...
 
Institutional Innovation and Investment in Rural Public Goods for Development...
Institutional Innovation and Investment in Rural Public Goods for Development...Institutional Innovation and Investment in Rural Public Goods for Development...
Institutional Innovation and Investment in Rural Public Goods for Development...
 
Hunger and Food Security
Hunger and Food SecurityHunger and Food Security
Hunger and Food Security
 
Ensuring Global Food and Nutrition Security: The Role of Europe
Ensuring Global Food and Nutrition Security: The Role of Europe Ensuring Global Food and Nutrition Security: The Role of Europe
Ensuring Global Food and Nutrition Security: The Role of Europe
 
Urban Food Systems for Better Diets, Nutrition, and Health
Urban Food Systems for Better Diets, Nutrition, and HealthUrban Food Systems for Better Diets, Nutrition, and Health
Urban Food Systems for Better Diets, Nutrition, and Health
 
Land Uses, Other Natural Resources Uses and Food Security
Land Uses, Other Natural Resources Uses and Food SecurityLand Uses, Other Natural Resources Uses and Food Security
Land Uses, Other Natural Resources Uses and Food Security
 
Urban & Rural Food Security in Asia 2011
Urban & Rural Food Security in Asia 2011Urban & Rural Food Security in Asia 2011
Urban & Rural Food Security in Asia 2011
 
Challenges in Implementing Tobacco Dependence Treatment in Jordan and the Eas...
Challenges in Implementing Tobacco Dependence Treatment in Jordan and the Eas...Challenges in Implementing Tobacco Dependence Treatment in Jordan and the Eas...
Challenges in Implementing Tobacco Dependence Treatment in Jordan and the Eas...
 
Agriculture for Sustainable Economic Development: A Global R&D Initiative to ...
Agriculture for Sustainable Economic Development: A Global R&D Initiative to ...Agriculture for Sustainable Economic Development: A Global R&D Initiative to ...
Agriculture for Sustainable Economic Development: A Global R&D Initiative to ...
 
2008:Global Inflation and Economic Slowdown: Macroeconomic Policy Options for...
2008:Global Inflation and Economic Slowdown: Macroeconomic Policy Options for...2008:Global Inflation and Economic Slowdown: Macroeconomic Policy Options for...
2008:Global Inflation and Economic Slowdown: Macroeconomic Policy Options for...
 
2008:lobal Inflation and Economic Slowdown: Macroeconomic Policy Options for ...
2008:lobal Inflation and Economic Slowdown: Macroeconomic Policy Options for ...2008:lobal Inflation and Economic Slowdown: Macroeconomic Policy Options for ...
2008:lobal Inflation and Economic Slowdown: Macroeconomic Policy Options for ...
 
2 van der Mensbrugghe- Insights from global model intercomparisons
2 van der Mensbrugghe- Insights from global model intercomparisons2 van der Mensbrugghe- Insights from global model intercomparisons
2 van der Mensbrugghe- Insights from global model intercomparisons
 
Justin paper
Justin paperJustin paper
Justin paper
 
Fifty Years of Distortions in Worls Food Markets
Fifty Years of Distortions in Worls Food Markets Fifty Years of Distortions in Worls Food Markets
Fifty Years of Distortions in Worls Food Markets
 
World Wealth Report 2010
World Wealth Report 2010World Wealth Report 2010
World Wealth Report 2010
 
The World Food Situation
The World Food SituationThe World Food Situation
The World Food Situation
 

Mehr von Joachim von Braun

Climate Change and Food Security
Climate Change and Food SecurityClimate Change and Food Security
Climate Change and Food SecurityJoachim von Braun
 
Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security
Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food SecurityClimate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security
Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food SecurityJoachim von Braun
 
Access to Food: Safety Nets and Hunger Solutions for the Most Needy
Access to Food: Safety Nets and Hunger Solutions for the Most NeedyAccess to Food: Safety Nets and Hunger Solutions for the Most Needy
Access to Food: Safety Nets and Hunger Solutions for the Most NeedyJoachim von Braun
 
Confronting the Food Price Challenge
Confronting the Food Price ChallengeConfronting the Food Price Challenge
Confronting the Food Price ChallengeJoachim von Braun
 
Why Hunger in Asia? Agricultural and Rural Development for Reducing Food Inse...
Why Hunger in Asia? Agricultural and Rural Development for Reducing Food Inse...Why Hunger in Asia? Agricultural and Rural Development for Reducing Food Inse...
Why Hunger in Asia? Agricultural and Rural Development for Reducing Food Inse...Joachim von Braun
 
Overcoming the World Food and Agriculture Crisis through Policy Change and Sc...
Overcoming the World Food and Agriculture Crisis through Policy Change and Sc...Overcoming the World Food and Agriculture Crisis through Policy Change and Sc...
Overcoming the World Food and Agriculture Crisis through Policy Change and Sc...Joachim von Braun
 
Commentary: Hunger Reduction with Agricultural R&D and Policy Change
Commentary: Hunger Reduction with  Agricultural R&D and Policy  ChangeCommentary: Hunger Reduction with  Agricultural R&D and Policy  Change
Commentary: Hunger Reduction with Agricultural R&D and Policy ChangeJoachim von Braun
 
Food and Financial Crises:Implications for Agriculture and the Poor
Food and Financial Crises:Implications for Agriculture and the PoorFood and Financial Crises:Implications for Agriculture and the Poor
Food and Financial Crises:Implications for Agriculture and the PoorJoachim von Braun
 
Virtual Global Food Reserve Policy to Protect the Poor and Prevent Market Fa...
Virtual Global Food Reserve Policy to Protect the Poor and Prevent Market Fa...Virtual Global Food Reserve Policy to Protect the Poor and Prevent Market Fa...
Virtual Global Food Reserve Policy to Protect the Poor and Prevent Market Fa...Joachim von Braun
 
The World Food Crisis: Political and Economic Consequences and Needed Actions
The World Food Crisis: Political and Economic Consequences and Needed ActionsThe World Food Crisis: Political and Economic Consequences and Needed Actions
The World Food Crisis: Political and Economic Consequences and Needed ActionsJoachim von Braun
 
Promises and Challenges When Food Makes Fuel
Promises and Challenges When Food Makes FuelPromises and Challenges When Food Makes Fuel
Promises and Challenges When Food Makes Fuel Joachim von Braun
 
CGIAR Platform on Agriculture and Health
CGIAR Platform on Agriculture and HealthCGIAR Platform on Agriculture and Health
CGIAR Platform on Agriculture and HealthJoachim von Braun
 
FOOD VS. FUEL Impacts of energy price increases on developing countries and t...
FOOD VS. FUEL Impacts of energy price increases on developing countries and t...FOOD VS. FUEL Impacts of energy price increases on developing countries and t...
FOOD VS. FUEL Impacts of energy price increases on developing countries and t...Joachim von Braun
 
Rural-Urban Linkages for Growth, Employment and Poverty Reduction
Rural-Urban Linkages for Growth, Employment and Poverty ReductionRural-Urban Linkages for Growth, Employment and Poverty Reduction
Rural-Urban Linkages for Growth, Employment and Poverty ReductionJoachim von Braun
 
Emerging Issues in Developing Countries’ Food and Agriculture: Challenges for...
Emerging Issues in Developing Countries’ Food and Agriculture: Challenges for...Emerging Issues in Developing Countries’ Food and Agriculture: Challenges for...
Emerging Issues in Developing Countries’ Food and Agriculture: Challenges for...Joachim von Braun
 
Neue Risiken für die Welternährung
Neue Risiken für die WelternährungNeue Risiken für die Welternährung
Neue Risiken für die WelternährungJoachim von Braun
 
Rural Non Farm Employment – getting the jobs done
Rural Non Farm Employment – getting the jobs doneRural Non Farm Employment – getting the jobs done
Rural Non Farm Employment – getting the jobs doneJoachim von Braun
 
The scope for food and agriculture policy research in Central Asia and the Ca...
The scope for food and agriculture policy research in Central Asia and the Ca...The scope for food and agriculture policy research in Central Asia and the Ca...
The scope for food and agriculture policy research in Central Asia and the Ca...Joachim von Braun
 

Mehr von Joachim von Braun (20)

Climate Change and Food Security
Climate Change and Food SecurityClimate Change and Food Security
Climate Change and Food Security
 
Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security
Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food SecurityClimate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security
Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security
 
Food Security Under Stress
Food Security Under StressFood Security Under Stress
Food Security Under Stress
 
Access to Food: Safety Nets and Hunger Solutions for the Most Needy
Access to Food: Safety Nets and Hunger Solutions for the Most NeedyAccess to Food: Safety Nets and Hunger Solutions for the Most Needy
Access to Food: Safety Nets and Hunger Solutions for the Most Needy
 
Confronting the Food Price Challenge
Confronting the Food Price ChallengeConfronting the Food Price Challenge
Confronting the Food Price Challenge
 
Why Hunger in Asia? Agricultural and Rural Development for Reducing Food Inse...
Why Hunger in Asia? Agricultural and Rural Development for Reducing Food Inse...Why Hunger in Asia? Agricultural and Rural Development for Reducing Food Inse...
Why Hunger in Asia? Agricultural and Rural Development for Reducing Food Inse...
 
Overcoming the World Food and Agriculture Crisis through Policy Change and Sc...
Overcoming the World Food and Agriculture Crisis through Policy Change and Sc...Overcoming the World Food and Agriculture Crisis through Policy Change and Sc...
Overcoming the World Food and Agriculture Crisis through Policy Change and Sc...
 
How Secure is Our Food?
How Secure is Our Food?How Secure is Our Food?
How Secure is Our Food?
 
Commentary: Hunger Reduction with Agricultural R&D and Policy Change
Commentary: Hunger Reduction with  Agricultural R&D and Policy  ChangeCommentary: Hunger Reduction with  Agricultural R&D and Policy  Change
Commentary: Hunger Reduction with Agricultural R&D and Policy Change
 
Food and Financial Crises:Implications for Agriculture and the Poor
Food and Financial Crises:Implications for Agriculture and the PoorFood and Financial Crises:Implications for Agriculture and the Poor
Food and Financial Crises:Implications for Agriculture and the Poor
 
Virtual Global Food Reserve Policy to Protect the Poor and Prevent Market Fa...
Virtual Global Food Reserve Policy to Protect the Poor and Prevent Market Fa...Virtual Global Food Reserve Policy to Protect the Poor and Prevent Market Fa...
Virtual Global Food Reserve Policy to Protect the Poor and Prevent Market Fa...
 
The World Food Crisis: Political and Economic Consequences and Needed Actions
The World Food Crisis: Political and Economic Consequences and Needed ActionsThe World Food Crisis: Political and Economic Consequences and Needed Actions
The World Food Crisis: Political and Economic Consequences and Needed Actions
 
Promises and Challenges When Food Makes Fuel
Promises and Challenges When Food Makes FuelPromises and Challenges When Food Makes Fuel
Promises and Challenges When Food Makes Fuel
 
CGIAR Platform on Agriculture and Health
CGIAR Platform on Agriculture and HealthCGIAR Platform on Agriculture and Health
CGIAR Platform on Agriculture and Health
 
FOOD VS. FUEL Impacts of energy price increases on developing countries and t...
FOOD VS. FUEL Impacts of energy price increases on developing countries and t...FOOD VS. FUEL Impacts of energy price increases on developing countries and t...
FOOD VS. FUEL Impacts of energy price increases on developing countries and t...
 
Rural-Urban Linkages for Growth, Employment and Poverty Reduction
Rural-Urban Linkages for Growth, Employment and Poverty ReductionRural-Urban Linkages for Growth, Employment and Poverty Reduction
Rural-Urban Linkages for Growth, Employment and Poverty Reduction
 
Emerging Issues in Developing Countries’ Food and Agriculture: Challenges for...
Emerging Issues in Developing Countries’ Food and Agriculture: Challenges for...Emerging Issues in Developing Countries’ Food and Agriculture: Challenges for...
Emerging Issues in Developing Countries’ Food and Agriculture: Challenges for...
 
Neue Risiken für die Welternährung
Neue Risiken für die WelternährungNeue Risiken für die Welternährung
Neue Risiken für die Welternährung
 
Rural Non Farm Employment – getting the jobs done
Rural Non Farm Employment – getting the jobs doneRural Non Farm Employment – getting the jobs done
Rural Non Farm Employment – getting the jobs done
 
The scope for food and agriculture policy research in Central Asia and the Ca...
The scope for food and agriculture policy research in Central Asia and the Ca...The scope for food and agriculture policy research in Central Asia and the Ca...
The scope for food and agriculture policy research in Central Asia and the Ca...
 

Globalization,Rural Sector Transformation, and Poverty

  • 1. International perspectives on poverty and transition in rural areas Globalization, Rural Sector Transformation, and Poverty Joachim von Braun International Food Policy Research Institute IAMO Forum 2007 Halle, June 27-29, 2007
  • 2. Overview 1. Issues and conceptual framework to assess globalization – poverty links 2. Key drivers of globalization - 1) Markets and trade - 2) Investment & capital flows - 3) Information & innovation and impact on poverty 3. Policy and research implications Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
  • 3. Context of change around the world food and agriculture system 1. Global economy’s fast growth 2. Governance and decentralization 3. Energy price and climate change 4. Health risks and agriculture 5. breakthroughs in science and technology 6. Urban/rural change & migration Not all global change is “globalization” Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
  • 4. Questions 1. what are the effects of globalization of the agri-food system on the poor? 2. Institutional challenges of (erstwhile) transforming economies & globalization: how did globalization impact on poverty in these economies? Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
  • 5. Patterns in TCs: Growth LOW & RUSS MID ETH UZB VIET UKR CHIN FED POL HUN Y Agriculture, value added (annual % growth) 1990 -94 1.4 -0.1 3.3 -8.0 4.6 -7.2 -4.2 -7.5 2.2 2000 -04 3.5 6.0 3.8 6.8 3.4 7.1 2.6 7.4 3.1 GDP growth (annual %) 1990 -94 0.7 -3.5 7.3 -12.3 10.9 -8.8 1.1 -3.2 2.8 2000 -04 5.2 4.8 7.2 8.4 9.2 6.9 3.1 4.4 4.9 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007 Source: WDI 2006
  • 6. Towards urbanization of poverty? Urban and rural share of the poor (%) 1993 2002 18.88 24.67 75.33 81.13 urban share of the poor (%) rural share of the poor (%) Source: Ravallion et al., 2007 Note: Poverty line is set at $1.08/day Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
  • 7. Mixed Evidence: Poverty headcount ratio at $1 and $2 a day (PPP) as % of total population Share of people living on less than $2 a day (% of population) Share of people living on less than $1 a day (% of population) 100 70 90 80 60 70 50 60 40 50 30 40 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Source: Based on data from the 2006 WDI database Note: 2002 data are preliminary Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
  • 8. Regional Hunger Trends 45 40.3 40 GH I 1981 35 GH I 1992 32 GH I 1997 30 27.9 27.3 27 26.6 GH I 2003 25.4 25.1 25 22.5 20 15.1 15 12.6 11.9 10.9 11.4 9.4 8.4 8.0 7.9 10 7.5 6.6 6.0 5.6 5 0 Sub-Saharan So uth A sia So utheast N ear East & Latin A merica Eastern A frica A sia N o rth A frica & C aribbean Euro pe & F o rmer So viet Unio n Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007 Source: Wiesmann, 2006
  • 9. What is “globalization of agriculture and food systems”? Definition: Global integration— across national borders—of production, processing, marketing, retailing, and consumption of agriculture and food items Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007 Source: von Braun and Diaz-Bonilla (2007)
  • 10. Conceptual framework: drivers and examples of changes at different levels of analysis MARKETS INVESTMENT INFORMATION SOCIAL & & POLICY CAPITAL INNOVATION FLOWS Exogenous factors GLOBALIZATION Increased Improved ICTs Aid; LEVEL I access to Expansion human outputs, Innovation & of FDI right to inputs, IPR food labor Competition Technology DOMESTIC policy LEVEL II POLICY policy Pro-poor Market social opening Political & Public R&D actions institutional investments changes RIGHTS HOUSEHOLDS LEVEL III PRICES EMPLOYMENT HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION PRODUCTION ENDOWMENTS Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007 Source: von Braun, 2007
  • 11. 1) Markets and trade Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
  • 12. 1. Trade: Stagnation of developing countries’ export shares, more global integration on the import side Agriculture trade in percent of production Export/Production 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000-02 Latin America and the Caribbean 23.6 24.7 24.5 26.7 31.4 Sub-Saharan Africa a 28.5 23 17.2 15.3 13.2 Asia Developing 5.4 5.7 6.4 6.4 6.4 All Three Regions 12.1 11.8 11.3 11.0 11.6 Import/Production 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000–02 Latin America and the Caribbean 6.7 8.6 11.2 14 15.7 Sub-Saharan Africa a 8.1 9.4 12.6 12.3 13.5 Asia Developing 7.1 7.7 9.2 8.9 8.8 All Three Regions 7.1 8.0 10.0 10.1 10.5 a Does not include South Africa. Data source: World Bank, WDI 2005 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
  • 13. Regional trade trends Agriculture trade in percent of total merchandise trade Agr. Exports/Total Merchandize 1980 1990 2000 2003 Transition countries 7.6 5.9 5.3 5.5 Latin America and Caribbean 27.8 26.1 17.4 20.6 Sub-Saharan Africa a 19.8 20.0 15.2 16.9 East and Southeast Asia 13.3 7.7 3.7 3.8 South Asia 33.8 18.6 10.8 10.6 Agr. Imports/Total Merchandise 1980 1990 2000 2003 Transition countries 18.4 14.1 9.3 8.4 Latin America and Caribbean 11.6 12.3 9.0 10.3 Sub-Saharan Africa a 15.4 16.3 17.1 17.9 East and Southeast Asia 14.2 8.0 4.8 4.7 South Asia 13.8 10.3 9.3 9.3 Data source: FAO, 2004; Note: a Does not include South Africa Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
  • 14. But: global increased trade in processed and high-value goods World export value (billions of US$) 100 90 Coarse Grains 80 Fruits & vegetables 70 Meat 60 Milk 50 40 30 20 10 0 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Data source: based on data from FAOSTAT 2006 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
  • 15. Poverty effects: Trade • Empirical results mixed • Trade reform impacts at household level e.g. Hertel et al., 2003 (Brazil)  Higher poverty in non-agricultural and wage dependent households  Lower poverty in agriculture-dependent households Winners (majority) and losers; effect of trade liberalization on poor households’ income small Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007 Source: von Braun (2007)
  • 16. Estimations of welfare benefits of trade liberalization: studies 1999 - 2006 Source: Bouët, IFPRI, 2006 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
  • 17. 2) Investment & capital flows Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
  • 18. Drivers: (2) Investment and capital flows 1990 Industrial countries Developing countries FDI in food and Agriculture 100 80 as % of world total FDI 60 1990 and 2004 40 20 0 Agriculture, hunting, Food, beverages and 2004 forestry and fishing tobacco Industrial countries Developing countries Transition countries 100 80 60 40 20 0 Agriculture, hunting, Food, beverages and forestry and fishing tobacco Source: based on data from UNCTAD, 2004 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
  • 19. Poverty effects: FDI FDI Labor Intensive Capital / Knowledge Sector Intensive Sector Unskilled labor Skilled labor Reduced Increased Poverty Poverty • Other: Economic growth through forward and backward linkages + knowledge spillovers; • government revenue from corporate taxes for pro-poor investments Vietnam: FDI in rural areas, direct impact on poverty insignificant (Nguyen, 2003) Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007 Source: von Braun (2007)
  • 20. With a blending target of 15 percent of transport fuel… 3) Information & innovation Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
  • 21. Drivers: ICT and information flows  Ongoing technological advances  Privatization of national telecom. monopolies in many developing countries in 1980s and 1990s Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
  • 22. Drivers: ICT Revolution 500 Fixed line and mobile phone subscribers 400 (Per 1,000 people) 300 200 100 0 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 150 Internet users World (Per 1,000 people) 100 Low income Middle income 50 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Data source: World Bank, 2006 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
  • 23. Poverty effects: ICT (macro-level results) • ICTs reduce transaction costs + open markets + additional network externalities • Tele-density is positively associated with growth: - 10 more mobiles per 100 people increase GDP p.c. by 0.6% (Wavermann et. al., 2004) - Minimum threshold: around 15% to get strongest growth effects, actual is only 6% Torero and von Braun, 2006 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
  • 24. Regional integration: trading Systems in Comesa Warehouse Receipt Commodity Exchange IFPRI EAGC • Rules of Trade Uganda Commodity •Contracts Exchange KACE Warehouse Receipt EU Commodity Exchanges • ACE • MACE Warehouse Receipt • ZACA SAFEX
  • 25. Poverty effects: ICT (micro-level results) Consequences of limited rural access • Rural households willing to pay more than prevailing tariff rates per local call: Peru: US$ 0.25 to 0.35 Bangladesh: US$ 0.10 to 0.26 Source: Torero and von Braun, 2006 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
  • 26. Science and technology • Rapid expansion of R&D spending: - China: 2007 = No. 2 (136 Bill.$; 926.000 Scientists) ; USA = 330 Bill$; EU = 230 Bill$) - India: fast growth - Africa’s new policy (AU Summit) • Rural / Agriculture science and R&D? 9 of 17 innovations scoring highest in the 2006 RAND assessment relate to rural & agric. • China, India, Brazil go global with their innovation systems in agriculture (in different ways; research, higher education) Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
  • 27. Global Public Agricultural R&D: 1981 and 2000 1981 2000 $15.2 billion* $23.0 billion* 100% Middle East-North Africa Latin America-Caribbean 80% Other Asia-Pacific 60% India China 40% Sub-Saharan Africa Developed 20% 0% * in 2000 international prices Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
  • 28. A changing environment for innovation • Introduction of patent rights for agricultural inventions under TRIPS agreement • Bio-safety regimes and reduced exchange (e.g. genetic resources) - Technology spillover pathways to developing countries for productivity enhancement reduced - Less global public goods research when we need more of it (climate, etc.) Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
  • 29. 3. Policy implications for pro-poor globalization • Global and national market & trade policy • Facilitation of capital and aid flows • Development in rural areas, where the poor are (ICT, and infrastructure) • Enhancing the global innovation systems • Rural social protection policy Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
  • 30. Toward global social policies • Global social policy ? Promising but not comprehensive efforts: - Human right to food - Global emergency aid - Disaster response - Child labor in agriculture - Global health policy initiatives • Innovations in social policy [e.g. conditional cash transfers] • G8 call for social protection Source: von Braun, 2007 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
  • 31. The world food system globalizes: global value added and competitiveness ? Agricultural Food Consumers input processors Food industry Farms and traders retailers top 10: $37 bln Agricultural top 10: $363 bln top 10:$777bln value added: • Syngenta $1,315 bln • Nestle • Wal-Mart • Bayer • Cargill • Carrefour • BASF 450 million • Unilever • Royal Ahold $4,000 billion • Monsanto >100 ha: 0.5% • Metro AG • ADM • DuPont • Kraft Foods • Tesco < 2 ha: 85% Source: von Braun, 2005 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
  • 32. What future for the small farms? Number of farms Farm Size (ha) % of all farms (millions) <2 85 387 2 - 10 12 54 10 - 100 2.7 12 > 100 0.5 2 Total 100 455 The numbers still increase in Africa and South Asia Source: von Braun, 2003 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
  • 33. Where will be the jobs? sectoral & spatial labor flows in global employment …2020 (Bill.) Farm Services & Services & Total Industry Industry- Rural areas Urban areas 2005 0.9 0.6 1.5 3.0 2020 0.6 1.0 1.9 3.5 Change - 0.3 +0.4 +0.4 +0.5 2005- 2020 Estimates based on ILO economically active populations projections and own estimates of sector shares, J. von Braun, 2005 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
  • 34. Small farms and small businesses can participate +25 jobs From a 2 ha. rice farm to fruit processing firm in Uttar Pradesh: training (her), banking was key; and the road Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007
  • 35. Questions & preliminary answers 1. what are the effects of globalization of the agri- food system on the poor? • Generally favorable but mixed; • exclusion of the poorest in rural areas 2. (erstwhile) transforming economies + globalization: how did globalization impact on poverty in these economies? • Strong evidence of poverty reducing growth • domestic policies more important than global context And all these remain research issues Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2007