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Economics for Journalists
    Week 6: Trade

    Jeffrey Timmermans


Monday, 27 February, 12
Absolute advantage


                   “The producer that requires a smaller quantity of inputs to
                    produce a good is said to have an absolute advantage in
                                    producing that good.”
                                                              – N. Gregory Mankiw,
                                                             Principles of Economics




Monday, 27 February, 12
Comparative advantage


                “The producer who gives up less of other goods to produce [a
                    particular good] has the smaller opportunity cost of
                   producing [that particular good] and is said to have a
                          comparative advantage in producing it.”
                                                           – N. Gregory Mankiw,
                                                          Principles of Economics




Monday, 27 February, 12
What do these countries have in
    common?
    ✤    China            ✤   India

    ✤    Morocco          ✤   Turkey

    ✤    Sri Lanka        ✤   Bangladesh

    ✤    Colombia         ✤   Cambodia

    ✤    Lesotho          ✤   Mexico




Monday, 27 February, 12
And the answer is....

    ✤    All ten countries supply
         clothing to U.S. discount
         clothing retailer Old Navy

    ✤    Old Navy sources its products
         from around 50 countries




                                                      Photo: Boone NC Magazine
    ✤    Men’s T-shirt for US$3.99

    ✤    Old Navy sold US$1.62 billion
         in merchandise in 4Q 2011

    Sources: Gap Inc. 10-Q filing, Old Navy Web site

Monday, 27 February, 12
Volume of monthly exports, 1998-2009




      Source: WTO secretariat


Monday, 27 February, 12
Effects of trade on an exporting
    country
                                         Domestic
                            Price of      Supply
                            Textiles




                          Price before
                             Trade




                                         Domestic
                                         Demand

                                          Quantity of
                                           Textiles




Monday, 27 February, 12
Effects of trade on an exporting
    country
                                                     Domestic
                            Price of                  Supply
                            Textiles



                                         Consumer
                                           Surplus
                          Price before
                             Trade




                                                     Domestic
                                                     Demand

                                                      Quantity of
                                                       Textiles




Monday, 27 February, 12
Effects of trade on an exporting
    country
                                         Domestic
                            Price of      Supply
                            Textiles




                          Price before
                             Trade




                                         Domestic
                                         Demand

                                          Quantity of
                                           Textiles




Monday, 27 February, 12
Effects of trade on an exporting
    country
                                                   Domestic
                            Price of                Supply
                            Textiles     Exports


                          Price after
                            Trade


                          Price before
                             Trade
                                         {              World
                                                        Price




                                                   Domestic
                                                   Demand

                                                    Quantity of
                                                     Textiles




Monday, 27 February, 12
Effects of trade on an exporting
    country
                                                   Domestic
                            Price of                Supply
                            Textiles     Exports


                          Price after
                            Trade


                          Price before
                             Trade
                                         {              World
                                                        Price




                                                   Domestic
                                                   Demand

                                                    Quantity of
                                                     Textiles




Monday, 27 February, 12
Effects of trade on an importing
    country
                                         Domestic
                            Price of      Supply
                            Textiles




                          Price before
                             Trade




                                         Domestic
                                         Demand

                                          Quantity of
                                           Textiles




Monday, 27 February, 12
Effects of trade on an importing
    country
                                                     Domestic
                            Price of                  Supply
                            Textiles



                                         Consumer
                                           Surplus
                          Price before
                             Trade




                                                     Domestic
                                                     Demand

                                                      Quantity of
                                                       Textiles




Monday, 27 February, 12
Effects of trade on an importing
    country
                                         Domestic
                            Price of      Supply
                            Textiles




                          Price before
                             Trade




                                         Domestic
                                         Demand

                                          Quantity of
                                           Textiles




Monday, 27 February, 12
Effects of trade on an importing
    country
                                                   Domestic
                            Price of                Supply
                            Textiles




                          Price before
                             Trade

                                                        World
                          Price after
                            Trade
                                         {
                                         Imports
                                                        Price


                                                   Domestic
                                                   Demand

                                                    Quantity of
                                                     Textiles




Monday, 27 February, 12
Effects of trade on an importing
    country
                                                               Domestic
                            Price of                            Supply
                            Textiles




                                         Consumer
                                           Surplus
                          Price before
                             Trade

                                                                    World
                          Price after
                            Trade
                                                {    Imports
                                                                    Price


                                                               Domestic
                                                               Demand

                                                                Quantity of
                                                                 Textiles




Monday, 27 February, 12
Free trade: winners



    ✤    Domestic consumers in importing countries

    ✤    Domestic producers in exporting countries




Monday, 27 February, 12
Free trade: losers



    ✤    Domestic consumers in exporting countries

    ✤    Domestic producers in importing countries




Monday, 27 February, 12
Other benefits of trade

    ✤    Overall economic well-being increases

          ✤    But not for everyone

    ✤    Variety of available goods increases

    ✤    Increased competition

    ✤    Enhanced flow of ideas




Monday, 27 February, 12
Arguments against trade


    ✤    Eliminates jobs

    ✤    Endangers national security

    ✤    Harms developing industries

    ✤    Unfair competition (dumping)




Monday, 27 February, 12
“Buy American”




                                                         Source: CNN
                          CNN’s Lou Dobbs on “Buy American”



Monday, 27 February, 12
Government trade policies



    ✤    Trade barriers

    ✤    Trade subsidies

    ✤    Free-trade agreements




Monday, 27 February, 12
Trade barriers: the obvious ones

    ✤    Tariffs

    ✤    Licenses

    ✤    Quotas

    ✤    Subsidies

    ✤    Content requirements

    ✤    Embargo


Monday, 27 February, 12
Trade subsidies

    ✤    The U.S. paid domestic farmers $245.2 billion in subsidies from
         1995-2009, including $15.4 billion in 2009

          ✤    10% of farmers received 74% of subsidies

          ✤    Corn subsidies totaled $73.8 billion (1995-2009)

    ✤    The E.U.’s Common Agricultural Policy costs €55 billion per year, or
         around 40% of the total E.U. budget


    Sources: Environmental Working Group, European Union



Monday, 27 February, 12
Trade barriers: the less obvious

    ✤    “Quality” requirements

    ✤    Health concerns

    ✤    Packaging

    ✤    Labeling

    ✤    Other product standards

    ✤    Dense bureaucracy


Monday, 27 February, 12
Effects of a tariff
                                                                Domestic
                            Price of                             Supply
                            Textiles




                                          Consumer
                          Price without     Surplus
                              Trade




                                                                    World Price
                                             }
             Producer
              Surplus                                           Domestic
                                                      Imports   Demand
                                                                 Quantity of
                                                                  Textiles




Monday, 27 February, 12
Effects of a tariff
                                          Domestic
                            Price of       Supply
                            Textiles




                          Price without
                              Trade




                                              World Price

                                          Domestic
                                          Demand
                                           Quantity of
                                            Textiles




Monday, 27 February, 12
Effects of a tariff
                                                         Domestic
                            Price of                      Supply
                            Textiles




                          Price without
                              Trade


                           Price after
                              Tariff
                                          {
                                          Imports
                                                    Tariff
                                                               World Price

                                                         Domestic
                                                         Demand
                                                             Quantity of
                                                              Textiles




Monday, 27 February, 12
Effects of a tariff
                                                                     Domestic
                            Price of                                  Supply
                            Textiles




                                          Consumer
                                            Surplus
                          Price without
                              Trade


                           Price after
                              Tariff
                                                  {   Imports
                                                                Tariff
                                                                           World Price

                                                                     Domestic
                                                                     Demand
                                                                         Quantity of
                                                                          Textiles




Monday, 27 February, 12
Effects of a tariff
                                                                     Domestic
                            Price of                                  Supply
                            Textiles




                                          Consumer
                                            Surplus
                          Price without
                              Trade


                           Price after
                              Tariff
                                                  {   Imports
                                                                Tariff
                                                                           World Price

                                                                     Domestic
                                                                     Demand
              Producer                                                   Quantity of
               Surplus                                                    Textiles




Monday, 27 February, 12
Trade: a zero-sum game



    ✤    One country’s trade surplus is another country’s trade deficit

    ✤    If China exports a T-shirt to the U.S., the value of that T-shirt is
         counted as a credit (addition) to China’s trade balance and as a debit
         (subtraction) to the U.S. trade balance




Monday, 27 February, 12
Balance of Payments

    ✤    While GDP reports a country’s output of goods & services, a Balance
         of Payments (BOP) statement records a country’s cross-border
         transactions, both current account transactions and capital
         transactions

    ✤    The two sides of a BOP statement must always balance

          ✤    A deficit in the current account must be matched by an equivalent
               surplus in the capital account

          ✤    In other words, a country that runs a $1 billion current account
               deficit must finance it by attracting $1 billion in capital


Monday, 27 February, 12
Structure of a BOP statement

    ✤    Current Account

          ✤    Balance on trade in goods (Exports - Imports)

          ✤    Balance on trade in services

          ✤    Net income & net unilateral transfers

    ✤    Capital & Financial Account

    ✤    Errors & Omissions


Monday, 27 February, 12
BOP: Current Account

    ✤    Debits (subtractions)           ✤   Credits (additions)

          ✤    Imports                       ✤   Exports

          ✤    Income payments               ✤   Income receipts

          ✤    Increase in reserves          ✤   Decrease in reserves

          ✤    All are uses of foreign       ✤   All are sources of foreign
               exchange                          exchange




Monday, 27 February, 12
Bureau of Economic Analysis
     U.S. International Transactions Accounts Data
     Table Creation Date: December 15, 2009 Release Date: December 16, 2009


     Table 1. U.S. International Transactions
     [Millions of dollars]
                                    (Credits +; debits -)/1/          2008                                                                    2008
                                        Current account
     Exports of goods and services and income receipts             2591233   Imports of goods and services and income payments             -3168938
      Exports of goods and services                                1826596    Imports of goods and services                                -2522532
       Goods, balance of payments basis/2/                         1276994     Goods, balance of payments basis/2/                         -2117245
       Services/3/                                                  549602     Services/3/                                                  -405287
         Transfers under U.S. military agency sales contracts/4/     22571       Direct defense expenditures                                 -36452
         Travel                                                     110090       Travel                                                      -79743
          Passenger fares                                            31623       Passenger fares                                             -32597
          Other transportation                                       58945       Other transportation                                        -72143
          Royalties and license fees/5/                              91599       Royalties and license fees/5/                               -26616
          Other private services/5/                                 233529       Other private services/5/                                  -153267
          U.S. government miscellaneous services                      1245       U.S. government miscellaneous services                       -4469
      Income receipts                                               764637    Income payments                                               -646406
       Income receipts on U.S.-owned assets abroad                  761593     Income payments on foreign-owned assets in the United States -636043
          Direct investment receipts                                370747       Direct investment payments                                 -120862
          Other private receipts                                    385940       Other private payments                                     -349871
          U.S. government receipts                                    4906       U.S. government payments                                   -165310
       Compensation of employees                                      3044     Compensation of employees                                     -10364
                                                                             Unilateral current transfers, net                              -128363
                                                                              U.S. government grants/4/                                      -36003
                                                                              U.S. government pensions and other transfers                    -8390
                                                                              Private remittances and other transfers/6/                     -83970
             Memoranda:
             Balance on goods (lines 3 and 20)                     -36485
             Balance on services (lines 4 and 21)                   12329
             Balance on goods and services (lines 2 and 19)        -24156
             Balance on income (lines 12 and 29)                    35164
             Unilateral current transfers, net (line 35)           -16544
             Balance on current account (lines 1, 18, and 35 or     -5536
             lines 74, 75, and 76)/13/



      Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis


Monday, 27 February, 12
BOP: Capital & Financial Account



    ✤    Shows how a country’s assets and liabilities change over time

    ✤    Remember that the figures in the capital account represent changes
         (increases or decreases) in assets & liabilities, not the absolute
         amounts!




Monday, 27 February, 12
2008
                                                            Capital account
               Capital account transactions, net                                                                               953
                                                                 Financial account
               U.S.-owned assets abroad, excluding financial derivatives (increase/financial outflow (-))                      -106
                U.S. official reserve assets                                                                                  -4848
                 Gold/7/                                                                                                          0
                 Special drawing rights                                                                                        -106
                 Reserve position in the International Monetary Fund                                                          -3473
                 Foreign currencies                                                                                           -1269
                U.S. government assets, other than official reserve assets                                                  -529615
                 U.S. credits and other long-term assets                                                                      -2202
                 Repayments on U.S. credits and other long-term assets/8/                                                      2354
                 U.S. foreign currency holdings and U.S. short-term assets                                                  -529766
                U.S. private assets                                                                                          534357
                 Direct investment                                                                                          -332012
                 Foreign securities                                                                                           60761
                 U.S. claims on unaffiliated foreigners reported by U.S. nonbanking concerns                                 372229
                 U.S. claims reported by U.S. banks and securities brokers/14/                                               433379
               Foreign-owned assets in the United States, excluding financial derivatives (increase/financial inflow (+))    534071
                Foreign official assets in the United States                                                                 487021
                 U.S. government securities                                                                                  543498
                  U.S. Treasury securities/9/                                                                                477652
                  Other/10/                                                                                                   65846
                 Other U.S. government liabilities/11/                                                                         8626
                 U.S. liabilities reported by U.S. banks and securities brokers                                             -153443
                 Other foreign official assets/12/                                                                            88340
                Other foreign assets in the United States                                                                     47050
                 Direct investment                                                                                           319737
                 U.S. Treasury securities                                                                                    196619
                 U.S. securities other than U.S. Treasury securities                                                        -126737
                 U.S. currency                                                                                                29187
                 U.S. liabilities to unaffiliated foreigners reported by U.S. nonbanking concerns                            -45167
                 U.S. liabilities reported by U.S. banks and securities brokers/15/                                         -326589
               Financial derivatives, net                                                                                    -28905
               Statistical discrepancy (sum of above items with sign reversed)                                               200055




Monday, 27 February, 12
Monday, 27 February, 12

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Class6

  • 1. Economics for Journalists Week 6: Trade Jeffrey Timmermans Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 2. Absolute advantage “The producer that requires a smaller quantity of inputs to produce a good is said to have an absolute advantage in producing that good.” – N. Gregory Mankiw, Principles of Economics Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 3. Comparative advantage “The producer who gives up less of other goods to produce [a particular good] has the smaller opportunity cost of producing [that particular good] and is said to have a comparative advantage in producing it.” – N. Gregory Mankiw, Principles of Economics Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 4. What do these countries have in common? ✤ China ✤ India ✤ Morocco ✤ Turkey ✤ Sri Lanka ✤ Bangladesh ✤ Colombia ✤ Cambodia ✤ Lesotho ✤ Mexico Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 5. And the answer is.... ✤ All ten countries supply clothing to U.S. discount clothing retailer Old Navy ✤ Old Navy sources its products from around 50 countries Photo: Boone NC Magazine ✤ Men’s T-shirt for US$3.99 ✤ Old Navy sold US$1.62 billion in merchandise in 4Q 2011 Sources: Gap Inc. 10-Q filing, Old Navy Web site Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 6. Volume of monthly exports, 1998-2009 Source: WTO secretariat Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 7. Effects of trade on an exporting country Domestic Price of Supply Textiles Price before Trade Domestic Demand Quantity of Textiles Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 8. Effects of trade on an exporting country Domestic Price of Supply Textiles Consumer Surplus Price before Trade Domestic Demand Quantity of Textiles Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 9. Effects of trade on an exporting country Domestic Price of Supply Textiles Price before Trade Domestic Demand Quantity of Textiles Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 10. Effects of trade on an exporting country Domestic Price of Supply Textiles Exports Price after Trade Price before Trade { World Price Domestic Demand Quantity of Textiles Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 11. Effects of trade on an exporting country Domestic Price of Supply Textiles Exports Price after Trade Price before Trade { World Price Domestic Demand Quantity of Textiles Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 12. Effects of trade on an importing country Domestic Price of Supply Textiles Price before Trade Domestic Demand Quantity of Textiles Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 13. Effects of trade on an importing country Domestic Price of Supply Textiles Consumer Surplus Price before Trade Domestic Demand Quantity of Textiles Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 14. Effects of trade on an importing country Domestic Price of Supply Textiles Price before Trade Domestic Demand Quantity of Textiles Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 15. Effects of trade on an importing country Domestic Price of Supply Textiles Price before Trade World Price after Trade { Imports Price Domestic Demand Quantity of Textiles Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 16. Effects of trade on an importing country Domestic Price of Supply Textiles Consumer Surplus Price before Trade World Price after Trade { Imports Price Domestic Demand Quantity of Textiles Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 17. Free trade: winners ✤ Domestic consumers in importing countries ✤ Domestic producers in exporting countries Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 18. Free trade: losers ✤ Domestic consumers in exporting countries ✤ Domestic producers in importing countries Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 19. Other benefits of trade ✤ Overall economic well-being increases ✤ But not for everyone ✤ Variety of available goods increases ✤ Increased competition ✤ Enhanced flow of ideas Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 20. Arguments against trade ✤ Eliminates jobs ✤ Endangers national security ✤ Harms developing industries ✤ Unfair competition (dumping) Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 21. “Buy American” Source: CNN CNN’s Lou Dobbs on “Buy American” Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 22. Government trade policies ✤ Trade barriers ✤ Trade subsidies ✤ Free-trade agreements Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 23. Trade barriers: the obvious ones ✤ Tariffs ✤ Licenses ✤ Quotas ✤ Subsidies ✤ Content requirements ✤ Embargo Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 24. Trade subsidies ✤ The U.S. paid domestic farmers $245.2 billion in subsidies from 1995-2009, including $15.4 billion in 2009 ✤ 10% of farmers received 74% of subsidies ✤ Corn subsidies totaled $73.8 billion (1995-2009) ✤ The E.U.’s Common Agricultural Policy costs €55 billion per year, or around 40% of the total E.U. budget Sources: Environmental Working Group, European Union Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 25. Trade barriers: the less obvious ✤ “Quality” requirements ✤ Health concerns ✤ Packaging ✤ Labeling ✤ Other product standards ✤ Dense bureaucracy Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 26. Effects of a tariff Domestic Price of Supply Textiles Consumer Price without Surplus Trade World Price } Producer Surplus Domestic Imports Demand Quantity of Textiles Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 27. Effects of a tariff Domestic Price of Supply Textiles Price without Trade World Price Domestic Demand Quantity of Textiles Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 28. Effects of a tariff Domestic Price of Supply Textiles Price without Trade Price after Tariff { Imports Tariff World Price Domestic Demand Quantity of Textiles Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 29. Effects of a tariff Domestic Price of Supply Textiles Consumer Surplus Price without Trade Price after Tariff { Imports Tariff World Price Domestic Demand Quantity of Textiles Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 30. Effects of a tariff Domestic Price of Supply Textiles Consumer Surplus Price without Trade Price after Tariff { Imports Tariff World Price Domestic Demand Producer Quantity of Surplus Textiles Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 31. Trade: a zero-sum game ✤ One country’s trade surplus is another country’s trade deficit ✤ If China exports a T-shirt to the U.S., the value of that T-shirt is counted as a credit (addition) to China’s trade balance and as a debit (subtraction) to the U.S. trade balance Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 32. Balance of Payments ✤ While GDP reports a country’s output of goods & services, a Balance of Payments (BOP) statement records a country’s cross-border transactions, both current account transactions and capital transactions ✤ The two sides of a BOP statement must always balance ✤ A deficit in the current account must be matched by an equivalent surplus in the capital account ✤ In other words, a country that runs a $1 billion current account deficit must finance it by attracting $1 billion in capital Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 33. Structure of a BOP statement ✤ Current Account ✤ Balance on trade in goods (Exports - Imports) ✤ Balance on trade in services ✤ Net income & net unilateral transfers ✤ Capital & Financial Account ✤ Errors & Omissions Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 34. BOP: Current Account ✤ Debits (subtractions) ✤ Credits (additions) ✤ Imports ✤ Exports ✤ Income payments ✤ Income receipts ✤ Increase in reserves ✤ Decrease in reserves ✤ All are uses of foreign ✤ All are sources of foreign exchange exchange Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 35. Bureau of Economic Analysis U.S. International Transactions Accounts Data Table Creation Date: December 15, 2009 Release Date: December 16, 2009 Table 1. U.S. International Transactions [Millions of dollars] (Credits +; debits -)/1/ 2008 2008 Current account Exports of goods and services and income receipts 2591233 Imports of goods and services and income payments -3168938 Exports of goods and services 1826596 Imports of goods and services -2522532 Goods, balance of payments basis/2/ 1276994 Goods, balance of payments basis/2/ -2117245 Services/3/ 549602 Services/3/ -405287 Transfers under U.S. military agency sales contracts/4/ 22571 Direct defense expenditures -36452 Travel 110090 Travel -79743 Passenger fares 31623 Passenger fares -32597 Other transportation 58945 Other transportation -72143 Royalties and license fees/5/ 91599 Royalties and license fees/5/ -26616 Other private services/5/ 233529 Other private services/5/ -153267 U.S. government miscellaneous services 1245 U.S. government miscellaneous services -4469 Income receipts 764637 Income payments -646406 Income receipts on U.S.-owned assets abroad 761593 Income payments on foreign-owned assets in the United States -636043 Direct investment receipts 370747 Direct investment payments -120862 Other private receipts 385940 Other private payments -349871 U.S. government receipts 4906 U.S. government payments -165310 Compensation of employees 3044 Compensation of employees -10364 Unilateral current transfers, net -128363 U.S. government grants/4/ -36003 U.S. government pensions and other transfers -8390 Private remittances and other transfers/6/ -83970 Memoranda: Balance on goods (lines 3 and 20) -36485 Balance on services (lines 4 and 21) 12329 Balance on goods and services (lines 2 and 19) -24156 Balance on income (lines 12 and 29) 35164 Unilateral current transfers, net (line 35) -16544 Balance on current account (lines 1, 18, and 35 or -5536 lines 74, 75, and 76)/13/ Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 36. BOP: Capital & Financial Account ✤ Shows how a country’s assets and liabilities change over time ✤ Remember that the figures in the capital account represent changes (increases or decreases) in assets & liabilities, not the absolute amounts! Monday, 27 February, 12
  • 37. 2008 Capital account Capital account transactions, net 953 Financial account U.S.-owned assets abroad, excluding financial derivatives (increase/financial outflow (-)) -106 U.S. official reserve assets -4848 Gold/7/ 0 Special drawing rights -106 Reserve position in the International Monetary Fund -3473 Foreign currencies -1269 U.S. government assets, other than official reserve assets -529615 U.S. credits and other long-term assets -2202 Repayments on U.S. credits and other long-term assets/8/ 2354 U.S. foreign currency holdings and U.S. short-term assets -529766 U.S. private assets 534357 Direct investment -332012 Foreign securities 60761 U.S. claims on unaffiliated foreigners reported by U.S. nonbanking concerns 372229 U.S. claims reported by U.S. banks and securities brokers/14/ 433379 Foreign-owned assets in the United States, excluding financial derivatives (increase/financial inflow (+)) 534071 Foreign official assets in the United States 487021 U.S. government securities 543498 U.S. Treasury securities/9/ 477652 Other/10/ 65846 Other U.S. government liabilities/11/ 8626 U.S. liabilities reported by U.S. banks and securities brokers -153443 Other foreign official assets/12/ 88340 Other foreign assets in the United States 47050 Direct investment 319737 U.S. Treasury securities 196619 U.S. securities other than U.S. Treasury securities -126737 U.S. currency 29187 U.S. liabilities to unaffiliated foreigners reported by U.S. nonbanking concerns -45167 U.S. liabilities reported by U.S. banks and securities brokers/15/ -326589 Financial derivatives, net -28905 Statistical discrepancy (sum of above items with sign reversed) 200055 Monday, 27 February, 12