The document discusses the concept of third generation terrorism, which involves self-radicalized individuals carrying out attacks without direct connections to terrorist organizations like Al Qaeda. It analyzes the 2004 Madrid train bombings as an example of this type of grassroots terrorist incident. It argues that existing crisis analysis frameworks do not adequately address such incidents led by decentralized networks. A new framework is needed to better analyze and manage the consequences of third generation terrorism.

1. Third Generation Terrorism and Crisis Analysis Jeffrey A. Schneider 12/08/09

4. What is Third Generation Terrorism? Mustafa Setmarian (aka Abu Musab al-Suri) The International Islamic Resistance Call "[The Grassroots Jihadi Networks is a] third generation of mujahideen, a generation currently in the process of being defined, born after the September happenings, the occupation in Iraq, and the Palestinian Intifada." Jordan, Manas, Horsburgh "Strengths and Weaknesses of Grassroot Jihadist Networks: The Madrid Bombings" "Individuals that operate within the country they reside and share the strategic objectives of the Global Jihad Movement, but do not formally belong to the Al Qaeda Organization or other associated groups."

5. What is Third Generation Terrorism? Mustafa Setmarian (aka Abu Musab al-Suri) The International Islamic Resistance Call "[The Grassroots Jihadi Networks is a] third generation of mujahideen, a generation currently in the process of being defined, born after the September happenings, the occupation in Iraq, and the Palestinian Intifada." Jordan, Manas, Horsburgh "Strengths and Weaknesses of Grassroot Jihadist Networks: The Madrid Bombings" "Individuals that operate within the country they reside and share the strategic objectives of the Global Jihad Movement, but do not formally belong to the Al Qaeda Organization or other associated groups." Dr. Marc Sageman Leaderless Jihad "the jihadi-wannabes"

14. Iraqi Jihad: Hopes and Risks

16. Definition of a Crisis CRISIS Pre-Crisis Post-Crisis Prevention Identifying Sources of Conflict Identifying Causes of Conflict Deterrence Provide strategy and capabilities to deter conflict Diplomacy Link diplomacy and military capabilities Escalation Use of force Threat of use Sanctioning Signaling Statements of Intent De-Escalation 3rd parties, including international organizations Threats of Renewed Escalation Signals for de-escalation Formation of coalitions Peace Keeping Peace Enforcement Forward Presence Nation Building Economic Development Democratic Political Systems *TIME LINE IS FINITE* WAR Perception of need to respond 1. When one side threatens mil action against another 2. Takes direct military action 1. Threat to highly valued interests or values 2. Turning point between Peace and War 3. Engages key decision makers who are party to crisis 4. Situation when time is finite 5. Characterized by Surprise 6. International politics in microcosm The Snyder-Diesing Model

24. Threat Analysis -- identifies which missions demand imminent preparation (completed by a CFT under the DNI)

25. Threat Analysis -- identifies which missions demand imminent preparation (completed by a CFT under the DNI) Strategic Guidance Statement -- establishes the goals for planning ( completed by NSC)