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2013 Online Fraud Report
Online Payment Fraud Trends,
Merchant Practices, and Benchmarks
14TH
Annual edition
© 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved.2
2013 Online Fraud Report
To get a view customized for your company’s size and
industry, please contact CyberSource at 1.888.330.2300
or online at www.cybersource.com/contact_us.
For additional information, whitepapers and webinars, or
sales assistance:
‱	FraudManagementSolutions:http://www.cybersource.
com/products_and_services/fraud_management/
‱	Resource Center: http://www.cybersource.com/cgi-
bin/resource_center/resources.cgi
GetTailoredViewsofFraudManagement
PipelineMetrics
CyberSource, an industry leader in fraud management solutions,
enables businesses to continually improve profitability by detecting
fraud sooner and more accurately and by streamlining fraud
management operations. CyberSource provides a complete range
of solutions, including training, consultation, active management
of fraud screening, and outsourcing all or part of your fraud
management operations.
CyberSource sponsors these annual online surveys to support
the industry in preventing and managing online payment fraud
by sharing fraud management best practices and benchmarks.
© 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved. 3
2013 Online Fraud Report
Executive Summary	 4
Automated Screening 	 7
Manual Review 	 11
Order Dispositioning (Accept/Reject)	 14
Fraud Claim Management 	 18
Tuning and Analytics 	 22
Conclusion 	 25
Resources and Solutions	27
Table of contents
© 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved.4
2013 Online Fraud Report
Estimated $3.5 Billion Lost
to Online Fraud
In 2012, companies reported losing an average of 0.9% of
total online revenue to fraud, similar to 2010 levels. Using
2012 industry market projections on eCommerce sales in
North America1
, we estimate that total revenue loss translates
to approximately $3.5 billion. Because the size of the overall
market has grown, the revenue loss equates to $100,000,000
more versus 2011.
Although the fraud rate by revenue has gone down, the fraud
rate by order increased from 0.6% in 2011 to 0.8% in 2012.
The average ticket value for a fraudulent order was $200,
approximately 1/3 higher than a valid order ($149).
For the 54% of survey respondents that accept international
orders, the fraud rate for orders outside of North America was
twice as high – 1.6%. With international sales comprising 14%
of overall orders (and even more so for the largest companies),
fraud management mitigation strategies will need to be closely
monitored and scrutinized.
Challenges Managing
Growth Persist
2013 eCommerce sales are projected to grow at 12%2
, yet
some organizations may be unable to fully capitalize on these
opportunities. 77% of survey participants indicated that both
fraud staffing levels and budgets would remain the same or
lower. With eCommerce sales increasing, and 1 out of 4 orders
manually reviewed, companies will be challenged to screen
more orders with the same resources and budget.
1 Based on eMarketer projections, with a 13% uplift to account for industry segments covered by the survey but not by eMarketer’s market sizing.
2 eMarketer
Executive Summary
To better understand the
impact of payment fraud for
companies selling online,
CyberSource sponsors
annual surveys addressing
the detection, prevention
and management of online
payment fraud. This report
summarizes findings from
our 14th annual survey.*
*Note: this report provides benchmarks on total fraud rates (chargebacks and credits issued directly to consumers by companies). As such, these metrics tend to be higher than those
reported by banks and card schemes, which generally base reported rates on chargeback activity only.
© 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved. 5
2013 Online Fraud Report
3 eMarketer
Focus on Operational Efficiency
Of the orders manually reviewed, 75% are ultimately accepted,
and one could ask why the orders were sent to review to begin
with. Two factors may be at work. First, automated fraud
screening strategies may need fine-tuning to screen more
orders. Second, some companies send even slightly suspicious
orders to review for further scrutiny, fearing customer insult if
the order was rejected outright.
However, for the 60% of respondents that track fraud rate after
manual review, the fraud rate by order was 4%, 5 times higher
than the average. The high post-review order acceptance rate
could be driven by company policy around customer experience
or not having more confidence in their analysis to reject the
order. Regardless, a closer look at the factors driving high post-
review order acceptance is warranted.
On the Radar: Mobile
In 2012, mobile commerce sales were estimated to be $24.7
billion, an increase of 82% over 20113
. However, mobile
commerce is the least likely channel to be evaluated for
payment fraud, in comparison to MOTO or eCommerce. The
good news is that nearly 30% of respondents track mobile
commerce fraud, which is a marked improvement over 2011
(8%), and highlights increasing awareness and the growing
importance of mobile commerce.
T
the mobile
channel shows the highest revenue fraud loss rate, at 1.4%. As
mobile sales continue to rise rapidly, companies will need to
adjust their fraud management strategies accordingly.
Full Process View
How can organizations achieve and sustain an acceptable
fraud level while maintaining a positive customer experience
and keeping overhead costs in line? How can organizations
achieve this balance, especially in the face of ever-changing
fraud threats?
To address this, a full view of the fraud management process
is required. Using the framework outlined in the graphic on
page 6, companies can assess their performance in key areas
of their fraud screening operations: automated screening (data,
detectors,riskmodels,rules),manualreview,orderdispositioning
(accept/reject decisions), and fraud claim management. Once
a performance baseline has been established, companies can
then analyze and tune their operations to optimize outcomes.
This report details key metrics and practices at each point in
the process to provide you with benchmarks and best practice
insights. Custom views of these benchmarks and practices are
available through CyberSource – see front page for contact
information.
© 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved.6
2013 Online Fraud Report
73%
PROFIT LEAKS
STAFFING & SCALABILITY
52%
ON AVERAGE 1 OUT OF
4 ORDERS ARE
REVIEWED
MERCHANTS
REVIEW
ORDERS
OF FRAUD MANAGEMENT
BUDGET IS SPENT ON
REVIEW STAFF COSTS
$3.5B
PROFIT LEAKS
FRAUD LOSS & ADMINISTRATION
0.8%0.9%ESTIMATED
LOSTTOONLINE
PAYMENTFRAUD AVERAGE FRAUD
RATE BY REVENUE
AVERAGE FRAUD
RATE BY ORDER
FROM
CHARGE-
BACKS
FROM
CREDITS
ISSUED
43% 57%
DATA,
DETECTORS
AND RISK
MODELS
RISK
STRATEGY
FRAUD CLAIM
MANAGEMENT
ACCEPT
/ REJECT
ORDER
2.9%
PROFIT LEAKS
LOST SALES
7.5%
AVERAGE REJECT
RATE FOR US /
CANADIAN ORDERS
AVERAGE REJECT
RATE FOR NON-NORTH
AMERICAN ORDERS
69%
NO PLANS TO
CHANGE STAFFING
LEVELS IN 2013
AUTOMATED
SCREENING01
PROFIT L
LOST S
AVERAGE REJ
RATE FOR US
CANADIAN ORCANADIAN OR
AVERAGE REJ
RATE FOR NO
AMERICAN O
TUNING AND
ANALYTICS
TUN
MANUAL
REVIEW
© 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved. 7
2013 Online Fraud Report
Ideally, automated order screening should leverage the
organization’s own data, third-party fraud prevention tools
(such as IP geolocation, device fingerprinting, fraud-scoring
calculation models, multi-merchant data, velocity checks, and
more), as well as a variety of services made available by the
various card schemes (i.e., Card Verification Value 2, Verified
by Visa, etc.). In 2012, organizations reported using an average
of 4.9 tools overall, the same as in 2011.
The chart on page 8 highlights the fraud tools that were deemed
most effective by organizations, looking at both automated and
manual screening. Similar to 2011, company-specific fraud
scoring models and device fingerprinting continue to be cited
as one of the top three most effective tools.
Automated
Screening
In this stage, orders typically go through
an automated screening process, in
which a rules-based system and/or risk
evaluation is applied to determine the
likelihood of fraud. The objective is
to have the automated system handle
most of the decisions, leaving only the
most suspicious orders for the review
team to investigate. This provides for
faster, more accurate and efficient
screening of orders.
FRAUD CLAIM
MANAGEMENT
02
LAIM
03
01
ACCEPT
/ REJECT
AUTOMATED
SCREENING
TUNING AND
ANALYTICS
MANUAL
REVIEW
TUN
04
© 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved.8
2013 Online Fraud Report
YourProprietaryData/CustomerHistory(Net)
Fraudscoringmodel-companyspecific
Customerorderhistory
Ordervelocitymonitoring
Negativelists(in-houselists)
Customerwebsitebehavior
Positivelists
PurchaseDeviceTracing(Net)
Devicefingerprintresults
Device“fingerprinting”
IPgeolocationinformation
Multi-MerchantData/PurchaseHistory(Net)
Multi-merchantpurchasevelocity
Sharednegativelists-sharedhotlists
ValidationServices(Net)
Paid-forpublicrecordsservices
Contactcustomertoverifyorder
CardVerificationNumber(CVN)
PayerAuthentication(3DSecure)
AddressVerificationServices(AVS)
Socialnetworkingsites
Two-factorphoneauthentication
Contactcardissuer/AmexCVP
Telephonenumberverification/reverselookup
Postaladdressvalidationservices
Other*
54%
50%
35%
24%
32%
31%
29%
29%
27%
18%
17%
15%
9%
9%
48%
16%
0%
34%
28%
20%
10%
5%
Most Effective Fraud Management Tools
Tool selected as one of “Top Three” most effective fraud tools by 25%+ of those using it
*Other – No respondents selected out-of-wallet/in-wallet challenge, credit history check, biometric indicators and Google Maps as top three most effective tools.
Base: Merchants with annual eCommerce sales ≄$25M who use tool: automated or manual (excludes None / No Answer).
© 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved. 9
2013 Online Fraud Report
Spotlight on Mobile
With smartphones and tablets now outpacing PC/laptop sales4
,
40% of respondents state that they have mobile commerce
sales (in comparison to 33% in 2011, an increase of 20%). As a
result of significantly more mobile devices, more companies are
beginning to track payment fraud in mobile commerce – 28%, in
comparison to 8% reported in 2011.
The mobile channel poses tremendous opportunity for
companies, but also poses some risk, as typical validation tools
available through the web are not as effective for mobile. On
the other hand, mobile phones provide rich data to companies
to validate the consumer, especially through a mobile app.
MobileTelephone/
Mailorder
Total
eCommerce
Of those tracking fraud, average % of annual revenue lost to payment fraud
FraudRatebyRevenue,perSalesChannel
72%
1.4%
0.4%
0.9%
54%39%
28%46%61%
Total eCommerce Telephone / Mail order Mobile
4 http://mashable.com/2012/02/03/smartphone-sales-overtake-pcs/
Tracks payment fraudDoes not track/ Don’t know / No answer
© 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved.10
2013 Online Fraud Report
Closely monitor and track behavior from
transactions that come from mobile
devices and cross-check against other
historical data. If a customer uses an
app to purchase, you can potentially
obtain additional information to use in
your screening rules.
Utilize and create rules around device
ïŹngerprinting, proxy piercing and VPN
detection. For example, with iOS,
Android, and Windows 8 devices,
fraudsters can bypass the pre-installed
browser and use one that they’ve
downloaded instead, enabling them to
create proxy sites that mask their actual
location. Similarly, free VPN solutions
enable fraudsters to select an originating
IP address. As VPN solutions are often
customized, traditional detection routines
do not work as efïŹciently.
Factor the presence of malware and
other unauthorized software running on
the mobile device into your fraud
screening strategies. Mobile malware,
like PC malware, can steal account
credentials, take over sessions, perform
injection attacks and corrupt browsers
and apps engaged in logins and
transactions.
If you have a dedicated mobile app,
promote its use to your customers.
Apps can provide much better
separation on the device (sandboxing)
and stronger OS-level protection.
Mobile fraud MitiGation strateGies
Source: aarij Khan, Senior director Product MarKeting, threatMetrix
© 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved. 11
2013 Online Fraud Report
After an evaluation by an automated
screening process, orders with more
ambiguous transaction characteristics
will be sent to manual review for a
deeper level of investigation. In this
process, an individual or team of
reviewers will use additional data
verification sources accompanied by
their judgment (developed through
experience) to render a decision.
For maximum efficiency, in addition
to consolidating various external
verification sources into one, compact
user interface, the review team should
have access to a case management
system to optimally distribute or
allocate orders in queue(s).
Manual Review
FRAUD CLAIM
MANAGEMENT
02
LAIM
03
01
ACCEPT
/ REJECT
AUTOMATED
SCREENING
TUNING AND
ANALYTICS
MANUAL
REVIEW
TUN
04
Manual Review Trends
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
69%
32%
72%
28%
72%
75% 73%
25%27%
24%
% Orders Reviewed by Merchants Practicing Review
% Merchants Performing Manual Order Review
# Minutes to Research
and Accept/Reject
Suspicious Orders
Overall <$5M $5-<$25M $25-<$100M $100M+
5
15
6
4 5
(Overall and by Merchant Size)
Annual eCommerce Revenue
20%
%who
take20+
minutes
41% 17% 10% 6%
© 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved.12
2013 Online Fraud Report
% of Manually Accepted
ORders that Turned Out
to be Fraudulent - 2012
% of respondents that
track fraud for manually
reviewed orders
60% 4%
40%
Track fraud rateDo not track
Base: Merchants with annual eCommerce sales ≄$25M practicing manual review
(excludes Don’t know/ No answer)
Base: Merchants practicing manual review (excludes Don’t know/ No answer)
© 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved. 13
2013 Online Fraud Report
Because review teams typically account for the largest
cost in an organization’s fraud management budget,
monitoring and optimizing review team performance
is critical. Consider how the team is performing in the
context of your operational goals and helping to meet
your company’s overall financial objectives.
1.	Balance effectiveness with efficiency by measuring
key performancemetricsbyreviewerandreviewteam:
‱	Chargebacksintotal,asapercentageofthenumberof
orders and total transaction revenue
‱	Average and aggregate review times to disposition
orders
‱	Number of transactions reviewed
‱	(if possible) Number of inadvertent customer insults
(false positives)			
2.	Measure these overall fraud management KPIs over a
specific period of time to determine trends and areas
of concern and areas of improvement. Establish a
baseline for comparison, using your historical data
and/or industry benchmarks (such as those provided
by CyberSource – see sample charts on the right).
Optimizing Manual Review Success:
Measure, refine, measure, refine
.
Carl Tucker, Principal, CyberSource
Global Services
PeerGroupBenchmark
Fraud Rate %
October 2011-September 2012
PeerGroupBenchmark
PeerGroupBenchmark
Manual Review Rate %
October 2011-September 2012
© 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved.14
2013 Online Fraud Report
Order Dispositioning
(Accept/Reject)
The ultimate outcome of an automated
and manual review process is the
decision to either Accept or Reject an
order. As a general rule of thumb, an
equivalent number of orders should be
accepted as rejected. Excessively high
or low post-manual review acceptance
rates after manual review can indicate
that more orders than necessary are
being diverted to manual review, which
increases overhead costs and delays
in fulfilling customer orders. This
skewing of manual Accept-Reject rates
can typically be resolved by tuning
the automated fraud detection system
earlier in the process to bring the
manual review rates into better balance.
FRAUD CLAIM
MANAGEMENT
02
LAIM
03
0011
ACCEPT
/ REJECT
AUTOMATED
SCREENING
TUNING AND
ANALYTICS
MANUAL
REVIEW
TUN
04
© 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved. 15
2013 Online Fraud Report
Overall <$5M $5M-<$25M $25M-<$100M $100M+
Average % Orders Rejected Due to Suspicion of Fraud
(Overall and by Merchant Size)
2.8% 2.8%
2.7%
3.9%
3.7%
2.3%
2.5%
6.3%
2.2%
2.9%
Annual eCommerce Revenue
Base: Merchants accepting orders from U.S./Canada (excludes Don’t know / No answer) 20122011
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Order Rejection Rates, Domestic vs. International
2.9%
2.4%
2.7%
2.8%
7.3%
2.9%
7.5%
7.6%
7.7%
10.9%
% of International Orders Rejected% U.S./Canada Orders Rejected due to Suspicion of Fraud
© 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved.16
2013 Online Fraud Report
Overall <$5M $5M-<$25M $25M-<$100M $100M+
Post-Review Order Acceptance Rate
(Overall and by Merchant Size) - 2012
75%
71%
65%
82%
18%
81%
19%
35%
29%
25%
Annual eCommerce Revenue
Base: Merchants practicing manual review (excludes None / No answer) RejectedAccepted
© 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved. 17
2013 Online Fraud Report
DIMENSIONALITY
SPECIFICITY
CORNERING THE“LAYERED”
SETOFDETECTORS
IDENTIFY
ANDACCEPT
GOODORDERS,
ANDKEEP
FRAUDSTERS
OUT.
ASK FOR RELIABLE
INFORMATION
CREATE A
SAFETY NET
ADD DIMENSIONS
OF RELATED DATA
Creating Layers to Defend Against Fraud
Scott Boding, Business Leader in Risk Solutions, CyberSource
The goal of any fraud management strategy is to accurately
identify and accept good orders, while keeping fraudsters out.
We advocate a multi-factored approach or using a “layered”
set of detectors in concert, including techniques shown here.
Once you have the key piece of reliable
information, add “dimensions” of
other, related data that you have on the
order (e.g., device fingerprint, account
number, email, etc.), then build rules
using these dimensions in combination.
For example, create rules with shipping
address + velocity intervals AND
shipping address + account number(s).
It makes it more difficult to perpetrate
fraud systematically.
In the absence of reliable or available
data, use “generic” information to
create a safety net and assess risk
based on the level of information you
have. For instance, if shipping address
information is not available, create
rules around risk levels associated with
the zip code or country of the shipping
address.
Force the fraudster to surrender a key
piece of reliable information using
hard rules (e.g., disable shipping
redirect and require that the shipping
address is deliverable).
© 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved.18
2013 Online Fraud Report
Fraud Claim
Management
FRAUD CLAIM
MANAGEMENT
02
LAIM
03
0011
ACCEPT
/ REJECT
AUTOMATED
SCREENING
TUNING AND
ANALYTICS
MANUAL
REVIEW
TUN
04
We define fraud as chargebacks and
credits issued by the merchant due to
likelihood of fraud. As a result, actual
fraud rates reported tend to be higher
than those cited by banks or card
schemes. When monitoring the level
and trend of fraud loss, we focus on
fraud rate by revenue (also known as
the revenue fraud loss rate), fraud rate
by order (fraudulent order rate), and
the average value of a fraudulent order
relative to a valid order. In 2012, the
average ticket value for a fraudulent
order was 35% higher than a valid order
($200 versus $149, respectively).
%onlineOrdersLost
201220112010200920082007200520042003
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
AverageFraudRatebyOrder
0.8%
0.6%
0.9%0.9%
1.1%1.1%1.0%
1.3%1.3%
Average Fraud Rate by
Revenue
2012201120102009200820072006200520042003
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
%OnlineRevenueLost
1.7
1.8
1.6
1.4 1.4 1.4
1.2
0.9 0.9
1.0
Estimated Revenue Lost
Due to Online Fraud
2012201120102009200820072006200520042003
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
$4.0
$LossinBillions
1.9
2.6
2.8
3.1
3.7
4.0
3.3
2.7
3.53.4
© 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved. 19
2013 Online Fraud Report
Although the domestic fraudulent order rate has
increased to 0.8%, the international fraudulent order rate
has decreased to 1.6%. However, it’s still twice as high.
20122011201020092008
0.0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Fraud Rate by Order, Domestic vs. International
0.8%
1.6%
2.0%
0.6%
2.1%
0.9%0.9%
4.0%
2.0%
1.1%
*Base: Merchants accepting orders from U.S./Canada (excludesDon’tknow/Noanswer)
**Base: Merchants accepting international orders (excludes Don’t know / No answer)
Fraud Rate - by Order, Domestic* Fraud Rate - by Order, International**
© 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved.20
2013 Online Fraud Report
Although chargebacks are the most often cited metric,
companies report that chargebacks account for only 43%
of all fraud claims.
Overall <$5M $5M-<$25M $25M-<$100M $100M+
% of Fraud Claims:
Chargebacks vs. Credits Issued by Merchant
(Overall and by Merchant Size)
57%
69% 75%
63%
37%
42%
58%
25%
31%
43%
Annual eCommerce Revenue
Base: Merchants expecting domestic fraud (excludes Don’t know) ChargebacksCredits Issued
© 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved. 21
2013 Online Fraud Report
Overall <$5M $5M-<$25M $25M-<$100M $100M+
Fraud Chargeback Re-presentment: Win Rate/Net
Recovery Rate
(Overall and by Merchant Size)
53%
48%
61%
39%
22%
59%
28%29%
26%26%
Annual eCommerce Revenue
1Net Recovery is calculated as Win Rate x Re-presentment Rate (computed individually for
respondents who answered both questions, then averaged)
% Net Recovery1% Challenged
48%
Average
Win Rate41%
Average
Win Rate
43%
Average
Win Rate
44%
Average
Win Rate
43%
Average
Win Rate
5 http://usa.visa.com/download/merchants/compelling-evidence-dispute-resolution.pdf
In April 2013, Visa will institute changes in chargeback
rules to streamline the dispute resolution process overall
(effective globally, excluding Visa Europe). Below is a quick
review of what’s ahead (effective on or after April 20, 2013):
1.	CompellingEvidenceReasonCodes.Merchantswillhave
additional representment rights to provide compelling
evidence for chargeback Reason Codes 30 (Services
Not Provided or Merchandise Not Received), 53 (Not as
Described or Defective Merchandise), 81 (Fraud – Card-
Present Environment), and 83 (Fraud – Card-Absent
Environment). These are only new representment rights
to provide compelling evidence and not a remedy for the
chargeback.
2.	Issuers Must Address Compelling Evidence. If compelling
evidenceisprovidedbytheacquirerwiththerepresentment,
issuers must attempt to contact their cardholder with this
new information.
3.	Pre-Arbitration Requirement for Issuers. If the issuer
refutes the compelling evidence provided with the
representment by the acquirer, the issuer must initiate
a pre-arbitration case prior to filing arbitration with Visa.
A table outlining Allowable Compelling Evidence by Reason
Code is available for reference (see footnoted URL). For more
information on these changes, please contact your acquiring
bank, processor or Visa representative.
Updates to Visa Inc.’s Chargeback and Dispute Resolution Process5
© 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved.22
2013 Online Fraud Report
Tuning and Analytics
FRAUD CLAIM
MANAGEMENT
02
LAIM
03
0011
ACCEPT
/ REJECT
AUTOMATED
SCREENING
TUNING AND
ANALYTICS
MANUAL
REVIEW
TUN
044
For most companies, budgets and
resources remain unchanged in 2013.
Similar to last year, the order review staff
comprises over half of an organization’s
budget for fraud management.
*Median used
Expected Budget Change
for Fraud Management
2013
23%
Increase
4%
decrease
73%
No
Change
Average* % Fraud
Management
Budget Expected
to INCREASE
10%
Average* % Fraud
Management
Budget Expected
to DECREASE
25%
© 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved. 23
2013 Online Fraud Report
PlannedStaffingLevelsforFuture
Base: Total Merchants (excludes No answer)
Base:MerchantswhomanuallyreviewtoscreenforeCommercefraud(ExcludingDon’tknow/Noanswer)
Average % Spending
Allocation for Fraud
Management 2013
52%
Order
Review
Staff29%
3rd
Party
Tools
19%
Internal
Tools&
Systems
8%
Decrease
69%
Same
23%
Increase
Perceived Fraud Threats
In 2012, the Merchant Risk Council (MRC) partnered with
CyberSource to survey its members on the top fraud attacks6
that were most impactful to them, by frequency of attack and
revenue loss. In ranked order, the top nine fraud attacks were:
1.	Clean Fraud
2.	Account Takeover
3.	Friendly Fraud
4.	Identity Theft
5.	Affiliate Fraud
6.	Re-shipping
7.	Botnets
8.	Phishing/Pharming/Whaling
9.	Triangulation Schemes
Respondents to this year’s CyberSource Online Fraud Survey
shed some light into the top three. Nearly 60% say that friendly
fraud7
hasincreasedoverthelasttwoyears,andoverhalfsaythat
the impact of account takeover is significant on their business.
Yet on the positive side, nearly 2/3 say that fraud detection is
either the same or easier in comparison to 12 months ago.
6 To listen to a recorded webinar of this research, go to www.cybersource.com/
top9fraudtrends
7 Defined as the actual cardholder or someone known to the cardholder (such as a
family member) making a legitimate purchase and then subsequently disputing the
charge (charging back), claiming never to have purchased or received the goods.
© 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved.24
2013 Online Fraud Report
Base: Merchants with annual eCommerce
revenue $25M+ (excludes Don’t know)
Perception of Friendly
Fraud Over the Last 2
Years
35%
No
change
59%
Increased
6%
Decreased
Base: Merchants with annual eCommerce
revenue $25M+ (excludes Don’t know / those without registered account users)
51%
Significant
7%
Neither
42%
Insignificant
13%
of those
find it ‘very
significant’
Significance of account
takeover on business
Base: Merchants with annual eCommerce revenue
$25M+ (excludes Don’t know / No answer)
62%
yes
38%
no
same tools USED for
account takeover and
order screening
Base: Total Merchants (excludes Don’t know)
Ease of fraud detection
compared to 12
months ago
34%
More
Difficult
46%
Same
19%
Easier
© 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved. 25
2013 Online Fraud Report
To provide an overall assessment and basis for comparison, we
took a snapshot of average survey respondent performance across
four key performance indicators (KPIs): manual review rate, order
rejection rate, fraud rate by order, and fraud rate by revenue,
highlighting KPIs by industry and organizational size. KPIs
will vary, as each company is unique in terms of their business
objectives, resources, expertise, fraud tolerance and risk.
Companies constantly weigh the tradeoffs among fraud loss,
customer experience, and cost, in tuning their operations to
protect against the latest fraud attacks. Though it is unlikely
that fraud can ever be eliminated completely, organizations can
effectively manage fraud with the right systems, people, and
processes in place.
KPIs by Merchant Size
42%
6.3%
1.5%
25%
2.0%
16%
11%
3.7%
2.5%
0.9%
0.6%
Average
1.3%
0.5%
2.2%
0.7%
0.7%
Order Reject Rate (avg = 2.9%) Fraud Rate - by Revenue (avg = 0.9%)
Fraud Rate - by Order (avg = 0.8%)Manual Review Rate (avg = 25%)
<$5M $5M-<$25M $25M-<$100M $100M+
CONCLUSION
© 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved.26
2013 Online Fraud Report
KPIs by Select Industries
21%
2.6%
0.4%
26%
0.6%
20%
32%3.6%
1.4%
0.9%
0.5%
Average
0.9% 0.9%
3.5%
1.0%
0.9%
Order Reject Rate (avg = 2.9%) Fraud Rate - by Revenue (avg = 0.9%)
Fraud Rate - by Order (avg = 0.8%)Manual Review Rate (avg = 25%)
DigitalGoods
&Services
Merchandise/
HouseholdProducts
Physicalgoods AllServices
© 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved. 27
2013 Online Fraud Report
Resources & Solutions
Report & Survey Methodology
This survey was conducted via online questionnaire by
Mindwave Research. Participating organizations completed
the survey September 12 – October 12, 2012. All participants
were either responsible for or influenced decisions regarding
risk management in their companies. 13% of the survey
participants use CyberSource fraud management solutions.
This report is based on a survey of U.S. and Canadian online
merchants. Decision makers who participated in this survey
represent a blend of small, medium and large-sized organizations
based in North America. Experience levels range from companies
in their first year of online transactions to some of the largest
retailers and digital distribution entities in the world. Companies
participating in the survey reported a total estimate of more than
$105 billion for their 2012 online sales.
To find information on CyberSource’s industry-leading fraud
managementsolutions,self-pacedwebinars,andotherwhitepapers
on payment management, visit www.cybersource.com.
CyberSource Fraud Management	
Solutions
CyberSource, an industry leader in fraud management solutions,
enables businesses to continually improve profitability by detecting
fraud sooner and more accurately and by streamlining fraud
management operations. CyberSource provides a complete range
of solutions, including training, consultation, active management
of fraud screening, and outsourcing all or part of your fraud
management operations.
Decision Manager, our hosted fraud management system,
serves as the foundation for CyberSource Fraud Management
Solutions. Featuring the world’s largest fraud detection
radar, Decision Manager provides access to a full range of
data generated from global fraud detectors, multi-merchant
and cross-industry correlations, truth data and more, across
sales channels and geographies. It features a highly flexible
rules engine backed by powerful statistical risk models, a
customizable case management system, and detailed reporting
and analytics.
Our fraud solutions are led by analysts with deep fraud
management experience in your industry. With a global staff on six
continents, our analysts are able to detect the latest fraud trends
quickly to ensure your fraud losses are minimized while keeping
your operations running efficiently. In addition, CyberSource has a
multi-lingual review team of experts providing your business with
24/7 risk screening capability. All of our fraud experts maintain
rigorous ongoing training and performance monitoring to ensure
consistently high quality results are achieved.
Chargeback Management Service– ENHANCED!	
CyberSource chargeback experts perform detailed analysis of
your chargebacks and provide best practice advice for your
fraud operations to prevent future chargebacks. We manage
the entire chargeback recovery process – receipt and review,
interaction with banks, and re-presentment documentation--
to ensure that you maximize profitability with the least impact
to your operations.
Online Fraud Survey Wave
Total number of companies
participating
Annual Online Revenue
Less than $5M
$5M to less than $25M
$25M or more
Duration of Online Selling
Less than 1 year
1 – 2 years
3 – 4 years
5 or more years
Risk Responsibility
Ultimately responsible
Influence decision
2008
400
53%
18%
29%
11%
12%
13%
64%
58%
42%
2009
352
55%
14%
31%
5%
16%
14%
65%
54%
46%
2010
334
54%
14%
32%
6%
11%
19%
64%
55%
45%
2011
325
56%
15%
29%
5%
12%
15%
68%
50%
50%
2012
312
46%
16%
38%
4%
7%
18%
71%
47%
53%
Summary of Participant Profiles
About CyberSource
CyberSource Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary
of Visa Inc., is a payment management company.
More than 400,000 businesses worldwide use
CyberSource and Authorize.Net brand solutions
to process online payments, streamline fraud
management and simplify payment security. The
company is headquartered in Foster City, California,
and maintains offices throughout the world, with
regional headquarters in Singapore, Tokyo, Miami,
Sao Paulo and Reading, U.K. CyberSource operates
in Europe under agreement with Visa Europe. For
more information, please visit www.cybersource.com.
North America
CyberSource HQ
Phone: +1 888 330 2300
+1 650 432 7350
Email: sales@cybersource.com
Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)
CyberSource Ltda.
Phone: +1 305 328 1998
Email: lac@cybersource.com
Europe
CyberSource Ltd.
Phone: +44 (0) 118 990 7300
Email: uk@cybersource.com
Asia Pacific
CYBS Singapore Pte Ltd.
Email: ap_enquiries@cybersource.com
Japan
CyberSource KK
Phone: +81 (0) 3 3548 9873
Email: sales@cybersource.co.jp

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Cybersource 2013 Online Fraud Report

  • 1. 2013 Online Fraud Report Online Payment Fraud Trends, Merchant Practices, and Benchmarks 14TH Annual edition
  • 2. © 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved.2 2013 Online Fraud Report To get a view customized for your company’s size and industry, please contact CyberSource at 1.888.330.2300 or online at www.cybersource.com/contact_us. For additional information, whitepapers and webinars, or sales assistance: ‱ FraudManagementSolutions:http://www.cybersource. com/products_and_services/fraud_management/ ‱ Resource Center: http://www.cybersource.com/cgi- bin/resource_center/resources.cgi GetTailoredViewsofFraudManagement PipelineMetrics CyberSource, an industry leader in fraud management solutions, enables businesses to continually improve profitability by detecting fraud sooner and more accurately and by streamlining fraud management operations. CyberSource provides a complete range of solutions, including training, consultation, active management of fraud screening, and outsourcing all or part of your fraud management operations. CyberSource sponsors these annual online surveys to support the industry in preventing and managing online payment fraud by sharing fraud management best practices and benchmarks.
  • 3. © 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved. 3 2013 Online Fraud Report Executive Summary 4 Automated Screening 7 Manual Review 11 Order Dispositioning (Accept/Reject) 14 Fraud Claim Management 18 Tuning and Analytics 22 Conclusion 25 Resources and Solutions 27 Table of contents
  • 4. © 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved.4 2013 Online Fraud Report Estimated $3.5 Billion Lost to Online Fraud In 2012, companies reported losing an average of 0.9% of total online revenue to fraud, similar to 2010 levels. Using 2012 industry market projections on eCommerce sales in North America1 , we estimate that total revenue loss translates to approximately $3.5 billion. Because the size of the overall market has grown, the revenue loss equates to $100,000,000 more versus 2011. Although the fraud rate by revenue has gone down, the fraud rate by order increased from 0.6% in 2011 to 0.8% in 2012. The average ticket value for a fraudulent order was $200, approximately 1/3 higher than a valid order ($149). For the 54% of survey respondents that accept international orders, the fraud rate for orders outside of North America was twice as high – 1.6%. With international sales comprising 14% of overall orders (and even more so for the largest companies), fraud management mitigation strategies will need to be closely monitored and scrutinized. Challenges Managing Growth Persist 2013 eCommerce sales are projected to grow at 12%2 , yet some organizations may be unable to fully capitalize on these opportunities. 77% of survey participants indicated that both fraud staffing levels and budgets would remain the same or lower. With eCommerce sales increasing, and 1 out of 4 orders manually reviewed, companies will be challenged to screen more orders with the same resources and budget. 1 Based on eMarketer projections, with a 13% uplift to account for industry segments covered by the survey but not by eMarketer’s market sizing. 2 eMarketer Executive Summary To better understand the impact of payment fraud for companies selling online, CyberSource sponsors annual surveys addressing the detection, prevention and management of online payment fraud. This report summarizes findings from our 14th annual survey.* *Note: this report provides benchmarks on total fraud rates (chargebacks and credits issued directly to consumers by companies). As such, these metrics tend to be higher than those reported by banks and card schemes, which generally base reported rates on chargeback activity only.
  • 5. © 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved. 5 2013 Online Fraud Report 3 eMarketer Focus on Operational Efficiency Of the orders manually reviewed, 75% are ultimately accepted, and one could ask why the orders were sent to review to begin with. Two factors may be at work. First, automated fraud screening strategies may need fine-tuning to screen more orders. Second, some companies send even slightly suspicious orders to review for further scrutiny, fearing customer insult if the order was rejected outright. However, for the 60% of respondents that track fraud rate after manual review, the fraud rate by order was 4%, 5 times higher than the average. The high post-review order acceptance rate could be driven by company policy around customer experience or not having more confidence in their analysis to reject the order. Regardless, a closer look at the factors driving high post- review order acceptance is warranted. On the Radar: Mobile In 2012, mobile commerce sales were estimated to be $24.7 billion, an increase of 82% over 20113 . However, mobile commerce is the least likely channel to be evaluated for payment fraud, in comparison to MOTO or eCommerce. The good news is that nearly 30% of respondents track mobile commerce fraud, which is a marked improvement over 2011 (8%), and highlights increasing awareness and the growing importance of mobile commerce. T the mobile channel shows the highest revenue fraud loss rate, at 1.4%. As mobile sales continue to rise rapidly, companies will need to adjust their fraud management strategies accordingly. Full Process View How can organizations achieve and sustain an acceptable fraud level while maintaining a positive customer experience and keeping overhead costs in line? How can organizations achieve this balance, especially in the face of ever-changing fraud threats? To address this, a full view of the fraud management process is required. Using the framework outlined in the graphic on page 6, companies can assess their performance in key areas of their fraud screening operations: automated screening (data, detectors,riskmodels,rules),manualreview,orderdispositioning (accept/reject decisions), and fraud claim management. Once a performance baseline has been established, companies can then analyze and tune their operations to optimize outcomes. This report details key metrics and practices at each point in the process to provide you with benchmarks and best practice insights. Custom views of these benchmarks and practices are available through CyberSource – see front page for contact information.
  • 6. © 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved.6 2013 Online Fraud Report 73% PROFIT LEAKS STAFFING & SCALABILITY 52% ON AVERAGE 1 OUT OF 4 ORDERS ARE REVIEWED MERCHANTS REVIEW ORDERS OF FRAUD MANAGEMENT BUDGET IS SPENT ON REVIEW STAFF COSTS $3.5B PROFIT LEAKS FRAUD LOSS & ADMINISTRATION 0.8%0.9%ESTIMATED LOSTTOONLINE PAYMENTFRAUD AVERAGE FRAUD RATE BY REVENUE AVERAGE FRAUD RATE BY ORDER FROM CHARGE- BACKS FROM CREDITS ISSUED 43% 57% DATA, DETECTORS AND RISK MODELS RISK STRATEGY FRAUD CLAIM MANAGEMENT ACCEPT / REJECT ORDER 2.9% PROFIT LEAKS LOST SALES 7.5% AVERAGE REJECT RATE FOR US / CANADIAN ORDERS AVERAGE REJECT RATE FOR NON-NORTH AMERICAN ORDERS 69% NO PLANS TO CHANGE STAFFING LEVELS IN 2013 AUTOMATED SCREENING01 PROFIT L LOST S AVERAGE REJ RATE FOR US CANADIAN ORCANADIAN OR AVERAGE REJ RATE FOR NO AMERICAN O TUNING AND ANALYTICS TUN MANUAL REVIEW
  • 7. © 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved. 7 2013 Online Fraud Report Ideally, automated order screening should leverage the organization’s own data, third-party fraud prevention tools (such as IP geolocation, device fingerprinting, fraud-scoring calculation models, multi-merchant data, velocity checks, and more), as well as a variety of services made available by the various card schemes (i.e., Card Verification Value 2, Verified by Visa, etc.). In 2012, organizations reported using an average of 4.9 tools overall, the same as in 2011. The chart on page 8 highlights the fraud tools that were deemed most effective by organizations, looking at both automated and manual screening. Similar to 2011, company-specific fraud scoring models and device fingerprinting continue to be cited as one of the top three most effective tools. Automated Screening In this stage, orders typically go through an automated screening process, in which a rules-based system and/or risk evaluation is applied to determine the likelihood of fraud. The objective is to have the automated system handle most of the decisions, leaving only the most suspicious orders for the review team to investigate. This provides for faster, more accurate and efficient screening of orders. FRAUD CLAIM MANAGEMENT 02 LAIM 03 01 ACCEPT / REJECT AUTOMATED SCREENING TUNING AND ANALYTICS MANUAL REVIEW TUN 04
  • 8. © 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved.8 2013 Online Fraud Report YourProprietaryData/CustomerHistory(Net) Fraudscoringmodel-companyspecific Customerorderhistory Ordervelocitymonitoring Negativelists(in-houselists) Customerwebsitebehavior Positivelists PurchaseDeviceTracing(Net) Devicefingerprintresults Device“fingerprinting” IPgeolocationinformation Multi-MerchantData/PurchaseHistory(Net) Multi-merchantpurchasevelocity Sharednegativelists-sharedhotlists ValidationServices(Net) Paid-forpublicrecordsservices Contactcustomertoverifyorder CardVerificationNumber(CVN) PayerAuthentication(3DSecure) AddressVerificationServices(AVS) Socialnetworkingsites Two-factorphoneauthentication Contactcardissuer/AmexCVP Telephonenumberverification/reverselookup Postaladdressvalidationservices Other* 54% 50% 35% 24% 32% 31% 29% 29% 27% 18% 17% 15% 9% 9% 48% 16% 0% 34% 28% 20% 10% 5% Most Effective Fraud Management Tools Tool selected as one of “Top Three” most effective fraud tools by 25%+ of those using it *Other – No respondents selected out-of-wallet/in-wallet challenge, credit history check, biometric indicators and Google Maps as top three most effective tools. Base: Merchants with annual eCommerce sales ≄$25M who use tool: automated or manual (excludes None / No Answer).
  • 9. © 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved. 9 2013 Online Fraud Report Spotlight on Mobile With smartphones and tablets now outpacing PC/laptop sales4 , 40% of respondents state that they have mobile commerce sales (in comparison to 33% in 2011, an increase of 20%). As a result of significantly more mobile devices, more companies are beginning to track payment fraud in mobile commerce – 28%, in comparison to 8% reported in 2011. The mobile channel poses tremendous opportunity for companies, but also poses some risk, as typical validation tools available through the web are not as effective for mobile. On the other hand, mobile phones provide rich data to companies to validate the consumer, especially through a mobile app. MobileTelephone/ Mailorder Total eCommerce Of those tracking fraud, average % of annual revenue lost to payment fraud FraudRatebyRevenue,perSalesChannel 72% 1.4% 0.4% 0.9% 54%39% 28%46%61% Total eCommerce Telephone / Mail order Mobile 4 http://mashable.com/2012/02/03/smartphone-sales-overtake-pcs/ Tracks payment fraudDoes not track/ Don’t know / No answer
  • 10. © 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved.10 2013 Online Fraud Report Closely monitor and track behavior from transactions that come from mobile devices and cross-check against other historical data. If a customer uses an app to purchase, you can potentially obtain additional information to use in your screening rules. Utilize and create rules around device ïŹngerprinting, proxy piercing and VPN detection. For example, with iOS, Android, and Windows 8 devices, fraudsters can bypass the pre-installed browser and use one that they’ve downloaded instead, enabling them to create proxy sites that mask their actual location. Similarly, free VPN solutions enable fraudsters to select an originating IP address. As VPN solutions are often customized, traditional detection routines do not work as efïŹciently. Factor the presence of malware and other unauthorized software running on the mobile device into your fraud screening strategies. Mobile malware, like PC malware, can steal account credentials, take over sessions, perform injection attacks and corrupt browsers and apps engaged in logins and transactions. If you have a dedicated mobile app, promote its use to your customers. Apps can provide much better separation on the device (sandboxing) and stronger OS-level protection. Mobile fraud MitiGation strateGies Source: aarij Khan, Senior director Product MarKeting, threatMetrix
  • 11. © 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved. 11 2013 Online Fraud Report After an evaluation by an automated screening process, orders with more ambiguous transaction characteristics will be sent to manual review for a deeper level of investigation. In this process, an individual or team of reviewers will use additional data verification sources accompanied by their judgment (developed through experience) to render a decision. For maximum efficiency, in addition to consolidating various external verification sources into one, compact user interface, the review team should have access to a case management system to optimally distribute or allocate orders in queue(s). Manual Review FRAUD CLAIM MANAGEMENT 02 LAIM 03 01 ACCEPT / REJECT AUTOMATED SCREENING TUNING AND ANALYTICS MANUAL REVIEW TUN 04 Manual Review Trends 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 69% 32% 72% 28% 72% 75% 73% 25%27% 24% % Orders Reviewed by Merchants Practicing Review % Merchants Performing Manual Order Review # Minutes to Research and Accept/Reject Suspicious Orders Overall <$5M $5-<$25M $25-<$100M $100M+ 5 15 6 4 5 (Overall and by Merchant Size) Annual eCommerce Revenue 20% %who take20+ minutes 41% 17% 10% 6%
  • 12. © 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved.12 2013 Online Fraud Report % of Manually Accepted ORders that Turned Out to be Fraudulent - 2012 % of respondents that track fraud for manually reviewed orders 60% 4% 40% Track fraud rateDo not track Base: Merchants with annual eCommerce sales ≄$25M practicing manual review (excludes Don’t know/ No answer) Base: Merchants practicing manual review (excludes Don’t know/ No answer)
  • 13. © 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved. 13 2013 Online Fraud Report Because review teams typically account for the largest cost in an organization’s fraud management budget, monitoring and optimizing review team performance is critical. Consider how the team is performing in the context of your operational goals and helping to meet your company’s overall financial objectives. 1. Balance effectiveness with efficiency by measuring key performancemetricsbyreviewerandreviewteam: ‱ Chargebacksintotal,asapercentageofthenumberof orders and total transaction revenue ‱ Average and aggregate review times to disposition orders ‱ Number of transactions reviewed ‱ (if possible) Number of inadvertent customer insults (false positives) 2. Measure these overall fraud management KPIs over a specific period of time to determine trends and areas of concern and areas of improvement. Establish a baseline for comparison, using your historical data and/or industry benchmarks (such as those provided by CyberSource – see sample charts on the right). Optimizing Manual Review Success: Measure, refine, measure, refine
. Carl Tucker, Principal, CyberSource Global Services PeerGroupBenchmark Fraud Rate % October 2011-September 2012 PeerGroupBenchmark PeerGroupBenchmark Manual Review Rate % October 2011-September 2012
  • 14. © 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved.14 2013 Online Fraud Report Order Dispositioning (Accept/Reject) The ultimate outcome of an automated and manual review process is the decision to either Accept or Reject an order. As a general rule of thumb, an equivalent number of orders should be accepted as rejected. Excessively high or low post-manual review acceptance rates after manual review can indicate that more orders than necessary are being diverted to manual review, which increases overhead costs and delays in fulfilling customer orders. This skewing of manual Accept-Reject rates can typically be resolved by tuning the automated fraud detection system earlier in the process to bring the manual review rates into better balance. FRAUD CLAIM MANAGEMENT 02 LAIM 03 0011 ACCEPT / REJECT AUTOMATED SCREENING TUNING AND ANALYTICS MANUAL REVIEW TUN 04
  • 15. © 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved. 15 2013 Online Fraud Report Overall <$5M $5M-<$25M $25M-<$100M $100M+ Average % Orders Rejected Due to Suspicion of Fraud (Overall and by Merchant Size) 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 3.9% 3.7% 2.3% 2.5% 6.3% 2.2% 2.9% Annual eCommerce Revenue Base: Merchants accepting orders from U.S./Canada (excludes Don’t know / No answer) 20122011 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Order Rejection Rates, Domestic vs. International 2.9% 2.4% 2.7% 2.8% 7.3% 2.9% 7.5% 7.6% 7.7% 10.9% % of International Orders Rejected% U.S./Canada Orders Rejected due to Suspicion of Fraud
  • 16. © 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved.16 2013 Online Fraud Report Overall <$5M $5M-<$25M $25M-<$100M $100M+ Post-Review Order Acceptance Rate (Overall and by Merchant Size) - 2012 75% 71% 65% 82% 18% 81% 19% 35% 29% 25% Annual eCommerce Revenue Base: Merchants practicing manual review (excludes None / No answer) RejectedAccepted
  • 17. © 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved. 17 2013 Online Fraud Report DIMENSIONALITY SPECIFICITY CORNERING THE“LAYERED” SETOFDETECTORS IDENTIFY ANDACCEPT GOODORDERS, ANDKEEP FRAUDSTERS OUT. ASK FOR RELIABLE INFORMATION CREATE A SAFETY NET ADD DIMENSIONS OF RELATED DATA Creating Layers to Defend Against Fraud Scott Boding, Business Leader in Risk Solutions, CyberSource The goal of any fraud management strategy is to accurately identify and accept good orders, while keeping fraudsters out. We advocate a multi-factored approach or using a “layered” set of detectors in concert, including techniques shown here. Once you have the key piece of reliable information, add “dimensions” of other, related data that you have on the order (e.g., device fingerprint, account number, email, etc.), then build rules using these dimensions in combination. For example, create rules with shipping address + velocity intervals AND shipping address + account number(s). It makes it more difficult to perpetrate fraud systematically. In the absence of reliable or available data, use “generic” information to create a safety net and assess risk based on the level of information you have. For instance, if shipping address information is not available, create rules around risk levels associated with the zip code or country of the shipping address. Force the fraudster to surrender a key piece of reliable information using hard rules (e.g., disable shipping redirect and require that the shipping address is deliverable).
  • 18. © 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved.18 2013 Online Fraud Report Fraud Claim Management FRAUD CLAIM MANAGEMENT 02 LAIM 03 0011 ACCEPT / REJECT AUTOMATED SCREENING TUNING AND ANALYTICS MANUAL REVIEW TUN 04 We define fraud as chargebacks and credits issued by the merchant due to likelihood of fraud. As a result, actual fraud rates reported tend to be higher than those cited by banks or card schemes. When monitoring the level and trend of fraud loss, we focus on fraud rate by revenue (also known as the revenue fraud loss rate), fraud rate by order (fraudulent order rate), and the average value of a fraudulent order relative to a valid order. In 2012, the average ticket value for a fraudulent order was 35% higher than a valid order ($200 versus $149, respectively). %onlineOrdersLost 201220112010200920082007200520042003 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% AverageFraudRatebyOrder 0.8% 0.6% 0.9%0.9% 1.1%1.1%1.0% 1.3%1.3% Average Fraud Rate by Revenue 2012201120102009200820072006200520042003 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% %OnlineRevenueLost 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.9 1.0 Estimated Revenue Lost Due to Online Fraud 2012201120102009200820072006200520042003 $0.0 $0.5 $1.0 $1.5 $2.0 $2.5 $3.0 $3.5 $4.0 $LossinBillions 1.9 2.6 2.8 3.1 3.7 4.0 3.3 2.7 3.53.4
  • 19. © 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved. 19 2013 Online Fraud Report Although the domestic fraudulent order rate has increased to 0.8%, the international fraudulent order rate has decreased to 1.6%. However, it’s still twice as high. 20122011201020092008 0.0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Fraud Rate by Order, Domestic vs. International 0.8% 1.6% 2.0% 0.6% 2.1% 0.9%0.9% 4.0% 2.0% 1.1% *Base: Merchants accepting orders from U.S./Canada (excludesDon’tknow/Noanswer) **Base: Merchants accepting international orders (excludes Don’t know / No answer) Fraud Rate - by Order, Domestic* Fraud Rate - by Order, International**
  • 20. © 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved.20 2013 Online Fraud Report Although chargebacks are the most often cited metric, companies report that chargebacks account for only 43% of all fraud claims. Overall <$5M $5M-<$25M $25M-<$100M $100M+ % of Fraud Claims: Chargebacks vs. Credits Issued by Merchant (Overall and by Merchant Size) 57% 69% 75% 63% 37% 42% 58% 25% 31% 43% Annual eCommerce Revenue Base: Merchants expecting domestic fraud (excludes Don’t know) ChargebacksCredits Issued
  • 21. © 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved. 21 2013 Online Fraud Report Overall <$5M $5M-<$25M $25M-<$100M $100M+ Fraud Chargeback Re-presentment: Win Rate/Net Recovery Rate (Overall and by Merchant Size) 53% 48% 61% 39% 22% 59% 28%29% 26%26% Annual eCommerce Revenue 1Net Recovery is calculated as Win Rate x Re-presentment Rate (computed individually for respondents who answered both questions, then averaged) % Net Recovery1% Challenged 48% Average Win Rate41% Average Win Rate 43% Average Win Rate 44% Average Win Rate 43% Average Win Rate 5 http://usa.visa.com/download/merchants/compelling-evidence-dispute-resolution.pdf In April 2013, Visa will institute changes in chargeback rules to streamline the dispute resolution process overall (effective globally, excluding Visa Europe). Below is a quick review of what’s ahead (effective on or after April 20, 2013): 1. CompellingEvidenceReasonCodes.Merchantswillhave additional representment rights to provide compelling evidence for chargeback Reason Codes 30 (Services Not Provided or Merchandise Not Received), 53 (Not as Described or Defective Merchandise), 81 (Fraud – Card- Present Environment), and 83 (Fraud – Card-Absent Environment). These are only new representment rights to provide compelling evidence and not a remedy for the chargeback. 2. Issuers Must Address Compelling Evidence. If compelling evidenceisprovidedbytheacquirerwiththerepresentment, issuers must attempt to contact their cardholder with this new information. 3. Pre-Arbitration Requirement for Issuers. If the issuer refutes the compelling evidence provided with the representment by the acquirer, the issuer must initiate a pre-arbitration case prior to filing arbitration with Visa. A table outlining Allowable Compelling Evidence by Reason Code is available for reference (see footnoted URL). For more information on these changes, please contact your acquiring bank, processor or Visa representative. Updates to Visa Inc.’s Chargeback and Dispute Resolution Process5
  • 22. © 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved.22 2013 Online Fraud Report Tuning and Analytics FRAUD CLAIM MANAGEMENT 02 LAIM 03 0011 ACCEPT / REJECT AUTOMATED SCREENING TUNING AND ANALYTICS MANUAL REVIEW TUN 044 For most companies, budgets and resources remain unchanged in 2013. Similar to last year, the order review staff comprises over half of an organization’s budget for fraud management. *Median used Expected Budget Change for Fraud Management 2013 23% Increase 4% decrease 73% No Change Average* % Fraud Management Budget Expected to INCREASE 10% Average* % Fraud Management Budget Expected to DECREASE 25%
  • 23. © 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved. 23 2013 Online Fraud Report PlannedStaffingLevelsforFuture Base: Total Merchants (excludes No answer) Base:MerchantswhomanuallyreviewtoscreenforeCommercefraud(ExcludingDon’tknow/Noanswer) Average % Spending Allocation for Fraud Management 2013 52% Order Review Staff29% 3rd Party Tools 19% Internal Tools& Systems 8% Decrease 69% Same 23% Increase Perceived Fraud Threats In 2012, the Merchant Risk Council (MRC) partnered with CyberSource to survey its members on the top fraud attacks6 that were most impactful to them, by frequency of attack and revenue loss. In ranked order, the top nine fraud attacks were: 1. Clean Fraud 2. Account Takeover 3. Friendly Fraud 4. Identity Theft 5. Affiliate Fraud 6. Re-shipping 7. Botnets 8. Phishing/Pharming/Whaling 9. Triangulation Schemes Respondents to this year’s CyberSource Online Fraud Survey shed some light into the top three. Nearly 60% say that friendly fraud7 hasincreasedoverthelasttwoyears,andoverhalfsaythat the impact of account takeover is significant on their business. Yet on the positive side, nearly 2/3 say that fraud detection is either the same or easier in comparison to 12 months ago. 6 To listen to a recorded webinar of this research, go to www.cybersource.com/ top9fraudtrends 7 Defined as the actual cardholder or someone known to the cardholder (such as a family member) making a legitimate purchase and then subsequently disputing the charge (charging back), claiming never to have purchased or received the goods.
  • 24. © 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved.24 2013 Online Fraud Report Base: Merchants with annual eCommerce revenue $25M+ (excludes Don’t know) Perception of Friendly Fraud Over the Last 2 Years 35% No change 59% Increased 6% Decreased Base: Merchants with annual eCommerce revenue $25M+ (excludes Don’t know / those without registered account users) 51% Significant 7% Neither 42% Insignificant 13% of those find it ‘very significant’ Significance of account takeover on business Base: Merchants with annual eCommerce revenue $25M+ (excludes Don’t know / No answer) 62% yes 38% no same tools USED for account takeover and order screening Base: Total Merchants (excludes Don’t know) Ease of fraud detection compared to 12 months ago 34% More Difficult 46% Same 19% Easier
  • 25. © 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved. 25 2013 Online Fraud Report To provide an overall assessment and basis for comparison, we took a snapshot of average survey respondent performance across four key performance indicators (KPIs): manual review rate, order rejection rate, fraud rate by order, and fraud rate by revenue, highlighting KPIs by industry and organizational size. KPIs will vary, as each company is unique in terms of their business objectives, resources, expertise, fraud tolerance and risk. Companies constantly weigh the tradeoffs among fraud loss, customer experience, and cost, in tuning their operations to protect against the latest fraud attacks. Though it is unlikely that fraud can ever be eliminated completely, organizations can effectively manage fraud with the right systems, people, and processes in place. KPIs by Merchant Size 42% 6.3% 1.5% 25% 2.0% 16% 11% 3.7% 2.5% 0.9% 0.6% Average 1.3% 0.5% 2.2% 0.7% 0.7% Order Reject Rate (avg = 2.9%) Fraud Rate - by Revenue (avg = 0.9%) Fraud Rate - by Order (avg = 0.8%)Manual Review Rate (avg = 25%) <$5M $5M-<$25M $25M-<$100M $100M+ CONCLUSION
  • 26. © 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved.26 2013 Online Fraud Report KPIs by Select Industries 21% 2.6% 0.4% 26% 0.6% 20% 32%3.6% 1.4% 0.9% 0.5% Average 0.9% 0.9% 3.5% 1.0% 0.9% Order Reject Rate (avg = 2.9%) Fraud Rate - by Revenue (avg = 0.9%) Fraud Rate - by Order (avg = 0.8%)Manual Review Rate (avg = 25%) DigitalGoods &Services Merchandise/ HouseholdProducts Physicalgoods AllServices
  • 27. © 2013 CyberSource Corporation, a Visa company. All rights reserved. 27 2013 Online Fraud Report Resources & Solutions Report & Survey Methodology This survey was conducted via online questionnaire by Mindwave Research. Participating organizations completed the survey September 12 – October 12, 2012. All participants were either responsible for or influenced decisions regarding risk management in their companies. 13% of the survey participants use CyberSource fraud management solutions. This report is based on a survey of U.S. and Canadian online merchants. Decision makers who participated in this survey represent a blend of small, medium and large-sized organizations based in North America. Experience levels range from companies in their first year of online transactions to some of the largest retailers and digital distribution entities in the world. Companies participating in the survey reported a total estimate of more than $105 billion for their 2012 online sales. To find information on CyberSource’s industry-leading fraud managementsolutions,self-pacedwebinars,andotherwhitepapers on payment management, visit www.cybersource.com. CyberSource Fraud Management Solutions CyberSource, an industry leader in fraud management solutions, enables businesses to continually improve profitability by detecting fraud sooner and more accurately and by streamlining fraud management operations. CyberSource provides a complete range of solutions, including training, consultation, active management of fraud screening, and outsourcing all or part of your fraud management operations. Decision Manager, our hosted fraud management system, serves as the foundation for CyberSource Fraud Management Solutions. Featuring the world’s largest fraud detection radar, Decision Manager provides access to a full range of data generated from global fraud detectors, multi-merchant and cross-industry correlations, truth data and more, across sales channels and geographies. It features a highly flexible rules engine backed by powerful statistical risk models, a customizable case management system, and detailed reporting and analytics. Our fraud solutions are led by analysts with deep fraud management experience in your industry. With a global staff on six continents, our analysts are able to detect the latest fraud trends quickly to ensure your fraud losses are minimized while keeping your operations running efficiently. In addition, CyberSource has a multi-lingual review team of experts providing your business with 24/7 risk screening capability. All of our fraud experts maintain rigorous ongoing training and performance monitoring to ensure consistently high quality results are achieved. Chargeback Management Service– ENHANCED! CyberSource chargeback experts perform detailed analysis of your chargebacks and provide best practice advice for your fraud operations to prevent future chargebacks. We manage the entire chargeback recovery process – receipt and review, interaction with banks, and re-presentment documentation-- to ensure that you maximize profitability with the least impact to your operations. Online Fraud Survey Wave Total number of companies participating Annual Online Revenue Less than $5M $5M to less than $25M $25M or more Duration of Online Selling Less than 1 year 1 – 2 years 3 – 4 years 5 or more years Risk Responsibility Ultimately responsible Influence decision 2008 400 53% 18% 29% 11% 12% 13% 64% 58% 42% 2009 352 55% 14% 31% 5% 16% 14% 65% 54% 46% 2010 334 54% 14% 32% 6% 11% 19% 64% 55% 45% 2011 325 56% 15% 29% 5% 12% 15% 68% 50% 50% 2012 312 46% 16% 38% 4% 7% 18% 71% 47% 53% Summary of Participant Profiles
  • 28. About CyberSource CyberSource Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Visa Inc., is a payment management company. More than 400,000 businesses worldwide use CyberSource and Authorize.Net brand solutions to process online payments, streamline fraud management and simplify payment security. The company is headquartered in Foster City, California, and maintains offices throughout the world, with regional headquarters in Singapore, Tokyo, Miami, Sao Paulo and Reading, U.K. CyberSource operates in Europe under agreement with Visa Europe. For more information, please visit www.cybersource.com. North America CyberSource HQ Phone: +1 888 330 2300 +1 650 432 7350 Email: sales@cybersource.com Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) CyberSource Ltda. Phone: +1 305 328 1998 Email: lac@cybersource.com Europe CyberSource Ltd. Phone: +44 (0) 118 990 7300 Email: uk@cybersource.com Asia Pacific CYBS Singapore Pte Ltd. Email: ap_enquiries@cybersource.com Japan CyberSource KK Phone: +81 (0) 3 3548 9873 Email: sales@cybersource.co.jp