1. Sponsored by
Vol. 12, No. 68 / April 11, 2013
USDA issued yesterday, April 10, its latest forecasts USDA Estimates of 2013 Beef & Pork Production
Data shows the USDA estimates of 2013 as published in each monthly WASDE report
for beef, pork and poultry production for the remainder of
the year. The first forecasts for 2014 will be issued next month. 25,300 mi l lb.
BEEF
The charts to the right show how the production estimates for the 25,200
three main species have evolved in the last 12 months and put the 25,100
current changes in some perspective. The biggest revision in the 25,000
latest report was with regard to beef production. Total commer- 24,900
cial production is estimated to be 24.976 billion pounds, 230 mil- 24,800
lion pounds or 0.9% less than the forecast presented in the March 24,700
report. The decline likely reflects expectations for a notable reduc- 24,600
tion in cattle slaughter, especially in the second half of the year 24,500
24,400
and a slowdown in cattle carcass weight gains. Smaller feedlot
24,300
placements will continue to limit the number of cattle coming to
Jan
Nov
Jan
Nov
Mar
Apr
May
Mar
Apr
May
Feb
Aug
Sep
Feb
Aug
Sep
Dec
Dec
Jul
Jul
Jun
Jun
Oct
Oct
market in the next few months. The slowdown in weight gains is Estimates presented in 2012 … …and so far this year
also significant as last year the surge in cattle weights managed to
offset a good portion of the decline in the number of cattle coming 24,000 mil lb.
PORK
to market. The changes to imports and exports were relatively 23,800
small, with import volume increased by 10 million pounds or 0.4% 23,600
and export volume reduced by 15 million pounds or 0.6%. The 23,400
adjustments largely reflect trade flows based on the February data 23,200
and to a lesser extent the pace of weekly export shipments todate.
23,000
In all, the latest WASDE report reduced the per-capita consump-
22,800
tion figure by 0.7% compared to it latest forecast and per capita
consumption for 2013 is now pegged at 55.7 pounds, down 2.9% 22,600
compared to a year ago. Despite the reduction in meat availabil- 22,400
ity, the price response at both retail and foodservice counter has 22,200
Apr
Apr
Jan
Nov
Aug
Jan
Nov
Aug
Mar
May
Dec
Mar
May
Dec
Feb
Sep
Feb
Sep
Jul
Jul
Jun
Jun
Oct
Oct
been underwhelming. Live cattle futures dropped to contract
Estimates presented in 2012 … …and so far this year
lows in yesterday’s trading. Canada also announced that it would
impose about $1 billion in tariffs in US goods to compensate for 38,000 mil lb.
BROILERS
the impact of Mandatory Country of Origin Labelling (MCOOL) on
Canadian beef and pork coming into the US. Canada is one of the 37,500
largest buyers of US beef and the tariffs will likely impact US beef
37,000
shipments to the Canadian market. Please note that today is
the last day for comments regarding MCOOL 36,500
USDA raised its guidance on pork production for 2013.
36,000
Total commercial pork output was estimated at 23.522 bil-
lion pounds, 130 million pounds or 0.6% larger than the 35,500
forecast presented in March and 1.1% higher than 2012 pro-
duction. The adjustment reflects the upward revision in pig crop 35,000
Apr
Apr
Jan
Nov
Nov
Aug
Jan
Aug
Mar
May
Dec
Mar
May
Dec
Feb
Sep
Feb
Sep
Jul
Jul
Jun
Jun
Oct
numbers presented in the latest Hogs and Pigs report. Lower feed Oct
Estimates presented in 2012 … …and so far this year
costs in the second half are seen improving hog producer profita-
bility and support a modest increase in year over year production.
USDA also lowered its estimates of US pork production, reducing The combination of more pork coming to market and less going to
expected 2013 pork exports by 160 million pounds or 3% compared export is expected to bolster pork availability in the domestic mar-
to the forecast given in March. As a result, pork exports in 2013 ket, helping keep pork prices in check. Pork per capita consump-
are now expected to be 3.3% smaller than they were a year ago. tion is now expected to be 46.8 pounds per person (retail wt), 2%
higher than a year ago.
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