All Change symposium keynote presentation given by Mark Mulligan on 11 Sep 09

2. Mark Mulligan Vice President & Research Director Forrester Research September 11 th , 2009 Music and the Media Meltdown

5. The music Industries are at a cross roads

6. The three ages of digital music Free Paid Free and Paid Rapid rise of file sharing Modest rise of paid services Evolution of multi-tiered marketplace 1995-2002 2003-2007 2008-

8. The 21st Century European Music Industry Will be Smaller and More Complex Than Its 20th Century Predecessor Music Revenues (billions) Source: Forrester Digital Music Model, 12/08 (Western Europe) Recorded Music Revenues €6.4bn Digital Music Revenues €4.0bn 2011: Music Market Begins to Grow 2007: Accelerated Decline 2001: Peak Revenues Total digital channel share in 2014: 57%

10. The Four Phases Of Technology’s Impact On Media

11. Consumption is king as the distribution paradigm fades

12. And monetizing consumption is the ticket out of the Media Meltdown Current Media Landscape Future Media Landscape Media Meltdown High Low High Low Consumption based monetization Units based monetization Total revenues Total consumption Key

13. What do these have in common? ! They are both scarce, social experiences

14. An implication: physical is the new physical CD’s, downloads Gigs, concerts festivals e.g. Live Nation Movies Theme parks, theatres e.g. Disney TV shows Theatre screening based events etc. Print and online publishing Special interest events Established Physical Distribution Business Models Physical, Social Consumption Business Models Media Meltdown Weakens Core Revenues

15. Closed loop ecosystems are the success stories of paid content in the digital age

16. “ The great wines of France are not content providers to the glass manufacturing business” Andrew Lloyd Webber to the House of Lords, April 2009

17. Four Distinct Tiers of Music Services Built Around the ‘Four Cs’ of Digital Content More Less More Less Content More Less Implementation: release windows Convenience Implementation: discovery & DRM Cost Implementation: pricing & subsidies Premium Services Subsidized Services Free & ’Feel Like Free’ Services Community Implementation: forums, networks Same Same

20. Single channel partners can leverage multiple release windows across distinct content offerings Release Window Preview Mainstream Pay ‘ Free to Air’ (Week 3) (Week 1) (Week 6) Comes with U2 Handset / Orange Tariff Comes With Music / Orange Tariff Orange Music Store Orange Subsidized ISP Bundle Consumer Product Bundles

21. “ The future is already here – it's just not evenly distributed” – William Gibson

22. The Music Industries are at a cross roads… … and one that requires careful navigation

23. Thanks [email_address] http://MusicIndustryBlog.wordpress.com http://blogs.forrester.com/consumer_product_strategy/mark_mulligan/ http://twitter.com/Mark_Mulligan