This document discusses strategic foresight as a tool for territorial governance. It begins with an introduction and overview of strategic foresight. It then outlines the strategic foresight process, which includes framing questions, scanning horizons, forecasting futures, visioning preferred futures, planning options, and taking action. Key dimensions of uncertainty and potential future scenarios are also discussed, including "Jazz", "Lords of Misrule", and "Wise Counsels". The document explores driving forces for changes in areas like society, technology, economics, environment, and politics that could impact the built environment.

1. Urban Foresight As A Tool For Territorial Governance “Whither Strategic Foresight?” Professor John S Ratcliffe Brussels September 2011

2. Is this humanity’s last century – or a century that sets the world on a course towards a spectacular new future? A NEW MINDSET “The problems of the world cannot possibly be solved by sceptics or cynics whose horizons are limited by the obvious realities. We need men who can dream of things that never were.” (John F. Kennedy)

3. The Harbingers of Change A Confluence of Powerful Trends Problems Seem Intractable The Demographics of Discord The ‘New Players’ Problems are Structural “Flight For The 21st Century: ‘Icarus’ Or ‘The Phoenix’ ” “The unusual and the unknown make us either over confident or overly fearful” (Gaius Julius Caesar)

4. “Icarus” – Prevailing Pessimism Population Growth Climate Change Food and Water Safety and Security Energy Deficit “If we don't change direction soon, we'll end up where we're going.” (Irwin Corey)

5. “The Phoenix” – Rational Optimism Urban Prospect Developing Technology A New Economy The Natural Step New Nuclear “A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty” (Winston Churchill)

6. The Need for Vision “A vision without a task is but a dream A task without a vision is drudgery A vision with a task is the hope of the world” (Inscription in a church, Sussex, England, 1730) “No problem can be solved from the same level of consciousness that created it. We must learn to see the world anew” (Albert Einstein)

7. Present Problems Change, Complexity and Risk / Uncertainty Lack of an Integrated Approach Short-term Orientation Obsolescence of ‘Predict and Provide’ Model Limited Collaboration of Stakeholders “It’s not the strong that survive – but the most adaptable” (Charles Darwin)

8. Why Foresight? Running a 21st century city region more complex Need to understand driving forces of change Trends matter – weak signals count Anticipation and exploration prerequisite Rehearsing alternative futures “The Empires of the future are the Empires of the mind” (Winston Churchill)

9. What Is Foresight? Strategic foresight (SF) is having a view of what can be done by organisations and societies today to positively influence the future. SF is the ability to create and maintain a high-quality, coherent and functional forward view, and to use the insights arising in civic and organisationally useful ways. SF is thinking about, debating and shaping the future. “Have deep roots, a strong trunk, live long by looking long.” (Lao Tzu)

10. Foresight Teams Contribution Anticipating emerging issues Identifying unintended consequences Getting a sense of the big picture Drawing on a wide range of information sources Involving all concerned “Business today consists of persuading crowds”

11. STAGE OBJECTIVES OUTPUT Framing Scoping the project : attitude, audience, work environment, rationale and purpose, objectives and teams. Focal Issue Scanning Collecting the information : the system, history and context of the issue and how to scan for information regarding the future of issue. Information Forecasting Describing baseline and alternative futures : drivers and uncertainties, tools, diverging and converging approaches, and alternatives. Baseline and Alternative Futures Visioning Choosing a preferred future : implications of the forecast, and envisioning desired outcomes. Preferred Future Planning Organising to achieve the vision : strategy, options and plans. Strategy and Plans Acting Implementing the plan : communicating the results, developing action agenda and institutionalising strategic thinking and intelligence systems. Action Strategic Foresight

12. High to Low Importance Set the Strategic Question Identify the Driving Forces of Change Divergence Determine the Main Issues and Trends Clarify the Level of Impact and Degree of Uncertainty Establish Scenario Logics Emergence Create Different Scenarios Test Policy Options Identify Turning Points Produce Prospective Convergence Move to Strategic Planning Prospective Through Scenarios Strategic Conversations Causal Layered Analysis Horizon Scanning Delphi Survey Cross-ImpactAnalysis Prospective Workshops Clustering Polarising Ranking VERGE Creative Writing Wind Tunnel Testing Gaming and Simulation

14. The Strategic Foresight Process Framing the Strategic Question(s) Scanning the Horizon Forecasting Alternative Futures Visioning A Preferred Future Planning Strategic Options Acting on an Agreed Agenda “Every man takes the limits of his own field of vision for the limits of the world” (Arthur Schopenhauer)

15. Framing The Strategic Question Adjust Attitudes Recognise the Character of Change Understand the Rationale and Purpose Weave ‘Outside and Then’ with ‘Inside and Now’ Set Objectives “It is not the answer that enlightens but the question” (Eugène Ionesco)

16. Scanning The Horizon Map the System Conduct a Stakeholder Analysis Start by Looking Backwards Explore the Unfamiliar Consult ‘Remarkable People’ "Change is the law of life. And those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future." (John F. Kennedy)

17. Forecasting Alternative Futures Identify Drivers, Trends, Issues Look for Turning Points Generate Divergent Ideas Prioritise Convergent Views Form Alternative Futures “If you can dream it, you can do it” (Walt Disney)

18. Visioning A Preferred Future Identify Implications/Unintended Consequences Think of the Longer-Term Challenge Assumptions Ask ‘What if ?’ Questions Develop a Strategic Vision and Goals “You can analyse the past and appraise the present, but you have to design the future”

19. Planning Strategic Options Think Strategically to Provoke Strategic Conversations Spot Areas of Strategic Choice by Identifying Critical Branching Points Base Strategic Recommendations On Organisations Distinctive Attributes Evaluate Proposed Strategy Along Multiple Dimensions Have Contingency Plans for Unexpected Surprises “The future is the only kind of property that the masters willingly concede to slaves” (Albert Camus)

20. Acting On An Agreed Agenda Communicate Results Effectively Create an Action Plan with a Sense of Urgency Identify Milestones on the Path Towards a Preferred Future Establish an Intelligence System Institutionalise Strategic Thinking “You can only predict things after they have happened” (Eugène Ionesco)

21. What Are The Prospects?“Can we go on like this?” Meta-forces Macro-forces Micro-forces “Reason is, and ought only to be the slave of the passions and can never pretend to any other office than to serve and obey them” (David Hume, 1783)

22. However, the history of modern societies suggest also something for our future…. Figure 1: Kondratieff cycles – long waves of prosperity.Rolling 10-year yield on the S&P 500 since 1814 till March 2009 (in %, p. a.) Source: Datastream; Illustration: Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis

23. Three Meta-forces VALUES VISIONS VECTORS “Unless the investment in children is made, all of humanity's most fundamental long-term problems will remain fundamental long-term problems.” (UNICEF)

24. Values The Transformation Towards A Sustainable Responsible Civilization “All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.” (Edmund Burke)

25. DOWN UP Ecological footprint Improving people’s health and well-being while respecting the limits of natural resources *HDI = life expectancy + education level + purchasing power Human Development Index* Health & Well-being Source: WWF Living Planet Report 2006 "Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development."

26. The Great Global Values Debate Millennium Development Goals Cultures Consequences Spiral Dynamics World Values Survey Interfaith Dialogue “Believe those who are seeking the truth; doubt those who find it” (André Gide )

27. Cultural Values Map “What we call basic truths are simply the ones we discover after all the others” (Albert Camus)

28. Visions “Twenty-first Century Enlightenment” Self-Aware Autonomy Empathetic Universalism Progress and Ethics The Social Aspiration Gap Signposts to 21st C. Enlightenment “Government is a badge of lost innocence… For were the impulses of conscience clear, uniform and irresistibly obeyed, man would need no other lawgiver” (Thomas Paine)

29. To a sustainable world in 2050 From business-as-usual

30. To a sustainable world in 2050 TODAY From business-as-usual

31. To a sustainable world in 2050 2050 From business-as-usual

32. Vectors “An agent that acts as a carrier or transporter” Globalisation Urbanisation Environmentalism Internet Social Media Faith – Based Movements Terrorism Pandemics “The Internet is becoming the town square for the global village of tomorrow.” (Bill Gates )

33. proGective -- Fabienne GOUX-BAUDIMENT©

34. Risks Interconnection Map 2011

35. Imagineering the Built Environment STRATEGIC FORESIGHT 2030“Just Imagine!” Professor John S Ratcliffe July 2011

36. Exordium A Changing World The New, The Many, The Connected A “Grand Transformation” ‘Metanoia’ – And the Learning Organisation The Need for Strategic Foresight “To shape the future you must first imagine it.” (Charles Handy)

37. Brainstorm Set the Strategic Question Consider the Crucibles of Change Divergence Horizon Scanning Explore the Built Environment: Driving Forces Questionnaire Survey Identify the Institutional Issues Establish the Key Dimensions of Uncertainty Emergence Strategic Conversations Create Alternative Future Scenarios Agree A Preferred Future Futures Workshops Determine Strategic Policy Fields Convergence Propose An Action Agenda “Have deep roots, a strong trunk, live long by looking long.” (Lao Tzu) Move To Strategic Planning The Strategic Foresight Process

38. Emergence “Jazz” “Lords of Misrule” Divergence Fostering Foresight Convergence Society & Culture Enlightened Leadership “Wise Counsels” Technology & Innovation Synergy with Academe Economics & Finance Alternative Futures Cultivating Collegiality Environment & Ethics Politics & Governance Suffusing Sustainability Preferred Vision Uncertainty & Change The Visioning Progression “If you want to know how a man thinks, imagine the world when they were young” (Napoleon Bonaparte)

39. Stage One: Divergence Divergence Society & Culture Technology & Innovation Economics & Finance Environment & Ethics Politics & Governance Uncertainty & Change “Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go”

40. The Five Crucibles Of Change Financial Markets and a New Economics Global Governance and Social Disparity Planetary Stewardship in an Age of Scarcity Creative Cities with Connected Communities Productivity, Partnership and People “They must often change who would be constant in happiness or wisdom.” (Confucius)

41. 1. Financial Markets And A New Economics Age of sustainable living in a resource constrained world The “Depletion of the West” From an energy to an information economy Restoration of trust Advent of “behavioural economics” “Let a hundred flowers blossom, let a hundred schools of thought contend.” (Mao Tse-Tung)

42. 2. Global Governance And Social Disparity Widening gap between rich and poor Capacity and quality of infrastructure A multi-polar world The illegal economy World’s supply of capital “All human beings are interconnected, one with all other elements in creation.” (Henry Reed)

43. 3. Planetary Stewardship In An Age Of Scarcity Onset of climate change towards global warming Process of urbanisation Energy deficits loom Food system in crisis Water scarcity and water shortages “We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.” (Native American Proverb)

44. 4. Creative Cities With Connected Communities Quality of life Competitiveness through creativity Shared vision and identity Connectivity Leaders and leadership “Anyone who believes that exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist” (Kenneth Boulding)

45. 5. Productivity, Partnership And People Boosting productivity and promoting innovation Role of the state and market capitalism Public-private partnerships Global companies Localism and strengthening local democracy “For each of our actions there are only consequences.” (James Lovelock)

46. Built Environment: Exploring the Driving Forces of Change Society and Culture Technology and Innovation Economics and Finance Environment and Ethics Politics and Governance “Information is a monster that feeds off itself, while starving us of meaning, knowledge and wisdom.” (T.S. Eliot)

47. Society and Culture Cross disciplinarity, networks and systems Global youth and young talent Migration, diversity and mobility The ‘experience environment’ New players, new sectors and new places and spaces “He who does not trust enough, will not be trusted” (Lao Tzu)

48. Technology and Innovation Convergence, change and connectivity Automation and augmentation Prefabrication, customisation and lean construction Smarter buildings and smarter services Social networks, research and consultancy “Every man takes the limits of his own field of vision for the limits of the world” (Arthur Shopenhauer)

49. Economics and Finance Property as a physical and functional asset Attractiveness of second- and third-tier cities Growth of global corporations Movement from quantity to quality New period of unprecedented global development “In a country well governed poverty is something to be ashamed of. In a country badly governed wealth is something to be ashamed of” (Confucius, 5th Century BC)

50. Environment and Ethics Social worth and social responsibility Urbanisation challenge to planners and developers Risk management and competition Green buildings and environmental performance Trust, responsibility and judgement “A little rebellion now and then is a good thing” (Thomas Jefferson)

51. Politics and Governance Transparency and accountability Internationalisation and partnership Property as a ‘people’ business New metrics for a new era Leadership and futuring “It is not the answer that enlightens but the question” (Eugène Ionesco)

52. Stage Two: Emergence Emergence “Jazz” “Lords of Misrule” “Wise Counsels” Alternative Futures "All successful men and women are big dreamers. They imagine what their future could be, ideal in every respect, and then they work every day toward their distant vision, that goal or purpose." (Brian Tracy)

53. Dimensions of Uncertainty Global Sustainability Governance Connectivity Responsibility Leadership Stability Security Institutional Influence Regulation Internationalisation Enrolment Collegiality “Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory, tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat” (Sun Tzu)

54. Scenarios “Jazz” Multi-polarity with dynamic reciprocity “Lords of Misrule” Muddling along from decline to disaster “Wise Counsels” Transformation and the rise to maturity “The way you can go – Isn’t the real way.The name you can say – Isn’t the real name” (Lao Tzu)

55. More Sustainable Resilient Wise Counsels Resilience of Global Ecosystem Jazz Lords of Misrule Vulnerable Less Sustainable NOW Regulation Liberation Human Social Systems Critical Dimensions of Uncertainty “In politics, if you want anything said, ask a man; if you want anything done, ask a woman” (Margaret Thatcher)

56. “Jazz”Multi-Polarity with Dynamic Reciprocity Global village of 2030 – mutual give and take World of cultural change and innovation Transparency a leitmotif of past 30 years Diverse players – new performers Global free market – sound legal systems Government most active at local level Mercantilism prevails – sustainability rudimentary "In a time of drastic change it is the learners who inherit the future. The learned usually find themselves equipped to live in a world that no longer exists." (Eric Hoffer)

57. “Lords of Misrule”Muddling Along From Decline to Disaster Familiar world – but failing Modest economic reforms only Ignorance about complexity of planets problems persist Political stalemates on strategic issues Too many interests – no clear leadership Parochialism – partisanship – protectionism Sustainability equals “First Raise Our Growth” “When there is a great cry that something should be done, you can depend on it that something remarkably silly will be done”

58. “Wise Counsels”Transformation And The Rise To Maturity Age of “new powers and new alliances” Radically different world order materializing New leaders and new social institutions Strengthening of government and governance Millennium Goals met – if a little late New economics emerging – resource based Global communications networks and progress “The future is always present, as a promise, a lure and a temptation” (Karl Popper)

59. Convergence Fostering Foresight Convergence Enlightened Leadership Synergy with Academe Cultivating Collegiality Suffusing Sustainability Preferred Vision “The present system of global cooperation is not working sufficiently. [We need to] look at all issues on the global agenda in a systemic, integrated and strategic way. We have to rethink our values; we are living together in a global society with many different cultures. We have to redesign our processes; how do we deal with the issues and challenges on the global agenda?” (Klaus Schwab)

60. The Built Environment: A Preferred Future Be authentic, and never neglect the basics Plan and commit for sustainability and liveability with respect for the public realm Support the creation and maintenance of infrastructure and property assets as a framework for economic development Embrace diversity and commit to social equity Be bold, imaginative and demonstrate leadership “Tomorrows successful leaders will value principles more than they value their company” (Stephen Covey)

61. Strategic Policy Options Fostering Foresight Enlightened Leadership Core Purpose Synergy with Academe Cultivating Collegiality Suffusing Sustainability “Hell is a place where nothing connects with nothing” (Dante)

63. Participants

64. Process

65. Method

66. Implementation“I like the dreams of the future better than the history of the past” (Thomas Jefferson)

68. Establish Clear Goals

69. Connect with Strategic Planning

70. Resolve whether Learning or Planning

71. Decide Target Audience

72. Determine Issues and Topics

73. Pose Pertinent Strategic Question

74. Develop Shared Vision

75. Create Common Language

76. Remember Not Prediction

77. Attend to Organisational Culture“With the past, I have nothing to do; nor with the future. I live now” (Ralph Waldo Emerson)

79. Include Decision-Makers at Outset

80. Take Care in Team Selection

81. Include Diverse Interest Groups/Key Actors

82. Take Testimony from Experts

83. Introduce ‘Remarkable’ People

84. Choose Experienced Facilitators

85. Use Consultants Prudently

86. Select Right Interviewers/Interviewees

87. Find a ‘Champion’“Look before, or you'll find yourself behind” (Benjamin Franklin)

89. Do Not Limit Scope of Exercise

90. Time and Timing All Important

91. Establish Links Elsewhere

92. Be Eclectic

93. Have Breadth and Depth in Foresighting

94. Conduct Pilot Study

95. Hold Induction/Training Workshop

96. Process Should be Continuous and Cumulative

97. Do Not Underestimate Amount of Work

98. Foster Executive Process“The future is a convenient place for dreams” (Anatole France)

100. Make Recommendations Simple and Relevant

101. Demonstrate Feasibility of Recommendations

102. Appreciate Value of Other Informal Results

103. Connect Costs and Benefits

104. Devise Set of Indicators

105. Be Innovative in Presentation

106. Provide Proper Framework for Results

107. Be Aware Success is Hard to Pinpoint

108. Recognise Learning is an Iterative Process

109. Gain Support“Tomorrow will give us something to think about” (Marcus Tullius Cicero)

111. Decide Inductive or Deductive Approach

112. Conduct Environmental Scanning

113. Appreciate Brainstorming at Heart

114. Pay Heed to Strategic Conversations

115. Have Awareness of Value of Metaphor

116. Anecdotes/Aphorisms Helpful

117. Invoke Feeling of Crisis

118. Include Relevant and Compelling Information

119. Arrange Special Forms of Presentation

120. Concentrate on Pivotal Uncertainties“Never let the future disturb you. You will meet it, if you have to, with the same weapons of reason which today arm you against the present” (Marcus Aurelius)

122. Link to Strategy and Outcomes

123. Invocation of Crisis

124. Commitment of Leadership at All Levels

125. Delivering Competitive Advantage“He who controls the present, controls the past. He who controls the past, controls the future” (George Orwell)

127. Convincing Organisations that Long-Term Thinking is Possible

128. Extracting Organisations Away from a Reliance on Facts and Predictions

129. Building and Understanding of What Futures and Foresight Can Accomplish

130. Remembering Why Futures Practitioners Are There“I look to the future because that's where I'm going to spend the rest of my life” (George F. Burns)

131. “Therefore hold to the things which are reliable Look to simplicity; embrace purity Lessen the self: diminish desire” (Tao TeChing)

132. Counter Implementation Games Raising / lowering the level of abstraction Seeking more information / reflection Anti-technique bias – “lets get on with it”! Philosophical, legal, theological viewpoints Saluting the idea, but no commitment Wise owl Flippancy and facetiousness Lie low, rely on inertia Insider knowledge “But we’re still good” “There are those who look at things the way they are and ask why... I dream of things that never were, and ask why not?” (Robert Kennedy)

133. Enlightened Leadership:Providing Global Thought Leadership for the Build Environment and Promoting Authentic and Aware Leadership Qualities Amongst Members "...you better start swimmin' Or you'll sink like a stone. For the times they are a-changin'." (Bob Dylan)