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www.investing-performance.com


Stock Trading Tips
          -
Mind of a Successful
      Trader
Disclaimer
Stock trading is VERY risky.
Learn before you trade.
This is not investment advice.
Consult qualified investment professionals.
Do not trade with more than you can afford
 to lose.
No warranties here, you are on your own.
www.investing-performance.com
When you look at stocks long
 enough, you start to see the
 huge role that expectations
   play in stock valuation.
www.investing-performance.com
Sure you have supply and
  demand, sure you have
fundamental valuation, but
  both of these are greatly
 affected by expectations.
If the market expects great things from
 the stock, the stock sells at a high price
  and it is easy for the company to raise
          money at less expense.
   The company prospers from cheap
 financing and the fundamental value of
 the company increases - even if at first,
       the expectation was wrong.
Let me show you....
If you hold the stock you are
      part of the supply.
If you expect the stock to go
      up, you do not sell.
 If you expect it to go down,
     you are likely to sell.
Conversely, if you are an investor who
might buy the stock, you are part of the
   demand side of the equation. If you
think the stock will soon skyrocket and
everyone knows this, you buy with both
hands, taking all the offers you can find.
 If you believe nobody knows this, and
the stock may decline before rising, you
 hold off buying. This much is obvious.
www.investing-performance.com
Now look at how expectations
   can be used to affect the
  fundamental value of the
          company.
If you are an evil naked short
  seller, you can hire people to
 "bash" the stock with slander,
pushing the price so low that no
matter what the true value of the
company could be, the company
   is unable to finance itself by
    selling equity and so dies.
www.investing-performance.com


In this type of situation, the
 expectation can exceed the
   reality and become the
            reality.
Now we dig deeper
We also have the theory of contrarian
 investing. This says that if everyone
      is bullish, sell. If you are a
 contrarian and everyone is bearish,
   buy. The contrarian prospers by
  doing the opposite of expectations.
           How can this be?
www.investing-performance.com
What you actually have to do
  is to know the underlying
     value and look at the
   expectations that are out
 there and play one against
   the other. How will their
     relationship change?
www.investing-performance.com
If the stock is undervalued,
 and all are bearish, can you
 see expectations shifting to
      bullish some day?
www.investing-performance.com
      If the stock is wildly
   overvalued, no amount of
bullish expectation will make
it a good investment; in fact it
is probably a good short sale.
www.investing-performance.com
As the trick in investing is to
  find the most undervalued
 stock that will soon become
   overvalued, I recommend
looking through areas others
      would not touch for
       overlooked value.
www.investing-performance.com
Some stocks may stay undervalued
 and overlooked forever, so you try
to weed them out. You collect all the
 undervalued stocks and then see if
   there are factors there that will
     cause them to gain positive
            expectations.
www.investing-performance.com
If there are such factors, you
engage in more research and
 find the best of these, study
   the market, and pick your
        entry strategy.
www.investing-performance.com
   Discover more free at
Investing-Performance.com

              or
www.investing-performance.com
Get “How to Find a Home Run
          Stock” Or
  “How to Pick Hot Reverse
     Merger Penny Stocks”
      on Amazon.com
www.investing-performance.com
 John Lux is a former OTC
   Market Maker, venture
capitalist, investment banker
        and attorney.


         Copyright ©John Lux 2011

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Stock trading tips - trading expectations

  • 1. www.investing-performance.com Stock Trading Tips - Mind of a Successful Trader
  • 2. Disclaimer Stock trading is VERY risky. Learn before you trade. This is not investment advice. Consult qualified investment professionals. Do not trade with more than you can afford to lose. No warranties here, you are on your own.
  • 3. www.investing-performance.com When you look at stocks long enough, you start to see the huge role that expectations play in stock valuation.
  • 4. www.investing-performance.com Sure you have supply and demand, sure you have fundamental valuation, but both of these are greatly affected by expectations.
  • 5. If the market expects great things from the stock, the stock sells at a high price and it is easy for the company to raise money at less expense. The company prospers from cheap financing and the fundamental value of the company increases - even if at first, the expectation was wrong.
  • 6. Let me show you.... If you hold the stock you are part of the supply. If you expect the stock to go up, you do not sell. If you expect it to go down, you are likely to sell.
  • 7. Conversely, if you are an investor who might buy the stock, you are part of the demand side of the equation. If you think the stock will soon skyrocket and everyone knows this, you buy with both hands, taking all the offers you can find. If you believe nobody knows this, and the stock may decline before rising, you hold off buying. This much is obvious.
  • 8. www.investing-performance.com Now look at how expectations can be used to affect the fundamental value of the company.
  • 9. If you are an evil naked short seller, you can hire people to "bash" the stock with slander, pushing the price so low that no matter what the true value of the company could be, the company is unable to finance itself by selling equity and so dies.
  • 10. www.investing-performance.com In this type of situation, the expectation can exceed the reality and become the reality.
  • 11. Now we dig deeper We also have the theory of contrarian investing. This says that if everyone is bullish, sell. If you are a contrarian and everyone is bearish, buy. The contrarian prospers by doing the opposite of expectations. How can this be?
  • 12. www.investing-performance.com What you actually have to do is to know the underlying value and look at the expectations that are out there and play one against the other. How will their relationship change?
  • 13. www.investing-performance.com If the stock is undervalued, and all are bearish, can you see expectations shifting to bullish some day?
  • 14. www.investing-performance.com If the stock is wildly overvalued, no amount of bullish expectation will make it a good investment; in fact it is probably a good short sale.
  • 15. www.investing-performance.com As the trick in investing is to find the most undervalued stock that will soon become overvalued, I recommend looking through areas others would not touch for overlooked value.
  • 16. www.investing-performance.com Some stocks may stay undervalued and overlooked forever, so you try to weed them out. You collect all the undervalued stocks and then see if there are factors there that will cause them to gain positive expectations.
  • 17. www.investing-performance.com If there are such factors, you engage in more research and find the best of these, study the market, and pick your entry strategy.
  • 18. www.investing-performance.com Discover more free at Investing-Performance.com or
  • 19. www.investing-performance.com Get “How to Find a Home Run Stock” Or “How to Pick Hot Reverse Merger Penny Stocks” on Amazon.com
  • 20. www.investing-performance.com John Lux is a former OTC Market Maker, venture capitalist, investment banker and attorney. Copyright ©John Lux 2011