Presentation from the WCCA 2011 conference in Brisbane, Australia.

1. Assessing the adaptation of arable farmers to climate change
using DEA and bio-economic modeling
Argyris Kanellopoulos, Joost Wolf, Maryia Mandryk, Pytrik Reidsma,
Ben Schaap and Martin Van Ittersum
Plant Production Systems, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 430, 6700 AK Wageningen, The Netherlands
* Corresponding author : Argyris Kanellopoulos (argyris.kanellopoulos@wur.nl)

2. Aims and needs
o Explore adaptation measures at farm level
o Consider
• Current farm practices
• CC impact in context of changes in technology, markets
• Extreme events in addition to gradual change
• Price volatility
• Variation among individual farms
• Investment decisions

3. Methods: modeling framework
CAPRI 4
1 3 7
Base FSSIM Scenarios
DEA FSSIM
year
1. Outputs = (inputs) 5 6
2. PMP calibration 2
3. Non linear cost function WOFOST ACC
4. Expected price changes
5. Yield changes
6. Extreme events & adaptation
7. Economic , environmental indicators

4. Application: study area
o Study area = Flevoland (the Netherlands)
o Mainly, modern arable and dairy systems
o Data from 85 individual arable farms
(FADN 2001-2006)
o Assess adaptation of arable farmers in a
globalized economy with strong
temperature rise scenario (A1W) towards
2050

5. Application: yield changes
o A1W2050 : Climate change
o A1W2050+: Climate change + technological development
Based on WOFOST

6. Application: extremes and adaptation measures
Extreme events:
o Dry conditions in spring and summer
o Prolonged wet conditions in spring
Based on ACC

7. Results: Inputs
% change from current situation
Without tech. change With tech. change

8. Results: Outputs
% change from current situation
Without tech. change With tech. change
(tons)
(tons)
(tons)
(tons)
(€)
(€)
(€)
(€)

9. Results: diffusion of adaptation strategies

10. Discussion and Conclusions
o Prices and expected yield changes (because of increased CO2
concentration and earlier sowing dates) are the most important driving
factors
o Extreme events pose risks but have relatively low effect on average
yields and input levels
o Existence of Improved varieties compete adoption of other adaptation
strategies
o Adaptation measures are more likely to be adopted by large farmers
(capital availability)
o In general, farmers in Flevoland are currently technically efficient.