1. Page 1
YOUR LOGO
Scenario Analysis
Strategic Planning / Scenario Funnel
Time
Present
Observablequantity
Trendscenario
Worse Case
Best Case
a
Disturbance
Decision Point
A
B
b
2. Page 2
YOUR LOGO
Scenario Analysis
Procedure
Scenario
technique
This is a placeholder text.
All words can be replaced
with your own.
This is a placeholder text.
All words can be replaced
with your own.
This is a placeholder text.
This is a placeholder text.
All words can be replaced
with your own.
This is a placeholder text.
All words can be replaced
with your own.
3. Page 3
YOUR LOGO
Scenario Analysis
Phase model
InterpretationInterpretation55
44 Development and Interpretation of phasesDevelopment and Interpretation of phases
33 Trend projection and identification of scenariosTrend projection and identification of scenarios
22 Effects AnalysisEffects Analysis
11 Tasks and problem analysis
4. Page 4
YOUR LOGO
Scenario Analysis
Influencing
Main opportunitiesMain opportunities
…
…
…
…
…
…
Main RisksMain Risks
…
…
…
…
…
…
Strategic approaches to finding solutionsStrategic approaches to finding solutions
The text demonstrates how your own text will look when you replace the placeholder text.
The text that you insert will retain the same style and format as the placeholder text.
The text demonstrates how your own text will look when you replace the placeholder text.
The text that you insert will retain the same style and format as the placeholder text.
Proposals to implementProposals to implement
The text demonstrates how your own text will look when you replace the placeholder text.
The text that you insert will retain the same style and format as the placeholder text.
The text demonstrates how your own text will look when you replace the placeholder text.
The text that you insert will retain the same style and format as the placeholder text.
5. Page 5
YOUR LOGO
Scenario Analysis
Scenario Scenario Funnel + Positioning
Present Short time Medium time Long time
Trend scenario
Disturbance
Decision Point
a
b
A1
B1
A2
B2
I
IV
II
III
+ Case
- Case
This is a placeholder text.
All words can be replaced
with your own.
This is a placeholder text.
All words can be replaced
with your own.
This is a place
for own text.
6. Page 6
YOUR LOGO
Present Short time Medium time Long time
Trend scenario
Disturbance
Decision Point
This is a placeholder text.
All words can be replaced
with your own.
This is a placeholder text.
All words can be replaced
with your own.
This is a place
for own text.
a
b
A1
B1
A2
B2
I
IV
II
III
+ Case
- Case
Scenario Analysis
Exponential Scenario Funnel
7. Page 7
YOUR LOGO
Scenario Analysis
2 Scenarios
Scenario AScenario A
This is a placeholder text.
This text can be replaced with your
own text. All phrases can be replaced
with your own text.
This is a placeholder text.
This is a placeholder text.
This text can be replaced with your
own text. All phrases can be replaced
with your own text.
This is a placeholder text.
Scenario BScenario B
This is a placeholder text.
This text can be replaced with your
own text. All phrases can be replaced
with your own text.
This is a placeholder text.
This is a placeholder text.
This text can be replaced with your
own text. All phrases can be replaced
with your own text.
This is a placeholder text.
Disturbance
Decision Point
a
A
Bb
Time
Observablequantity
Present
Trendscenario
Best case
Worse case
8. Page 8
YOUR LOGO
Scenario Analysis
Future prospects
Disturbance
Decision Point
Present Short time Medium time Long time
This is a
placeholder text.
All words can be
replaced with
your own.
All words can
be replaced
with your own.
This is a placeholder
text.
Trendscenario
9. Page 9
YOUR LOGO
Scenario Analysis
3 Scenarios in a scenario funnel
Positive extreme scenarioPositive extreme scenario
This is a placeholder text.
All words can be replaced with your own.
This is a placeholder text.
All words can be replaced with your own.
Trend scenarioTrend scenario
This is a placeholder text. This is a placeholder text.
Negative extreme scenarioNegative extreme scenario
This is a placeholder text.
All words can be replaced with your own.
This is a placeholder text.
All words can be replaced with your own.
5-10 11-20 >20
Trendscenario
Years
+ Case
- Case
Impact of decisions
Disturbance
Decision Point
10. Page 10
YOUR LOGO
Scenario Analysis
Visions, utopias and future plans
Present
Observablequantity
Past Future
Empirical data,
past performance
Scenario Driver
Scenario A
Scenario B
Scenario C
Scenario D
Scenario E
Discontinuity
11. Page 11
YOUR LOGO
Scenario Analysis
Case Studies
Best caseBest case
…
…
…
…
…
…
Worse caseWorse case
…
…
…
…
…
…
Resulting consequencesResulting consequences
The text demonstrates how your own text will look when you replace the placeholder text.
The text that you insert will retain the same style and format as the placeholder text.
The text demonstrates how your own text will look when you replace the placeholder text.
The text that you insert will retain the same style and format as the placeholder text.
InfluencesInfluences
The text demonstrates how your own text will look when you replace the placeholder text.
The text that you insert will retain the same style and format as the placeholder text.
The text demonstrates how your own text will look when you replace the placeholder text.
The text that you insert will retain the same style and format as the placeholder text.
12. Page 12
YOUR LOGO
Scenario Analysis
Risk-Matrix
Slightly
<20.000 €
Medium
<100.000 €
More
<500.000 €
High
<1.000.000 €
Existential
<5.000.000 €
Damage level
unable
< 1%
unlikely
< 3%
probably
< 8%
repeatedly
< 15%
frequently
< 20%
Probability
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX