This presentation by the University of Piraeus discusses crisis management in the shipping industry. It notes that the current industry downturn is driven by high supply growth and may last until supply and demand are back in equilibrium in 2013 or beyond. Many shipping companies have no equity left due to declining asset values and insufficient charter rates to cover costs. The presentation examines options for companies including paying down debt, selling assets, and restructuring with banks. It also looks at sources of funding such as private equity and capital markets. In conclusion, it emphasizes the importance of maintaining cash flow during the difficult market conditions.
2. Slide 2
This presentation contains certain statements that may be deemed to be
“forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Securities Acts. Forward-
looking statements reflect management's current views with respect to future
events and financial performance and may include statements concerning plans,
objectives, goals, strategies, future events or performance and underlying
assumptions and other statements, which are other than statements of historic
facts. The forward-looking statements in this presentation are based upon
various assumptions, many of which are based, in turn, upon further assumptions,
including without limitation, managements' examination of historical operating
trends, data contained in our records and other data available from third parties.
Although Paragon Shipping Inc. believes that these assumptions were reasonable
when made, because these assumptions are inherently subject to significant
uncertainties and contingencies which are difficult or impossible to predict and
are beyond our control, Paragon Shipping Inc. can not assure you that it will
achieve or accomplish these expectations, beliefs or projections. Important
factors that, in our view, could cause actual results to differ materially from
those discussed in the forward-looking statements include the strength of the
world economies and currencies, general market conditions, including changes in
charter hire rates and vessel values, changes in demand that may affect
attitudes of time charterers to scheduled and unscheduled drydockings, changes
in our vessel operating expenses, including drydocking, crewing and insurance
costs, or actions taken by regulatory authorities, ability of our counterparties to
perform these obligations under sales agreements and charter contracts on a
timely basis, potential liability from future litigation, domestic and international
political conditions, potential disruption of shipping routes due to accidents and
political events or acts by terrorists. Risks and uncertainties are further
described in reports filed by Paragon Shipping Inc. with the Securities and
Exchange Commission.
Forward Looking
Statements
5. Slide 5
USDperDay
Source: Clarkson’s Research
History of Drybulk Shipping
Pre 2003Pre 2003
Less Volatility
Post 2003Post 2003
More Volatility
USDMillion
High: $92 Mil.
Low: $18 Mil.
High: $17,400
Low: $4,200
High: $86,200
Low: $3,500
High: $23 Mil.
Low: $14 Mil.
7. Slide 7
Drivers of the Downturn
Demand: Transportation of Drybulk Cargoes
Supply: Available tonnage
Source: Clarkson’s Research
1995 – 1999 Crisis (Demand Driven) 2009 – 2013 ? Crisis (Supply Driven)
1995 – 1999
Average Fleet
Growth
3.8% p.a. vs 5.2% CAGR since 1990
Average DB
Trade Growth
2.2% p.a. vs 4.1% CAGR since
1990
2009 – 2013 ?
Average Fleet
Growth
11.4% p.a. vs 5.2% CAGR since
1990
Average DB
Trade Growth
5.4% p.a. vs 4.1% CAGR since 1990
8. Slide 8
Current Fleet vs Current Orderbook
Source: Clarkson’s Research
Drybulk orderbook is reducing – currently stands at 18% of existing fleet
Outstanding Orderbook by Vessel Type Global Fleet vs Orderbook
MillionDwt
MillionDwt
71 m
37 m
16 m
9. Slide 9
Demand & Supply Equilibrium
Net Fleet Growth is expected to be higher than required through 2013 inclusive
Source: Clarkson’s Research
TradeinMillion
Tonnes
14.4
%
10.2
%
2.9
%
8.6
%
4.9
%
16.9
%
16.9
%
4.8
%
1.5
%
5.7
%
10. Slide 10
Source: Clarkson’s Research
5 Year Old Panamax ValueUSDMillion
High: $23 Mil.
Low: $14 Mil.
High: $92 Mil.
Low: $18 Mil.
Pre 2003Pre 2003
Less Volatility
Post 2003Post 2003
More Volatility
B
A
11. Slide 11
A Sample of 30 US-Listed Shipping Companies as an example:
Dry Tankers Container Total
Companies in Sample 14 11 5 30
Negative Charter-Free NAV 4 2 3 9
% of Total 29% 18% 60% 30%
Net Debt/Asset Values Charter-Free 85.9% 84.3% 113.1% 90.0%
Total Debt/EBITDA (2013 est.) 10.8x 10.0x 6.3x 9.7x
Many shipping companies have NO equity left due to declining asset values…
…and insufficient charter coverage for 2013 and beyond to weather declining rates
Bank covenants related to earnings will continue to be breached
Causing many companies to be forced to concentrate on survival not growth
Shipping Companies Are Breaching Covenants
Source: Seaborne Capital Advisors
12. Slide 12
Assumes: Loan repayment profile 15 years of age, interest rate 5%, TVOE $6,000 per day
5 Year Old Panamax
DailyBreakevenPoint
(USDThousands)
Outstanding Loan
(USD Million)
Unable to pay
Interest
Expenses
Current 1 Yr TC Rate $8,000
Unable to pay
Debt
Repayments
13. Slide 13
Matching “WANT” with “CAN”
• Failure unless Market improves immediately
Use surplus cash flow to:
• Pay down debt
• Possibly buy
Negative Equity & Negative Cash Flow
Negative Equity & Positive Cash Flow
Positive Equity & Negative Cash Flow
Positive Equity & Positive Cash Flow
Support cash flow by:
• Selling assets
• Restructure with banks
• All options available
16. Slide 16
Private Equity
Private equity participation in shipping has been significant in the last decade
Transactions have taken place through a variety of structures
More than $17 billion of known private equity investments since 2002
US$Million
Source: Credit Suisse Research
17. Slide 17
10 public equity deals in the USA in 2013 YTD
Over $10 billion raised by shipping companies since 2005
Source: Seaborne Capital Advisors
(1)Shipping IPOs and Follow On offerings refer to ocean-going shipping U.S registered public
offerings
(2)Deal proceeds include the exercise of the overallotment when applicable
Equity Offerings (1) , (2)
- US Shipping Companies
Capital Markets
Bond Issues - Shipping Companies Globally
US$Million
US$Million
18. Slide 18
Bank Lending to Shipping
Source: Dealogic, ABN AMRO
Global Shipping Syndicated Loans Tenor of Loans
European banking dominated by Sovereign debt crisis, regulations & higher funding costs
Banks exiting ship finance or decreasing lending activity & shortening loan tenors
22. Slide 22
Paragon Shipping Inc. - Operating Fleet
Name & Type DWT Year Built Country of Build Date Acquired
Panamax Fleet
Calm Seas 74,047 1999 Japan December 2006
Deep Seas 72,891 1999 Korea December 2006
Kind Seas 72,493 1999 Japan December 2006
Pearl Seas 74,483 2006 China August 2007
Diamond Seas 74,274 2001 Japan September 2007
Coral Seas 74,477 2006 China November 2007
Golden Seas 74,475 2006 China December 2007
Dream Seas 75,151 2009 China July 2010
Supramax Fleet
Sapphire Seas 53,702 2005 China August 2007
Friendly Seas 58,779 2008 China August 2008
Handysize Fleet
Prosperous Seas 37,293 2012 China May 2012
Precious Seas 37.205 2012 China June 2012
Priceless Seas 37,202 2013 China January 2013
TOTAL 816,472
23. Slide 23
Paragon Shipping Inc. - Newbuilding
Program
Hull No. & Type DWT / TEU Country of Build Expected Delivery
Drybulk Handysize
625 (Proud Seas) 37,200 China Q4 2013
TOTAL 37,200
Containerships
656 4,800 China Q2 2014
657 4,800 China Q2 2014
TOTAL 9,600
24. Slide 24
Paragon Shipping Inc. - Fleet Employment
(1) Deep Seas: Charterers have the option to extend the charter agreement for an additional 11 to 13 months at $14,000 per day
(2) Coral Seas: Charterers have the option to extend the charter agreement for an additional 11 to 13 months at $14,500 per day
(3) Golden Seas: Charterers have the option to extend the charter agreement for an additional 11 to 13 months at $13,000 plus 50/50
profit share
(4) Prosperous Seas & Precious Seas: Charterers have the option to extend the charter agreement for an additional 11 to 14 months at
$15,500 per day
VESSEL CHARTERER GROSS HIRE DURATION T/C COMMENCED T/C EXPIRES
PANAMAX FLEET
Calm Seas Intermare Transport $ 11,800 19-24 Months Mar-12 Oct-13 / Mar-14
$ 11,000 plus 50/50 Profit Share 33-36 Months Oct-11 Jul-14 / Oct-14
$ 14,000 11-13 Months (1)
Kind Seas Spot
Pearl Seas Cargill International $ 12,125 22-25 Months Dec-11 Sep-13 / Jan-14
Diamond Seas Spot
$ 12,000 23-25 Months Jan-12 Dec-13 / Mar-14
$ 14,500 11-13 Months (2)
$ 12,250 22-25 Months Nov-11 Sep-13 / Dec-13
$ 13,000 plus 50/50 Profit Share 11-13 Months (3)
Dream Seas Intermare Transport $ 20,000 35-37 Months Jul-10 May-13 / Aug-13
SUPRAMAX FLEET
Sapphire Seas Nordic Bulk Carriers A/S $ 11,100 About 25 Days Apr-13 Jun-13
Friendly Seas Western Bulk Carriers $ 10,700 18-24 Months Feb-12 Aug-13 / Feb-14
HANDYSIZE FLEET
$ 12,125 23-26 Months May-12 Mar-14 / Jul-14
$ 15,500 11-14 Months (4)
$ 12,125 23-26 Months Jun-12 May-14 / Sep-14
$ 15,500 11-14 Months (4)
Priceless Seas Phaethon International $ 12,150 About 40 Days May-13 Jun-13 / Jul-13
Prosperous Seas
Precious Seas
Cargill International
Cargill International
Golden Seas Mansel (Vitol S.A.)
Coral Seas
PARAGON FLEET EMPLOYMENT
Deep Seas Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley