Haiti Chile Earthquake

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Department of State
Disaster Task Force

Prepared for THE SECRETARY OF STATE

Geneva Summit 2010

|T he Depa r tment of Sta te |

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Preface
The National Security Council (NSC) has directed that the Department of State,
a member of the Disaster Task Force (DTF), to prepare a briefing book for the Secretary
of State (SecState) in preparation for the upcoming Geneva Summit. The DTF is to
project out to the end of 2011. The Department of State (DOS) is to address the
following issues in the tasking below. The tasking is not inclusive, and is subject to
change as circumstances dictate.

Tasking

In mid-May 2010 the Secretary of State (SECSTATE) will attend a special UN
meeting in Geneva, which will address the international response to actual and potential
natural and man-made disasters. The National Security Council (NSC) has directed that
a dedicated Disaster Task Force (DTF) be established to provide current intelligence
and status reports, both on current international issues and on potential domestic
problems, to include possible related terrorist threats. The DTF consists of teams from
Department of Defense (DOD), Department of State (DOS), Department of Homeland
Security (DHS), the Counter Terrorism Center (CTC), and a “red team” to focus on
vulnerabilities both in the US and abroad. Teams have been tasked with preparing the
SECSTATE’s Briefing Books on these issues Of particular importance will be
providing analysis of the broad range of responses to recent humanitarian disasters,
including Haiti, Chile, Swine Flu; US preparedness for similar events; and terrorist
capabilities and intentions of inciting humanitarian crises; In addition to certain
assigned taskings, analysts will determine, through research, additional important topics
that may engage the SECSTATE during this meeting.

Current Issue

The oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico is the current issue that the DOS is preparing
for the SECSTATE.


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Department of State
Disaster TASK Force

Overall Forecast


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Overall Forecast

Executive Summary:
After ten weeks of open source research and analysis of the 12 January 2010 Haiti
earthquake, it is highly likely that Haiti will remain unstable due to corruption within
the Government of Haiti (GOH) a lack of coordination and communication between
foreign powers and the GOH in the relief and reconstruction efforts. This estimate is
due to Haiti’s unstable government, which is riddled with corruption. The US military is
seen as the lead player in the relief and reconstruction efforts in Haiti. With the
departure of the US military on 1 June, the Haitian populace fears that humanitarian
efforts and security will drastically decrease. There is large distrust between the Haitian
people and the GOH. René Préval, the President of Haiti, is rapidly becoming unpopular
among the Haitian people due to his perceived corruption and lack of ability to rebuild
Haiti. The combination of these issues contributes to the unlikelihood that the GOH will
succeed in rebuilding its country.

Discussion:
As the date for US military withdrawal from Haiti draws near, displaced Haitians
worry that the GOH lacks the ability to control its internal affairs and is in a
permanent state of instability. There is a lack of coordination and communication
between the US, UN, NGOs and the GOH, reconstruction and relief efforts remain
inefficient. With President René Préval postponing presidential and legislative
elections in the country, Haitians are becoming increasingly dissatisfied with the
GOH. Groups that once supported Haitian President René Préval are arming
themselves against the GOH, putting the country in danger of further instability and
political violence. Préval’s declining legitimacy and the lack of any obvious
successor for a smooth handover of political power is further destabilizing the
country.

According to NGOs and the UN, armed gangs and displaced Haitians continue to
commit violence against civilians. In some instances these gangs have supplanted the
GOH in certain neighborhoods that are absent of humanitarian aid and are now in
control. With security issues continuing to mount in Haiti, experts suggest that it is
inevitable that the US military will redeploy to Haiti. The date for US military
disengagement could change should a new crisis emerge, especially with so many
Haitians still homeless as the rainy season looms. After the US military forces
withdraw from Haiti on 1 June, the United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti
(MINUSTAH) will provide overall security within Haiti. However, the Haitian
National Police, with the oversight of MINUSTAH, is to provide security within
Port-Au-Prince, the capital city. However, the GOH police and military forces are
under-strength for the size of the population, under-resourced, poorly trained and
riddled with corruption.


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The rainy season that officially began on 1 May, has displaced several Haitians from
certain tent camps. With a limited amount of time along with inadequate command
and control of the situation, the GOH is unable to relocate Haitians to designated
camps outside the capital city. The GOHs lack of control and legitimacy among
displaced Haitians could potentially force the US to redeploy the US military back to
Haiti.

James E. Gallagher

Max Korczyk

Shannon Mae Connors


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Key Findings

USG Likely To Takeover Oil Slick Relief Efforts In The Gulf Of Mexico
Due to BPs recently unsuccessful efforts to contain the oil slick, the USG is likely to
take over relief operations in the Gulf of Mexico. With a highly sophisticated industry
that has large levels of revenues and research capacity, the USG continues to criticize
BP for not doing enough. Furthermore, BP is uncertain as to when the leaking well will
ultimately be plugged.1 BP’s most recent effort to stop the oil slick failed, and the
leaking well continues to hit the gulf coast region environmentally and economically.2
US legislators remain frustrated that the problem has not been fixed yet a month after
the deepwater horizon rig exploded. However, BP continues to openly state that they
will pay all expenditures and compensations.

Haiti: Post Earthquake Security Highly Likely To Be An Ongoing Issue

It is highly unlikely that the Government of Haiti (GOH) will be able to provide long
term security within their country. GOH police and military forces are under-strength
for the size of the population, under-resourced, poorly trained and riddled with
corruption. A sudden withdrawal of US and MINUSTAH forces would further
destabilize the country. Additionally, with the escape of 4000 prisoners from the
national prison, crime and gang activity is expected to increase, especially around the
distribution stations of food, water and medical aid.

Inefficient GOH Response Highly Likely Due To Corruption:

The massive loss of human life from the Haiti quake is highly likely due to corruption
and the lack of preparedness that comes with it. Due to corruption within the
Government of Haiti (GOH) there was a lack of preparedness in building codes and
initial response. Compared to Chile, Haiti had nonexistent building codes that lead to
structures that would easily topple. Furthermore, Haiti lacks the strong central
government that Chile posses. Unlike Chile who relied on their strong central
government for assistance, Haiti relied on external intervention.


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Elections in Haiti Needed for Change

In order to inhibit the current political instability within Haiti, it is likely the 2010
election will take place. For without the upcoming elections the people of Haiti will
continue to mistrust the Haitian government.

Haitians Increasingly Unlikely to Support GOH Lead Reconstruction

It is highly unlikely the Haitian populace will strongly support GOH lead reconstruction
efforts. Haitians perceive that reconstruction money coming into Haiti as benefiting the
country's wealthy minority rather than the vast mass of quake victims. Popular support
for Haitian President René Préval is dropping considerably, and an impending political
crisis is rapidly corroding the legitimacy in the Préval government.

Successful Reconstruction Unlikely After US Military Disengages From
Haiti

Successful humanitarian, reconstruction, and security efforts are unlikely to succeed in
Haiti after the US military withdraws from the country on 1 June. UN, MINUSTAH,
GOH and NGOs are collectively uncoordinated and highly inefficient in carrying out
routine tasks. However, a contingency of 500 US reserves and a small USAID team
offer a sense of hope among the Haitian populace.

GOH/UN Cooperation With NGOs Unlikely

It is unlikely that relief action will be carried out effectively due to lack of coordination
and communication between NGOs, the UN and GOH. Nearly 10,000 NGOs are
operating in Haiti alongside the UN and US military. Communication and meetings
with relief coordinators is almost impossible because of mass un-organization due to
stresses over leadership and where certain organizations can or cannot operate. This is
causing the NGOs and GOH/UN to give more aid than is necessary resulting in Haiti
becoming too dependent on foreign aid.


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Short-term Reconstruction Not Likely To Start Soon

It is likely that the short-term reconstruction in Haiti will not begin until the end of the
Atlantic hurricane season towards the end of November 2010. In order for the short-
term reconstruction begins humanitarian efforts in Haiti need to end. The 2010
hurricane season has been forecasted to be above-average and may cause further
damage and heighten humanitarian need.

Long-Term Reconstruction Unlikely Effective Without Effective
Leadership

If Haiti does not set up an effective leadership it is unlikely that long-term
reconstruction and stabilization will improve the state. Due to disregard in the past the
international community plans to observe long- term reconstruction that is predicted to
last for 10 years fallowing 18 months of short-term reconstruction. The Haitian state
cannot recover on its own due to extreme structural vulnerability. Haitian leaders will
require the help of the UN and international organizations to help create an effective
leadership. In addition the UN will continue to focus on humanitarian assistance to
further a stabilize Haiti.

Haiti’s January Shake-Up Fueling Further Corruption

Due to recent natural and man-made disasters it is highly likely that the use of Web 2.0
is playing a pivotal role in current and future communication updates and future
information collection. Social media and social networking platforms are increasing in
popularity and use. Recent major emergencies resulted in official and press reporting
utilization of Web 2.0 tools to support consequence management operations. Web 2.0 is
a decision support tool that provides decision makers the ability to act in real-time/ near
real-time there by reducing the reaction time after the disaster.

Web 2.0 Likely Crucial in Future Disaster Information Dissemination



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Rainy Season Likely to Further Weaken GOH

The rainy season is likely to further weaken the government of Haiti (GOH) as it
continues to recover from the January earthquake. The GOH is working to improve and
develop temporary housing. However, the GOH could face another disaster due to
ineffective government, mistrust among the GOH and people, and poor conditions of
the relocation camps.

US Efforts Likely To Continue After US military Pull-Out

US relief efforts in Haiti will likely continue after the pull-out of remaining military
forces. When 1 June comes around, the US will be pulling out the remaining military
forces in Haiti. Many Haitians fear that the US involvement will cease once this
happens. That is not the case as President Obama has pledge full support towards Haiti
and its new beginning. Efforts of the USG after the military pull-out will include the
National Guard from a number of US states, financial support and relief, and political
support.

US Relief Efforts Key in Helping Haiti

It likely that the US will continue to aid and supervise the situation in Haiti until the
GOH is ready to take control of their homeland. After Haiti was hit by an earthquake in
January, the international community stepped up and sent relief aid packages to save the
tiny island nation. The US went even further by sending its military force, economic
aid, and political officials to help reestablish some level of control for the Government
of Haiti (GOH).


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Elections in Haiti Likely will Help Stability

Haiti’s Presidency over the years has been in turmoil for a long time. With its history of
coups and inadequate leadership through the years, the government of Haiti faces
instability and corruption within its political levels. Due to the corruption and lack of
support from the Haitian populace, it is likely that elections will take place in Haiti to
bring stability to the country.

US Forces Highly Likely to Return to Haiti

Due to the upcoming hurricane season and political instability, it is highly likely that the
US will redeploy into Haiti. The US has aided Haiti through military and financial
support. With the June 1 US withdraw of military forces fast approaching, the GOH will
be led by the MINUSTAH and the National Haitian Police force, which will further
press instability throughout the country.

US Efforts Likely to Continue after Pull-Out

Despite the US military pull out of Haiti on June 1st, it is likely US forces will continue
efforts in Haiti. With certain military forces in Haiti providing humanitarian efforts,
continuation of financial support, and political support, US efforts towards Haiti will
bring Haiti closer to a sense of stability.


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Table of Contents

T of Contents
PREFACE AND TASKING ....................................................................................................... 1
OVERALL FORECAST ........................................................................................................... 3
KEY FINDINGS ................................................................................................................... 5
CURRENT ISSUE ............................................................................................................. 13
SECURITY...................................................................................................................... 16
HAITI: POST EARTHQUAKE SECURITY HIGHLY LIKELY TO BE AN ONGOING ISSUE .................................................. 16
SUCCESSFUL RECONSTRUCTION UNLIKELY AFTER US MILITARY DISENGAGES FROM HAITI ..................................... 18
US RELIEF EFFORTS KEY IN HELPING HAITI ................................................................................................. 20

CORRUPTION................................................................................................................ 21
HAITI’S JANUARY SHAKE-UP FUELING FURTHER CORRUPTION ......................................................................... 22
INEFFICIENT GOH RESPONSE HIGHLY LIKELY DUE TO CORRUPTION .................................................................. 23
ELECTIONS IN HAITI LIKELY WILL HELP STABILITY .......................................................................................... 25

HAITI: SHORT, MID AND LONG TERM .................................................................................. 26
RAINY SEASON LIKELY TO FURTHER WEAKEN GOH ...................................................................................... 27
GOH/UN COOPERATION WITH NGOS UNLIKELY ........................................................................................ 28
SHORT-TERM RECONSTRUCTION NOT LIKELY TO START SOON ........................................................................ 29
HAITIANS INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY TO SUPPORT GOH LEAD RECONSTRUCTION ................................................... 30
US MILITARY FORCES LIKELY TO RETURN TO HAITI ....................................................................................... 32
LONG-TERM RECONSTRUCTION LIKELY TO IMPROVE HAITI.............................................................................. 33
WEB 2.0 LIKELY CRUCIAL IN FUTURE DISASTER INFORMATION DISSEMINATION ................................................... 34
US EFFORTS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AFTER US MILITARY PULL-OUT ................................................................... 35

LINK CHART (HAITI NODE)................................................................................................. 36

SCENE SETTER ................................................................................................................. 37
EDMUND MULET: SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE AND HEAD OF MINUSTAH .......................................................... 38
SIMEON TROMBITAS: COMMANDING GENERAL, JTF-H ................................................................................. 40
SIR JOHN HOLMES: DIRECTOR OF HUMANITARIAN AFFAIRS AND EMERGENCY RELIEF COORDINATOR ....................... 42

POPULATION MOVEMENT WITHIN HAITI............................................................................... 45
LINK CHART (HAITI NODE)................................................................................................. 47
HUMANITARIAN AID WITHIN HAITI ..................................................................................... 49
WHO HAITIANS THINK SHOULD CARRY OUT RECONSTRUCTION EFFORTS ..................................... 51
LOCATIONS OF CONGESTED CAMPS IN PORT-AU-PRINCE.......................................................... 51
LOCATIONS OF WFP FOOD DISTRIBUTION CNETERS IN PORT-AU-PRINCE .................................... 53
LOCATIONS OF THE OIL SLICK IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ............................................................. 55


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CONTACT INFORMATION ................................................................................................... 57
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...................................................................................................... 59
IMAGERY SOURCING......................................................................................................... 61
ENDNOTES ..................................................................................................................... 63


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Department of State
Disaster TASK Force

Current Issue: Gulf Coast Oil Slick


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USG Likely To Takeover Oil Slick Relief Efforts In The Gulf Of
Mexico

Executive Summary:
Due to BPs recently unsuccessful efforts to contain the oil slick, the USG is likely to
take over relief operations in the Gulf of Mexico. With a highly sophisticated industry
that has large levels of revenues and research capacity, the USG continues to criticize
BP for not doing enough. Furthermore, BP is uncertain as to when the leaking well will
ultimately be plugged.3 BP’s most recent effort to stop the oil slick failed, and the
leaking well continues to hit the gulf coast region environmentally and economically. 4
US legislators remain frustrated that the problem has not been fixed yet a month after
the deepwater horizon rig exploded. However, BP continues to openly state that they
will pay all expenditures and compensations.

Discussion:
BP's latest effort to contain the
massive oil slick by placing a
riser insertion (a long tube) into
the leaking well has failed.5 BP is
trying again to fit the riser
insertion back into the well. 6 BP
continues to pump chemical
dispersants at the leak, but this
method is showing little success.
Fig 1: BP’s Deepwater Horizon rig after the
US legislators continue to ask BP
initial explosion
why they haven’t done more.7 US
legislators are frustrated that BP, considered to be a sophisticated company, is using
unsophisticated methods to fix a complicated problem. 8 Furthermore, the daily cost
of the oil slick is now running at USD 42 million. 9 As BP’s solutions continue to fail,
the company is asking for more USG intervention. 10 The USG states that it expects
the situation to worsen. 11

The international community has not spoken out about the oil slick. Cuba, a nation
which is expected to be affected by the oil slick, refused to comment on the slick's
possible threat to their country.12 The oil slick is not expected to land in Mexico.
However, the oil slick will have long term implications for the fishing industries of
all gulf coast nations. 13


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Source Reliability: Low
Analytical Confidence: Medium

Analytic Confidence: Analytical confidence is medium. The sources used are
current, but not very reliable.

James E. Gallagher


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Department of State
Disaster TASK Force

Haitian Security


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Haiti: Post Earthquake Security Highly Likely To Be An
Ongoing Issue

Executive Summary:
It is highly unlikely that the Government of Haiti (GOH) will be able to provide long
term security within their country. GOH police are under-strength for the size of the
population, under-resourced, poorly trained and riddled with corruption. A sudden
withdrawal of US and MINUSTAH forces would further destabilize the country.
Additionally, with the escape of 4000 prisoners from the national prison, crime and
gang activity is expected to increase, especially around the distribution stations of food,
water and medical aid.14

Discussion:
The GOH’s role in reconstruction and relief efforts
continues to be minimal at best. Displaced Haitians
are plagued by a lack of security, theft, violence, rape
and gang activity around the tent cities in Port-Au-
Prince.15 Currently, security is provided chiefly by
US forces and MINUSTAH, with a small detachment
of GOH forces.16 Haitians see GOH forces as
inadequate and inefficient.17 Haitians express
concerns that once US forces depart on 1 June, GOH
forces will harass and abuse displaced Haitians. The
presence of international military forces has been
positive, yet Haitians perceive that the focus of Fig 2: UN peacekeeping
international military forces have concentrated on the soldier in Haiti
protection of humanitarian workers rather than on Haitians who are at greatest risk
from danger.18 However, there has been a sharp increase in the number of Ransoms
throughout the country. 19 Although International forces are training Haitian forces,
GOH forces remain inadequately trained and equipped.20 Since the January 2010
earthquake, the total number of UN security forces on the ground continues to be at
8,940 troops, while the police force is currently at 3,711.21

Source Reliability: High



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Analytic Confidence: Analytic confidence is medium due to a large amount of
evidence supporting the estimate. Source reliability is high because the information is
derived from USG, UM and Janes Sentinel.

James E. Gallagher


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Successful Reconstruction Unlikely After US Military
Disengages From Haiti

Executive Summary:
Successful humanitarian, reconstruction, and security efforts are unlikely to succeed in
Haiti after the US military withdraws from the country on 1 June. UN, MINUSTAH,
GOH and NGOs are collectively uncoordinated and highly inefficient in carrying out
routine tasks. However, a contingency of 500 US reserves and a small USAID team
offer a sense of hope among the Haitian populace.

Discussion:
As the date for US military
withdrawal from Haiti draws near,
displaced Haitians worry that the
Government of Haiti (GOH) lacks
the ability to control its internal
affairs and is in a permanent state of
instability. 22 According to NGOs
and the UN, armed gangs in Haiti
continue to commit violence against
civilians. In some instances these Fig 3: Brazilian MINUSTAH troops breaching a
gangs have supplanted the GOH in house
certain neighborhoods and are now
in control.23 In the absence of NGOs or local officials, gangs hold authority within
slum areas and smaller tent camps. Increasingly, orphans are turning towards gangs
for security. 24 Doctors Without Borders state there has been a recent spike in the
number of gunshot victims. 25 Violence is now increasing even while US military
forces are operating in Haiti. Once US forces depart, the problem is expected to
further deteriorate.

With security issues continuing to mount in Haiti, experts suggest that it is inevitable
that the US military will have to redeploy to Haiti. 26 US efforts in Haiti after 1 June
will be led by USAID personnel and 500 guardsmen, focusing on building the
capacity of the GOH, which includes expanding its sphere of control into areas where
lawlessness prevails. 27

The date for US military disengagement could change should a new crisis emerge,
especially with so many Haitians still homeless as the rainy season looms.

Source Reliability: Medium
Analytical Confidence: High


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Analytic Confidence: Analytic confidence is high due to a large amount of sources
that support the estimate. The main source is derived from an NGO (Refugee
International). The remaining sources are not as credible but support the estimate.

James E. Gallagher


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US Relief Efforts Key in Helping Haiti

Executive Summary:
It is likely the US will continue to aid and supervise the situation in Haiti until the
government of Haiti (GOH) is established and stabilized. USG efforts will be essential
towards Haiti, to regain the sense of being a normal country. After Haiti was hit by an
earthquake in January, the international community stepped up and sent relief aid
packages to save the tiny island nation. The United States went even further by sending
its military force, economic aid, and political officials to help reestablish some level of
control for the GOH.

Discussion:
Once the Haitians were overwhelmed by the destruction from the earthquake, the US
sent down military personal in order to help in the humanitarian efforts. The United
States Government (USG) deployed 22,000 personnel, including 7,000 land-based
troops, with the remainder operating aboard 58 aircraft and 15 nearby vessels in and
around Haiti. 28 As the US is pulling out the remaining troops, it will leave 500
National Guard forces to help rebuild Haiti. 29 US officials have stated that they are
not looking to take over Haiti. The US forces are working with United Nations
MINUSTAH personal in Haiti to help conduct recovery and relief efforts and
logistics and command activities.30

The US responded quickly to the aftermath of the Haitian earthquake. The USG sent
financial aid packages to Haiti in order to support Haiti’s recovery and reconstruction
campaign. At the Donors Conference in March, the USG pledged 1.15 billion United
States Dollars (USD) to Haiti, to support the efforts in rebuilding Haiti. 31 The US has
approved legislation that will clear any debts the GOH have developed over the
years, and promote trade with certain industries within Haiti, such as textiles.32 Also
the USG plans to increase its initial pledge of 1.15 billion USD to Haiti to $3.5
billion over the next five years. 33

After the earthquake struck Haiti, Secretary of State (SoS) Hilary Clinton went to
Haiti and promised the Haitians that the US would be helping them recover and
rebuild their nation. Former US Presidents Clinton and Bush went to Haiti after the
earthquake to help assist in keeping Haiti in the world’s attention. 34 By visiting Haiti,
the two former Presidents of the US planned to assist Haiti in its plan to recover and
rebuild their nation stronger than before.

Analytic Confidence: Medium
Max Korczyk


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Department of State
Disaster TASK Force

Haitian Corruption


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Haiti’s January Earthquake Fueling Further Corruption

Executive Summary:
Most Haitians fail to see any improvements from relief efforts and it is likely such
perceptions can escalate into violent destabilization of the Haitian state. As a result of a
history of corruption in the Haitian Government, management of relief funding streams
is directed to, managed and dispersed by the Interim Haiti Reconstruction Commission
(IHRC). The estimated total earthquake relief and recovery costs for Haiti is $11.5
billion for the next ten years. Haitian leaders, bypassed in the relief process, allege lack
of transparency by the IHRC and other agencies in accounting of the funds.

Discussion:
The effects of corruption can be seen on an economic, social, and environmental
levels— all of which Haiti has been experiencing. In TIs 2009 ranking, Haiti
ranks168th out of 180 countries on the CPI.35 The problem, Haiti has been/is an elitist
government run for the benefit of the wealthy at the expense of the nation as a whole.

An assessment by the Government of Haiti (GOH), and international assessment, put
the cost of recovery at $11.5 billion over the next decade.36 However, donor opinions
are divided over whether Haitian officials should be entrusted with spending the
money, since corruption is endemic in Haiti, and opportunities for corruption
multiply after humanitarian disasters. Donors fear that Haiti’s government is too
corrupt and weak to handle an enormous responsibility. The money will be routed
thought an Interim Haiti Reconstruction Commission, consisting of a board made up
of Haiti’s largest donors, and co-chaired by Haiti’s prime minister and an envoy from
the international community.

However Haitian leaders are upset the aid money is bypassing them in favor of UN
organizations, US agencies, and NGOs. Prime Minister Jean-Max Bellerive says that
the NGOs don’t tell them where the money’s coming from or how they are spending
it.37 The NGOs are flooding the local economy with their spending yet, Tatiana
Wah38 says she’s not sure she can see any monetary effects in aid. Corruption is
occurring as the elite Haitians infiltrate relief agencies helping spending permeate
throughout select areas of the economy using it on housing, security, transportation
and entertainment.39Such actions provide a fertile social environment to advance and
escalate social unrest and lack of faith in the government from its impoverished
citizens.


Shannon Mae Connors


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Inefficient GOH Response Highly Likely Due To Corruption

Executive Summary:
The massive loss of human life from the Haiti quake is highly likely due to corruption
and the lack of preparedness that comes with it. Due to corruption within the
Government of Haiti (GOH) there was a lack of preparedness in building codes and
initial response. Compared to Chile, Haiti had nonexistent building codes that lead to
structures that would easily topple. Furthermore, Haiti lacks the strong central
government that Chile posses. Unlike Chile who relied on their strong central
government for assistance, Haiti relied on external intervention.

Discussion:
Although the Chilean quake was more
powerful than the one that devastated
Haiti, the loss of human life was far less
and the country's infrastructure remains
largely intact. Donor governments
providing relief money to Haiti know
that the island nation suffered far more
casualties and damage to their
infrastructure due to corruption and the
lack of preparedness that comes with
Fig 4: Example of a rubber bearing
it.40 On the global corruption index put enforced in GOC’s building codes
out by Transparency International,
Chile ranks 25th and Haiti 168th.41 In addition, the Government of Chile (GOC)
forced builders to adhere to rigorous codes, while Haiti's corruption and carelessness
left such regulation all but nonexistent.42 GOC enforces strong building codes due to
Chile’s history of devastating earthquakes. In 1960, Chile suffered the worst
earthquake in recorded history, a 9.5 magnitude quake that killed thousands. 43 After a
7.8 magnitude earthquake in 1985, Chile established strict building codes that
mandated earthquake-proofing for new structures, requiring materials like rubber and
features like counterweights be built into the architectural designs to allow buildings
to bend and sway rather than break during temblors.44 Haiti, by contrast, allows
buildings to rise with little if any input from engineers and sometimes bribes from
GOH inspectors.45 Structures have scant reinforcement and are often set on weak
foundations. This contrast was demonstrated when 13 of the 15 GOH ministry
buildings toppled in the 12 January earthquake.46
Another difference between GOC and GOH is that GOC can divert money from more
prosperous areas of its lucrative economy to aid one devastated region.47 Unlike
Chile, Haiti does not have a lucrative economy due largely in part to GOH
corruption. Haiti defenders argue that Chile can do things right because it's more
developed. Opponents say that Haitians have it the other way around; Chile is more


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developed because it's doing things right.48 Hopefully the Chilean example will
encourage donors to make the case that reconstruction efforts is an opportunity to do
things correctly in Haiti.

Analytical Confidence: High

Analytic Confidence: Analytic confidence is High due to a large amount of evidence
supporting the estimate. Although all the sources are of medium reliability, the
observable outcome between both disasters is vast.

James E. Gallagher


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Elections in Haiti Needed for Change

Executive Summary:
In order to inhibit the current political instability within Haiti, it is likely the 2010
election will take place. For without the upcoming elections the people of Haiti will
continue to mistrust the Haitian government.

Discussion:
The GOH sustained heavy losses in the January 12th earthquake. Government
buildings and many government officials were lost in the devastation. The response
by the GOH to the earthquake was little due to poor relief infrastructure and
corruption throughout the government. Current President Rene Preval announced that
if elections cannot take place in November, he will remain in office pass February,
when his term officially ends. 49 Preval doesn’t want to leave the presidency if no
candidate is voted to take over which could also lead to more instability within the
government. Haitians have already voice that they want foreign powers to lead in the
reconstruction of their country, but the International community wants the GOH to
take responsibility showing that the GOH can handle issues with support from the
International community. 50

The people of Haiti have mistrusted their government for quite some time and they
will continue until they see and feel that there is change and improvement. When
President Preval announced that he would continue serving as president if no
elections take place in November, 2,000 demonstrators protested outside the ruins of
the National Palace.51 Officials who are trying to see that the elections take place in
November are facing adversity due to the destruction of the election agency's
headquarters and records and killed or displaced about 1.6 million voters.52 With a
new president in office, the pressure put on by the people would reduce and a new
beginning for Haiti will have taken a step forward in the right direction.


Analytic Confidence: The analyst’s confidence is a medium due to the reports read
and analyze. Elections would help Haiti in a step progressing forward, but if the
elections cannot take place Preval will remain in office pass his official term end date.
These civil protestors will continue and may eventually cause civil unrest in Haiti.

Max Korczyk


17 May 2010 P a g e | 26

Department of State
Disaster TASK Force

Haiti: Short, MID AND Long Term


17 May 2010 P a g e | 27

Rainy Season Likely to Further Weaken GOH

Executive Summary:
The rainy season is likely to further weaken the government (GOH) as it continues to
recover from the January earthquake. The GOH is working to improve and develop
temporary housing. However, the GOH could face another disaster due to an ineffective
government, poor conditions of the relocation camps, and mistrust between the
government and people.

Discussion:
The GOH has been ineffective for a long time now which can be seen by corruption
within the government. The inability of the GOH to spend aid money it was given
clearly indicates how ineffective the GOH is. Poor negotiations with private
landowners to set up relocation camps for those in danger of the upcoming rainy
season took months to settle and slowed down construction on temporary housing. 53
Another key factor in showing that the GOH is weak is when the aid began to flow
into Haiti to help the Haitians, much of the money went through the government,
which had no relief control infrastructure set up and some government officials
pocketed the money. 54

The GOH has about 700,000 people to look after and find areas to relocate them to.
Many Haitians who now live in the many tent-camp communities, set up outside
Port-au-Prince, don’t want to leave. Rape, robbery, and fear keep displaced Haitians
from leaving their families and friends behind and go the relocation camps the
government has set up.55 Even with the terrible living conditions within these
communities, people would rather stay put than move to areas in the rural part of the
country. Another issue compelling the Haitians to stay put is that these new
relocation camps set up by the government contain very little sanitary methods,
which also allows for the threat of disease within the camps. The GOH have
relocated about 7,500 people into new camps, but these camps are inadequate to
support the people.

Before the earthquake the Haitian people already had a sense of mistrust towards
their government. Now as, the GOH tries to relocate two million Haitians who were
displaced by the earthquake, as the rainy season looms closer. These displaced
Haitians now live in 1,300 makeshift camps throughout Haiti and at least 29 refugee
camps are in areas vulnerable to rains and flooding.56 The Haitians trust the US
government more than their own, which will cause a problem in trying to relocate
those who cannot believe their government is trying to save them from the rains.

Analytic Confidence: High


17 May 2010 P a g e | 28

Max Korczyk
GOH/UN Cooperation With NGOs Unlikely

Executive Summary:
It is unlikely that relief action will be carried out effectively due to lack of coordination
and communication between NGOs, the UN and GOH. Nearly 10,000 NGOs are
operating in Haiti alongside the UN and US military. Communication and meetings
with relief coordinators is almost impossible because of mass un-organization due to
stresses over leadership and where certain organizations can or cannot operate. This is
causing the NGOs and GOH/UN to give more aid than is necessary resulting in Haiti
becoming too dependent on foreign aid.

Discussion:

According to a World Bank report on Haiti there are currently at least 10,000 non-
governmental organizations (NGOs) operating in Haiti.57 This is the highest number
per capita than any other country in the world. NGO organizations such as Partners in
Health, the Red Cross, and UNICEF have been and continue to provide service for
quake victims, however despite the good intentions there are problems within the
NGO aid system.

NGO Refugees International58 went to Haiti in February to study how the overall
relief effort was proceeding. They reported that coordination and communication
between GOH and UN and international NGOs are missing, with both sectors
operating along similar and disconnected lines.59 This is due to local organizations
not being able to access the meetings at the UN compound in Port-au-Prince, where
UN agencies and international NGOs have established task-specific groups for
communication, discuss specific needs, and coordinate activities in order to avoid
overlap and maximize outreach and coverage of a response.60
So far, the relief effort in Haiti has only manage to provide 270,000 people with basic
shelters and more than 1 million people still have little to no access to food and
water.61 The effectiveness of the NGOs relies on the rapid action of the UN and U.S.
military escorts that are seen as essential for distribution and safety. The International
Donors Conference, held in late March, said that Haiti has become too reliant on
international NGOs to provide basic services to citizens and it is hurting the country
more than it is helping it.62


Shannon Mae Connors


17 May 2010 P a g e | 29

Short-term Reconstruction Not Likely To Start Soon

Executive Summary:
It is likely that the short-term reconstruction in Haiti will not begin until the end of the
Atlantic hurricane season, towards the end of November 2010. In order for the short-
term reconstruction begins humanitarian efforts in Haiti need to end. The 2010
hurricane season has been forecasted to be above-average and may cause further
damage and heighten humanitarian need.

Discussion:
The UN member states along with international partners have pledged $5.3 billion to
Haiti over the next eighteen months, short-term assistance to begin Haiti’s path to
long-term recovery. The plan for the next 18 months covers the end of the emergency
period and includes preparation for projects to generate genuine restoration. 63 Plans
for short/ long-term reconstruction have been established; however the date to start
recovery efforts has yet to be determined. Donors have pledged $9.9 billion towards
an additional third year and beyond. 64 None the less the start dates for short-term
reconstruction efforts are not fixed. Asked when the reconstruction efforts would
start, UN officials stated that reconstruction efforts begin when humanitarian aid
ends. The international community must get the humanitarian relief side right as well
Haiti won’t have the foundation for the successful longer term recovery.

With the start of the rainy and hurricane season (a total of six months starting June 1
and ending November 30.)65 Humanitarian aid is crucial, says Edward Mulet.66
Researchers at the University of Colorado forecast the 2010 hurricane season to be
above-average. 67 Research has shown the chance that the Caribbean as a whole will
be hit by a major hurricane is 58 percent.68 This is above the normal 42 percent
probability of the past century, according to their study conducted in December. 69
Even if the hurricane does not strike Haiti the offset of the hurricanes rain and high
winds will cause problems. If more devastation is done to Haiti and additional
humanitarian aid is required, than it will take longer than planned to start on the
short-term reconstruction.


Shannon Mae Connors


17 May 2010 P a g e | 30

Haitians Increasingly Unlikely to Support GOH Lead
Reconstruction

Executive Summary:
It is highly unlikely the Haitian populace will strongly support GOH lead reconstruction
efforts. Haitians perceive that reconstruction money coming into Haiti as benefiting the
country's wealthy minority rather than the vast mass of quake victims. Popular support
for Haitian President René Préval is dropping considerably, and an impending political
crisis is rapidly corroding the legitimacy in the Préval government.

Discussion:
Groups that once supported Haitian
President, René Préval, are arming
themselves against the Government of
Haiti (GOH), putting the country in
danger of further instability and political
violence. 70 Préval’s declining legitimacy
and the lack of any obvious successor for
a smooth handover of political power is
further destabilizing the country.71 Haitian
anger is driven chiefly by the perception
that what aid and money is entering Haiti Fig 5: Haitian man fights with a GOH
is benefiting the country's wealthy police officer
minority instead of the poor who were largely affected by the quake.72 Haitian anger
towards the GOH also stems from the increased efforts to relocate a number of the
large tent camps, which is resented by many of the residents.73

An Oxfam survey indicates Haitians would prefer an “occupation" to manage the
country's recovery rather than the GOH.74 The survey also revealed that fewer than
7% of Haitians wanted their government to manage reconstruction on its own. While
nearly 25% thought that the GOH could work together with the UN, US and other
NGOs, but nearly 40% wanted the control of Haiti reconstruction to fall to a foreign
government.75 In a separate question fewer than half of the respondents believed that
the international community would follow through on its pledge to rebuild Haiti. As
far as most Haitians are concerned, the GOH has abandoned them. 76


Analytic Confidence: Analytic confidence is medium due to the minimum amount
of sources that support the estimate. The main source is almost a month old. However,
current sources reaffirm the estimate.


17 May 2010 P a g e | 31

James E. Gallagher


17 May 2010 P a g e | 32

US Forces Highly Likely to Return to Haiti

Executive Summary:
Due to the upcoming hurricane season and political instability, it is highly likely that the
US will redeploy into Haiti. The US has aided Haiti through military and financial
support. With the June 1 US withdraw of military forces fast approaching, the GOH will
be led by the MINUSTAH and the National Haitian Police force, which will further
press instability throughout the country.

Discussion:
The rainy season began on 1 May in Haiti and certain camps of displaced Haitians
are flooded. The rainfall has already reached four inches in Port-au-Prince. 77 With a
limited amount of time and inadequate command and control, the GOH will not be
able to support the people of Haiti, which will cause the US military to redeploy into
Haiti. Also weather forecasters have predicted a 2010 hurricane season will be tough
on Haiti through a predicted 10 storms.78 Many people who still reside in tent
communities around Port-au-Prince have nowhere else to go due to the government’s
inefficiency in locating new areas, not in danger of the rains and upcoming hurricane
season. Shelters are being built in order to protect the people from hurricane
conditions but with little time and number of shelters to build for those living in the
tent communities will not be ready in time. 79
Haitian President Rene Preval announced that if the upcoming elections in November
don’t take place, he will remain in office pass his official end term date.80 This was
received by the Haitian population with anger as demonstrators protested outside the
ruins of the National Palace which had to be quelled down with help of riot police. 81
The people believed that President Preval responded too slowly to the earthquake and
the aftermath that ensured.82 This pressure on the government will lead to more
instability in a weak government which will struggle to maintain order. Also looking
into perspective is the International community impact if the US has to return to
Haiti. The International Community has pledged USD 5 billion over the next two
years. 83


Analytic Confidence: Analytic confidence is medium. Due to limited resources on
International impact on the International Community if US returns to Haiti, analytic
confidence is medium on what will be the international impact on the IC will be.

Max Korczyk


17 May 2010 P a g e | 33

Long-Term Reconstruction Unlikely Effective Without Effective
Leadership

Executive Summary:
If Haiti does not set up an effective leadership it is unlikely that long-term
reconstruction and stabilization will improve the state. Due to disregard in the past the
international community plans to observe long- term reconstruction that is predicted to
last for 10 years fallowing 18 months of short-term reconstruction. The Haitian state
cannot recover on its own due to extreme structural vulnerability. Haitian leaders will
require the help of the UN and international organizations to help create an effective
leadership. In addition the UN will continue to focus on humanitarian assistance to
further a stabilize Haiti.

Discussion:
The aftermath of the earthquake in Haiti exposed the countries extreme structural
vulnerability as a state. In the past, billions of dollars given for aid did not make a
considerable difference in helping Haiti.84 At the International Donors Conference in
March over 60 countries and institutions pledged to help assist Haiti during its long-
term recovery process.85

To assure safety of the $9.9 billion yielded to Haiti long-term reconstruction an anti-
corruption unit within the Interim Commission. 86 It is important that during
reconstruction the Haitian leaders and people assume responsibility for their nation.
This way Haiti can become a self reliant state in the future. For this to happen the
GOH will be closely coordinating with the UN and IC.

The stability of the Haitian state will not succeed without effective leadership from
its people, and to further the reconstruction the EU role will be secondary. 87 The UN
will be also expected to continue to focus on the immediate humanitarian assistance
in Haiti. 88 Help providing a stable environment for Haitians and allow for long-term
rebuilding efforts.


Shannon Mae Connors


17 May 2010 P a g e | 34

Web 2.0 Likely Crucial in Future Disaster Information
Dissemination

Executive Summary:

Discussion:
Web 2.0 is web-based networks that allow its users to interact with other users or to
change website content, in contrast to non-interactive websites where users are
limited to the passive viewing of information that is provided to them.89 has become
one of the first places where millions react to large-scale catastrophes. A presentation
by Jeannett Sutton at the 2009 World Conference of Disaster Management gives
thorough data about information dissemination though social media and networking
systems. 90 Through a survey Sutton and fellow researchers91 found that people went
to Web 2.0 sources for accurate and up-to-date information. 92

Since the introduction of Web 2.0 social platforms continue to grow in popularity
and are used around the world in natural disaster cases like the 2009 earthquake in
China, and the Southern California wildfires. The Haiti earthquake in January
highlighted the importance of social platforms in major emergencies. Over 24 hours
after the quake, networkers and news organizations turned to Web 2.0 tools to share
and gather information on Twitter93, YouTube94, Skype95, and Facebook96. The
government and mainstream news organizations are now using social platforms to
collect information in the aftermath of disasters. Government organizations like
FEMA have been engaging in Web 2.0 tools nationwide as part of its mission to
prepare the nation for disasters. DOS is looking towards utilizing social platforms to
search for US citizens in disaster stricken countries.

These social platforms are valuable because there’s a lot of information flowing
between people because it’s a decentralized network. These systems are able to
transmit information directly from those who are experiencing the disaster in real
time and to those who can provide help in real time, without editing or delay.

Shannon Mae Connors


17 May 2010 P a g e | 35

US Efforts Likely to Continue after Pull-Out

Executive Summary:
Despite the US military pull out of Haiti on June 1 st, it is likely US forces will continue
efforts in Haiti. With certain military forces in Haiti providing humanitarian efforts,
continuation of financial support, and political support, US efforts towards Haiti will
bring Haiti closer to a sense of stability.

Discussion:
1 June is the official pull-put date for remaining US troops in Haiti. 97 National Guard
units will perform humanitarian efforts such as reconstruction projects and medical
training assistance throughout a five month period.98 This step by the United States
Government (USG) demonstrates that the military mission is over and the
humanitarian mission begins. Also another success would be the flexibility of the US
military as they deployed 22,000 soldiers to Haiti in the beginning. 99

The US Congress has been working to pass bills creating more financial support
towards Haiti. With bills intended on supporting trade with Haiti and promoting
industries with Haiti. 100 Along with bills and trade agreements the USG will continue
overseeing aid and humanitarian efforts in Haiti. USG plans to create an international
trust fund for Haiti which would support investment in infrastructure including the
development of electricity grids, roads, water and sanitation facilities, and
reforestation initiatives in Haiti. 101

Haitian elections were suppose to take place in February, but were cancelled due to
devastation caused by the earthquake. Haitian elects have been schedule for
November of this year, but the GOH is struggling to obtain voting records and
distribute ballots to the 1.6 displaced Haitians.102 To help support the Haitians in the
electoral system, the US along with the International Community pledged technical,
logistical and material support to help Haiti hold timely elections. 103


Analytic Confidence: Analyst confidence is medium due to sources which were
researched.

Max Korczyk


17 May 2010 P a g e | 36

Link Chart (Haiti Node only)
Note: This is only from the Haiti node of
the link chart.


17 May 2010 P a g e | 37

Department of State
Disaster TASK Force

Scene Setter


17 May 2010 P a g e | 38

Meeting with Special Representative and Head of the United
Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) Edmond
Mulet

Scene Setter:
Since 1993, the UN has played a key role in providing security and legitimacy to the
Government of Haiti (GOH). In September 1993, the UN Security Council established
its first peacekeeping operation in the country. However, due to a lack of cooperation
with Haitian military authorities, the operation was not successful. Throughout the late
1990’s, there were several UN peacekeeping missions deployed to Haiti. Initially, these
missions were tasked with restoring a democratic government. However, due to
continuing political crisis and a lack of stability in the country, serious reforms never
took hold. Following the 12 January earthquake that devastated Haiti, all progress made
by previous UN peacekeeping missions was lost and MINUSTAH’s headquarters was
destroyed. Furthermore, the mission's chief,
Hédi Annabi of Tunisia, was killed in the
quake. With the death of Hédi Annabi, the
former head of MINUSTAH and current
Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping
Operations, Edmond Mulet, became the
organization's Special Representative and
interim head of MINUSTAH.104 With US
military forces disengaging from Haiti on 1
June 2010, MINUSTAH will take the lead role
in providing security and humanitarian aid in
Haiti. MINUSTAH’s main objective is to Fig 6: The current head of the United
maintain stability in the region and assist the Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti
Haitian Nation Police in providing security (MINUSTAH) Edmund Mulet
within the country.

Topic:
The objective of the meeting is to discuss the US role in Haiti after formal military
operations end on 1 June. Another topic will be how US and MINUSTAH forces can
create a legitimate, self sufficient democracy in Haiti that is not constantly relying on
foreign governments for aid or support.

Short Biography of Edmund Mulet:
Edmund Mulet is a Guatemalan diplomat who was educated in Guatemala, Canada, the
US and Switzerland.105 He is currently the Special Representative of the Secretary-
General and head of MINUSTAH. Mulet assumed the position of acting head of
MINUSTAH in the immediate aftermath of the 2010 Haiti earthquake in which the
previous head of mission, Hédi Annabi of Tunisia, died. Prior to the Haitian earthquake,


17 May 2010 P a g e | 39

Mulet was the Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations and Head of
the Office of Operations since August 2007. Formerly, he was Guatemala's ambassador
to the European Union, the Kingdom of Belgium and Luxembourg.106 Prior to this, he
was a member of Guatemala’s National Congress (GNC) for approximately 12 years
and served one term as president of the GNC. During Mulet’s years in the Guatemalan
legislature, he was involved in the Central American peace process and the Guatemalan
peace negotiations.107

Talking Points:

 The US thanks MINUSTAH for their efforts to help the Haitian people and
for MINUSTAHs continued work in providing security and legitimacy to
the GOH.

 The US wants to assure a smooth transition between US military forces and
MINSTAH when logistical, security and humanitarian responsibilities are
transferred over to MINUSTAH/UN forces on 1 June.

 We want to emphasize that the internal problems within the GOH must be
rooted out if there is any hope for Haiti to become a legitimate self sufficient
democracy. Although the US wants to support Haiti, we do not want Haiti
to always be reliant on foreign powers for aid or support.

 We want to encourage MINUSTAH to progressively wean the reliance of
GOH security forces away from MINUSTAH and foreign security forces so
that GOH security forces can become self reliant and not dependent upon
foreign powers.

 The US wants to encourage MINUSTAH to crack down on the recent spike
in organized crime and gang violence. The most likely solution to this
problem is via humanitarian aid to areas that have not yet been adequately
reached. It is hoped that humanitarian aid will reduce the perceived need
for gangs and reduce crimes.

 We are worried about the recent spike in the number of humanitarian
workers who are kidnapped and held for ransom. We propose that
MINUSTAH and GOH forces provide more adequate security for these
humanitarian workers.

James E. Gallagher


17 May 2010 P a g e | 40

Secretary of State Meeting with Maj. Gen. Simeon G. Trombitas,
Newly Anointed Commander of Joint Task Force-Haiti

Scene Setter:
The major earthquake that hit Haiti on 12 January left the island nation reeling in
destruction of its buildings and a death toll in the thousands. With the government of
Haiti (GOH) inadequate to handle the rescue
and recovery operations, the US along with
the International Community came to Haiti’s
aid. The US sent in military forces to help in
logistics and relief and recovery operations.
The UN along with US came together in
March to hold a Donor Conference for Haiti,
in which the International Community
pledged financial support to Haiti. Now four
months after the earthquake and US has
steadily been reducing the troops in Haiti,
with the official pull-out date set for June
first. The US will use 500 National Guards to
continue humanitarian efforts in Haiti, in a
new operation called “New Horizons”.
Fig 5: Major General Simeon G.
Topic:
Tromitas, Commander of Joint Task
The objective of the meeting is to discuss the
Force- Haiti
US role in Haiti after formal military
operations end on 1 June.

Short Biography of Maj. Gen. Simeon G. Trombitas:
Before being appointed to commander of the Joint Task Force-Haiti, Major General
Trombitas was commander of the US South Army since November ninth of last year.
Before that, he was the special assistant to the commanding general of Army Special
Operations Command at Fort Bragg, N.C.108 Simeon G. Trombitas graduated from the
U.S. Military Academy at West Point, New York, in 1978 with a bachelor in science.109
His first assignment was with the 2nd Armored Division. He has commanded the U.S.
Special Operations Command in Korea and the U.S. Military Group in Colombia.110

Talking Points:

 The Louisiana National Guard forces remaining in Haiti will help out in
humanitarian and reconstruction efforts.

 The other US National Guard forces will participate in aviation security
and work together with the Haitian Police forces.


17 May 2010 P a g e | 41

 The roles of the United Nations MINUSTAH and the Haitian Police Force
will be critical in assuming responsibilities once the remaining US military
forces pull-out.

 It is critical for MINUSTAH and the remaining US military forces after 1
June to adequately coordinate and communicate to provide effective
security and humanitarian efforts.

 The operation “New Horizons” covers humanitarian efforts. Is there a
possibility that these National Guards forces will stay beyond the end date
of the operation which concludes in September.

Max Korczyk


17 May 2010 P a g e | 42

Secretary of State Meeting with Under-Secretary-General for
Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, Sir
John Holmes

Scene Setter:
Immediately following the 12 January earthquake in Haiti, the UNEP/Office for the
Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Joint Environment Unit was monitoring
the situation closely and teams were on standby to assist with the forthcoming recovery
efforts. OCHA held and organized a chaired Member States briefing on the Haiti
Revised Humanitarian Appeal on 22 February. 111 On behalf of the Humanitarian
Coordinator, OCHA also manages the Emergency Relief Response Fund for Haiti. As
of 24 February there are currently 37 OCHA staff members in Haiti that specializes in
humanitarian affairs, information management, needs and assessments, donor relations
and reporting.112 These staff members monitor
and update on the humanitarian and recovery
efforts.

Topic:
The objective of the meeting is to discuss the
current humanitarian affairs and the emergency
relief taking place in Haiti.

Short Biography of Sir John Holmes:
Awarded a knighthood in 1999, Sir Johns
Holmes is a career diplomat who was born in
Preston, in the north of England, and received
his higher education from Balliol College, Sir John Holmes, Under-Secretary-
113 General for Humanitarian Affairs
Oxford. He was appointed on 1 March 2007
and Emergency Relief Coordinator
as the Under-Secretary- General for
Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, by Secretary –General Ban
Ki-moon. Before his appointment Mr. Holmes was the British Ambassador in Paris
from October 2001 to February 2007. He served in a wide range of posts and roles
during his career in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) since 1973, and was
appointed as a temporary second secretary at the British Embassy in Moscow returning
to London in 1887 as Assistant Head of the Soviet Department in the FCO.114 In 1995
he was head of the European Union Department in the FCO but then switched to
become the Private Secretary (Overseas Affairs) and Diplomatic Advisor to former
Prime Minister John Major.115
Talking Points:

 The relocation of displaced people to areas at high risk for flooding.
 The efficiency of emergency shelters being built to withstand the upcoming
hurricane season for the 1.2 million homeless and displaced Haitian people.


17 May 2010 P a g e | 43

 Collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture and Agriculture cluster
members on seed distributions for helping the agricultural sector.

 The areas of Haiti that do not have health care coverage and are still being
identified.

 The use of Emergency Telecommunications (ETC) between humanitarian
work areas and their coverage.

Shannon Mae Connors


17 May 2010 P a g e | 44

Department of State
Disaster TASK Force

Annex 3
Earthquake Affected Areas And
population Movement in Haiti


Note: Population movements indicated include only individuals utilizing GOH-provided transportation and do not include people
leaving Port-au-Prince utilizing private means of transport. Both maps are accurate as of 7 May 2010. Source:
http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/humanitarian_assistance/disaster_assistance/countries/haiti/template/maps/fy2010/haiti_0507201
0.pdf
17 May 2010

|T he
|Depa r tment of Sta te
P a g e | 45

17 May 2010 P a g e | 46

Department of State
Disaster TASK Force

Annex 4
USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE TO HAITI
FOR THE EARTHQUAKE


This map shows the location and activity of USG and NGO organizations in Haiti. Note: Both maps are accurate as of 7 May 2010
Source:
http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/humanitarian_assistance/disaster_assistance/countries/haiti/template/maps/fy2010/haiti_0507201
0.pdf
17 May 2010

|T he
Depa r tment of Sta te
|
P a g e | 47

17 May 2010 P a g e | 48

Department of State
Disaster TASK Force

Annex 5
Who Haitians think Should Carry
Out Reconstruction


17 May 2010 P a g e | 49
Who Haitians think Should Carry Out Reconstruction

Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/apr/18/haiti-tension-gang-violence-preval

This survey was carried out by
Oxfam. The Sample size was
1,700 displaced Haitians.

7% Haitians that wanted their
government to manage
reconstruction on its own

Haitians that thought the GOH
40% 25% could work together with the
local authorities and
community organizations

Haitians that wanted the
control of Haiti reconstruction
to fall to a foreign government


17 May 2010 P a g e | 50

Department of State
Disaster TASK Force

Annex 6
Location of Congested camps in
Port-Au-Prince and possible
spontaneous settlement sites


Location of Congested camps in Port-Au-Prince and possible spontaneous settlement sites. Note: Accurate as of 16 February 2010
Source: http://ochadms.unog.ch/cap-
exchange.nsf/0/D5F63279A726B4EDC12576C
E00466B1C/$FILE/HAITI_HUMANITARIAN%20A
PPEAL_2010_small%20size.pdf
17 May 2010

|T he
|
P a g e | 51

17 May 2010 P a g e | 52

Department of State
Disaster TASK Force

Annex 7
Location of WFP Food Distribution
Centers in Port-Au-Prince


Location of WFP Food Distribution Centers in Port-Au-Prince. Note: Accurate as of 16 February 2010
17 May 2010

|T he
|
Source: http://ochadms.unog.ch/cap-
exchange.nsf/0/D5F63279A726B4EDC12
576CE00466B1C/$FILE/HAITI_HUMANIT
P a g e | 53

ARIAN%20APPEAL_2010_small%20size.p
df

17 May 2010 P a g e | 54

Department of State
Disaster TASK Force

Annex 8
The location of the Oil slick in
comparison the gulf of Mexico
current


17 May 2010 P a g e | 55

Source:
http://www.csc.noaa.gov/crs/definitions/loop
current.gif

Area of the oil spill as of May 4 2010


17 May 2010 P a g e | 56

Department of State
Disaster TASK Force

Annex 9
Contact INFORMATION


17 May 2010 P a g e | 57

Contact Information
Please feel free to contact the analysts with any questions or comments
concerning this briefing book.

James E. Gallagher
E: jgalla79@mercyhurst.edu

T: 240-432-3489

A: 119 Driscoll Way
Gaithersburg MD 20878

Max Korczyk
E: mkorcz28@mercyhurst.edu

T: 815-388-2008

A: 1715 Bull Ridge Drive
McHenry Illinois 60060

Shannon Connors
E: sconno86@mercyhurst.edu

T: 703-627-9230

A: 7712 Otaku Lane
Flagstaff Arizona 86001


17 May 2010 P a g e | 58

Department of State
Disaster TASK Force

Annex 10
Acknowledgments


17 May 2010 P a g e | 59

Acknowledgments
We want to thank Professor Mills for guiding us through the process of creating
this guidebook. Without him, this briefing book would have never been possible. Thank
you.

-The Department of State Team-


17 May 2010 P a g e | 60

Department of State
Disaster TASK Force

Annex 11
Imagery Sourcing


17 May 2010 P a g e | 61

Imagery Sourcing

Figure 1: http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2010/05/08/article-1275355-094A753D000005DC-
436_468x286.jpg
Figure 2:http://i.pbase.com/g6/82/643382/2/74706503.Ywkcw7s2.jpg
Figure 3: http://www.dominionpaper.ca/files/dominion-img/p76.jpg
Figure 4:http://trendsupdates.com/the-worlds-biggest-earth-quake-proof-building-is-an-
airport/
Figure 5:http://www.sfbayview.com/wp-content/uploads/haiti-school-collapse-relative-vs-
police-110908-by-ramon-espinosa-ap1.jpg
Figure6:
http://downloads.unmultimedia.org/cms/radio/content/uploads/2009/12/full/mullet.jpg
Figure 7: http://www.dodlive.mil/files/2010/03/20100331_Trombitas_photo-120x150.jpg
Figure 8: http://worldradio.ch/wrs/bm~pix/holmes-gaza~s600x600.jpg


17 May 2010 P a g e | 62

Department of State
Disaster TASK Force

Annex 12
Endnotes

Endnotes


17 May 2010 P a g e | 63

1
http://www.nationalpost.com/scripts/story.html?id=3033389#ixzz0o3rkGiai
2
3
4
5
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/05/15/AR2010051503543.html
6
7
http://cnn.com/video/?/video/politics/2010/05/13/ac.markey.oil.spill.cnn
8
http://cnn.com/video/?/video/politics/2010/05/13/ac.markey.oil.spill.cnn
9
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/cleanup+effort+employs+small+city/3031650/story.html#ixzz0o
3QGCduL
10
http://www.military-technologies.net/2010/05/05/bp-requests-for-military-technology-to-contain-
oil-spill/
11
http://www.politico.com/blogs/politicolive/0510/Admiral_Allen_says_the_entire_Gulf_pretty_much_
has_to_be_on_guard_as_oil_spill_could_worsen.html?showall
12
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jbi5uWbOVPuqck1GxL0Y1baSG58AD9FIQRK0
0
13
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-29/oil-spill-imperils-gulf-coast-fishing-industry-
update1-.html
14
http://www4.janes.com/subscribe/sentinel/CACS_doc_view.jsp?Sent_Country=Haiti&Prod_Name=CA
CS&K2DocKey=/content1/janesdata/sent/cacsu/haits010.htm@current
15
http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/humanitarian_assistance/disaster_assistance/countries/haiti/templa
te/fs_sr/fy2010/haiti_eq_fs49_04-09-2010.pdf
16
http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/humanitarian_assistance/disaster_assistance/countries/haiti/templa
te/fs_sr/fy2010/haiti_eq_fs50_04-16-2010.pdf
17
http://www.refugeesinternational.org/policy/field-report/haiti-ground
18
http://www.refugeesinternational.org/policy/field-report/haiti-ground
19
http://www.heritagekonpa.com/Abductions%20for%20ransom%20soar%20in%20Haiti.htm
20
21
22
http://www.refugeesinternational.org/policy/field-report/dominican-republic-haiti-and-us-shared-
responsibility-protect-refugees
23
http://www.refugeesinternational.org/policy/field-report/dominican-republic-haiti-and-us-shared-
responsibility-protect-refugees
24
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gV04s7vQYfbITT2t_YKym-ePvYaw
25
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gV04s7vQYfbITT2t_YKym-ePvYaw
26
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Military/2010/0413/As-Michelle-Obama-visits-Haiti-US-military-
plans-June-exit
27
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Military/2010/0413/As-Michelle-Obama-visits-Haiti-US-military-
plans-June-exit
28
http://media-newswire.com/release_1118144.html
29
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5idZiVQhHcyG1gpBjzXaAmmk4_OtAD9FIFPL
30
http://newsblaze.com/story/20100421152621stat.nb/topstory.html
31
http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/americas/03/31/haiti.donors/index.html
32
http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=51329
33
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5idZiVQhHcyG1gpBjzXaAmmk4_OtAD9FH0JBG
1
34
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8580641.stm
35
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8502616.stm


17 May 2010 P a g e | 64

36
http://www.thenational.ae/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20100331/FOREIGN/703309889/1135
37
http://www.3news.co.nz/Haiti---wheres-the-aid-money-
going/tabid/417/articleID/145000/Default.aspx
38
Tatiana Wah is a Haitian planning expert at Columbia University who is living in Petionville and
working as an advisor to Haiti’s government.
39
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/28/world/americas/28haitipoor.html
40
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1968576,00.html
41
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1968576,00.html#ixzz0nbXTQItR
42
43
http://theweek.com/article/index/200198/Quake_comparison_Chile_vs_Haiti
44
http://theweek.com/article/index/200198/Quake_comparison_Chile_vs_Haiti
45
46
47
48
49
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iwf2qI3IKG5boz7QbfojxijnkDgQD9FH3VK00
50
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2822043320100328
51
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/C/CB_HAITI_PROTESTS?SITE=RIPAW&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLA
TE=DEFAULT
52
TE=DEFAULT
53
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2010/03/19/heavy-rains-sweeping-away-screaming-haitians-
homeless-camps/
54
http://www.probeinternational.org/foreign-aid/rebuilding-haiti-depends-redeveloping-
haiti%E2%80%99s-government
55
http://www.worldvision.org/content.nsf/about/20100212-haiti-survivors
56
57
http://www.mantlethought.org/content/haiti-putting-ngos-their-place
58
Refugees International advocates for lifesaving assistance and protection for displaced people and
promotes solutions to displacement crises. http://www.refintl.org/who-we-are
59
http://reason.com/blog/2010/03/12/ngos-falling-short-in-haiti
60
http://reason.com/blog/2010/03/12/ngos-falling-short-in-haiti
61
http://www.counterpunch.org/smith02242010.html
62
http://www.mantlethought.org/content/haiti-putting-ngos-their-place
63
http://www.haiticonference.org/Haiti_Action_Plan_ENG.pdf
64
http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2010/03/139336.htm
65
The Atlantic hurricane season is from 1 June to 30 November, however the Atlantic Oceanographic
and Metrological Laboratory (AOML) states, “hurricanes have occurred outside of these six months, but
these dates were selected to encompass over 97% of tropical activity.”
http://travelwithkids.about.com/gi/o.htm?zi=1/XJ&zTi=1&sdn=travelwithkids&cdn=travel&tm=219&f=0
0&su=p974.3.168.ip_&tt=13&bt=0&bts=1&st=24&zu=http%3A//www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/G1.htm
l
66
http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/news/international/Haiti_humanitarian_need_competes_with_recovery
_plan.html?cid=8579240
67
Colorado State University's (CSU) top hurricane expert William Gray and team forecast the Atlantic
hurricane season.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iXGQ1L9LOEqjUqEzJUs8ABF4lGjw
68
69
70
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/apr/18/haiti-tension-gang-violence-preval


17 May 2010 P a g e | 65

71
72
73
http://article.wn.com/view/2010/04/11/Haiti_begins_relocating_quake_victims_ahead_of_rains/
74
75
76
77
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/31508/rainy-season-in-full-swing-for.asp
78
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/31508/rainy-season-in-full-swing-for.asp
79
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/kindness/post/2010/04/as-haitis-hurricane-season-
approaches-international-aid-organizations-rush-to-provide-emergency-shelter-kits/1
80
81
TE=DEFAULT
82
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N28214256.htm
83
http://www.oxfam.org/en/pressroom/pressrelease/2010-03-31/un-donor-conference-haiti-
reconstruction-aid
84
http://www.euractiv.com/en/foreign-affairs/helping-build-haitis-long-term-future-analysis-395986
85
http://www.haiticonference.org/Haiti_Action_Plan_ENG.pdf
86
Anti-corruption unit co-chairs are Haitian Prime Minister Jean-Max Bellerive and former President
Clinton acting as liaison for the UN.
87
http://www.euractiv.com/en/foreign-affairs/helping-build-haitis-long-term-future-analysis-395986
88
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/esther-brimmer/rebuilding-haiti-a-global_b_528790.html88
Endnotes
89
According to Prashant Sharma, Web 2.0 is web-based communities, hosted services, web applications,
social-networking sites, video-sharing sites, wikis, blogs, mashups, and folksonomies.
http://www.techpluto.com/web-20-services/
90
http://www.emergencymgmt.com/safety/The-Public-Uses-Social-Networking.html
91
Palen and Irina Shklovs, postdoctoral researchers at the University of California at Irvine.
92
This survey was developed for the evacuation of San Diego during the Southern California wildfires of
2007.
93
Twitter, is a social networking and microblogging service that enables its users to send and read
messages known as tweets. http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/15/hacker-exposes-private-twitter-
documents/?hpw.
94
YouTube, the hugely popular video-sharing site owned by Google.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/worldagenda/2010/01/100122_worldagenda_haiti_monitoring.sht
ml
95
Skype, is a software application that allows users to make voice calls over the Internet. Can be with or
without video. http://about.skype.com/
96
Facebook, is a social media and networking site.
97
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5idZiVQhHcyG1gpBjzXaAmmk4_OtAD9FIFPL
98
http://www.globalsecurity.org/security/library/news/2010/05/sec-100513-afps02.htm
99
http://www.army.mil/-news/2010/05/13/39011-joint-task-force-haiti-set-to-complete-mission-june-
1/
100
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100507/pl_afp/haitiquakeuspoliticsaid_20100507142809
101
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/world/view/20100415-264384/US-Congress-passes-
Haiti-debt-relief-bill
102
http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2010/may/11/haiti-protesters-blast-earthquake-response/
103
http://www.newkerala.com/news/fullnews-106487.html
104
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=33499&Cr=haiti&Cr1=
105
http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2010/sga1228.doc.htm


17 May 2010 P a g e | 66

106
107
108
http://www.sofmag.com/wp/2010/04/trombitas-takes-command-of-jtf-haiti/
109
http://www.defense.gov/Blog_files/Blog_assets/20100330_Trombitas_bio.pdf
110
http://blogs.nyu.edu/blogs/agc282/zia/TROMBITAS,%20Simeon%20G.%20Brig.%20Gen.-4.pdf
111
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/unep/126344964565.htm
112
http://ochaonline.un.org/tabid/6412/language/en-US/Default.aspx
113
http://ochaonline.un.org/OCHAHome/AboutUs/TheUSGERC/tabid/5844/language/en-
US/Default.aspx
114
US/Default.aspx
115
US/Default.aspx


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