Appkodes Tinder Clone Script with Customisable Solutions.pptx
Cordeiro spf 2012
1. EL MERCADO DE LA MADERA:
Perspectivas de La Bio-energía
y la Pulpa de Celulosa
Discussions with
Sociedad de Productores Forestales
Montevideo July, 4 2012
Facilitated by Mr João Cordeiro
2. AGENDA
What is Pöyry ?
Is the Digital Age Killing the Paper Industry ?
What Drives the Success of Eucalyptus Fibre ?
Can Value Be Created With Bio-energy ?
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3. SCOPE OF OUR DISCUSSIONS TODAY
Forest Conversion Products
Conventional
products
Bioenergy
Multitude of
conventional techno-
logies and processes
New
Multitude of emerging
bio-products
technologies and
processes
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4. PÖYRY GROUP
GLOBAL EXPERTS IN CONSULTING AND ENGINEERING
Pöyry is a global consulting and engineering
company dedicated to balanced sustainability
and responsible business
7 000 experts in about 50 countries
Project experience in over 100 countries
15 000 projects annually
Net sales in 2011 EUR 796 million
Listed on the NASDAQ OMX Helsinki
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5. WIDE RANGE OF DEEP EXPERTISE
URBAN & MOBILITY WATER & ENVIRONMENT
Urban planning Water
Real estate development Wastewater
Transport planning Waste
Rail infrastructure Environment
Road infrastructure
Construction
management
Building design
INDUSTRY ENERGY
Pulp and paper Hydropower
Chemicals Thermal power
Minerals processing Bio-renewables
Oil and gas
Nuclear energy
Transmission and distribution
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6. THE DIGITAL AGE
AND THE PAPER INDUSTRY
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10. LONG-TERM DEMAND GROWTH BY PRODUCT THROUGH 2025
World paper demand is expected to grow by 1.6%/a in the long term.
Tissue, containerboards and cartonboards will be the fastest growing product
areas, while the global demand for newsprint/mechanical printing papers is
expected to decline.
Demand growth, %/a
4
Tissue
3 Containerboard
Cartonboard
2 Average 1.6%/a
1 CWF Sack
UWF
Other P&B
0
-1 CWC
Newsprint UWC
-2
0 20 40 60 80 100
Share of consumption in 2010, %
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11. GDP AND GRAPHIC PAPER CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA
There has been a clear shift in terms of per capita consumption between 2005 and
2010. At higher income levels (above USD 40 000 per capita) the per capita
consumption has declined on average by 15-25 kg.
Consumption, kg per capita
160
140 World cross-
section 2005
120
100
80 World cross-
section 2010
60
40 Country
data 2010
20
0
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000
GDP per capita, in terms of real USD (2009 price level)
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12. SUBSTANTIAL DEMAND GROWTH OUTSIDE GRAPHIC PAPERS
When we look at the big picture, it is easy to see who needs fibre in the future.
To put it simple, all growth is in tissue and packaging.
Million tonnes
600
CAGR 2010-25
Forecast
500
0.5%/a
CAGR 2010-25: 1.6%/a Other
Tissue 3.2%/a
400
300
Packaging 2.6%/v
200
100
Graphic Papers -0.1%/v
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
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14. PAPER AND PAPERBOARD PRODUCTION PROSPECTS 2010-2025
The growth of production is shifting outside the traditional supply areas.
Production and consumption 2010 Growth of production 2010-2025
North America North America
Western Europe Western Europe
Eastern Europe Eastern Europe
Japan Japan
China China
Rest of Asia Rest of Asia
Latin America Latin America
Production
Consumption
Other regions Other regions
0 20 40 60 80 100 -20 0 20 40 60 80
Million tons Million tons
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15. WHAT DRIVES THE SUCCESS
OF EUCALYPTUS FIBRE?
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16. QUALITY WISE EUCALYPTUS
IS SUPERIOR IN MANY APPLICATIONS
Example Tissue Paper made with Eucalyptus pulp
• High softness
• High bulk, “fluff ness”-- loosened paper structure
• Fast liquid absorption and capacity to retain water
• Adequate porosity (pore sizes and distribution)
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17. SUSTAINABILITY IS KEY FOR OUR LONG-TERM SUCCESS
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18. THE WORLD OF FIBRE
The main raw material for paper is paper !
Paper & Board
374 million t
54% 46%
Recovered Fibre Papermaking Fibre Dissolving
203.5 million t 170.7 million t 4.5 million t
9% 70% 21%
Non-wood Chemical Mechanical
15.8 million t 119.7 million t 35.1 million t
26% 28% 46%
BSKP Other pulp BHKP
31.5 million t 33.5 million t 54.7 million t
12% 53% 35% 46% 54%
Fluff Pulp Market Integrated Market Pulp Integrated
3.9 million t 16.6 million t 11.0 million t 25.3 million t 29.4 million t
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19. WORLD DEMAND FOR CHEMICAL PULP 1995-2025
In the long term, global demand for chemical fibre is forecast to grow from 126
million tons in 2010 to 150 million tons by the year 2025, corresponding to an
average growth rate of 1.2%/a.
Million tons
160
Other
140 Forecast
Latin America
Rest of Asia Emerging
120 markets
CAGR
100 China 3.8%/a
80 Eastern Europe
Japan
60
Western Europe Mature
40 markets
CAGR
-0.6%/a
20 North America
0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
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20. COMPLEMENTARY EXPANSION
Pulp and paper capacity in Asia and in South America
mostly pulp mostly paper
Capacity 1000 t/a
2 000
1 000
200
Paper
Pulp
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21. SHARE OF MARKET PULP
Pulp is called “market pulp” when pulps are sold as raw material to paper
production – typically pulp is dried and transported to a paper mill in another
location.
%
45
Forecast
40
35
Share of market pulp
of total wood pulps
30
25
20
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
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22. GLOBAL WOOD PULP AND RCP TRADE FLOWS
Asia is key - growing importer of both virgin fibre and RCP.
17.4
0.2
2.3 3.5 0.2 0.3
0.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 6.8
0.2
0.7 0.30.5 1.0
3.2 1.4 0.1
0.3 1.2 9.3 0.7
0.3 4.5 0.6 12.8
1.7
4.3 4.9
1.3 2.3
1.7 0.9
0.9
1.4
0.8
1.6
0.6
6.9
Total Recovered Fibre Trade 54 million tons
Total Wood Pulp Trade 47 million tons
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23. IMPORTS OF HARDWOOD CHIPS INTO ASIA-PACIFIC
China will become the main importer of wood chips before 2020.
million BDMT
20
Japan China Taiwan South Korea Other
15
10
5
0
1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: Country Import Statistics
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24. THE IMPORTANCE OF CHINA
Virgin Market Pulp Recycled
fibre consumption, million tons fibre consumption, million tons
75 250
60 200
China
China
45 150
30 100
Rest of the World Rest of the World
15 50
0 0
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
Chinese recycled fibre imports are already approaching maximum level of close
to 30 million tons while market pulp consumption should about double in next 15
years
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25. CAN VALUE BE CREATED
WITH BIO-ENERGY ?
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26. GLOBAL LIFE CYCLE OF WOOD
More than half of wood currently used globally, is used in energy production.
CO2, Ash
Wood Demand
1.57 billion bone dry tons
51% INPUT 49%
Fuel Wood Sawn Wood Wood panels
Fibre / Pulp
Power
By-Products and Residues
Heat
Paper, Board
62% OUTPUT 38%
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27. EU RENEWABLE ENERGY DIRECTIVE
Enforced by the European Parliament and Council in December
2008 and it became law in June 2009.
It sets the following binding targets:
• 20% increase in energy efficiency
• 20% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
• 20% share of renewable energy in overall
EU final energy consumption by 2020
• 10% biofuel component in vehicle fuels by 2020
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28. EXAMPLES OF RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGETS
Selected Countries Shown
Mtoe
Germany 16
France 15
Italy 12
United Kingdom 16
Sweden 4
Finland 3
2010
Austria 1
2020
Netherlands 5
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Mtoe of renewable energy
1 Mtoe = 11.63 TWh
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29. NATIONAL RENEWABLE ACTION PLANS
THE “NREAPs”
All EU member states were required to publish an action
plan to detail the measures enabling them to comply with
the 2020 targets.
Final Renewable:
Energy • Heating & Cooling Technology
Consumption • Electricity Mix
Estimates • Transport
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30. FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF
RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY IN THE EU-27
Wind is the winner, but there is significant growth in biomass and solar
TWh
1400
1200 Liquid biomass
fuels
1000 Biogas
800 Solid biomass
600 Wind
400 Solar
Geothermal
200
Hydropower
0
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
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31. FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF
RENEWABLE HEATING AND COOLING IN THE EU-27
Renewable heating and cooling in the EU-27 is based mainly on solid biomass.
TWh
1400
Heat pumps
1200
1000 Liquid biomass
fuels
800 Biogas
600 Solid biomass
400 Solar
200 Geothermal
0
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
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32. SCHEMES AND INCENTIVES TO PROMOTE GREEN ENERGY
Definitions
Guaranteed fixed payment paid for each unit of electricity produced
Feed-in tariff
from renewable sources.
Guaranteed fixed payment in addition to the wholesale electricity price
Feed-in premium
paid for each unit of electricity produced from renewable sources.
Tradable certificate, which is granted to generators for a stated
Green certificate multiple of units of electricity produced from renewable sources. It’s
an additional source of income to the wholesale electricity price.
Price to be paid for each non-delivered GC in respect of the
Penalty price
renewable energy obligation.
Quota system System imposing a minimum share of electricity generated from
renewable sources on customers, retailers or producers.
Max quota system System where incentives are guaranteed up to a predetermined
amount of capacity or electricity generation from renewable sources.
Any tax related incentive policy (tax deduction, flexible depreciations
Fiscal incentives
schemes etc.
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33. RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY - CASE UNITED KINGDOM
The UK has established a renewable electricity quota system with a tradable green
certificates.
Ofgem issues Suppliers redeem
ROCs to green ROCs to meet the
generator
Authority
obligation
ROCs can be traded between
suppliers and traders
Other suppliers
Generator sells the
ROCs to any Traders
supplier or trader
Supplier
Generator Customer
Generator sells the electricity to supplier Supplier sells the electricity to customer
The current UK system utilises green certificates, known as ROCs, to encourage the adoption of
renewable energy generation techniques.
The amount of ROCs available to a generator is dependent on the generation technique being used.
A purchase obligation is placed on licensed electricity suppliers. Compliance with the obligation is
demonstrated either from redemption of GCs (Renewable Obligation Certificates ROCs) or by paying
a buy-out price to the Buy-out Fund.
Average ROC price has been close to 40 GBP/MWh
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34. RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY – CASE DENMARK
Denmark offers both feed-in tariffs and premiums for renewable energy production.
D
Authority approves
generator for feed- Authority
in tariff
Feed-in premium
Electricty price
Supplier
Generator Customer
Generator sells the electricty to supplier Supplier sells the electricty to customer
Renewable electricity and heat is supported both with feed-in tariffs and premiums, however, which
one a renewable energy generation facility can claim depends on when it became operational.
RE generators are entitled to a Feed-in-tariff (FiT) or a feed-in premium paid on top of the spot
electricity market price depending on the date of connection to the grid.
Biomass plants connected to the grid after February 2008 get 20,1 €/MWh premium on the top of
electricity price for 10 years.
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35. WOODY AND AGRO BIOMASS
SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR ENERGY IN THE EU
According to Pöyry’s latest estimates and depending on the scenario used,
total biomass supply gap is around 230 TWh in 2020,
This represents some 115 million m3 of roundwood equivalent, depending on fuel
quality and conversion efficiency
TWh
1,500
1,250
1,000
750
500
250
0
Supply 2010 Supply 2020 Supply gap Demand 2020 Demand 2010
Woody biomass supply Woody biomass demand Agribiomass demand Agribiomass supply Supply gap
1) Estimated EU 27 woody biomass supply for energy production and NREAP based demand assessment.
2) Includes EU 27 annual allowable cuts, post consumer wood, land management wood and harvesting residues potential.
3) Immobilised woody biomass potential is resulting among others from imperfect markets and fragmented forest ownership.
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36. BIOMASS PAYING CAPABILITY
BPC describes the theoretical upper limit of price for pellets delivered at energy
plant by taking into account the national energy policy variations.
Model for biomass co-firing
Coal price Taxes for Emission Effect of Cost of Biomass
coal costs green efficiency paying
combustion electricity loss capability
and heat
subsidy
Example UK
In coal co-firing the effect of green certificates could be some 54 EUR/t of pellets.
In new biomass CHP plants the effect of green certificates could be some +105 EUR/t of pellets.
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37. THE ABILITY TO PAY FOR WOOD IS CHANGING
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40. MODERN “CUTS” FROM WOOD –
“De la naturaleza a su mesa”
Wood Power &
Chips Heat
Pellets
Bark &
Residues
Power &
Heat Pulp Paper
Wood Pulp
Chips Mill
Fuels (e.g ethanol)
Cellulose Glucose Organic acids
Spent Solvents
Liquor Softners
Lubricants
wide range of
chemicals + polymers
Extractives Lignin Hemicelluloses
Fibre additives
Natural binders
Fatty acids Emulsifiers
Adhesives
Pharmaceuticals Hydrogels
Sub-bituminous coal
Antioxidants Sugar-substitutes
Fertilizers
Bioactive chemicals Furfural (e.g. nylon)
Carbon fibres
Other … wide range of
Thermo-plastics…
other chemicals
* Non-extensive lists
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41. CONCLUSIONS
Is the Digital Age Killing the Paper Industry ?
– Absolutely Not !
What Drives the Success of Eucalyptus ?
– Quality, Cost and Sustainability
Can Value Be Created With Bio-energy ?
– It all depends on policies and technologies
For countries like Uruguay and Brazil, rich in land, forestry technology
and competent people, well managed plantation forest translates into
many attractive business opportunities and in improved quality of life
for our people.
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42. Muchas Gracias !
João Cordeiro Jefferson Mendes
joao.cordeiro@poyry.com jefferson.mendes@poyry.com
+358 40 524 2502 +55 41 3252 7665
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