Swing seats - rising stars for 2015 - A Westbourne Communications presentation by Lewis Baston
Political power is on the move. The next generation: rising stars for 2015 proves the point. Since Westbourne’s launch in 2010, we have recognised that the tide is flowing out of Parliament and Whitehall. Ministers do not 'decide' in the way they used to. Whitehall is financially broke and tied in EU ribbons. The voters no longer defer to parties and politicians. And, most of all, the major political parties have lost their hegemony. At Westbourne we do not mourn these changes. The role of the modern public affairs professional is not to simply wine and dine establishment connections. The job is now about figuring out where the power has gone, who are now the key players, what are the key drivers of decision-making, and devising strategies for achieving business objectives. We celebrate transparency, engagement and accountability. We relish the job of helping our clients navigate modern government affairs. That’s what we mean by 'Change Opinion'. There is no clearer example of these changes than the fascinating battle over the 2015 General Election. In the past, observers could rely on single-graph headline polling and crude demographic groups for helpful insight. Times have changed. Most strikingly, modern voters have traded consistent tribal habits for strident consumer choice, the parties have lost their financial, ideological and grass-roots duopoly of political support, and partisan media-owners are diluted by peer-to-peer communications. As a result, individual MPs can now make a huge impact in their home patch, moving the needle of opinion by 10 per cent or more against the national swing. Smaller parties may hold the balance of power. In such a world, it is essential that any meaningful assessment of the election battle should be based on a seat-by-seat analysis of the battleground constituencies. Of course, the tone is set by the presidential battle at the despatch box, on the motorway poster sites and on the evening news. But the important battles are fought on the door-step between increasingly sophisticated candidates with loosening affiliations with their parties. This report gives a clear picture of the constituencies that count and the people who are winning the ground war. Report author Lewis Baston, is like a pointillist painter creating a dazzling landscape with dozens of individual touches of his brush. It is only when we get up close that we can see the artist’s technique.
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Swing seats - rising stars for 2015 - A Westbourne Communications presentation by Lewis Baston
- 1. Swing seats: the General Election of 2015 Lewis Baston For Westbourne Communications, January 2015
- 2. A new environment Electoral change since 2010
- 3. New features of the 2015 election Post coalition Lib Dems unpopular Rise of UKIP Rise of SNP Rise of Greens?
- 4. Things that might have changed but didn’t Same boundaries Same voting system Probably same low turnout TV debates? First term opposition is difficult
- 5. The half-empty stadium The decline of major party politics
- 6. Two main parties have lost… Votes Members/ place in society Loyalty Ideology/ confidence Nationwide appeal
- 7. 1951 2010 The electorate 1951 and 2010
- 8. 2010 2015? And on to 2015?
- 9. Some comforting certainties The safe seats
- 10. The majority of individual seats are easy to predict
- 11. Safe seats Big majorities Not threatened by swing or local factors Often demographic outliers Long serving MP Complacency and poor organisation Nomination usually equals election
- 12. A new generation in safe seats Con Labour Lib Dem Others Safe seats with retirements 22 24 2 1 Women retiring 1 7 0 0 New women candidates 7 (2 TBA) 13 (4 TBA) 1 1 New BAME candidates 5 0 0 0
- 13. Conservative Labour New MP keywords (More) female BME Law Finance Small business Londoners Female White ‘Real life’ Voluntary sector Law Local
- 14. Myths dispelled Not many ‘Special Adviser’ types Mostly locally known Not many family connections Fewer councillors than might expect Diverse life experiences
- 15. Heidi Allen (South Cambs) Lucy Frazer (SE Cambs) Conservatives in Cambridgeshire • Scientist, small business • Barrister
- 16. Tom Tugendhat (Tonbridge & Malling) Ranil Jayawardena (NE Hampshire) Conservatives
- 17. Ruth Smeeth (Stoke North) Keir Starmer (Holborn & St Pancras) Labour
- 18. Rebecca Long Bailey (Salford) Helen Hayes (Dulwich) Labour
- 19. Another certainty (maybe less comforting) National choice between Conservative and Labour leading government
- 20. We’ll have one of these as tenant of 10 Downing Street…
- 21. … thanks mostly to the electoral system Bad at translating votes into seats High ‘barriers to entry’ Tactical squeeze Relative majorities are enough to win Safe seats
- 22. Ed or Dave depends on much more than their national vote How much do ‘ground game’ and incumbency matter? Who does better out of gains from Lib Dems? How many seats will SNP take from Labour? How many will UKIP win (or tip the balance in)? Will Greens vote tactically? Will there be big regional differences?
- 23. Predicting the ‘unpredictable’ LSB ID Lad S EE EF Lad N Con 269 279 283 283 283 281/2 Lab 302 302 293 281 283 284/5 Lib D 31 24 33 26 26 28/9 SNP 21 18 22 36 33 29/30 UKIP 5 4 4 2 3 6/7
- 24. Prediction points NOBODY is predicting a majority Lab and LD do better in seat by seat work Con and SNP do better in ‘global’ prediction Nobody expects a working majority for a 2- party coalition There should be a way of arbitraging the Ladbrokes odds
- 25. New MPs if Labour wins… Female Voluntary sector Real life Law BME
- 26. Labour’s high fliers (if they make it) Keir STARMER Rowenna DAVIS Jessica ASATO Helen HAYES Sophy GARDNER Clive LEWIS
- 27. Questions?