Performance-indicator based policy-making in Austria
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The Impact of Big Data on the policy cycle. Presentation on European Data Forum EDF 2016
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Performance-indicator based policy-making in Austria
- 1. Performance-indicator based policy- making in Austria Policy Making in the Digital Era Johann Höchtl Department for E-Governance Danube University Krems, Austria Track on Data Driven Government June 29, EDF 2016, Eindhoven
- 2. Agenda 1. Governance with Complexity at Speed 2. Action Taking on Evidence 3. Wirkungsorientierte Steuerung – The Case of Austria 4. The Big Data powered Policy Cycle 5. Measures towards ePolicy Making 29.06.2016 EDF2016 - Johann Höchtl Danube University Krems 2
- 3. © SFGate, 7. Oct. 2013, http://www.sfgate.com/crime/article/Absorbed-device-users-oblivious-to-danger-4876709.php Speeding … CC0 ed_davad https://pixabay.com/photo-388253/ … on 19th century infrastructure
- 4. Digitization Connectivity Intelligence The Digital Virtuous Forces P. Parycek,G. Simonitsch, M. Fandler, P. Müller, 2014
- 5. MobilityBig Data Analytics Cloud Computing Digitization
- 6. Numbers at speed 1920: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): one employee 1929: The US in a Great Depression 1932: President Hoover supposed to take decisions on three year old numbers 1932: Russian immigrant professor Simon Kuznets invents what would become the GDP 1945: NBER +5.000 employees 29.06.2016 EDF2016 - Johann Höchtl Danube University Krems 6 “Migrant Mother” (1936), Public Domain
- 7. The Complexity of Numbers Component Amount (trillions) Percent Personal Consumption $11.21 69% Goods $3.87 24% Durable Goods $1.47 9% Non-durable Goods $2.43 15% Services $7.34 45% Business Investment $2.85 17% Fixed $2.74 17% Non-Residential $2.21 14% Commercial $.46 3% Capital Goods $1.06 6% Intellectual (Software) $.70 4% Residential $.53 3% Change in Inventories $.10 1% Net Exports ($.54) (3%) Exports $2.11 13% Imports $2.65 16% Government $2.86 17% Federal $1.11 7% Defense $.68 4% State and Local $1.74 11% TOTAL GDP $16.35 100% 29.06.2016 EDF2016 - Johann Höchtl Danube University Krems 7 http://useconomy.about.com/od/grossdomesticproduct/f/GDP_Components.htm Valentino Piana, A Graph Representation Of A Basic Macroeconomic Scheme: The Is-Lm Model: Economics Web Institute, 2001
- 8. Action Taking on Evidence 29.06.2016 EDF2016 - Johann Höchtl Danube University Krems 8 Decision Model Input Policy Discussion Policy Formation Policy Acceptance Provision of means Implementation Evaluation Agenda Setting Nachmias, David, und Claire Felbinger. 1982. „Utilization in the Policy Cycle: Directions for Research“. Review of Policy Research 2 (2): 300–308. doi:10.1111/j.1541-338.1982.tb00676.x.
- 9. Action Taking on Evidence 2.0 29.06.2016 EDF2016 - Johann Höchtl Danube University Krems 9 Decision Decision Making Model 2.0
- 10. The Case of Austria – Challenges • No long-term, legally binding budget management or long-term preview • Old budget: important management-related information missing • Only input and no output orientation: Who gets how much, instead of what has to be the outcome? • Lack of incentives for economic management of the budget • Small-sized, non flexible budget structure; lack of transparency • Missing Bigger Picture: What do we want to achieve with the budget? 29.06.2016 EDF2016 - Johann Höchtl Danube University Krems 10
- 11. The Case of Austria – Set up 2013: Implementation of the Principle of Outcome Orientation (Wirkungsorientierung), Global Budgets, Establishment of Federal Performance Management Office (FPMO) • Managing public administration based on its contributions towards achieving outcome in society (performance management) • Outcome statements, outputs and indicators per budgeting chapter • Performance management cycle: plan, implement, evaluate • Outcome oriented impact assessment 29.06.2016 EDF2016 - Johann Höchtl Danube University Krems 11
- 12. The Case of Austria – Outcome Orientation 1. Political objectives relating to a desired 2. societal outcome. It is the task of public administration to provide services = 3. Output. However, 4. external factors can play a role. Before services can be provided, the required resources = 5. Input must be ascertained. Finally, the 6. activities to generate output are carried out. 29.06.2016 EDF2016 - Johann Höchtl Danube University Krems 12 1. Model efficiency effectiveness Seiwald, Johann, Monika Geppl, and Andreas Thaller. 2016. Handbuch Wirkungsorientierte Steuerung - Unser Handeln erzeugt Wirkung. Wien: Bundeskanzleramt Österreich.
- 13. Implementation 29.06.2016 EDF2016 - Johann Höchtl Danube University Krems 13 5 headings 32 budget chapters global budgets detail budgets Budget structure Performance structure mission, strategy, outcome statement output statement performance contracts Annual Budget Supplements to Annual Budget MTEF, Strategy Report Performance Management: Integrating performance oriented budgeting and indicator systems in Austria. Ursula Rosenbichler & Alexander Grünwald, 2016
- 14. Implementation EDF2016 - Johann Höchtl Danube University Krems 14 | Outcome 1: Why this outcome? What is being done to achieve this outcome? What would success look like? Mission: Outcomes 1-5 29.06.2016
- 15. Outcome 1: Improving safety and security Why this outcome? • Safety and security in public and private life is a human right and essential to well-being. International comparisons show that Austria is one of the safest countries in the world. This high level of safety must be maintained and upgraded further. 29.06.2016 EDF2016 - Johann Höchtl Danube University Krems 15
- 16. Outcome 1: Improving safety and security What is being done to achieve this outcome? • Extending preventive work and awareness training • Combating crime effectively and efficiently with new methods and technologies • Special training programme on combating crime • Improving police response times (i.e. time between an emergency call and arrival at the scene) • Evidence-based human resource allocation • Analysing road accident patterns and identifying traffic hot spots29.06.2016 EDF2016 - Johann Höchtl Danube University Krems 16
- 17. Outcome 1: Improving safety and security What would success look like? • Crime rate: desired outcome 2013: <x%; starting level 2011: y% [definition: total number of crime incidents per 100,000 inhabitants, source: Crime Statistics, Ministry of the Interior] • Percentage of crimes solved: desired outcome 2013: >x%; starting level 2011: y% [definition: ratio of cases solved to total number of crimes, source: Crime Statistics, Ministry of the Interior] • Number of road accidents with injuries: desired outcome 2013: <x; starting level 2011: y [definition: total number of persons killed in road accidents, source: Road Accidents Statistics, Statistik Austria] 29.06.2016 EDF2016 - Johann Höchtl Danube University Krems 17
- 18. The Case of Austria – Monitoring & Controlling 29.06.2016 EDF2016 - Johann Höchtl Danube University Krems 18 2. Governance, Controlling, Evaluation
- 19. The Case of Austria – Evaluation • Review of the achievement of objectives • Evaluation along outcome and output statements • Indicators: target/performance- comparison, automated assessment of target attainment and verbal explanation of development • Outcome targets: Overall assessment of outcome target and verbal explanation of its environment 29.06.2016 EDF2016 - Johann Höchtl Danube University Krems 19 https://www.wirkungsmonitoring.gv.at/
- 20. The Case of Austria - Annual Federal Performance Report 29.06.2016 EDF2016 - Johann Höchtl Danube University Krems 20 |
- 21. The Case of Austria – Legal Framework • Federal Constitution Act – §51(8): Federal Administration has to agree on Global Budgets according to Outcome Orientation – §51(9): Further provisions in respect to Evidence based Policy Making, Controlling and Transparency • Act on Federal Budgeting – Details on Global Budgets and Detailed Budgets – (Requirement to assess financial consequences of acts and regulations) • Further detailed in Bylaws of Ministry of Finance (What to Measure, How to Measure, Requirements for Indicators) and Austrian Chancellery (Controlling across ministries) 29.06.2016 EDF2016 - Johann Höchtl Danube University Krems 21
- 22. The Case of Austria – Room for improvements • Lacking Integration of ICT-Systems, therefore additional efforts to report plans and implementation performance metrics. • Subjective & qualitative indicators • Reports on effectiveness arrive comparatively late and leave little time for policy adjustments 29.06.2016 EDF2016 - Johann Höchtl Danube University Krems 22
- 23. The Big Data Powered Policy Cycle 29.06.2016 EDF2016 - Johann Höchtl Danube University Krems 23 Volume • Terrabytes • Petabytes Variety • structured • unstructured (Documents, Emails, Audio, Video) Velocity • Sensors • Social Networks • Stream Orientation • Realtime Processing
- 24. N + 1 N Period N - 1 • The cycle does not account for the possibilities of Big Data Analytics. • Evaluation at period N+1 happens to late. • Precious time to re-focus measures or drop measures is wasted. 29.06.2016 EDF2016 - Johann Höchtl Danube University Krems 24 Policy Discussion Policy Formation Policy Acceptance Provision of means Implementation Evaluation Agenda Setting
- 25. The traditional model of policy making is not apt for the 21st century 29.06.2016 EDF2016 - Johann Höchtl Danube University Krems 25
- 26. The ePolicy Cycle • Evaluation can happen at every stage of the cycle • Enables swift and justified adaptions to policy making 29.06.2016 EDF2016 - Johann Höchtl Danube University Krems 26 Policy Discussion Policy Formation Policy Acceptance Agenda Setting Implementation Provision of means Höchtl Johann, Peter Parycek, und Ralph Schöllhammer. 2015. „Big Data in the Policy Cycle: Policy Decision Making in the Digital Era“. Journal of Organizational Computing and Electronic Commerce, Dezember, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10919392.2015.1125187
- 27. Big Data Analytics is an Enabler • Access to evidence data through Integration of diverse data sources; • Efficiency gains of traditional action taking through stream processing and real time analytics; • Higher levels of effectiveness by identifying new fields of action taking through pattern mining. 29.06.2016 EDF2016 - Johann Höchtl Danube University Krems 27
- 28. Measures towards ePolicy Making • Integrate ICT-Systems using EU Interoperability Building Blocks – Core Components, EIF 3.0 (upcoming), eInvoicing, eProcurement • Operate ICT-Systems using Cloud Infrastructure – FIWARE, Hybrid Cloud Models • Evolve Systems using an agile implementation approach – Perpetual Beta, Design for Failure • Monitor usage • Listen to your stakeholders • Design for Co-creation 29.06.2016 EDF2016 - Johann Höchtl Danube University Krems 28
- 29. Johann Höchtl Department for E-Governance johann.hoechtl@donau-uni.ac.at @myprivate42 github.com/the42 myprivate42.wordpress.com/ at.linkedin.com/in/johannhoechtl 17-19 May 2017 Danube University Krems CfP: http://tinyurl.com/cedem17cfp
Editor's Notes
- Common sense tells us that action taking should happen according to a rational model with reasonable and accountable facts and numbers.
- This chart illustrates how we link the budget structure with the performance structure. The total budget is divided into five headings and the headings again are divided further into 32 budget chapters. A budget chapter corresponds with the budget of a line ministry, however there are ministries who are responsible for two or three budget chapters. Examples of budget chapters are ”Interior”, Justice”, ”Social Security”. A budget chapter is subdivided into one to four global budgets. Global budgets are a kind of program budgets. One example is the ”Police”. At operational level we have detail budgets. These are budgets of authorities and agencies. One example is “Police department in the region x”. Each element of the budget structure has a corresponding element on the performance side. The planning documents contain all three elements: The available resources are discussed in the light of the desired outcomes and planned outputs. However in the official budget documents (MTEF – Middle Term Expenditure Framework - and strategy report, annual budget and supplement to annual budget), there is only a loose linkage, that means the total amount of money is discussed together with selected priorities. Within a ministry however there should be tighter coupling (see also performance contracts). The left hand column shows the planning documents where resources, objectives and indicators are defined. In spring we have the MTEF and the strategy report explaining the fiscal strategy. In autumn the draft annual budget is submitted to Parliament, containing an outcome statement per budget chapter and an output statement per global budget. The draft annual budget is accompanied by the annual budget supplement. The supplement contains a summary of the objectives set at operational level in the performance contracts. Rubriken: Recht und Sicherheit Arbeit, Soziales, Gesundheit und Familie Wirtschaft, Infrastruktur und Umwelt Kassa / Zinsen
- As we have heard before, performance information is integrated into the official budget documents. The annual budget contains an outcomes statement per budget chapter. This is the template. Each budget chapter starts with a mission statement. The mission statement describes in brief the tasks, that are covered by the budget chapter and gives interested citizens/the general public background information. Then line ministries can define up to five outcome objectives per budget chapter. Ministries have to give detail information about the desired outcome. They have to explain why there is a need for action (“Why this outcome?”) and add a description what is being done to achieve the outcome (“What is being done to achieve this outcome). One to five outcome indicators are required to measure the achievement of objectives (“What would success look like?”). Here the focus is on quantitative data. At least one outcome objective per budget chapter has to integrate the principle of gender equality.
- Here we have a fictitious example that illustrates what an outcome statement looks like in practice. Desired outcome: Improving safety and security in Austria Planned actions: extending preventive work and awareness trainings, improving police response times, evidence-based human resource allocation. In this example 3 indicators are used to measure the desired outcome: crime rate, percentage of crimes solved and road accidents with injuries. Each indicator contains a target for the next year and information about the current status. The comparison of the target with the current status allows Parliament/citizens and interest groups to discuss the level of ambition of objectives. Each performance indicator contains additional information, like the method of calculation and the data source. This is important in order to ensure a consistent use of indicators (e.g. in the annual budget and the annual performance report).
- Here we have a fictitious example that illustrates what an outcome statement looks like in practice. Desired outcome: Improving safety and security in Austria Planned actions: extending preventive work and awareness trainings, improving police response times, evidence-based human resource allocation. In this example 3 indicators are used to measure the desired outcome: crime rate, percentage of crimes solved and road accidents with injuries. Each indicator contains a target for the next year and information about the current status. The comparison of the target with the current status allows Parliament/citizens and interest groups to discuss the level of ambition of objectives. Each performance indicator contains additional information, like the method of calculation and the data source. This is important in order to ensure a consistent use of indicators (e.g. in the annual budget and the annual performance report).
- Here we have a fictitious example that illustrates what an outcome statement looks like in practice. Desired outcome: Improving safety and security in Austria Planned actions: extending preventive work and awareness trainings, improving police response times, evidence-based human resource allocation. In this example 3 indicators are used to measure the desired outcome: crime rate, percentage of crimes solved and road accidents with injuries. Each indicator contains a target for the next year and information about the current status. The comparison of the target with the current status allows Parliament/citizens and interest groups to discuss the level of ambition of objectives. Each performance indicator contains additional information, like the method of calculation and the data source. This is important in order to ensure a consistent use of indicators (e.g. in the annual budget and the annual performance report).