3. Team name
Estimation Techniques
Why ?
My teams all use planning poker to estimate effort, however I’ve noticed several things
starting to happen that are fairly common in teams using this estimation technique:
People get:
- Very caught up in the actual number, forgetting that it’s just an estimate
and wrong anyway.
- Very emotionally invested in being “right”, they start defending their
estimates, or giving in to the majority without discussion.
- There is confusion between team members about the proper way to
estimate effort.
80/20
Rule
When the real deal when estimating effort is
to get a Shared Understanding and Consensus,
it is just a way to plan and know where we are against the plan.
L.E.B.E
Rule
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4. Team name
Estimation Techniques
So, what’s the goal ?
The real deal when estimating effort is
to get a Shared Understanding and Consensus,
it is just a way to plan and know where we are against the plan.
80/20
Rule
Getting about 80% right estimates with 20% of the effort
Relative estimate vs. absolute
L.E.B.E
Rule
Less Effort Better Estimates
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5. Team name
Estimation Techniques
The Workshop
Content
Rules
-
4
Relative
Estimation
10 Minutes duration per exercise.
-
Team had to estimate items using a diff. technique.
-
1
4 Exercises.
Each team got a set of cards with items written on
them.
-
Each team got the same items so we could compare
between teams at the end.
-
When each team finished estimating, the facilitator
wrote results per team in a flip chart/white board,
and start the discussion about the technique.
-
The facilitator shared correct answers once each
team has completed each exercise.
-
A general discussion is hold about all techniques and
the team decides where we go from here
Absolute Estimates
2
3
Affinity estimation
Planning Poker
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6. Team name
Estimation Techniques
Exercise 1: Absolute Estimates
Description
The items to be estimated are dogs.
Instructions
- Each team have to estimate the weight of each dog(item) in kilograms
- Each team discuss about the item to get shared understanding
- After consensus, the team should decide what estimate would be assigned to each
dog (item)
Special note
- To be able to compare each estimation technique, all teams should try their best to
get results as soon as they can.
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7. Team name
Estimation Techniques
Exercise 1: Absolute Estimates Results
Item
Team 1
Team 2
Team 3
Team 4
Team 5
Correct
Answer
Chihuahua
3
Great Dane
90
Staffordshire
Bull Terrier
17
Appalachian
Mountain Dog
0
Border Collie
34
American
Cocker Spaniel
13
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8. Team name
Estimation Techniques
Exercise 2: Planning Poker Estimates
Description
The items to be estimated are country area. Remember that this technique is used for
relative estimation
Instructions
-
-
Use Spain as your reference point (Value assigned to Spain Area is 3)
Each team have to estimate the area of each country(item)
Each team discuss about the item to get shared understanding, then each person chooses a card from their
set that they think is the closes fit.
Everyone displays their cards at the same time (avoid influencing other between each other).
People discuss the outliers, usually the highest and lowest numbers to see of the people who selected them,
had a different understanding to everyone else.
After discussion, people re-vote taking in consideration anything uncovered in the discussion.
Once everyone converges on a number that is selected as the estimate.
If convergence is not reached by the third vote, then the team would take the highest number or majority
number.
Special note
- To be able to compare each estimation technique, all teams should try their best to get results as
soon as they can.
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9. Team name
Estimation Techniques
Exercise 2: Planning Poker Results
Item
Spain
Team 1
Team 2
Team 3
Team 4
Team 5
Correct
Answer
3
3
3
3
3
3
China
40
Luxembourg
0
Denmark
1
South Africa
8
Belize
1
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10. Team name
Estimation Techniques
Exercise 3: Affinity Estimation
Description
The items to be estimated are cars volume. Remember that this technique is used for
relative estimation
Instructions
-
-
-
Lay out one set of planning poker cards so that you have all the numbers.
Agree on a reference story, and place it next to the reference point. In this case put the card “Convertible”
next to the Planning poker card identified with the number “3”.
Give the stack of story cards to the first person in the team.
Each person has a turn where you can either:
- take a new car from the stack of story cards and place it where you think it fits, or
- Move a card already on the table to a new spot if you don’t agree with it.
- Note: You must always move a card if you don’t agree with the estimate rather than playing a new one
- Note2: If you play a new card it means you are happy with every card on the table.
After your turn you hand the cards to the next person.
If you do a full circuit of the team and one card has been moved each time, then you discuss it before
continuing.
- Note: People could explain why they are placing a card at a certain number, but remember, open
discussion just when a card was moved.
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11. Team name
Estimation Techniques
Exercise 3: Affinity Estimation Results
Item
Team 1
Team 2
Team 3
Team 4
Team 5
Correct
Answer
3
3
3
3
3
3
Motorbike
Startship
enterprize
SUV
Minivan
Convertible
Bus
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12. Team name
Estimation Techniques
Exercise 4: Relative Estimation
Description
The items to be estimated are Animal weight. Remember that this technique is used
for relative estimation
Instructions
-
Take all story cards and arrange them on the table in ascending size (ignore the reference point for now)
Decide what is bigger and what’s the same size (It can be done all team members together)
Once you the team has arranged all cards, only then assign numbers, starting with the reference point (the
“impala” in this case)
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13. Team name
Estimation Techniques
Exercise 4: Relative estimation Results
Item
Team 1
Team 2
Team 3
Team 4
Team 5
Correct
Answer
3
3
3
3
3
3
Elephant
Giraffe
Elephant
shrew
crocodile
snake
impala
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14. Team name
Estimation Techniques
Conclusions
What did we learn
- Ask the teams to take a look at all results and see what they have noticed.
- Ask them about the importance of having the same reference point (having 5 teams
working together on a single backlog)
- Ask the team if they would change anything about the way that they estimate based
on what we learn.
- Try to get an answer as action item to be implemented during the next sprint
Materials required
•
•
•
•
•
•
Cards with the items on them for each team
Planning poker cards for each person
A flipchart and marker to write up the results of each round for people to see
A stopwatch or cellphone with timing functionality
Some team members keen to learn about estimation, I did the workshop with 5 groups of 3-4 people.
An hour time box is sufficient if your team are used to estimating. Maybe more if your teams are new to it
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15. Team name
Estimation Techniques
Enjoy yourself
“As with any discipline, nothing beats practice coupled with
an ongoing desire to learn.”
Be truthful
Be open
Be enthusiastic
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