This document from the FAA provides a forecast for aviation activity from 2011 to 2031. It predicts substantial growth, with passenger numbers increasing by 560 million and revenue passenger miles more than doubling by 2031. Air traffic operations such as tower operations and aircraft handled are also expected to rise significantly. However, there are risks to the forecast like higher than expected energy prices, a weaker economy producing lower demand, infrastructure constraints at congested airports, increased airline consolidation leading to higher fares, and potential reductions in demand due to climate change. The forecast represents a continued recovery from the impacts of the recession, but more modest growth compared to past recoveries.

1. FAA National Federal Aviation
Administration
Forecast
FY 2011 - 2031
By: Nan Shellabarger
Director, Aviation Policy & Plans
Date: February 15, 2011

2. Agenda
• Review of 2010
• Assumptions
• Traffic/Activity
• Air Traffic Operations
• Summary
Federal Aviation 2
February 15, 2011 Administration

3. Review of 2010
• Traffic recovering slowly
– System passengers up 1.2%; RPMs up 2.2%; load factor up 2.1 pts
• Yield rebounds partially from 2009 decline
– Domestic mainline up 5.2%; International up 10.0%
• Industry returns to profitability
– Commercial carriers earn $3.0B; Passenger carriers earn $1.7B
• Air Traffic operations mixed
– Total FAA & Contract tower operations fell for 3rd consecutive year
– En route A/C handled posted first increase since 2007
Federal Aviation 3
February 15, 2011 Administration

4. Key Assumptions – Medium/Long Term
• Economic growth
– U.S. and Europe lackluster: 2% to 2.5% per year
– Asia and Latin America dynamic: 4% to 5% per year
• Energy
– Oil prices at $100 by 2018, exceed $110 by 2030
• Airline consolidation
– May continue to occur in various forms, but no impact on
overall level of demand
• Forecast is “unconstrained”
– Future demand not materially impacted by environmental or
infrastructure constraints
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February 15, 2011 Administration

5. CY 2011-31 Economic Growth
6.0%
Real GDP – AAGR
5.0%
4.6%
4.2%
4.0%
3.3%
3.0% 2.8%
2.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
U.S. Europe Asia Latin World
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February 15, 2011 Administration

6. U.S. Unemployment Rate
11.0
Actual 9.7% in 2010 Forecast
10.0
9.0
Percent
8.0
7.0
6.0 4.8% in 2024
5.0
4.0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031
2011 Base 2010 Fcst Pess Optim
Federal Aviation 6
February 15, 2011 Administration

7. Oil Prices
$160
Actual Forecast $157
$140
RAC $ Per Barrel
$120
$113
$100
$102
$80 $74
$60
$40
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031
2011 Base 2010 Fcst Pess Optim
Federal Aviation 7
February 15, 2011 Administration

8. System RPMs
2,000,000
Actual Forecast
1,800,000
1.7 Trillion in 2031
1,600,000
RPMs (MIL)
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
787 Billion in 2010
600,000
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031
2011 Base 2010 Fcst Pess Optim
Federal Aviation 8
February 15, 2011 Administration

9. System RPMs
1,800,000
Actual Forecast
1,600,000
1,400,000
RPMs (MIL)
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031
Dom. Mainline Dom. Regional International
Federal Aviation 9
February 15, 2011 Administration

10. System Enplanements
1,500,000
Actual Forecast
1,400,000
Enplanements (000)
1,300,000
1,200,000
1,100,000
1,000,000
1 Billion in 2021
900,000
800,000
700,000
600,000
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031
2011 Base 2010 Fcst Pess Optim
Federal Aviation 10
February 15, 2011 Administration

11. Passenger Enplanements
1,400,000
Actual Forecast
1,200,000
Enplanements (000)
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031
Dom. Mainline Dom. Regional International
Federal Aviation 11
February 15, 2011 Administration

12. System Load Factor
84.0
Actual Forecast
83.0
Load Factor (%)
82.0
81.0
80.0
79.0
78.0
77.0
76.0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031
2011 Base 2010 Fcst
Federal Aviation 12
February 15, 2011 Administration

13. Mainline Carrier Domestic Real Yield
14.0
Actual Forecast
13.5
Real Yield (2010¢)
13.0
12.5
12.0
11.5
11.0
10.5
10.0
9.5
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031
2011 Base 2010 Fcst Pess Optim
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February 15, 2011 Administration

14. US & Foreign Flag Passengers by Region
6.0%
2011 Base 2010 Fcst
5.1% 5.1% 5.2%
5.0%
4.5%
AA%GR: 2010-30
4.4%
4.2%
4.0% 3.9%
4.0%
3.4% 3.4%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Atlantic Latin Pacific Transborder System
CY
Federal Aviation 14
February 15, 2011 Administration

15. Cargo RTMs
100,000
Actual Forecast 93 Billion
90,000
80,000
RTMs (Mil)
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000 36 Billion
30,000
20,000
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031
2011 Base 2010 Fcst
Federal Aviation 15
February 15, 2011 Administration

16. General Aviation Active Aircraft
300,000
Actual Forecast
250,000
Active Aircraft
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031
CY
Piston Experimental, LSA, Other Turbine
Federal Aviation 16
February 15, 2011 Administration

17. General Aviation Hours Flown
40,000
Actual Forecast
35,000
30,000
Hours (000)
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031
CY
Piston Experimental, LSA, Other Turbine
Federal Aviation 17
February 15, 2011 Administration

18. En Route Aircraft Handled
70,000
Actual Forecast
65,000
A/C Handled (000)
60,000
55,000
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031
2011 Base 2010 Fcst
Federal Aviation 18
February 15, 2011 Administration

19. En Route Aircraft Handled
70,000
Actual Forecast
60,000
Operations (000)
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031
Commercial Non Commercial
Federal Aviation 19
February 15, 2011 Administration

20. Passengers by Hub Size: 2030 vs. 2010
1,000,000
900,000 80% increase 2010 2030
Enplanements (000)
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
67% increase
200,000
61% increase
100,000
0
Large Medium Small
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February 15, 2011 Administration

21. Operations by Hub Size: 2030 vs. 2010
45,000
Commercial 22% increase
40,000 Non Commercial
Operations (000s)
35,000
30,000
25,000
61% increase
20,000
15,000
40% increase
10,000
5,000
0 2010 2030 2010 2030 2010 2030
Large Medium Small
Federal Aviation 21
February 15, 2011 Administration

22. FAA and Contract Tower Operations
70,000
Actual Forecast
60,000
Operations (000)
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031
Commercial Non Commercial
Federal Aviation 22
February 15, 2011 Administration

23. Forecast Risks
• Energy Prices
– Increasing volatility
– Supply/demand balance may not be as favorable as assumed
• Economy
– Strength of recovery still uncertain
• Capacity Discipline
– Will carriers continue to exercise restraint with strengthening
demand and improved profitability?
• Congestion
– Growth fastest at largest airports
Federal Aviation 23
February 15, 2011 Administration

24. Forecast Risks
• Airline Consolidation
– Yields and fares higher
– More financially stable industry?
• Climate Change
– Problem is global
– Path forward requires multiple solutions
Federal Aviation 24
February 15, 2011 Administration

25. Summary
• Industry recovery continues in 2011
– More modest than prior recoveries
– International recovering faster than domestic
• Substantial growth in demand and activity
– 560 million additional passengers on US carriers by 2031
– Traffic (RPMs) more than double
– Tower operations increase by 35%; aircraft handled up 61%
• Significant risks
– Energy prices: may have higher levels and increased volatility
– Economy: may have lower demand
– Congestion: Capacity (infrastructure and technology) at congested
airports may not keep pace with demand
– Airline consolidation: may lead to higher fares
– Climate change: may lead to reductions in demand
Federal Aviation 25
February 15, 2011 Administration

26. Federal Aviation 26
February 15, 2011 Administration