Weichert Princeton Office January 2011 Market Update

Weichert, Princeton Office January 2011 Market Update/ Forecast Seminar Offers analysis of the Princeton & Greater Princeton, NJ real estate markets & effective strategies to buy and sell.

Presented by: Joshua D Wilton Broker/ Sales Rep. Weichert Realtors Princeton, NJ O 609-921-1900 www.weichert-princeton.com www.facebook.com/weichertprinceton

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Economic Trivia? How many months have we been out of a recession?

In our local area (CT/NY/NJ Lehigh Valley, PA), the number of homes for sale (Weichert and non-Weichert listings) has steadily increased over the past four years. Variance % 2010 to 2009 NY (Ashby) +13.11% CT (Doepper) +118.53% Passaic/Hudson/Bergen NJ (Bixon) + 5.86% Western Central NJ/Lehigh Valley PA (McDonald) +6.78% Northern and Central NJ (Prevete) +9 .24% Eastern Central/Shore Points NJ (Waters) +10.63% Southern NJ (Williams) +10.87%

Lawrence Yun Chief Economist ~ NAR 2011: State of the Market “ There will be two steps forward, One step back, with sizable local Market differences,” -Lawrence Yun Chief Economist ~ NAR December , 2010 “… but the trend nevertheless will be a rise in home sale activity in the upcoming years.”

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],2011: Where’s it going?

Affordability will Spur Recovery 2011: State of the Market

Affordability Index 2011: State of the Market Source: NAR Housing Affordability Index 1971 to 2010 Definition: A measure of the financial ability of US Families to buy a house. 100 means that families earning the national median income have just the amount of money needed to qualify for a mortgage on a median priced home. Higher than100 means they have more than enough. Lower than 100 means they have less than enough. 184.5 Nov 2010 Affordability Index

2011: State of the Market +8.29% 1 yr change ‘ 09 vs ‘10

Historically Low Interest Rates 2011: State of the Market 4.69% 30 yr fixed rate 2010

A long term outlook in NJ & Mercer County ‘Supply & Demand’ Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast

It’s the economy… Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast Otteau.com

NJ Housing Permits Source: Census In thousand units

NJ Housing Permits Source: Census RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS AUTHORIZED 2000-2008 COUNTY 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Total Atlantic County 1,625 1,685 2,020 2,285 2,075 2,002 1,893 1,136 794 15,515 Bergen County 2,847 1,784 1,771 1,289 2,142 2,972 2,164 2,957 1,311 19,237 Burlington County 2,775 2,184 2,359 1,805 1,516 1,475 2,784 1,037 976 16,911 Camden County 796 757 1,160 1,934 1,413 1,706 1,183 1,191 895 11,035 Cape May County 1,242 1,403 1,422 1,693 2,149 2,433 1,580 1,081 485 13,488 Cumberland County 255 256 310 374 566 630 737 683 336 4,147 Essex County 1,491 1,548 1,588 2,235 2,343 3,128 3,284 1,854 1,314 18,785 Gloucester County 1,337 1,635 1,802 1,859 2,050 2,075 1,141 920 788 13,607 Hudson County 1,338 1,116 1,534 2,116 3,808 4,498 4,275 3,081 3,229 24,995 Hunterdon County 616 685 602 814 648 506 350 316 206 4,743 Mercer County 1,283 1,355 1,428 1,188 1,641 1,296 847 700 625 10,363 Middlesex County 2,460 1,884 1,999 2,306 2,622 3,206 2,567 1,597 1,020 19,661 Monmouth County 2,912 2,194 2,372 2,756 2,628 2,584 2,820 2,060 1,526 21,852 Morris County 2,684 1,577 1,914 1,555 1,427 2,503 1,670 1,052 795 15,177 Ocean County 5,633 3,830 3,534 4,009 3,818 2,904 2,114 2,160 1,527 29,529 Passaic County 457 631 689 829 763 647 850 760 432 6,058 Salem County 161 180 170 307 334 297 298 148 198 2,093 Somerset County 2,282 1,439 1,530 1,260 1,362 1,220 1,058 926 791 11,868 Sussex County 719 808 679 587 612 668 603 360 302 5,338 Union County 776 551 681 1,198 1,399 1,278 1,593 1,123 673 9,272 Warren County 896 765 877 585 620 560 512 258 146 5,219 New Jersey 34,585 28,267 30,441 32,984 35,936 38,588 34,323 25,400 18,369 278,893

Long Term Supply … Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast Richardson Commercial

Long Term Demand … Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast http://lwd.dol.state.nj.us/labor/lpa/pub/factbook/merfct.pdf

Long Term Demand in Mercer County … Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast Source: https://edis.commerce.state.nc.us/docs/countyProfile/NJ/34021.pdf (Mercer County) Population & Growth Population Annual Growth Rate 2013 Total Population 383,677 0.6% 2008 Total Population 371,963 0.7% 2000 Total Population 350,761

1. Real Estate is Local Top Five Rules for Understanding the Real Estate Market: 2. Real Estate is Local 3. Real Estate is Local 4. Real Estate is Local 5. Real Estate is Local

2009 v 2010 Market Comparison Town 2010 Listed 2010 Sold 2009 Listed 2009 Sold 2010 dom 2009 dom 2010 sold $ 2009 Sold $ Pton Twp 313 176 291 157 96 112 $880k $979k Pton Boro 124 65 96 60 110 109 $884k $760k West Windsor 497 311 446 303 60 71 $536k $517k Lawrence 550 284 554 305 91 86 $339k $301k Hopewell 550 168 342 149 122 108 $528 $478 Ewing 641 253 567 257 97 103 $208k $121k East Wind 433 176 501 268 97 96 $263 $281 Plainsboro 326 200 322 230 61 67 $391 $363

Mercer County SF Settled Units 01-10 Trendmls.com

Mercer County SF Inventory 01-10 Trendmls.com

1. You Understand the Local Market That You are Buying into or Selling out of… -Inventory - Location - Sales Patterns - Neighborhood, Location - Style of Home, Beds, Baths, etc

Market Absorption Scale (Absorption Rate in Months) 5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market.

Absorption Rate by Price Range Weichert has been studying market conditions for more than 3 decades and has found a direct correlation between market absorption and property values. As absorption rates increase beyond a normal market level of 5-6 months, property values depreciate annually .

Sample Market Absorption Rate 107 current active listings 4 reported sales in last 30 days = 24.3 months absorption rate Anytown., NJ 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market.

Market Scale for Supply & Demand High Supply/Low Demand Low Supply/High Demand Normal Weichert has been studying market conditions for more than 3 decades and has found a direct correlation between market absorption and property values. As absorption rates increase beyond a normal market level of 5-6 months, property values depreciate annually. Note: This Market Scale is valid only for absorption rates between 1 and 12 months. Market Absorption in Months 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Normal

2007 thru 2009 Market Activity Comparison: Week of 1/18 2006 Active Inventory 2006 Pending Sales (previous 30 days) 2007 Active Inventory 2007 Pending Sales (prev. 30 days) 2008 Active Inventory 2008 Pending Sales (prev. 30 days) 2009 Active Inventory 2009 Pending Sales (prev. 30 days) 2010 Active Inventory 2010 Pending Sales (previous 30 days) Pton. Boro - - 38 2 37 1 39 2 29 2 Pton Twp - - 112 4 84 5 104 6 111 4 W. Windsor 117 14 138 5 107 8 96 11 72 6 Lawrence 119 16 179 9 180 2 161 9 186 4 East Windsor 154 12 174 10 173 9 175 11 189 3 Ewing 143 6 161 10 237 14 207 29 244 4 Hamilton 423 27 456 39 523 10 515 50 549 25 Hopewell Twp. 132 10 155 3 138 4 27 0 23 1 Cranbury 10 0 11 3 27 1 27 0 23 1 Plainsboro 104 8 115 11 89 7 65 2 50 3 South Brunswick 155 5 223 23 172 17 198 27 Montgom. 98 4 110 8 100 4 86 4 107 12

1/18/11 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings Princeton Boro: All Styles 29 2 14.5 4 2 2 6.9% 5 3 4 Pton -Boro Condo/ Thouses 12 1 12 2 1 1 8.3% 1 1 1 Pton-Boro Single Family 17 1 17 2 1 1 5.9% 4 2 3 Pton Twp: All Styles 111 4 27.8 14 10 5 4.5% 5 3 11 Pton Twp: Condo/ Thouses 20 2 10 3 1 1 5% 0 1 3 Pton Twp: Single Family 91 2 45.5 11 9 4 4.4% 5 2 8

1/18/11 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Li1stings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings West Windsor: All Styles 72 6 12 10 4 12 16.7% 9 9 1` West Windsor Condo/ T.Houses 19 3 6.3 5 2 3 15.8% 3 0 1 West Windsor 55+ 3 0 99 1 1 -- -- 0 1 4 West Windsor Single Family 50 3 16.7 4 1 9 18% 6 8 15 Lawrence: All Styles 186 4 46.5 31 27 28 15.1% 12 5 18 Lawrence: Condo/ THouses 66 1 66 12 11 10 15.2% 5 2 5 Lawrence: 55+ 11 0 99 1 1 -- -- 2 0 1 Lawrence: Single Family 109 3 36.3 18 15 18 16.5% 5 3 12

1/18/11 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings PlainsboroAll Styles 50 3 16.7 14 11 7 14% 10 0 5 Plainsboro Condo/ THouses 28 2 14 10 8 2 7% 6 0 3 Plainsboro 55+ 7 0 7 1 1 0 0 2 0 1 Plainsboro Single Family 15 1 15 3 2 5 33% 2 0 1 Cranbury: All Styles 23 1 23 1 0 3 13% 2 0 1 Cranbury: 55+ 1 0 99 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 Cranbury: Single Family 22 1 22 0 -1 3 13% 1 0 1

1/18/11 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings Ewing: All Styles 244 4 61 26 22 37 15.2% 26 7 10 Ewing : Condo/ T.Houses 37 2 18.5 5 3 5 13.5% 3 0 0 Ewing 55+: 8 0 99 0 0 -- -- 0 0 0 Ewing: Single Family 199 2 99.5 21 19 32 16.1% 23 7 10 East Windsor: All Styles 189 3 63 16 13 37 19.6% 25 3 2 East Windsor: Condo/ THouses 125 2 62.5 10 8 29 23.2% 17 3 1 East Windsor: 55+ 12 0 99 0 0 -- -- 6 0 0 East Windsor: Single Family 52 1 52 6 5 8 15.4% 2 0 1

1/18/11 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings Hopewell Twp. All Styles 126 8 15.75 10 2 20 16% 11 4 10 Hopewell Twp. Condo/ T.Houses 8 3 3 1 -2 3 37.5% 1 0 4 Hopewell Twp.: 55+ 9 0 9 1 1 -- -- 0 0 0 Hopewell Twp Single Family 109 5 22 8 3 17 15.5% 10 4 6 Hamilton: All Styles 549 25 22 86 61 99 14% 55 16 43 Hamilton: Condo/ THouses 100 5 20 17 12 21 21% 9 3 4 Hamilton: 55+ 32 1 32 3 2 -- -- 3 0 3 Hamilton: Single Family 417 19 23 66 47 78 19% 43 13 36

1/18/11 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings Robbinsville All Styles 133 12 11 18 6 26 20% 12 4 12 Robbinsville Condo/ T.Houses 60 4 15 10 6 10 17% 7 2 4 Single Family 73 8 9 8 0 16 22% 5 2 8 Hightstown Boro: All Styles 52 0 99 6 6 8 15% 7 1 0 Pennington 9 3 3 0 (3) 0 0 2 1 3 Hopewell Boro 13 2 6.5 0 (2) 3 23% 0 1 3

Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings South Brunswick All Styles 199 16 13 37 21 41 21% 60 3 17 South BrunswickCondo/ T.Houses 60 4 16 11 7 12 20% 19 2 5 South Brunswick 55+ 26 0 9999 12 12 12 46% 14 0 2 South Brunswick Single Family 113 16 7 14 -2 17 15% 17 1 10 Monroe: All Styles 424 26 16 36 10 43 10% 75 6 36 Monroe: 55+ 277 20 14 22 2 33 12% 40 2 22 Monroe: Single Family 147 6 25 14 8 10 6% 35 4 14

1/18/11 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings Montgomery All Styles 107 12 8.9 11 -1 14 13% 15 6 15 Montgomery Condo/Twnhms 24 3 8 3 0 7 29% 2 2 5 Single Family 83 9 9.2 8 -1 7 8% 13 4 10 Hillsborough All Styles 247 26 9.5 42 +16 28 11% 34 13 16 Hillsborough Condo/Twnhms 84 12 7 17 +5 14 16% 13 6 5 Hillsborough Single Family 163 14 11.6 25 +11 14 8% 21 7 11

Understand the Market That You are Buying/ Selling in… I want to live/ sell in West Windsor…..

West Windsor Colonials By Price 5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market. Price Actives Pendings Ab. Rate $300-$500 8 2 4 500-$650 12 0 99 $650-$799 12 0 99 $800-$999 6 0 99 $1 million + 2 0 99*

Princeton Twp. Single Fam. by Price Alone 5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market. Price Actives Pendings Ab. Rate $400-$600 5 1 5 $600-$799 13 1 13 $1.0 – 1.35 19 1 19 $1.36-$1.65 10 1 10 $1.65-$2.0 19 0 99*

Princeton Twp. Single Fam. by Price Alone 5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market. Price Actives Pendings Ab. Rate $2.0 - $3.0 10 0 99 $3.0-$5.0 10 0 99 $5.0+ 1 0 99

Buying/ Selling Strategies Source: MLS

‘ I don’t want to buy a house and then watch it drop in value!’

Purchase Price $329,000 Loan Amount $317400 Down Payment $11,515 Monthly P&I $1802 Appreciation/Depreciation Home Value 1st Year -3% $319,130 2nd Year 0% $319,130 3rd Year 1% $322,321 4th Year 3% $331,990 5th Year 5% $348,590 5 Year Appreciation/Depreciation $19,500 Tax Benefit Vs Paying Rent @ $1600/mo 1st Year $5,000 $19,200 2nd Year $5,000 $19,200 3rd Year $5,000 $19,200 4th Year $5,000 $19,200 5th Year $5,000 $19,200 5 Year Total $25,000 $96,000 Total Gain $44,200 Create Equity v Pay Rent

Purchase Price $329,000 Loan Amount $317400 Down Payment $11,515 Monthly P&I $1802 Appreciation/Depreciation Home Value 1st Year 5 $319,130 2nd Year 3% $319,130 3rd Year 2% $322,321 4th Year 2% $331,990 5th Year 2% $348,590 5 Year Appreciation/Depreciation $48,590 Tax Benefit Vs Paying Rent @ $1600/mo 1st Year $5,000 $19,200 2nd Year $5,000 $19,200 3rd Year $5,000 $19,200 4th Year $5,000 $19,200 5th Year $5,000 $19,200 5 Year Total $25,000 $96,000 Total Gain $73,529 Create Equity v Pay Rent

+ The Amortization Schedule on a Loan Yearly Schedule of Balances and Payments Year Beginning Balance Payment Principal Interest Cumulative Principal Cumulative Interest Ending Balance 2010 $315,646.96 $21,625.92 $4,374.96 $17,250.96 $6,128.00 $24,508.72 $311,272.00 2011 $311,272.00 $21,625.92 $4,621.30 $17,004.62 $10,749.30 $41,513.34 $306,650.70 2012 $306,650.70 $21,625.92 $4,881.98 $16,743.94 $15,631.28 $58,257.28 $301,768.72 2013 $301,768.72 $21,625.92 $5,157.36 $16,468.56 $20,788.64 $74,725.84 $296,611.36 2014 $296,611.36 $21,625.92 $5,448.28 $16,177.64 $26,236.92 $90,903.48 $291,163.08

Appreciation (conservitive): $19,500 + Amortization: $20,109 + Tax Benefit of Home Ownership $25,000 + Low Interest Rates: $5000 ___________________ total 5 year gain = $69,609

[object Object],1 Source: Freddie Mac 2 As reported in the Washington Post 12/26/09 3 As reported on CNBC 12/22/09 Average annual rate (30-year fixed-rate mortgage) 1 How Long Will Interest Rates Remain Low?

1. ‘I am going to time the Market and buy/ sell at the time when inventory & buyer count is in my favor…’ Source: MLS

Weekly Guests Thru the Weichert Princeton Open Houses, 2009

Source: MLS Inventory Levels, Princeton Twp. New Jersey, 2009

3. ‘I am going to wait until the price comes down further and then make an offer/ if I lower my price I will get lower bids…? Source: MLS

Source: trend mls Relationship of Price Reductions to ‘Pending Sales’

3/16/10 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings PlainsboroAll Styles 74 18 4.1 36 17 9 12.2% 0 1 7 Plainsboro Condo/ THouses 36 7 5.1 22 15 2 5.6% 0 0 5 Plainsboro 55+ 17 3 5.7 3 0 - - 0 0 1 Plainsboro Single Family 21 8 2.6 11 2 7 3.3% 0 1 1 Cranbury: All Styles 24 1 24 5 2 5 20.8% 1 1 2 Cranbury: 55+ 1 0 99 0 -1 - - 0 1 0 Cranbury: Single Family 23 1 24 5 3 5 21.7% 1 0 2

3/16/10 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings Princeton Boro: All Styles 31 1 31 10 6 4 12.9 2 1 3 Pton -Boro Condo/ Thouses 10 1 10 4 1 1 10 2 0 1 Pton-Boro Single Family 21 0 99 6 5 3 14.3 0 1 2 Pton Twp: All Styles 102 8 12.8 30 21 10 9.8 1 0 6 Pton Twp: Condo/ Thouses 13 2 6.5 4 2 2 15.4 0 0 3 Pton Twp: Single Family 89 6 14.8 26 19 8 9 1 0 3

Jeff Smith, Loan Officer Weichert Financial Services Financial Benefits and Process of Home-Ownership.

Monthly Payment Savings ,[object Object],Monthly payments are based on interest rates of 5.5% on 9/13/2009 vs. 4.25% on 9/13/2010. One Year Ago Today Mortgage Amount $300,000 $300,000 Monthly Payment (P&I) $1,704 $1,476 Savings $228/month

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The interest rate assumption is based on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. $252 difference per month for 30 years The Opportunity in 2011

[object Object],Establish Your Buying Power

The Impact of Pricing on the Salability of Your Home..…

It’s About Price West Windsor: 79% Homes currently Under Contract: 33 Under contract within 30 days of Listing at the Right Price or Re-positioning in line with the market : 26 East Windsor: 77% Homes currently Under Contract: 31 Under contract within 30 days of Listing at the Right Price or Re-positioning in line with the market : 24

It’s About Price Plainsboro: 100% Homes currently Under Contract: 14 Under contract within 30 days of Listing at the Right Price or Re-positioning in line with the market : 14 (7/7) Robbinsville: 70% Homes currently Under Contract: 13 Under contract within 30 days of Listing at the Right Price or Re-positioning in line with the market : 9

It’s About Price If your listing hasn’t gone under contract in the last 30 days and the price is not adjusted it will not go under contract in the next 30.

Negotiations are about leverage, use the listing price as part of yours… Source: MLS

Princeton Twp. 2010 The Price Trend Came up with a price of $850,000. I recommended a price of $799,000.

Negotiations are about leverage, use the listing price as yours… Listed at $799,000. 5 offers, sold at $942,000. The seller had control.

Princeton Sold Homes, YTD 2010 Days on Market

List to Sales Price Ratio YTD 2010

2 . The Effect of Staging on the Value of a Home .

The process of preparing homes for sale regardless of Price, Location, or Condition To achieve the maximum sales price in the minimum marketing time. The GOAL is to appeal to the broadest range of BUYERS .

Non-Staged The Way You Live In Your Home…

… And The Way We Market And Sell A House Are Two Different Things. Staged

“ The Investment in Home Staging is Always Less than Your First Price Reduction!”

Non-Staged Buyers Only Know What They See …

… Not The Way It Is Going To Be. Staged

Based on a StagedHomes.com survey of over 400 homes across Canada & the Continental US prepared for sale by an Accredited Staging Professional (ASP™) from June 2007 through November 2007.

Why Promote Home Staging ? The average increase in sales price of an ASP Staged vs. non-Staged home is 6.9% . That is an additional $31,050 on a $450,000 sale.

The average marketing time of an ASP Staged vs. non-Staged home is 80% less . Why Promote Home Staging ?

What is ‘ Pre-Inspection?’

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],2011: Other Trends

Home Inspection WHAT DOES PRE-INSPECTION INCLUDE? The standard home inspector's report will review the condition of the home's heating system, central air conditioning system (temperature permitting), interior plumbing and electrical systems; the roof, attic, and visible insulation; walls, ceilings, floors, windows and doors; the foundation, basement, and visible structure.

PRE-LISTING Home Inspection DOESN’T THE BUYER DO THE HOME INSPECTION?

All Negotiations, including real estate, are all about negotiation and control. Who is in control? Right Price Right Staging All Repairs are done in advance. Offer a Home Warranty to the buyer..

PRE-LISTING Home Inspection Data on where most sales fall apart: attorney review, home inspection. Fall Thru Percentage 2007: 26% Fall Thru Percentage 2010: 6% .

Home Improvements I am moving out of the house, I do not want spend too much money to move. Or I just spent $$ on a new kitchen, I want $$$$$$ back on that investment when I move.

Weichert Family of Companies What will a real estate company do for me?

Making Your Purchase as Smooth as Possible Buying a home involves the careful coordination of many people. Choosing a real estate team you can count on will make the process smoother and easier.

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[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],What Will a Weichert Agent Do for Me?

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Become a Fan! www.facbook.com/weichertprinceton www.weichert-princeton.com We post a ton of great market data on these two sites.

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Weichert Princeton Office January 2011 Market Update

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