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Workshop Outline
• Deprivation and disability free life expectancy
• Projections for long term conditions
• Long term conditions by age group
• HIV Prevalence
• Depression
• Dementia
• Diabetes estimates and projections
• Other long term conditions
• What can third sector agencies do?
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High impact third sector roles
• Integration between health and social care
• Home from hospital
• Community interventions
• Self management
• Resilience and coping
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Disability Free Life expectancy and
Deprivation
Life expectancy and disability free life expectancy in Hertfordshire
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
0.05.010.015.020.025.030.0
Deprivation
Index of Multiple Deprivation (higher number = high deprivation)
Age
Life expectancy Disability free life expectancy
Sources: EMPHO/LHO, 2006-10; ONS 1999-2003; DCLG, 2010
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Long term conditions by age group
Long Term Health Problem or Disability by Health by Age
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 to 15 16 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 to 74 75 to 84 85 and over
Age
PercentageofPopulation(%)
Hertfordshire: Bad
or very bad health
Hertfordshire: Day-
to-day activities
limited a lot
England: Bad or
very bad health
England: Day-to-
day activities
limited a lot
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Long-term conditions
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2012
2016
2020
2012
2016
2020
2012
2016
2020
2012
2016
2020
2012
2016
2020
2012
2016
2020
2012
2016
2020
2012
2016
2020
2012
2016
2020
2012
2016
2020
N Herts. E Herts. Brox. Wel Hat. Stev. Dac. St Alb. H.mere Three R. W.ford
East & North Herts CCG Herts Valleys CCG
#OfPeople
Long-Term Conditions Projections
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Late HIV Diagnoses
Late HIV Diagnoses* in Hertfordshire
107
13
15
19 11 12 7
5 16
5
<5
0
20
40
60
80
100
2008/10
2009/11
2010/12
2008/10
2009/11
2010/12
2008/10
2009/11
2010/12
2008/10
2009/11
2010/12
2008/10
2009/11
2010/12
2008/10
2009/11
2010/12
2008/10
2009/11
2010/12
2008/10
2009/11
2010/12
2008/10
2009/11
2010/12
2008/10
2009/11
2010/12
2008/10
2009/11
2010/12
2008/10
2009/11
2010/12
England Hertfordshire Three Rivers Dacorum Watford St Albans Stevenage Broxbourne Hertsmere Welwyn
Hatfield
East Herts North
Herts
PercentageofallHIVdiagnoses
Source: Survey Of Prevalent HIV Infections Diagnosed (SOPHID), HIV and
AIDS New Diagnoses Database (HANDD), and CD4 Surveillance - analysed
by the Health Protection Agency
*Adults (aged 15 years or more) w ho have been diagnosed w ith HIV and have
a CD4 count of less than 350 cells per mm3 w ithin 91 days of HIV diagnosis.
Numbers respresent the numbers of people affected in the three year period
betw een 2010 and 2012
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Depression prevalence in Hertfordshire
Prevalence of depression diagnosis, all ages, in Hertfordshire
101884 109492
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2010/11 2011/12 2010/11 2011/12
England Hertfordshire
Percentage
Source: HSCIC Compendium of Population Health Indicators
(Quality and Outcomes Framew ork, QMAS database)
Numbers indicate how many people are affected
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Dementia prevalence in Hertfordshire
Dementia prevalence in Hertfordshire, all ages
5319
5566
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
2010/11 2011/12 2010/11 2011/12
England Hertfordshire
Percentage
Source: HSCIC Compendium of Population Health Indicators (Quality and
Outcomes Framew ork, QMAS database)
Numbers indicate how many people are affected
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Dementia
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Numberofpeople
Year
People aged 65 and over predicted to have dementia, by
age, projected to 2020, Hertfordshire
90+
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
Source: www.poppi.org.uk
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Estimated diabetes prevalence in
Hertfordshire adults
Estimated total (diagnosed and undiagnosed) diabetes prevalence in adults (16+)
6.9%
6.6%
7.3%
7.8%
8.3%
7.3%
7.6%
8.2%
8.6%
8.8%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2012 2015 2020 2025 2030
Hertfordshire England Source: Public Health England, Diabetes prevalence model for local authorities
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Estimated prevalence of long term
conditions Hertfordshire in 2011
• COPD – 2.74% of people in Hertfordshire,
approximately 30700 people
• CHD – 4.69% of people in Hertfordshire,
approximately 52500 people
• Stroke – 2.19% of people in Hertfordshire,
approximately 24500 people.
• Cancer – approximately 5000 new incidences of
all cancers per year.
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High impact third sector roles
• Integration between health and social care
• Home from hospital
• Community interventions
• Self management
• Resilience and coping
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Further information
• http://jsna.hertslis.org- Health and Wellbeing in
Hertfordshire
• www.hertlis.org- Local Information System
• www.pansi.org.uk - Projecting Adult Needs and
Service Information
• www.poppi.org.uk - Projecting Older People
Population Information System