Youth and islamic awakening1

Scientific chart of the International Conference on Youth and
Islamic Awakening:
Secretary General of the Conference: Dr. Ali Akbar Velayati
Scientific secretary of the Conference: Dr. Abdullah Mobini

Members of the Scientific Committee:
Dr. Ibrahim Motaqi/ Dr. Manouchehr Mohammadi/ Dr.
Seyyed Mohammad Raees-Zadeh/ Mohammad Ruivaran/
Ali Mohammad Fouladi/ Dr. Hamid Reza Akhavan-Fard/
Dr. Asghar Qaedan/ Dr. Mustafa Malakootian/ Dr. Hossein
Sharifi Taraz-Karami/ Dr. Saeed Tavakoli/ Dr. Abdulhamid
Sahrayi/ Ali Sabet/ Dr. Nabiollahi Rouhi/ Seyyed Mehdi
Hosseini/ Dr. Niazi/ Dr. Reza Kalhor/ Dr. Hojjatollah
Izadi/ Dr. Mostafa Izadi

Papers of the International Conference on Youth and
Islamic Awakening

Compiled by the scientiﬁc committee of conference

Editors: Seyed Mehdi Hosseini, Tahereh Zare, Seyed
Kamaloddin Raﬁee, Seyyed Hossein Hosseini, Maryam
Golbaz
Layout: Rouholamini Institute
Cover design: Abna’ Institute
Translators: Abna’ Institute
Publisher: Abna’ Institute
First published in January 2012 (Bahman 1390)
Circulation: 2000

CONTACT
09. A survey on the effects of Islamic
Awakening on United States’ security and
interests in the Middle East and Northern
Africa

57. Analytical glance to Supreme
Leader’s attitude about aerial changes at
Middle East & North of Africa

86. Clarifying Role of Islamic Revolution
in Development of Islamic Awakening

109. Expansion of Islamic Awakening in
the Middle East

130. Honor›s Signiﬁcance from
Viewpoint of Leader In Light of its Key
Role In Islamic Awakening

144. Ideological transformations and
Islamic movements in the Middle East
and North Africa

159. Imam Musa al-Sadr›s role in
encouraging the youth in the Islamic

awakening wave Awakening
187. Establishing
international Islamic unity 251. Role of Social networks
based on religion, wisdom, in Egyptian revolution
morality and science
267. PEERS &
203. Islamic awakening and STUDENT ACTIVISM
Young Generation IN MALAYSIA: FROM
CHE GUEVERA TO
214. ISLAMIC IMAM KHOMEINI TO
AWAKENING; FACEBOOK
MUSLIM NATIONS
BACKWARDNESS AND 295. The challenges facing
THE ROLES OF YOUTHS Islamic awakening and the
IN RESTORING THE LOST youth›s role in confronting
GLORY. them

228. THE ENLIGHTNED 305. The Role of Islamic
YOUTH; Awakening in Repelling the
AN ISLAMIC WORDVIEW World Zionism Conspiracy
AND AGE CHALLENGE
326. The Third Wave of
239. Plots, Threats and Islamic Awakening in the
Methods of Arrogant Powers Middle East And the West›s
and International Zionism Plot, Regional Tensions and
for Tackling the Islamic Radicalism

Introduction:

The raise in the awareness of the Islamic Ummah over the past years
has led to the Islamic Awakening which can mark the beginning of
series of institutional changes in the history and civilization.

Islamic Awakening is the culmination of knowledge and experience,
and magnificent representation of the Islamic heritage, civilization,
and great Muslim figures and leaders. The movement is the rise of
intelligence, energy and the increased knowledge of the people who
are regarded as the principal beneficiaries of the uprising. This, in fact,
has realized the long-standing expectations of the Islamic Ummah in
the Muslim countries that were mostly ruled by puppet rulers over the
centuries.
The First Conference on Islamic Awakening, held in Tehran on
September 17-18, 2011, was attended by more than 700 scholars,
resistance leaders, media personalities and political and cultural
6 activists from various Islamic parties and organizations from around
the world. The intellectual and historical background and latest
developments, challenges and prospects of the movement were
discussed and analyzed during the conference and the prominent
observers and intellectuals exchanged their ideas on the issue. The
opening ceremony included the illuminating remarks of Supreme
Leader of Islamic Revolution, Grand Ayatollah Khamenei.
The «World Assembly of Islamic Awakening» and its permanent
secretariat were also established in Tehran in order to extend the
scope of the connections between the intellectuals and to monitor
the developments taking place at the hearts of the Islamic awakening
movement.
Besides pursuing the legislations of the first conference, the Secretariat
is assigned with the responsibility to facilitate the organization
and holding of the following meetings, including the International
Conference on Youth and Islamic Awakening.
The general objectives of the conference are as following:

A - Regeneration and the implementation of the Islamic principles,
values and goals based on the Islamic Sharia and the Holy Quran;
B – Revving the Islamic and national dignity of the Muslim countries;
C – Establishing the new international Islamic power and civilization
based on religion, rationality and morality;
D – Facilitating the interaction between currents, personalities and
figures and exchange of experience and ideas between the movements;
E – Confronting the influence of the hegemonic powers on the new
political order;
F – Devising the new model of Islamic democracy to replace the
current Western models;
G – Strengthening the national spirit of self-esteem and confidence in
dealing with the invasion of the hegemonic powers;
Accordingly, the intellectuals and scholars were called to send their
papers and analysis on six core subjects of discussion which is as
following:
1 - Theoretical, ideological, intellectual and institutional issues and the
fundamental framework of the Islamic awakening and youth
2 - The role of youth and factors leading to the Islamic Awakening
7
3 – Examining the weaknesses and threats faced by the process of
Islamic Awakening and youth
4 - Perspectives and future prospects of Islamic Awakening and Youth
5 - The Islamic Revolution, models, achievements, youth and the wave
of Islamic awakening
Of more than 200 papers received in the secretariat, a final number of
40 papers and more than 70 abstracts were selected by the scientific
committee of the conference. Some other papers will be delivered in
the marginal meetings and workshops.
The broad range of issues discussed in the papers submitted to the
conference proves the sensibility and importance of the Islamic
Awakening among scholars and scientific experts in the Muslim
countries.
We appreciate all people who have contributed to the conference and
helped us with their thoughtful comments. We hope this would be the
beginning of new chapter in the glory of the Islamic Ummah, Inshallah.

A survey on the effects of Islamic Awakening on ...

A survey on the effects of Islamic Awakening on
United States’ security and interests in the Middle
East and Northern Africa

Fatemeh Morsali

Introduction
We would fully understand the Middle East’s status
and its strategic importance when we refer to “Jurdis Fon
Luhausen”, the Austrian retired military General who
believed that the Middle East was the center of the old
world, whose center held the Persian Gulf, known as the
center’s center (heartland). The thing matters in this region,
is not just the oil, but if we consider the world atlas, we
see that the oceans have penetrated into Africa and Eurasia
nowhere else as much as this region. The Indian Ocean has
10 penetrated into the region through its two arms of the Red
Sea and the Persian Gulf, while the Atlantic has entered the
region through the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea.
Between the two oceans which are the same distance from
African and Asian coasts, lies the ancient land of Ur on
the estuaries of the rivers Dedjlah and Forat. The region
is the most strategic part throughout the old world. Any
turmoil caused by external factors in the region will have
consequences for both Europe and Africa continents, that
is, the evolutions occurred in the region are likened to a
stone thrown into a pond, whose ripples are visible through
the whole pond.
The Middle East owns speciﬁc characteristics such as
embracing or proximity to land bridges, passages, straits
like Sina, Caucasus, the Strait of Gibraltar, Dardanelle,

International Conference on
Youth and Islamic Awakening

Bab-el-Mandab, Hormuz Strait; and having seas such as
Mediterranean, Black, Caspian, and Red seas together
with the Persian Gulf. These characteristics have provided
the best connection paths between the end of vast Eurasia
and Africa continents. Moreover, the Middle East and
northern Africa are strategic regions in the center of Islamic
civilization and culture. The region holding a population of
700 million people, with 22 government-nations; is divided
to different cultural (linguistic and ethnic) zones: Indo-
European Plateau zones (Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan
with a total population of 275 million people), Anatolia
(Turkey with a 71 million-population), Mesopotamia (Iraq
with a population of 25 million), Persian Gulf and Arabian
Peninsula (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, United
Arab Emirates, and Yemen with a total population of 54
million), Mediterranean region (Jordan, Lebanon, Syria,
Palestine and Israel with 31 million people), North Africa
and Berber (including Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, 11
Tunisia having a population of 165 million). Islam (except
the Hebrew-Jewish region in the occupied lands) is a
suitable common point of convergence throughout the whole
region. The very same common point of convergence has a
good potential for having challenges with globalization and
the cybernetic cultural imperialism (which is imperialism
equipped with virtual space, satellite, and web-based
media). More clearly, it has caused a bilateral conﬂict
between the West and the Middle East in western secular’s
modernity context and the political Islam.
The Persian Gulf with an area of 233,000 square
kilometers, not only providing more than 30 percent of
the global oil production capacity, but hosting the most


important and the biggest exporters of oil in the world,
i.e. Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and United Arab
Emirates. 16 percent of global oil imports are produced in
this region, which supplies 13 percent of consumption in
the US, 45 percent in Germany, and 75 percent in France
and Japan. So the interruption would cause a great loss
in the US and other countries’ economies. Because of the
geo-economic and geo-strategic importance of the Persian
Gulf region, Washington is seeking major substantial goals
in the region, caused by the great interests hidden in the
Persian Gulf. These interests are of crucial importance for
the United States.
Following the occurrence of popular uprisings and
revolutions in the Middle East and northern Africa, based
on anti-totalitarian and anti-imperialistic natures, construed
as Islamic Awakening; ultra-regional powers especially
the United States and its regional ally, Israel, have faced
12 security threats in different aspects.
This article aims at determining the aspects and measuring
the effects of Islamic Awakening on the security and national
interests of the United States of America throughout the
Middle East and northern Africa. The independent variant
in this study is the Islamic Awakening, and the dependent
variant is the US security, while the limiting factor has been
considered as the Middle East and northern Africa.
The article also tries to answer the basic question as “What
security effects has Islamic Awakening had in the strategic
Middle East and Africa for the US?” In order to answer
this question, the article assumes that the popular uprisings
among the Islamic nations have started to threaten the US
security and crucial interests due to their anti-totalitarian


and anti-imperialistic natures.
The article can be divided to three major sections, the
ﬁrst of which deals with US security and interests in the
Middle East and northern Africa; the second of which
studies demarcating the popular uprisings; and the last
part of which describes the effects of Islamic Awakening.
In order to measure the effects of Islamic Awakening on
different elements of the US security in the Middle East
and Northern Africa, the article tries to simultaneously
employ two methods for gathering necessary data, so
that the dimensions and aspects are clearly illuminated.
The above-mentioned methods include documentation
(library) and inductive (direct observation). Moreover,
the research method is either descriptive (integrative) or
exploratory, while the data analysis method is hermeneutic
and descriptive.

Theoretic issues 13
Islamic Awakening: A comprehensive phenomenon
ignited by the Muslim elites concurrent with the West’s
colonial intentions together with the scientiﬁcally-
underdeveloped Muslim world, which gradually spread to
the people. The Islamic Awakening emanates both from
intrinsic (colonialism) and extraneous (degeneration)
factors. Since started by Sayed Jamaleddin Asadabadi, the
movement has experienced four evolutionary waves:
A-1) First wave of Islamic Awakening: This wave
of Islamic Awakening which started since the ancient
colonialism in the Muslim world; has had characteristics
such as being corrective and dialogue-centered,
individualism, obscurity of the political system sought by


the reformists, and the lack of system. In the other words,
no major revolutionary moves are seen in this stage, hence it
was mostly carried out individually by the Muslim scholars
or through trips or creating journals or books. During this
period, the elites often prescribed no alternatives for the
ruling governances, and usually expected the rulers to
change their attitudes, rather than to change the systems.
During the first wave, the reformists and activists enjoyed
no major group, organization, nor political party. They
merely managed to create an organization consisting of
influential rulers or scholars and never tried to organize the
people. The only exception in this category can be Hassan
al-Banna who created Muslim Brotherhood organization in
Egypt. Among the intellectual leaders of the first wave are
Jamaleddin Asadabadi, Iqbal Lahuri, Sheikh Muhammad
Abduh, Abdol-Rahman Kawakibi, Abul-Ali Maududi, and
Hassan al-Banna.
14 A-2) Second wave of Islamic Awakening: The second
wave is different from its previous stage, as during this
stage, reformism and individual moves almost disappeared,
and more effective moves against the West’s multilateral
pressure were proven to be necessary. During this stage,
from 1948 to 1990, Islam gets more ideological, and
Islamic political attitude moves towards armed conflict due
to the specific evolutions in the Islamic world, and replaces
the individual and passive Islam. Among numerous social,
political, and cultural grounds of the second wave, one can
mention the creation of Israeli Zionist regime recognized
by the United Nations, Declination of Arab nationalism in
fighting the occupiers of al-Quds, the necessity of alternative
ideology, Colonists’ shift from traditional colonialism to


modern colonialism, the distinction of aspects of western
culture in the Islamic world, West’s efforts to empower
seculars throughout the Islamic world and make them
depend on western powers, and ﬁnally the coherence and
unity of the clerics after the unsuccessful experience of
the Constitutional Revolution. During the time, Darul-
Islam vs. Darul-Harb concepts (Muslim States versus Non-
Muslim States) are bulked out among Muslims, agitating
Islamists to ﬁght the West or unpopular West-backed
regimes. The occurrence of the Islamic Revolution in Iran
in 1979 is among the most important factors of the Islamic
Awakening. The establishment of Islamic groups such as
Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement Hamas, Islamic
Jihad Movement, Lebanon Hezbollah, the Supreme Council
for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), Islamic Unity
Party of Afghanistan, Islamic Movement of Afghanistan,
Tunisia al-Nahda, Algeria Islamic Najjah Front, is among
the major results of the Islamic Awakening (table number 15
1). The substantial strategies innovated by the Islamic
Revolution of Iran regarding the Islamic Awakening
include the innovation of Quds Day, the Rally to exonerate
from the pagans during the Hajj ceremony, opposition to
the peace process in the Middle East and supporting the
Intifada, media support for Islamists’ campaigns around the
Islamic world, refraining from recognizing Israel, and the
annual holding of International Conference to support the
Palestinian Intifada. Among the common characteristics of
the Islamic movements of the second wave are as follows:
Reiterating Islam, handling the systems; intellectual,
geographical, and social comprehensiveness; being multi-
centered, and constancy and persistence. Imam Khomeini


(PBUH), Sayed Muhammad Baqir al-Sadr, and Sayed Qutb
are known as the intellectual leaders of the second wave of
the Islamic Awakening.
A-3) Third wave of Islamic Awakening: Islamic
Awakening ﬂourished following the restless period of
the revolution and the subsequent defense in war. Iran’s
religious democracy on one hand, and the experience of
war and defense on the other hand made the Islamists in
other countries with a good social status, to start forming
a political system; a move which faced crack down. Other
grounds and temporal conditions of the third wave, causing
another aspect of Islamic Awakening are as follows: the
end of the cold war and the collapse of the Soviet Union,
globalization, normalization of ﬁghting terrorism by the
West, development of international media through Islamic
world such as al-Alam, al-Kowsar, Aljazeera, al-Minar
networks, increased military presence of the West in Islamic
16 countries, starting the peace process in the Middle East, and
Lebanon Hezbollah’s great victories in 2001 and 2006.
A-4) Fourth wave of Islamic Awakening: The fourth wave
was started in recent months in northern Africa and the
Middle East after the 26-year-old Tunisian man Muhammed
Bu Azizi committed suicide on December 17, 2010 in the
city of Sidi Bouzid. The wave fast spread to Egypt, Libya,
Bahrain, Yemen, Jordan, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait,
Oman, and Algeria. The recent uprisings had some roots
in common such as humiliation, internal totalitarianism,
dependence on West, corruption of the ruling system,
unemployment and vast poverty; and some properties such
as being Islamic, being popular, opposition with the US,
opposition with Zionism, and being affected by the Iranian


Islamic Revolution. Among the intellectual leaders of the
two recent Islamic Awakenings are Ayatollah Khamenei
and Sayed Hassan Nasrallah.
National Interests: It is deﬁned as the most important
motives and values, the most supreme goals and the most
vital needs of a sovereign government-nation which forms
and guides the international actions and behaviors. Priority
and the superiority of a national interest is also a dependent
of its vitality and necessity. According to a report by the
US commission for the national interests, the US pyramid
for the national interests include: crucial interests, extra-
important interests, important interests, minor or less
important interests. The crucial US national interests are
those interests that are crucial for protecting and insuring
the existence and the welfare of the American nation.
These interests in the Middle East necessitate that Israel is
recognized as an independent nation, no general disruption
or permanent limitation is caused in supplying energy to 17
the world; and none of the regional enemies of the US gain
nuclear energy. The US extra-important interests are those
that if breached, the US will suffer a great loss but it will
still be able to protect its nation. Based on these interests,
the Persian Gulf must be free of any anti-US regional
power; peace process in the Middle East progresses towards
success; Washington maintains a good relationship with
pro-West Arab nations in the region and these countries are
actively present in the region, and the terrorism is under
control. The US important interests are the interests that if
neglected, there will be consequences for the White House
in providing welfare for the American nation. Accordingly,
regional countries need to adopt a balanced political system


and respect the human rights. The Commission adds that
minor national interests are not dispensable in fact, but
these interests are of importance, though their direct effect
on the US ability to keep the welfare for its people is not
that crucial (figure 1).
In a broader point of view, the US key interests until
2025 are as follows:
• Existence of Israel and complementing peace process in
the Middle East;
Accessing oil
Preventing the emergence of a regional authoritarian foe;
Preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction;
Winning political and economical reforms, and
consequently bolstering internal stability;And fighting
terrorism.
Security: In an objective context, security means the lack
18 of threats against the gained values; and in a subjective
definition, it can be defined as the lack of fear over one’s
interests. Among the many characteristics of security,
one can mention the relativism which is the evolution of
the semantics and the instance of security for the players
in different situations. Meanwhile, subjectivism means
emotional predominance in objective aspects of security
and eventually inexpressiveness means refraining from
limiting it in a special zone or level. Security could be gained
through individual, social, national, regional, international,
and global levels; and in different instances of cultural,
social, judicial, military, economic, environmental, and
political aspects.
C-1) National interest is composed of two elements which


are completely coherent: internal and foreign security. The
internal dimension of security is deﬁned as the nation’s
security against evident and hidden threats inside the
borders. These threats can be political (such as uprisings,
separatism, etc.), economic (economic disruptions and
crisis, etc.), military (coup d’état, and domestic war), and
social (riots and social mutinies); every one of which will
pressure the national government and threats its existence.
The foreign aspect of national security, deals with
international threats against a government that can be
political (isolation and enforcing economic pressures),
military (attack or threats of invasion, the enemy’s efforts to
boost military capacities), economic (economic sanctions),
cultural, or social. In fact, different aspects of national
security are likened to different links of a chain. If any single
link is endangered, it will have considerable consequences
on other links.
C-2) Regional Security has been presented by Barry 19
Bouzan and a group of Copenhagen School scholars in
1998. Accordingly, the world is divided to numerous
security bunches and every bunch is studied according
to its speciﬁc issues. Therefore, the world is divided to
six security zones including Asia, Middle East, Europe,
Africa, North America, and South America. The criteria for
regional security are discipline, governments and regional
norms. On the other hand, war, competition, imbalance,
and organized crimes are considered as threats to regional
security. Harsh and semi-harsh methods are also applied as
means to provide security for the region.
Security Threats: Security threats are located on the
border between threat and risks. In this context, danger and


terms related to that all mean passing the threat threshold,
and entering potential security threats zone. Meanwhile,
through the zone prior to security threats, the risk is
recognized and considered as a stage of potential threats.
The spectrum for potential threats (possible dangers) can
be defined in two different ways. The starting point at this
spectrum is known as the discussion, and the finishing
point is called the challenge. Danger-threats spectrum can
also be divided into three modes of alarm, danger, and the
crisis. Therefore, this spectrum includes alarm, danger,
and critical conditions (figure 2). This spectrum shows that
the threat itself has six main conditions and the security
threats include the border between potential threats and
actual threats. Security threat is a situation in which the
threat’s agent and issue have targeted the goals of security
reference and the critical assets of threat zone, but it is not
yet categorized as dangerous threats.
20 The criteria to recognize the threat zone status (country,
system, and the player) against the threats consist of general
criteria and specific criteria. Briefly saying, general criteria
for a threat in order to be considered in the danger spectrum-
actual threats are as follows:
- The threat has targeted the security reference goals or
the critical assets’ infrastructures;
- The threat has been proven to be true, or it is likely to be
proven true;
- Existence of a percentage of vulnerability in threat zone
against the issue and the agent of the threat;
- Inefficiency of capabilities in threat zone in order to
create an equilibrium regarding the threat,
- Support provided by a vast group of decision-makers


and strategic policy-makers to securitize the threat;
- Fighting the threat as the most urgent solution.
In order to define the degree of dangerous threats,
the exclusive criteria can be mainly categorized as:
Vulnerability against the threat, and the consequences of
the threat. Accordingly, three criteria could be implemented
to determine the degree of vulnerability and its proportion
with the danger degree in actual threats spectrum, which are
as follows: preventive power-weakness, protective power-
weakness, and restorative power-weakness. Consequently,
three degrees can be mapped for the three conditions
of dangerous threats: very high vulnerability (critical
condition), high vulnerability (dangerous condition), and
medium vulnerability (alarm condition).
The second criterion to define the degree of dangerous
threats was introduced as the consequences of the
threat. This criterion can also be measured through three
characteristics such as threat severity, threat range, and the 21
threat depth. Considering the characteristics, three degrees
of consequences for the three degrees of dangerous threats
include: Destructive consequences (critical condition),
Severe consequences (dangerous condition), and
Considerable consequences (alarm condition).
In a general description of security threat, one can define
it as the threat against the security values. Security values or
critical values are in fact the focal point for the security in
every system and security level. Some define this center as
the security reference. Security reference is something, the
security of which must be provided. Therefore, threatening
that would be interpreted as a security threat.
On the other hand, as mentioned in the explanations of


national security, security threats can also be divided into
categories as political, economic, environmental, military,
cultural, social, and technological. So these threats can be
dealt with in two domestic and foreign levels.
In order to fully recognize the aspects and security
consequences of Islamic Awakening, we need to study
the Middle East’s role in defense and national security
strategies of the United States. Then we will deal with
plans and strategies taken by the White House regarding
the Middle East, and ﬁnally the uprisings will be separated
and categorized.
1. Considering the US security geography to separate the
popular uprisings in the region
Security geography is an expression similar to political
geography, but due to its variety and vastness, provides a
wide perspective for the researchers. All the centers that
threaten the political and social stability of the society are
22 dealt with in the security geography zone, together with
recognizing the logic governing each center. Regarding the
method, it is descriptive, and nature-wise, it is considered
as inter-disciplinary. Security geography owns its particular
levels, aspects, and priorities. The threat-producing centers
can be divided into three levels of national, regional, and
global. The most important aspects are cultural, political,
social, environmental, economic, military, technical, and
scientiﬁc. Regarding the priority or severity, it is categorized
as potential or actual, and also medium-term, short-term,
and long-term.
One of such strategic regions in the US security geography
is the Middle East. Following the September 11 events, the
Middle East has been considered as key strategic interest


in Washington›s defensive and security policies, and also
regarded as the White House›s focal point in international
politics.
The US strategies and security policies in the Middle
East and its crucial subsystem, the Persian Gulf, are based
on a number of major axes, the most important of which are
as follows:
- Easy and inexpensive access to the oil in the region,
- Securing a comprehensive security for Israel and
achieving results in the peace process between Arabs and
Israel,
- Preventing the emergence of regional powers in the
Middle East and the Persian Gulf,
- Fighting Islamism.
According to the ﬁnal report presented by the
US Commission on National Security/21st Century
(USCNS/21), the greater Near East is a region in which
Washington has key allies. It is the only region in the world 23
where the US military deployment has been constantly
continuing after the cold war era. Therefore, through the
West›s point of view, the greater Near East is a region with
a great amount of importance and of course with numerous
problems. This report says the fundamental structure of
the US regional policies must be based on maintaining and
empowering the US allies and friends. By developing the
relations between the allies, Washington will widen the
peace and stability.
We, therefore, can conclude that the Americans and
specially the neo-conservatives believe that in the
international arena, the basic roots of threat against the US
security lies in the Middle East. And so unless Washington


cannot cause serious changes in the region, these threats
will be there. One of the strategies of the White House is to
keep its presence in the region, both virtually and physically.
Accordingly, the preventive policy does not always work
and the US must maintain its preparation for a military
action together with other countries when such cases
happen: when the US friends or allies are endangered; when
the access to critical resources has been endangered for the
international community; and when a regime has decided to
seriously hurt the US interests. The report also adds that the
US might not be able to prevent more serious threat, having
to bolster its military presence in order to back Israel,
prevent the emergence of a regional power, and to prevent
certain countries to gain weapons of mass destruction. As
General James Jones, the former NATO commander said
regarding Islamic world and the modern military policies,
the new axial strategy for NATO in the 21st century is to
24 focus on the Middle East and northern Africa.
Therefore, regarding military presence in the Middle
East, the US has carried out numerous plans. What follows
are just a portion of different plans US has had in order
to be present, be inﬂuential, control the situation of the
regional countries and direct interference in those countries
internal issues: Establishing several military bases in Saudi
Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain together with reinforcing
the present bases in the Indian Ocean, Mediterranean,
increasing forces and equipments in the region with a full
support for the Zionist regime of Israel (ﬁgure 2), Creating
and empowering Taliban in Afghanistan, forming a trilateral
military alliance composed of US, Turkey, and Israel,
selling weapons to Persian Gulf Arab rulers, and increasing


war ships and creation of marine installations in the region.
So the US military presence in the region is necessary for
establishing the American hegemony in the international
arena. This situation could enable the US to benefit from
the future developments in the region, and consequently
to reinforce its international status. We see that the new
document for the US national security and the US project
for the 21st century also confirm the issue. But the last case
of US soft policies is the plan known as Greater Middle
East. This plan was first presented by General Colin
Powel, the then Secretary of States, during a speech in
Heritage Foundation. «Middle East is a vast region, being
so important to the Americans. Millions of people worship
in the churches and the mosques in ME and many holy
sites have been located there. The US and its policies face
numerous challenges and threats, each of which affects our
national interests and the regional countries› interests. We,
therefore, will fight against these challenges and threats, as 25
we are determined and insistent in this regard.» said Powel.
At the time, Powel declared the establishment of the
Enterprise Foundation, and vowed that the US would
support the regional plans to perform political and social
reforms, and also to improve educational systems. He
also pledged to support region›s citizens regarding their
campaigns in gaining political freedoms and establishing
democracy. The Republican administration of Bush in
November 2003 publicized the Greater Middle East plan,
in which there are a number of visible and hidden goals
by the United States. The announced goals for such a plan
have been developing western democracy and civil society,
purposefully developing of knowledge and developing


economic opportunities. But the hidden goals of the Greater
Middle East plan are as follows:
Maintaining Israel’s security: Some believe that the most
important reason for the US to present such a plan and the
subsequent attack on Iraq, was due to the close ties between
Washington and Tel Aviv. In this regard, Mark Weber,
the American expert and the director of the Institute for
Historical Review in California says: “Greater Middle East
plan is a part of Bush administration adventurous efforts to
increase the US and Israel’s benefits in the region.”
Dominating oil markets and deposing OPEC: The
Middle East embraces some 70 percent of the global oil
reserves. To fully understand the importance of oil for the
United States, we could refer to Eric Lauran. He says by
taking the office by Bush in January 2001, it was not the
terrorism that topped his agenda, but the energy. The reason
is evident through Dick Cheney’s comments when he said:
26 “The future world needs a 50-million barrel of extra oil
per day, and we will find these extra barrels in the Middle
East.” On the relationship between the Greater Middle East
plan and controlling the oil reserves in the region; Noam
Chomsky’s comments are self-explanatory: The Greater
Middle East plan is nothing but rhetoric, as the US main
goal is to control the Persian Gulf, because this region is
an incredible strategic source of power and the biggest oil
reserve, so every country who seeks the global dominance
must dominate this region.
Changing the geographical map of the Middle East: This
goal can be clearly seen in the then Secretary of State’s
comments, Condoleezza Rice. On July 24, 2006 she met
the then Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Ulmert, saying: “And


now it’s the time to build a new Middle East, and that’s
not important whether others like this new Middle East or
not.” This goal was evidently obvious in the 33-day war
of Lebanon. As the Zionist regime of Israel planned the
war with direct cooperation with the US in order to disarm
Hezbollah, and then attack Syria which is an opponent to
the Greater Middle East plan, and then to attack Iran to
completely dominate the region. In fact, Israel and the US
wanted to anchor the resistance crescent including Iran,
Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas movement which are all
among serious opponents of the Greater Middle East.
Maintaining the US hegemony: Among other US goals
in the Greater Middle East plan is to culturally dominate
the region which is being performed through soft policies.
Another important region is the Horn of Africa including
most of the Eastern African countries and the Nile valley.
Horn of Africa is a titled used for the whole horn of Africa,
Sudan, and the countries east of the great lakes. This region 27
is geo-politically ranged through the Red Sea and its political
geography complies that of the Middle East. In the Pentagon
doctrine and before establishing the AFRICOM (African
region Command), operational management of the region
complied the central Middle East command, and the whole
Africa was commanded under the European Command
of the US military. Ben Gurion, the Israeli prime minister
(1948-1954) commented on the strategic importance
of the Red Sea: “The existence of Israel depends on this
sea”. The traditional attention of the US to this region has
substantially changed after the Cold War. The US motives
and causes to be attracted to this region can be summarized
in the following dimensions:


Trying to increase political-military dominance in the
region and develop its global hegemony;
The US is aware of geo-strategic importance of the region.
Horn of Africa has strategic reserves such as oil, natural
gas, Iron, bauxite, and copper;
Changing the regional power balance and coincidence
in security-political goals of global powers, as China and
India’s efforts to be present in this region and their high
investments to extract and explore oil have made the White
House take political-security measures to prevent the
interference of opponents;
Increasing Islamist movements in the region is a serious
threat for the US national security and interests. Therefore,
Washington has formed security-military alliances with
Christian countries in the region such as Ethiopia, Kenya,
and Uganda in order to tackle any possible danger from
Islamic Fundamentalists.
28 These strategic regions have recently undergone changes
due to popular uprisings, with the result that the US regional
security has been threatened. For instance, Foreign Relations
Council, having a considerable inﬂuence on power centers
and ruling structures in the US, held a meeting on June 5,
2006 titled as “The Emerging Shia Crescent Symposium”
chaired by Richard Haass. One of the conclusions was that
Shia political geography in the Middle East has a high
potential to form some democratic uprisings in medium-
term, which can have conﬂicts with the US Middle East
interests in some areas. In separating these uprisings, we
have tried to implement the parameter of US security and
national interests. These criteria include military, economic,
and political. In the other words, similar to Nickson’s


Doctrine, after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the
Cold War and attempts to establish a mono-polar system,
the US created a new set of regional security based on three
pillars: military pillar, political pillar, and economic pillar.
In implementing this policy, countries like Bahrain, Yemen,
Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, and Qatar in the military
pillar; Egypt, Tunisia, and Jordan in the political pillar; and
Libya together with Saudi Arabia in the economic pillar are
the major players.
The first separation and classification of the popular
uprisings in the region:

Bahrain
Bahrain is a Sheikdom, ruled unconditionally by “Sheikh
Isa bin Salman al-Khalifah” and in next generations the rule
is passed from father to son. Since Mars 6, 1999 the country
is ruled by “Sheikh Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifah”. The most
important active political group in Bahrain is “Islamic 29
Front for Liberation of Bahrain” which acts clandestinely.
This group is basically Shia and it is mostly composed
of Shia and Sunni lower walks of life in Bahrain society.
Their slogans are Islamic Revolution against Al-Khalifah
regime, contradicting any dependence on East or West and
believing in the slogan “No West, No East”, and they aim at
preparing the Bahraini people, inciting their revolutionary
spirits, making them familiar with the spirits and realities of
Islamic principles.
As majority are Shia and minority Sunnis rule in Bahrain,
the relation between people and the ruling regime has
always been likened to fire under the ash, and the regime
has threatened and suppressed the Islamists during the past


30 years. As Ayatollah Modarresi, the leader of Bahraini
Shias, has often been jailed or exiled due to his supporting
the Islamic Revolution. On the other hand, despite the very
limited area, the country is now considered as the most
important US military base in the Persian Gulf and the Iraq
Mission is mainly supported from Bahrain. Currently, a
number of American air force and navy personnel and also
a group of British Royal Air Force are stationed in Bahrain
to patrol the air space and control the security of Hormuz
Strait.
Bahrain’s maximum passiveness can be seen against
Washington when it delegated a part of its soil to the Fifth
Fleet of the United States Navy to be stationed in al-Fajeer
military base in return for an annual aid of 6.7 million
dollars. In strategic defense analysis, Washington has
defined a long-term presence in this base. As in February
2008 a 60-year contract was signed between US and Bahrain
30 for the Navy’s Fifth fleet to be stationed. Around 5,000
Marine Corps are in the base. This fleet is operating under
the management of US Central Command (CENTCOM),
commanded by General James Mattis. The US Navy’s Fifth
Fleet is commanded by Admiral Marc Fox. He claims that
his fleet is one of the levers of the US power to maintain
energy security especially in the strategic Strait of Hormuz,
thorough which 20 percent of the world’s oil passes.
According to a report by the US Congress Research
Center published on July 7, 2011 titled “Bahrain: US
Reform, Security, and Politics”, US military aid to Bahrain
Kingdom has been 279.333 million dollars from 2003 to
2011. (Table 3)


Yemen
Yemen, together with Jordan and Morocco are considered
in the US plan for democratization in the heart of the New
Middle East. This country is the poorest among the Arab
nations, with an annual mean income of less than 1300
dollars. Almost half of the population has a daily income of
not more than 2 dollars. The weak oil-dependent economy
faces increasing population challenges, the most important
reason of which must be sought in the vast poverty
containing the country.
Yemen is another stage for the US military presence. The
American air force and navy bases in Eden Gulf and Bab-
el-Mandab Gulf have increased the US military power in
the Red Sea. One of the Pentagon plans is to establish a
military center in Sukutra Island, located 360 km southeast
of Eden. But the popular protests have caused ambiguities
in building the center. Naturally, any shifts in power
structure and the victory of Islamists could endanger the 31
presence of US military bases in Yemen. Yemen’s military
geography importance for the US is so high that the US
Congress approved an aid of 58.4 million dollars in 2010.
The Congress also allotted a 150-million-dollar aid to
training, supplying equipments for Yemeni security forces.
(Table 4)
Yemen has been one of the most intense countries in
the Middle East. The country has been facing crisis since
2004 after the sextet war broke out between the central
government and the Zaidi Houthis in north. The sixth
war was turned into a regional war after the Saudi forces
intervened. The country’s political and social condition
also deteriorated after the crisis ﬂared due to the Harak


separatist move to dismember the south, followed by al-
Qaida’s increasing activities. Due to the great influence of
Shia Houthis northern Sa’da, during the past 30 years, Saudi
Arabia has always tried to cut the connections between
Shias in eastern Saudi Arabia and Houthis. Accordingly,
since the fall of Mubarak on February 11, 2011, the Yemenis
have been holding rallies and staging sit-ins in most of the
cities across Yemen. The main square in each city has been
named al-Tagh’eer (Change) square. People have been
demanding the ouster of Saleh and the fall of the regime.
As 40 percent of the global oil is exported through this
region with the strategic Strait of Bab-el-Mandab; the West
sensitively follow the country’s developments, and the US
is more fearful about losing its interests. By prolonging
the crisis and Saleh’s inability to handle the unrest, plus
protesters and opposition’s insist on his ouster; Washington
is trying to manage the crisis as much as possible and find
32 an acceptable solution. The Persian Gulf Council’s initiative
must be evaluated in this regard.

Kuwait
Kuwait is situated in the northwest of the Persian Gulf and
the southeast of Iraq, sharing borders with Iraq and Saudi
Arabia. The official religion is Islam (Sunni) and 20 percent
of the population is Shia. The sparks of Islamism in Kuwait
were stricken concurrent with the Islamic Revolution in
Iran. In 1980, Western embassies especially the US embassy
were threatened and attacked several times.
Kuwait political system is emirate, and the rule is ancestral.
Kuwaiti emir is chosen from al-Sabah clan, with the current
emir Sheikh Jaber al-Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah ruling since


1977. Political parties are ofﬁcially banned in Kuwait, but
unofﬁcial political groups are openly or secretly active.
Among the most important groups, there are two Sunni
Islamist groups named
Islamic Sharia (Law) Movement, and an Islamic mass-
based party; and also a Shia Islamist group called Islamic
coalition for the country. Another older Shia group is called
Dar al-Tawhid, composed of scholars of Kuwait society,
having links with Shia communities in Iran and Iraq.
Of the 21 US military bases throughout 6 Arab countries
in Persian Gulf, 6 bases are stationed in Kuwait, which enjoy
considerable facilities despite their limited space and area.
Studying the situation of these bases, defense agreements,
and the slope of arms sales to Kuwait by Washington;
reveals that after most of the joint military operations US
has had in the Middle East, its military presence in Kuwait
has increased. The examples are Earnest Will Operation
(1987-1988), Desert Fox Operation (December 16, 1998), 33
Southern Watch Operation, Desert Storm Operation (Desert
Shield), Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan
(October 7, 2001) and Operation Iraqi Freedom (March 23,
2003).
The most important US bases in Kuwait are as follows:
- Camp Arifjan: The presence of big arsenals, have made
this base be one of the support staff centers of the US
operations in the Middle East. In this camp, there are units
from the navy, air force, and the coast guards stationed.
- Camp Udairi (Buhering): This camp was given to the
US military for the Iraq war since 2003.
- Center for commanding regional operations: Pentagon
is building a permanent center in Kuwait to manage the full


range of operations in 27 regional countries.
- Ahmad al-Jaber Air Base: It was taken over by the US
since 1996, having a suitable situation in the southwest of
the Persian Gulf.
- Camp Doha: The Camp Doha has the highest role in
commanding the forces.
- Ali al-Salem Air Base: One of the most important
military bases in Kuwait in which a British squadron of
Tornado fighter jets has been stationed together with the
American forces.
The first separation and classification of the popular

Egypt
Egypt is a country located in the horn of Africa, which is
limited to the Mediterranean Sea northward, to the Red Sea
eastward, to Libya westward, and to Sudan southward.
34 Al-Azhar University is one of the most influential
scientific and religious centers in Islamic world, with almost
1,000 years of scientific and religious background. Al-
Azhar’s most important goal is to publish and implement
Islam’s laws and regulations, to keep the religious heritage
of Sunnis and to make connections between different faiths
of Islam.
Political Islamism was started when Jamaleddin Asadabadi
arrived to Egypt, and it entered a new phase when the Muslim
Brotherhood was formed in 1928. Opposition and mutual
mistrust between the Islamists and the government was
started since 1948 when a number of cabinet members were
assassinated, and resulted in assassination of the Muslim
Brotherhood leader, Hassan al-Banna, in 1949. Muslim


officers’ plot to assassinate Naser in 1954 deteriorated the
mistrust and its climax was in 1981, when Sayed Qutb,
and the leaders of Jihad Islami, Jama’at al-Moslemin, al-
Tahrir Islami were executed, and on the other hand, Anwar
Sadat was assassinated by Islamists. Contrary to some other
countries, Islamism in Egypt has two aspects of intellectual
and military. Accordingly the country is both the center of
producing Islamic thoughts, and at the same time the center
of the most radical Islamic campaigns. Not in many other
Islamic countries, one can find so many Islamist leaders
who were executed or were jailed for long terms. There are
more than 40 Islamist groups in Egypt, many of which are
branches of the Muslim Brotherhood, that have disengaged
in different eras due to Muslim Brotherhood’s moderation,
and they started armed conflict after separation. There
are important factors in developing modern Islamism in
Egypt like the assassination of Hassan al-Banna, Sayed
Qutb’s thoughts, and the Islamic Revolution of Iran. After 35
the assassination of Sadat, wide arrests of Islamists, and a
relative short recession in the military phase; the Islamists
moved towards peaceful and civil campaign in order to
maintain their popular bases.
Egypt is considered as the gate of the Arab world and
the US base for the Middle Eastern policies. The closeness
of Egypt to oil producing regions in the Persian Gulf and
its active role in peace process between Arabs and Israel
have created such a status for Egypt in US policies. The US
supplies Cairo with an annual economic and military aid of
more than two billion dollars. Based on a report by the US
Research Center, Washington has totally given more than
392118 million dollars to Egypt after the second World War


until 2011 (table 5).
Since 1979, Cairo has been Washington’s close ally in
starting the peace process, facilitating the negotiations
between Arabs and Israel, and legitimizing the US-led
coalition against Iraq. Therefore, distinguished American
experts like Paul Wolfowitz, recommended the US to
support Egypt in fighting against terrorism. That’s why
American authorities seek stability in Egypt, a country
regionally situated in a dangerous zone.
After Camp David Treaty was signed by Anwar Sadat, the
dependence of Egypt to Israel and the US was visualized in
the 22-day war against Gaza, when Egypt started killing
Palestinian fighters. During the time, Egypt fully besieged
Gaza strip, not allowing even the food, putting Palestinians
in a hard economic situation. The servility continued until
Omar Suleiman suggested Israel to station their military
units in Rafah crossing to prevent any communication
36 between the Palestinian fighters and the Gazan people.
The Egyptians even spent millions of dollars to build the
separation wall on their border with the Palestinians in order
to complete the siege. So regarding Egypt’s importance for
the US, there are two points: First, Cairo is located next
to the occupied lands and its good relations with Israel
could guarantee Israel’s stability and any disruption in ties
will result in changes in favor of Muslims. For, Israel is
not able to control Gaza fighters without close cooperation
with Egypt. On the other hand, Egypt controls the strategic
Suez Canal. An Islamist popular government in Egypt can
benefit from the canal (which has no equivalent), pressuring
the US in order to gain Islamic nation’s goals. For instance,
regarding the Palestinian issue, the canal and its strategic


importance can create many advantages for Muslims.
The fourth wave of Islamic Awakening was started by
gathering at al-Tahrir square, and turned into a stormy
campaign by different occasions like the Day of Anger, and
holding the Friday prayers. These protests finally led to the
fall of Honsi Mubarak regime, and the military supreme
council took the power. Changes in Egypt are ongoing with
three parliamentarian elections held so far.

Tunisia
Tunisia became independent from France in 1956,
and Habib Bourguiba was the first president and the
unconditioned ruler of the country. In 1987 and after 31
years of dictatorship, he was toppled by Zeinul Abedin
Ben Ali who was a high ranking police officer. Ben Ali
was also similarly toppled after 23 years of dictatorship
in mid January 2011, fleeing to Saudi Arabia. The popular
protests were named Jasmine Revolution. Prime Minister 37
al-Ghanoushi immediately claimed power.
The political system is multi-party with a legislative
parliament, and 25 ministries. Tunisia is a member of the
Arab League. The dominant languages are Arabic and
French and the dominant religion is Islam.
According to US Congress Research Center’s report,
Tunisia has received 4000 million dollars of economic aid,
and 70573 million dollars of military aid from 2008 o 2011
(table 6).

Jordan
Jordan is a country in the Middle East bordered with
Syria northward, with Iraq eastward, with Saudi Arabia


southward, and with occupied Palestine and West Bank
westward. The total border lines with all the neighbors
are 1619 kilometers. Jordan reaches Aqaba Gulf from the
south, so it has 26 kilometers of water border, which is the
least water border among all the Arab countries.
Jordan has been pioneer in accepting and implementing
the US plan of the new Middle East. As, according to the
US Congress Research Center’s report, since the second
Persian Gulf crisis in 1991 until 2011, Jordan has beneﬁted
from 5299.2 million dollars of economic aid and 3742
million dollars of military aid from the US (table 7).
Jordan’s population is unique among other Arab countries,
from which half of the population are Palestinian refugees
who mainly live in urban context of Jordan. Hence, the effect
of actions by Islamists and the Zionists in the occupied lands
is more visible in Jordan than other countries. On the other
hand, the ruling power in Jordan has been under pressure
38 from Islamists due to signing a peace treaty with Israel, and
also lack of popular support. The above-mentioned reasons
are key factors inciting the popular uprisings in Jordan.
The third separation and classiﬁcation of the popular

a) Libya
Libya is the third biggest exporter of oil in Africa, faces
Mediterranean Sea northward, neighboring Sudan from
southeast, Chad and Niger Republics from the South, and
Algeria and Tunisia from the west and northwest.
Libya has a population of six million, 97 percent of which
are Sunni Muslims. Nearly 12 clans and tribes are in Libya,
and during the recent years, visible Islamist moves have


been seen in the country. Muammer Gaddafi’s political
system during his 42 years of rule caused him to lose his
legitimacy in all political and economic aspects. Libya is
structurally had an anti-West political system, but Gaddafi
walked with the US and the West whenever he felt necessary.
Sending Libya’s nuclear equipments and resources to the
US is only an example. These inexpedient turns made Libya
lose its political credit in the international community.
Together with that, the closed space in the country blocked
the power shift and did not let the political elites reach the
power. Libya has an ailing economy. At least 30 percent of
the people are unemployed. This, as many media outlets
estimated Gaddafi’s assets as 131 billion dollars.
Libyans’ uprising was ignited on February 14, 2001 in
Benghazi Port (the second biggest city), Ajdadiah, Misratah,
and al-Baida led by Fathi Tarbeel.
The crisis in Libya went beyond a civil protest, turning
into an armed conflict for many different reasons. Following 39
the escalation of the crisis in Libya, on February 26, 2010;
the United Nations Security Council issued the Resolution
1970, based on which the Security Council imposed a
number of sanctions against Libyan officials, confirming the
jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court to deal with
Gaddafi’s and some of his relatives’ crimes. But the second
Resolution against Libya was a starting point for many
contradicting discussions and comments throughout the
international arena. On March 17, 2011, the UNSC issued
the Resolution 1973 to impose a no-fly zone in Libyan skies,
allowing other countries to take necessary measures (even
military measures) to implement the no-fly ban, and defend
the civilians. This resolution also allowed all the countries


to make sure about the no-fly ban unilaterally or through
a joint regional alliance, in order to prevent the killing
of civilians through air and also to prevent the arrival of
mercenaries to the country. After the arrival of the military
forces to implement the Resolution 1973, NATO took the
command in Libya war. By arriving NATO warplanes on
April 19, 2011, Western powers allied to reach two goals:
keeping Gaddafi by making the war erosive; and refraining
from distribution of occupying forces throughout Libya.
The developments continued in Libya until the spokesman
for the transitional Council announced that Gaddafi was
killed in Sirt by Misratah’s Kateebat-ul-Barakin forces
(Misratah Volcano Battalion). The interim government was
formed after Gaddafi’s fall, chaired by Abdul Rahim al-
Keib.

b) Saudi Arabia
40 Saudi Arabia Kingdom is a country west of Asia, located
in the Arabian Peninsula. It is bordered with Iraq, Jordan,
and Kuwait northward; with UAE, Qatar, and Persian
Gulf eastward; with Oman southeastward; with Yemen
southward, and with the Red Sea westward. This country
holds important religious Muslim centers such as Kaaba,
Prophet’s Mosque, and the Prophet’s Tomb.
Among the countries on the Southern coast of the Persian
Gulf, Saudi Arabia is the most important for Washington,
as it is the US main base. Saudi Arabia is the key agent to
control the oil price in OPEC, as it has a high production
capacity. The ties between Saudis and the US are affected
by two key strategies: 1) Increasing need for oil and the
necessity for keeping its price low, 2) The need for Saudi


Arabia’s cooperation in ﬁghting with political Islam and
anti-American and anti-Israeli moves. Due to Riyadh’s
position and the sensitivity of ties and Saudi Arabia’s key
role in the region and the mutual interests, the US has
always tried to refrain to make decisions which disturb
the mutual ties. The US implements its policies in the
Persian Gulf, OPEC, Arab League, and Islamic Countries
Organization through Saudi Arabia. The military-security
ties between Washington and Riyadh started in 1950’s. The
US started to form, organize, train, equip, and manage the
Saudi army, and security organizations. Saudi Arabia is
the biggest buyer of weapon and the biggest customer for
US military experts. A number of important military navy
and air bases are controlled by the US. The US Defense
Department (Pentagon) has established its Headquarters
in Prince Sultan air base southern Riyadh for operations in
Afghanistan war and also organizing military operations
throughout the Persian Gulf. At this base, there are 5,000 41
American forces, many of which belong to the air base.
According to a report by the US Congress Research
Center published on March 10, 2011, US military aid to
Saudi Arabia has been 3937 million dollars from 2004 to
2011 (table 8).
2) Popular uprisings of the region and the regional threats
against the US
By evaluating and pursuing the Islamic Awakening in each
of the mentioned countries, we conclude that it is a security
threat for the US interests and also a golden opportunity
for all the Muslim nations in the region. This will make
the White House take different strategies in dealing with
the changes. In the following, economic, political, cultural,


social, and military aspects will be discussed.
2-1) Economic, energy, and security threats
Considering the eminent position of the economy in the
21st century, economic threats have been highly important.
In many countries especially those with capitalist liberal
ideology that seek their economic interests beyond their
own borders; the economic security has been a critical
goal. Accordingly, any changes which retard their initial
goals will be considered as a threat against their national
security. Therefore, among the achievements of the Islamic
Awakening and its economic effects on the US regional
security, one can mention stoppage in continuous flow of
energy, and consolidation of Iran’ position to provide secure
energy.
2-1-1) Stoppage in continuous flow of energy
If we study the consumption of oil all over the world,
we see that northern America was the biggest consumer of
42 crude oil in 2003, with a consumption of 24 million BPD,
which accounts for 30% of the global consumption.
The US Energy information Administration predicts that
the US will be more dependent on the Middle East oil in
the future. Based on this prediction, Northern America oil
import will increase from 3.3 million BPD in 2001, to 6.1
million BPD in 2025 and almost the whole imported oil will
be delivered to the United States of America.
Considering the following facts, any anti-dependence
change or revolution which brings Islamist governments to
power in strategic Middle East and Northern Africa regions;
could lead to a stoppage in continuous flow of energy to
developed and industrial oil-dependent countries:
Oil and its derivatives will globally stay the most important


energy sources at least for many decades,
Longevity of oil and natural gas reserves in the Middle
East,
Increase in demand for fossil and inexpensive fuels
Oil shocks in 1973 and 1979 have shown losses in the
West and particularly the US due to the interruption of oil
flow.
2-1-2) increasing importance of Iran’s position and role
in supplying secure energy
Since political-security stability is one of the conditions
of investments to provide energy security, domestic crisis
and general protests can endanger that government’s status.
Also if that country plays an important role in the regional
and international economy, anti-government uprisings can
lead to limitation in investment resulting in decreasing
the energy exports. Currently, considering the changes in
important countries of the Middle East and Northern Africa,
who are mostly energy exporters, the position of stable 43
countries such as Iran has been strengthened in supplying
and providing secure energy, and this is a security threat in
energy zone for the interests of the White House.
2-2) Security-political threats
Regarding the definition presented for security threats,
a political threat is defined as any threat that politically
endangers the security of a country, regardless of its
origin. As every move has different consequences, popular
uprisings in the Islamic world have also political impacts on
the security of ultra-region powers in the Middle East which
results in derogation of Israel’s security and existence,
development of Islamist revolutionary movements, Iran’s
nuclear issue being overshadowed, and disruptions in peace


process.
2-2-1) Derogation of Israel’s security and existence
It is one of the quickest consequences of the Islamic
Awakening, as important as security threats against critical
interests of the US. Currently, Israel is surrounded by Egypt
from the south, by Lebanon Hezbollah from the north, by
Hamas from the west, and by Syria and Jordan from the
east. Syria is now seeking to repossess the Golan Heights,
Egyptians to repossess Sina Desert and to cut natural gas
export to Israel and to end diplomatic ties with Tel Aviv, and
Palestinian refugees to get back to their original lands. The
Zionist regime is also under pressure from Arab residents
of the occupied lands, and the latter issue will raise the
possibility of the third Intifada. There have also been riots
in Jewish settlements in protest at Netanyahu’s economic
policies, which have created a political earthquake in
Israel’s ruling party. Taking of the Israeli embassy in Cairo
44 by the Egyptian youth, Israeli ambassador’s escape, and the
victory of Islamists afﬁliated with Muslim Brotherhood in
three stages of Egypt’s parliamentary elections; have all
made Israeli high ranking ofﬁcials worried. As the Israeli
Minister of war affairs, Ehud Barak, has warned about
the future security of his regime considering the current
situation of Egypt, saying: “I did my best to maintain the
ties with Egypt, but things changed anyway and a dark
and insecure future is waiting for us”. He was talking on
Zionist Regime Radio, saying: “Israel is expected to have a
dark future by emerging Islamist movements in some Arab
countries, and we cannot imagine a secure and safe view for
Israel and for the region”.
The US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has also warned


against Israel’s increasing isolation in the Middle East,
urging Tel Aviv to take diplomatic measures to solve
the problem. Panetta also reminds that Tel Aviv faces an
international challenge, designed to put Israel in isolation.
2-2-2) Development of Islamist Revolutionary
Movements
Considering the religious nature of the uprisings,
throughout the whole region from Egypt to Bahrain,
Islamist groups have been the major players in recent
revolutions and developments, and these Islamist forces
will play an important role in any political structures in their
countries. Such an issue is considered a serious threat to the
US political security in long term. Because Islamists have
always been a threat to the interests of the White House
in any country they were in power. As their ﬁrst step, the
Islamists always either downgraded or cut their ties with
the West. As an example, we can refer to the victory of
Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt’s Parliamentary elections, 45
and Islamist party, al-Nahda’s success in Tunisia’s elections
for the Constitutional Council. In this regard, Abdol-Rahim
Keib, the new Libyan Prime Minister, has said that his
country will have an Islamic government and Islam will be
the origin in legislation. Al-Nahda party chief, Rashid al-
Ghanoushi has also said that Tunisia will build a typical
Muslim country where terrorism, bigotry, extremism, and
enmity with democracy are totally absent. Libyans also
called for the formation of an Islamic system in one of their
demonstrations in Benghazi, which was the center of the
ten-month revolution against the dictatorship.
2-2-3) Iran’s nuclear energy issue is overshadowed
After the regional countries were engaged in dealing


with their domestic problems which were more important
for themselves, issues like Iran’s nuclear program and the
UEA claim to possess Iranian triple islands of Greater
Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Abu Musa; have been the second
priority of them regarding their interests. They have tried to
focus in short term on solving their own internal conﬂicts,
and stabilizing their own regional position. The example of
such decisions is that the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council
dropped the issue of Iranian triple islands in their March 7,
2011 gathering. This has also decreased Iranophobia in the
West regarding this issue.
2-2-4) Disruptions in peace process
Another political threat is the disruption in the Arabs-
Israel peace process which has happened following the fall
of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt as the main regional supporter
of Israel, the escapes by this regime’s allies in the Middle
East and Northern Africa, and agreements between Hamas
46 and Fatah and efforts to form a national reconciliation
government in Palestine.
2-3) Social-Cultural threats to security
Nowadays, most of the political systems in the world
regard developing and maintaining their desirable values as
a part of their national interests. With that deﬁnition, the
factors that weaken or destroy such values are categorized
as cultural or social threats. The properties that characterize
these threats from other national security threats are their
comprehensiveness and continuity. In other words, cultural
and social threats are dangerous as security threat only when
they are turned into a comprehensive and continued process.
Regarding the anti-American uprisings in the Middle East
and Northern African regions, there are some cultural-social


threats to the US regional security such as: decreasing the
hegemony of liberal democracy debate, increasing people’s
roles, and the soft inﬂuence of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
2-3-1) Decreasing the hegemony of liberal democracy
debate
These changes act as a security threat in cultural-social zone
for the White House and the most important achievement of
them is from one hand decreasing the hegemony of liberal
democracy debate and inability of capitalism culture,
and from other hand, restoring Muslims’ revolutionary
identity, and increasing nations’ trend to political Islam and
comprehensiveness of the religious rule in protests.
One of the evident examples of deterioration of US position
is the fall of their embassy in Tripoli by young protesters
and the emergence of Occupy Wall Street Movement in the
US, protesting at economic policies. The movement calls
itself the 99 percent against the ruling minority of 1 percent.
They asserted themselves after September 17, 2100 despite 47
wide censorship during the initial days, spreading to more
than 80 capitalist countries. They attracted supporters in
different cities of the US but they faced heavy crackdown
by police.
Mikhail Gorbachev, the last leader of the Soviet Union,
has recognized the movement to occupy the Wall Street
as the symbol of capitalism, saying: “American people’s
uprising is similar to the one we witnessed on the verge of
Soviet fall.”
2-3-2) Increasing people’s roles in changes and evolutions
According to the Western theory paradigms, any change
in a society must start from its elites, and then evolves. In
other words, since the Western communities are elitist, the


mass people are not directly playing role in changes. But
Islamic uprisings proved that people, as the main social
resources, are the major role players of the changes and the
main deciders of their fates. They sometimes even guide
their elites, an example of which is the turnout of more than
60 percent of Egyptians and Tunisians in their parliamentary
elections.
2-3-3) the soft inﬂuence of the Islamic Republic of Iran
in the region
The similarity of some of the protesters’ demands with
the characteristics of the Islamic Revolution of Iran, has
worried the West particularly Washington towards the
adherence of protesters from the Islamic Republic of Iran
model. It is wise to claim that increasing the inﬂuence of
such mentality despite the implementation of Iranophobia
and Shiaphobia projects, is the biggest security threat in
cultural-social zone. This adherence to Iran can cause those
48 countries to reject compromises and sow resistance. This
great achievement can open up a kind of strategic break
time space for Iran, and it is very unlikely that Washington
can block such a space.
2-4) military threats of security
Among the achievements of the Middle East changes is
the military threat which can appear in one of the following
forms: threat against the US military bases in the Middle
East and their possible moves, increasing the possibility of
change in the security structure of the Persian Gulf, and the
establishment of an anti-West local structure, and the US
inability to control terrorism.
2-4-1) Changes in the arrangement of US military bases
The wideness of popular uprisings in the region has


created strategic threats against the existence of US bases
in the region. It gets more important to keep these bases
at the time when Washington is withdrawing its troops
according to security agreements with Baghdad. Based on
a report by the Congress Research Service on March 21,
2011 any possible change in the power balance and the rise
of a Shia government close to Islamic Republic of Iran,
seriously contrast with the US security priority regarding the
military arrangement of the Persian Gulf. Accordingly the
continuation of political-security instability will probably
make Washington revise the geographical location of the
Navy’s 5th ﬂeet Headquarters.
Therefore, if the US regional allies are omitted, the
Pentagon will start to gradually remove and leave their
military bases in these countries and the Middle East will
get rid of arms race and the so called humanitarian wars.
2-4-2) increasing the possibility of change in security
structure of the Persian Gulf 49
Persian Gulf’s security structure is in a way that any shift
in security balances will have consequences in national,
regional, and ultra-region scales. Continuing popular
uprisings in Arab countries will increase the possibility of
changes in military-security structures of the Persian Gulf.
If popular uprisings win and anti-US governments are
formed, the new governments will cut off the White House
superior hand by forming new anti-West blocks.

Conclusion
According to the US national security strategy in the
21st century, the security of allies are considered as critical
interest for the US, and on the other hand, critical interests


are one degree lower than survival interests without which
the US will not exist. Consequently Islamic Awakening
and establishment of religious democratic systems which
are independent from the US will endanger the national
securities of the US. This threat has short-term, medium-
term, and long-term effects on Washington’s regional
security.
In order to respond to this article’s question, the research
findings suggest that the effects of the Islamic Awakening
on the US security in Middle East and North Africa’s geo-
politic, geo-economic, geo-security regions are as follows
(sequential in national interests pyramid):
Energy-economic threats including stoppage in the
continuous flow of energy and strengthening the position of
Iran in providing secure energy
Political threats including weakening the security and
endangering the existence of Israel, development of Islamist
50 movements, the Iranian nuclear issue being overshadowed,
and disruption in peace process
Military threats include The change in the arrangement of
the military bases and increasing the possibility of change
in security structure of the Persian Gulf
Cultural-social threats include decreasing the hegemony
of liberal democracy debate, increasing the role of mass
people in changes and increasing soft influence of Iran on
the region.
The White House now faces a range of security threats
in the regions in Middle East and North African which are
changing. Since the critical goals and the reference security
values of the US have been threatened, the vulnerability
is high, and the consequences will be heavy. Therefore,


Washington is trying to lead and manage the evolutions and
changes to its own favor. And this proves the US double
standard policy towards the uprisings. For instance, in
zones where any change in the current situation threatens
Washington’s interests; humanitarian values are easily
forgotten in the US foreign policy. The instance is the green
light given to Saudi Arabia and Bahrain to crack down the
Shia movement; or the silence strategy towards killing of
Yemeni people.
Regarding the protests in Yemen, Kuwait, US has taken a
policy in which one hand, it supports the protesters, but on
the other hand, it gives the ruling governments necessary
guarantees to keep their existence.
Over the popular protests in Egypt and Tunisia, Washington
is riding the wave of protests in order to prevent the rising of
Islamists. Or in Syria’s case, the White House supports the
protesters in order to make Damascus change its attitude,
or revise ties with the Islamic Republic of Iran or Lebanon 51
Hezbollah. Regarding Libya, Washington armed the
protesters, issued the Resolution 1973 in the UN Security
Council, sending NATO into the internal changes in Tripoli.
These double standards show an apparent paradox in the
US announced policies and its applied policies.
Therefore, in response to the US policies, the Islamic
Republic of Iran needs to take a strategic measure in order
to maintain its domestic and regional security. Iran needs
to create more options to keep its security and decrease its
vulnerability against other counties’ actions.


Table 1: Islamic groups after the occurrence of Islamic
Revolution of Iran
Year
Name of Movement Number
established
Hamas (Palestinian Islamic Resistance
1987 1
Movement)

1980 Palestinian Islamic Jihad Movement 2

1990 Palestinian Hezbollah 3
52 1982 Lebanon Hezbollah 4
the Supreme Council for the Islamic
1980 5
Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI)
1980 Islamic Unity Party of Afghanistan 6
1980 Islamic Movement of Afghanistan 7
1989 Algeria Islamic Najah Front 8
1981 Tunisia al-Nahda 9

Figure 1: the Pyramid of US national interests in the Middle
East

Figure 2: the spectrum of threat status


Table 2: US military bases through the Middle East

Military Base Country

Bilad Air Base
Al-Talil Air Base in Nasiriah
Al-Assad Military Center
Camp Victory
Al-Qayareh Camp Iraq
Marines Camp
Kirkuk Camp
Erbil Camp
Bashur Camp

Sultan Abdul-Aziz Air Base in
Zahran
Malik Fahad Air Base in Ta’ef
Sultan Khalid Air Base Saudi Arabia
Iskan Settlement Air Base
Riyadh Air Base
Prince Sultan Air Base
53
Izmir Air Base
Injerlik Air Base
Turkey
NATO quick response center of
commanders

Ahmad al-Jabir Air Base (HQ of
US Army in ME)
Ali al-Salem Air Base
Doha Air Base Kuwait
Udairi Air Base (HQ of
common attack forces)
Arifjan Camp
5th Navy HQ of US Navy in
Bahrain
ME
Al-Adeed Air Base
Qatar
US Air Force HQ in ME


Al-Zafra’ Air Base in Abu
Dhabi (US military magazine in
United Arab Emirates
the region)
Al-Fajeerah Military Center

Bagram Military Base
Holang Air Base Afghanistan
Khyber Path Spy Center

Table 3: US Military Aid to Bahrain (million dollars)

Military Aid Year
90.448 2003
25.2 2004
20.895 2005
24.305 2006
40.93 2007
9.634 2008
25.361 2009
20.77 2010
54 21.7 2011
279.333 Total
Source: Kenneth Katzman (2011) Bahrain: Reform, Security and U.S.
Policy ,Congressional Research Service (CRS), p.23

Table 4: US Aid to Yemen (million dollars)
Economic Aid Military Aid Year
7.920 10.780 2006
12 13.336 2007
6.413 8.931 2008
31 6.325 2009
40 13.6 2010
34 40.6 2011
47.56 36.1 2012
178.893 129.672 Total
Source: Jeremy M. Sharp, (2011) Yemen: Background and U.S.
Relations, Congressional Research Service (CRS), p.27


Table 5: US Foreign Aid to Egypt after the World War
II (million dollars)
23288.6 22353.5 1948-1997
815 13000 1998
775 13000 1999
727.3 13000 2000
695 13000 2001
655 13000 2002
911 13000 2003
571.6 1292.3 2204
530.7 1289.6 2005
490 12870 2006
450 13000 2007
411.6 1289.4 2008
250 13000 2009
250 13000 2010
250 13000 2011
30820.8 39211.8 Total
Source: Jeremy M .Sharp (2011) Egypt in Transition, Congressional
Research Service (CRS), p.14 55

Table 6: US Foreign Aid to Tunisia (million dollars)

Total 2011 2010 2009 2008 Year
70537 7200 20150 22925 20298 Military Aid
Economic
4000 0 2000 800 1200
Aid
Source: Alexis Arieff (2011) Political Transition in Tunisia,
Congressional Research Service (CRS), p.25


Table 7: US Foreign Aid to Jordan after the Second
Persian Gulf War (million dollars)
35 21.3 1991
50 20.6 1992
35 9.5 1993
28 9.8 1994
28.9 8.3 1995
36.1 201.2 1996
120.4 31.7 1997
151.2 76.6 1998
200 121.6 1999
200 226.6 2000
151.7 76.7 2001
251.6 102 2002
951 606.4 2003
352.3 208.9 2004
351.6 309 2005
299.1 210.9 2006
255.3 254.1 2007
56 561.4 351.2 2008
413.5 388.1 2009
463 353.8 2010
363 303.7 2011
5299.2 3742 Total
Source: Jeremy M. Sharp, (2011) Jordan: Background and U.S.
Relations, Congressional Research Service (CRS), p. 28

Table 8: US Foreign Military Aid to Saudi Arabia
(million dollars)

Total 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 Year
Military
3937 370 208 361 113 319 1576 966.9 23.5
Aid
Source: Christopher M. Blanchard (2011) Saudi Arabia: Background
and U.S. Relations, Congressional Research Service (CRS), p.5

Analytical glance to Supreme Leader’s attitude about...

Analytical glance to Supreme Leader’s attitude
about aerial changes at Middle East & North of
Africa
Hossein Behmanesh1
Abstract
Most of political sciences and specialists in social changes
have faced with a type of confusion due to the occurrence of
public movements at Middle East and North of Africa which
led to fall of governors at Tunisia, Egypt and Libya one after
the other accompanied with wide non-calmness at Bahrain,
Yemen and limited disagreements in Saudi Arabia, Jordan,
Algeria and Syria. It is possible to say that basic theories of
these accidents are the real reasons of these difficulties.
The analysis and attitude of supreme leader about these
accidents are the real guidelines for finding the identity
and origin of aerial changes as well. For this paper, we
58 have benefited from his official speeches and notices from
09.Jan.2011 up to his speech at International Islamic
Awakening Conference on 17.Sept.2011. It has been tried
to find a specific and theoretical solution from his attitude
about these changes in a fixed framework and through three
sections of identity understanding, origins and guidelines.
This paper assumes that Supreme leader has a prior view
and analysis about aerial changes in continuation of Islamic
Revolution Way and its occurrence as well. Therefore all
mentioned changes are named as Islamic Awakening.
Upon evaluation of his speech, the author concluded that

1. Master of Science student at 3rd semester in International Relations
Field Faculty of Human Sciences – Gilan University
With guidance of: Dr. Ahmad Jansiz, Professor Assistant in Political
Sciences- Faculty of Human Sciences-Gilan University


supreme leader has considered some common factors in
these countries, except for Syria, including Islam-based
attitudes, Public movement, Liberality, Fighting with U.S.A
and Fighting with Zionism. Supreme leader considers these
changes as a part of history and really determinant for the
future of Moslems and even the whole world as well.

Key words: Aerial changes, Islamic awakening, Supreme
Leader, People, U.S.A

Introduction
When Mohamed Bouazizi as a Tunisian street vendor
at Seidi Bouzeid province set himself on fire on 17
December 2010, in protest of the confiscation and blames
of police for his business, his act became a catalyst for the
Tunisian Revolution and the wider Arab Spring, inciting
demonstrations and riots throughout Tunisia. Finally the
public's anger led to the escape of Zine Al Abidine Ben 59
Ali to Saudi Arabia. It was not the end and such a fire led
to Arabic/Islamic countries one by one. It seems a person
made a fire in those countries. All governors at Egypt, Libya,
Yemen and Bahrain were infected to such a fire as well.
There were more or less claims at Jordan, Saudi Arabia,
Algeria and Syria. Then all governors at Tunisia, Egypt
and Libya stepped down up to the date of this paper. Also
such a process is continuing with special aspects as well.
People at those countries with step down governors are
thinking about 2nd step of making their own future which
is specifying a new system quality and structure. Also they
will face with a lot of problems and options which seems
as a multi-unknown factors function for any evaluation,

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