Stat - Global Pulses Conclave by Mr. Brian Clancey at the Pulses Conclave 2014 by India Pulse & Grains Association, IPGA

1. Global Pulses
Conclave — 2014
BRIAN CLANCEY
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2. Price Influences
• Transportation
• Currency volatility
• Competition for acres
• Weather
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3. Bulk vs. Container Freight
Graph prepared by the USDA. Bulk rates are based on data from O’Neil Commodity Consulting, Inc.
Container rates are based on data from Drewry Shipping Consulting
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4. Canada Bulk Exports to Feb 9
(million metric tons)
25
20
15
All
Peas
Wheat
Canola
10
5
0
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5. Price Influences
• Transportation
• Currency volatility
• Competition for acres
• Weather
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6. Major Pulse Currencies
(2004 = 100)
Rupee weakens faster
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7. Canadian Red Lentils
(per metric ton track Vancouver)
Weak Rupee
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8. Canada Yellow Peas
(per metric ton delivered Vancouver)
Weak Rupee
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9. Canadian Yellow Pea Price
(grower versus export price)
Weak Dollar
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10. Outside Influences
• Transportation
• Currency volatility
• Competition for acres
• Weather
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11. Competition For Acres
(2004 = 100)
Pulses Less Competitive
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12. Pulse Index as % of Grains
(2004 = 100)
World pulse area
jumped 15% in 2010
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13. Pulse Index as % of Oilseeds
(2004 = 100)
Pulse area fell 21% in
export countries in 2011
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14. 2014 Outlook
• Shifting production
• Peas and Lentils
• Beans and Chickpeas
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15. World Pulse Production
(million metric tons)
Exporters
India
Other
2014-15
9.9
18.6
22.0
2009-13
9.9
17.3
22.4
2006-10
9.1
14.9
21.9
2001-05
8.5
12.9
20.7
1996-2000
8.7
13.8
18.0
1991-95
7.1
13.4
20.7
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16. World Pulse Production
(percent share of total)
Exporters
India
Other
2014-15
20%
40%
40%
2010-14
20%
37%
43%
2005-09
20%
32%
48%
2000-04
21%
31%
48%
1995-99
20%
35%
45%
1990-94
16%
31%
53%
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17. 2014 Outlook
• Shifting production
• Peas and Lentils
• Beans and Chickpeas
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18. World Pea Production
(metric tons)
5-Year Average
2013
2014
Canada
3,217,800
3,849,000
3,301,000
Russia
1,580,400
1,684,000
2,197,000
France
686,600
533,000
575,000
United States
578,000
709,000
729,000
Australia
356,400
342,000
334,000
10,268,000
11,162,000
11,164,000
World
The 5-year average covers 2009 to 2013
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19. World Pea Supply-Demand
(metric tons)
5-year average
Area (hectares)
Production
Carry-in
Supply
Trade
Inferred Use
Ending Stock
Stock-Use Ratio
2013-14
2014-15
6,600,000
7,020,000
7,170,000
10,490,000
11,162,000
11,164,000
680,000
370,000
820,000
11,180,000
11,532,000
11,984,000
4,030,000
4,420,000
4,580,000
10,440,000
10,712,000
11,304,000
730,000
820,000
680,000
7%
8%
6%
The 5-year average covers 2009-10 to 2013-14
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20. World Lentil Production
(metric tons)
5-Year Average
2013
2014
256,600
253,000
264,000
1,705,600
1,881,000
1,766,000
United States
268,000
228,000
193,000
Turkey
378,400
300,000
463,000
Other
1,696,200
1,149,000
1,371,000
World
4,304,800
3,811,000
4,057,000
Australia
Canada
The 5-year average covers 2009 to 2013
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21. World Lentil Supply-Demand
(metric tons)
5-year average
2013-14
2014-15
Area (hectares)
4,090,000
3,808,000
3,725,000
Production
4,300,000
3,811,000
4,057,000
580,000
373,000
245,000
Supply
4,880,000
4,184,000
4,302,000
Trade
2,170,000
2,438,000
2,246,000
Inferred Use
4,280,000
3,939,000
4,009,000
600,000
245,000
293,000
14%
6%
7%
Carry-in
Ending Stock
Stock-Use Ratio
The 5-year average covers 2009-10 to 2013-14
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22. 2014 Outlook
• Shifting production
• Peas and Lentils
• Beans and Chickpeas
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23. World Dry Bean Production
(metric tons)
5-Year Average
China
2013
2014
1,437,000
1,312,000
1,736,000
264,600
96,000
294,000
Brazil
3,263,400
3,311,000
3,180,000
Mexico
2,418,000
2,537,000
2,583,000
United States
4,550,200
4,800,000
4,627,000
23,247,800
23,107,000
23,773,000
Argentina
World
The 5-year average covers 2009 to 2013
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24. World Bean Supply-Demand
(metric tons)
5-year average
2013-14
2014-15
Area (hectares)
29,250,000
29,074,000
29,652,000
Production
23,250,000
23,107,000
23,773,000
820,000
505,000
612,000
24,070,000
23,612,000
24,385,000
4,260,000
3,913,000
4,386,000
23,280,000
23,000,000
23,583,000
790,000
612,000
802,000
4%
2%
3%
Carry-in
Supply
Trade
Inferred Use
Ending Stock
Stock-Use Ratio
The 5-year average covers 2009-10 to 2013-14
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25. World Chickpea Production
(metric tons)
5-Year Average
2013-14
2014-15
Kabuli
India
502,000
515,000
438,000
Turkey
563,000
325,000
390,000
Mexico
132,000
195,000
135,000
All Kabuli
1,973,000
1,887,000
1,858,000
Desi
9,500,000
10,804,000
11,475,000
The 5-year average covers 200-09 to 2012-13
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26. World Kabuli Supply-Demand
(metric tons)
5-year average
2013-14
2014-15
Area (hectares)
1,943,000
1,878,000
1,826,000
Production
1,973,000
1,887,000
1,858,000
193,000
361,000
369,000
2,165,000
2,248,000
2,227,000
420,000
504,000
465,000
1,928,000
1,879,000
1,976,000
238,000
369,000
251,000
12%
20%
13%
Carry-in
Supply
Trade
Inferred Use
Ending Stock
Stock-Use Ratio
The 5-year average covers 2009-10 to 2013-14
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27. World Desi Supply-Demand
(metric tons)
5-year average
Area (hectares)
Production
Carry-in
Supply
Trade
Inferred Use
Ending Stock
Stock-Use Ratio
2013-14
2014-15
10,666,000
11,410,000
12,218,000
9,500,000
10,804,000
11,475,000
76,000
4,000
56,000
9,576,000
10,808,000
11,531,000
868,000
392,000
224,000
9,514,000
10,752,000
11,472,000
62,000
56,000
59,000
1%
1%
1%
The 5-year average covers 2009-10 to 2013-14
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28. Conclusions
• General increase in pulse area
• Stronger weather events
• India leading increase in output
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