Pedro Lara de Arruda. Researcher at the International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth (IPC-IG) Poverty Practice, Bureau for Development Policy, UNDP.
Apresentação feita na Palestra "Os desafios negociadores dos BRICS: Coalizão e coesão" na UCB
Geostrategic significance of South Asian countries.ppt
Os desafios negociadores dos BRICS: coalizão e coesão?
1. Pedro Lara de Arruda. Researcher at the
International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth
(IPC-IG) Poverty Practice, Bureau for
Development Policy, UNDP.
2.
“Large, fast-growing developing economies
and significant influence on regional and global
affairs; all five are G-20 members. As of 2013,
the five BRICS countries represent almost 3
billion people, with a combined nominal GDP
of US$14.8 trillion, and an estimated US$4
trillion in combined foreign reserves. Presently,
South Africa holds the chair of the BRICS
group. The BRICS have received both praise
and criticism from numerous quarters” (BRICS
Summit, 2013)
3.
2006 – New York informal meeting
2009 – Yekaterinburg
Focus on “means of improving the global
economic situation and reforming financial
institutions, and discussed how the four countries
could better co-operate in the future.” (2009)
2010 – Brasília
With the presence of President Obama in the
aftermath of his Nuclear Summit, the Focus was on
Iran and further cooperation on technical areas
(close to the IBSA initiative). Unofficially, there
was much US-led pressure for the valorization of
the Chinese Yen.
4.
2011 – Sanya
Focus on demanding China to import noncommodities also; on the conclusion of the UN
anti-terrorist framework; against NATO on the
Lybian crisis; and in favour of national currencies
as trade mediums
2012 – New Delhi
Focus on the proposal for creating a BRICS Bank
2013 – Durban
Focus on the launching of the BRICS Bank and
means for promoting development and investment
in Africa. It also settled official Think Tanks for the
BRICS.
5.
“A number of cooperation mechanisms have
been developed for deepening intra-BRICS
cooperation. Meetings of BRICS trade and
economic ministers, agriculture ministers,
health ministers, senior officials on science and
technology, a contact group on economic and
trade issues, and other such meetings have
been useful in this regard. Regular meetings of
foreign ministers and finance ministers are a
feature on the BRICS calendar” (Sudhir Vyas,
MEA, India).
6.
“Consumer expenditure in BRICS countries as
a percentage of gross domestic product ranges
from 35 per cent to 61 per cent, and there is a
strong and growing middle class, with rising
levels of income.” (Sudhir Vyas, MEA, India).
7.
In terms of political influence, Russia and
China are permanent members of the United
Nations Security Council (UNSC), and all
BRICS members play a prominent role in
leading international organisations: the UN, the
G20, the G8, the Non-Aligned Movement, the
G77.
8.
In regional terms, Russia is a member of the Commonwealth of
Independent States, the Collective Security
Treaty Organization and the Eurasian Economic Community.
Russia and China are members of the Shanghai Co-operation
Organisation and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum.
Brazil is a member of the Union of South American Nations and
Mercosur.
South Africa is a member of the African Union and the South
African Development Community.
India is a member of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation.
9.
Only thirty cities account for half the world’s
total real estate investment volumes. The top
five cities alone – London, Tokyo, New York,
Hong Kong and Paris – account for nearly onequarter of volumes. Shanghai, Beijing, Moscow,
São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro have all become
top-30 investment destinations since 2008,
while the BRICS’ overall contribution to global
real estate investment volumes has increased
from less than one percent in 2004 to nearly 10
percent in 2011.
10.
Commodity Exporters vs. Commodity
Importers??
Permanent seat on the UNSC??
(Nitin Desay, former Under-secretary-general,
UN)
11.
Table 1: 2011 BRICS Sanya Summit Selected Priority Commitments
for Compliance Assessment
Priority Area
Commitments Selected and Assessed for Compliance (n =
5)
International Financial System Reform
[13] Recognizing that the international financial crisis has
exposed the inadequacies and deficiencies of the existing
international monetary and financial system, we support
the reform and improvement of the international monetary
system, with a broad-based international reserve currency
system providing stability and certainty.
Finance: Commodity Markets
[14] We support the international community in
strengthening cooperation to ensure stability and strong
development of physical market by reducing distortion and
further regulate financial market.
Climate Change: Cancun Agreements
[17] We support the Cancun Agreements.
Development: NEPAD
[28] We support infrastructure development in Africa and
its industrialization within framework of the New
Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD).
Trade: Trade Cooperation
[30] [We have agreed to continue further expanding and
deepening] trade [cooperation among our countries].
Source: (2012 BRICS New Delhi Summit Comlience Report)
12.
Table 2: 2011 BRICS Sanya Summit Compliance Scores
Commitment
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa
Average
Score
Average
Percentage
1
International
Financial
System
Reform [13]
0
0
+1
+1
-1
+0.2
60%
2
Finance:
Commodity
Markets [14]
+1
0
+1
0
0
+0.4
70%
3
Climate
Change:
Cancun
Agreements
[17]
+1
+1
+1
0
+1
+0.8
90%
4
Development:
NEPAD [28]
+1
0
+1
+1
0
+0.6
80%
5
Trade: Trade
Cooperation
[30]
0
0
+1
+1
0
+0.4
70%
Average score
+0.6
+0.2
+1
+0.6
0
0.48
13.
Voto comum do BRICS no UNSC 2011. Ex:
Líbia. (Sudhir Vyas, MEA, India)
14.
Dilma Roussef (Brazil): “we are willing and able to help, while there is still time, those
countries where the crisis is already acu-te.” (…) “It is clear that, right now, the priority of the
world economy must be resolving the problem of those countries facing sovereign debt crises
and turning back the current recessive tide. The developed countries must put in place
coordinated policies to stimulate the economies that are extremely weakened by the crisis.”
Dmitry Medvedev (Russia): “(…)politicians whose views were formed after the Cold war
(…) I believe that one such idea could be implemented very shortly: to include the currencies
of BRICS countries in the IMF SDR basket.”
Mammohan Singh (India): “As large and diverse societies, we are vulnerable to new and
emerging threats to our security. It is our duty to our citizens that we cooperate in the fight
against terrorism, extremism and intolerance and other non-traditional threats like piracy”.
Hu Jintao (China): “(…)we should continue to deepen practical cooperation, vigorously tap
our cooperation potential in economy, trade, health and sister-city relationships, and strive
for fruitful results of our cooperation in various fields so as to further strengthen the
economic and social foundation for BRICS cooperation.”
Jacob Zuma (South Africa): “The BRICS countries in general have a large savings pool,
whereas the African continent is ready for large-scale investments. Over the next 10 years,
Africa will need $480 billion for infrastructure development, which should interest the BRICS
business communities. Africa is projected as the third fastest-growing economy in the world,
while the BRICS countries now constitute the largest trading partners of Africa and largest
new investors.”