Presentation at the 17th German Norwegian Energy Forum in Berlin 2013

1. Norwegian/German cooperation in
changing energy markets
VP Anders Marvik, German Norwegian Energy Forum

2. Statoil in Germany
•
•
First gas delivered 1977
Three pipelines from Norway directly
accessing the German market
Currently delivering more than 20bcm,
a ~25% share in a 81bcm market*
Arctic Circle
•
Diversified sales portfolio
‒
Large utility companies
‒
Industry
‒
Trading (NCG and Gaspool)
‒
Gas to power
‒
Stadtwerke
Emden/ Dornum
•
Presence in infrastructure
GasPool
NCG
German gas hubs
* 2012 data. Source: Statoil analysis, IHS CERA.
2

3. A solid basis for gas supplies to Europe and Germany
•
The Norwegian Continental Shelf is
Europe’s largest gas producing area
120
100
80
•
Fuels Europe’s and Germany’s
economy and contributes to its
competitiveness
60
40
•
Future prospects is one of
interdependence. The NCS offers
vast reserves at Europe’s doorstep
and demand is key to drive
development
3
0
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
20
Norwegian gas exports 1977-2016 in bcm
Forecast for 2012-2016
Sales gas at 40 MJ/Sm³
Source: Norwegian Petroleum Directorate

4. Norwegian natural gas exports in 2011
•
Pipeline accounts for 95.7%
•
Two core markets, UK and D
•
LNG allows for tapping into high
growth Asian markets albeit long
distances
Source: Gassco / Norwegian Petroleum Directorate
4

5. German natural gas imports
•
Growth (2000 – 2011)
− Total Imports: +26% or +2.3%
per year
− Norway: +62% or +5.7% per
year
•
Shares (2011):
− Russia: 39.8%
− Norway: 34.4%
− Netherlands: 22.1%
•
Transit
•
Traded markets
5
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2000
2002
2004
Total Imports
Norway
Other
2006
2008
2010
Russia
Netherlands
Source: BAFA, units in PJ

6. German import dependency by energy source
•
Natural Gas is Germany’s Western
European fuel:
• Germany covers two thirds of its
gas supply from domestic and
Western European sources…
100
31%
80
73,4%
60
68,1%
Crude oil
Hard coal
100%
40
20
• …but relies on non-EEA imports for
more than two thirds of its hard coal
consumption
0
Uranium*
Domestic
Other EU
Norway
Natural gas
Imports from outside EEA
* Enriched in EU
Source: own calculations based on BAFA and AGEB; 2011 data
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7. The deal with Stadtwerke Düsseldorf
• Stadtwerke Düsseldorf AG or “SWD”:
− 1.8 B€ Sales in 2012 with 1700 employees
− 16 TWh power and 12 TWh gas portfolio
− Ownership structure: 55% ENBW;
25% Düsseldorf town; 20% Cologne town
• Project:
− CCGT/CHP capacity
580 MWel and 300th
− Efficiency
55% HHV (world class)
− Start Date:
January 2016
− Replacement of existing aging plant
• Concept:
− Risk and award sharing arrangement
− Linked to a mix of power, CO2 and natural gas commodity prices
− Allows economic operation of the plant
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8. Statoil/Wintershall partnership
Gas sales contract
Asset sale and swap Norway
• 10 year contract
• Wintershall acquires stakes in Brage,
Vega and Gjøa fields
• 45 billion cubic meter of gas
• Competitive hub pricing
• More than 6% of the total German gas
consumption
• 2 million homes or 9 power stations
• Statoil acquires stakes in Edvard Grieg
fields
• 39.000 barrels a day
• USD 100 million cash deal
• High potential upsides in new areas and
for future prodcution and value
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9. German policy must be more explicit on gas
•
•
9
IEA is urging Germany to clarify the role
of gas in the Energiewende
Bundesnetzagentur capacity scenarios
imply that emissions target will be
missed
Coal is likely to be more costly than gas
in the long run
90
Installed thermal capacity (GW)
•
90%
80
80%
70
70%
60
60%
50
50%
40
40%
30
30%
20
20%
10
10%
0
Power sector emissions (relative 1990)
BNetzA capacity forecast and associated emissions
Nuclear
Lignite
Coal
Gas
Calculated
emissions
Targeted
emissions
0%
2012
2024
2034
Source: Bundesnetzagentur
(Szenariorahmen 2013;
Scenario B),Statoil

10. Natural gas is crucial for the Energiewende
Power generation mix to reach Energiewende targets
•
Meeting the emissions target requires
a higher market share for gas
Coal and lignite generation must be
scaled down
100%
700
90%
600
80%
500
70%
60%
400
50%
300
40%
30%
200
20%
100
10%
0
0%
2012
2020
Power sector emissions (relative 1990)
•
Renewables need to be
complemented by flexible power plants
Power generation (TWh)
•
Other
Coal
Gas
Nuclear
Renewables
Emissions
2030
Source: IHS CERA, Statoil
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11. Norwegian/German cooperation in
changing energy markets
Anders Marvik
VP head of EU Political Affairs
anma@statoil.com
www.statoil.com
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