ICON_IMJ conference2012 chapter2_マーケティング投資配分最適化

予測される複雑性のレベルと対処への準備

不確実性の高い市場やより複雑になっていく生活者行動に
対して準備不足である。

IBM Global CMO Study 2011より
Copyright © IMJ Corporation. All Rights Reserved. 2

準備不足を意識しているCMOの割合


準備不足を意識しているCMOの割合

日々複雑化する市場の中で、効果的・効率的なマーケティン
グ活動を行い、企業価値を向上させるには？

マーケティン生活者属性
グ投資配分とメディアや
とデバイス毎の
売上・収益の接触行動を
関係を把握理解


Marketing Mix Optimization in Today’s
Complex Marketing Environment

© ThinkVine. All Rights Reserved.

What is Marketing Mix?

“Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted;
the trouble is I don’t know which half.”
- John Wanamaker

© ThinkVine. All Rights Reserved. 6

Marketers Are Challenged By Today’s Complexity

Exponential growth of Fragmented and multi-
marketing options platform media
consumption

Pressure to make Data deluge just
marketing accountable beginning in the digital
and transparent realm


Marketers Are Struggling to Meet these Challenges

65%
of CMOs told IBM they are
54%
of marketing execs told BCG
“underprepared” for the growth they do not have the tools
in channel & device choices, 63% required to make trade-offs
said it for demographic shifts across media vehicles

>50%
picked “measurement, analysis
9%
of marketing execs informed
and learning” and “integrating the CMO Council that they
cross-channel marketing” as #1 have a highly evolved,
and #2 challenges in a Unica poll integrated marketing model


A Revolution in Marketing is Underway

Planning From Hindsight to Foresight

Branding &
From Mass to Targeted
Communication

Measurement From Silos to Cross-Platform

Execution From Test & Learn to Bold Shifts

Process From Annual to Agile


ThinkVine Was Founded to Solve These Specific Issues

“Fast, Flexible, Forward-looking.” – VP, Marketing, Major Financial Services Firm

• Forecasts sales impact and ROI of
all marketing levers, including
tactics and targets not tried before

• Agent-based methodology allows
you to analyze marketing ROI by
granular tactics and individual
consumer segments

• Software-as-a-Service approach
enables simulations of “what if”
scenarios and collaborative
planning across organization


ThinkVine is Acknowledged as a Market Leader
“ThinkVine’s biggest strength is its focus on modeling how a group of consumers actually
behaves when exposed to a communication or a promotional or a social activity.”

The Forrester WaveTM on
Marketing Mix Modeling Q3 2011
Forrester screened 50 vendors
ThinkVine ranked as a Leader
• Highest-rated current offering
• Highest-rated methodology
• Highest-rated analysis
• Fastest growing company
• R&D with P&G and Pepsico


ThinkVine Has a Breadth of Experience Across Industries

Built a business case to Identified the optimal Found the best mix of Supported Sprite’s Informed a key new
obtain more marketing level of spend for the marketing to launch a strategy to target product launch,
investments to meet overall marketing new version of their specific consumers with including capturing
revenue objectives budget operating system marketing campaigns HCP influence


Customer Case Studies


• Business Goals Financial
• Increase market share Services
• Forecast revenue based on planned marketing
• Discoveries
• The current marketing plan would not deliver the revenue needed to
surpass annual objectives
• Successfully obtained incremental funding from board to close gap




Comparison of 2013 Marketing Plan Alternatives
+8.8%

185
+4.7%
+2.9%
Units (MM)

+1.8% 178
-1.2% 175
173
170
168

2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013
$180 MM $180 MM $175 MM $180 MM $180 MM $185 MM
Spent Budget Budget Budget Budget Budget

Same Mix Cut $5 MM Shift $5 MM Shift $5 MM Shift $5 MM
as 2012 in Print Print to TV TV to Digital Print to Digital
Add $5 MM TV



Branding &
Communication

• Increase overall number of new households Services
• Acquire new customers with high lifetime value
• Discoveries
• Specific types of mass media can activate high value segments better than
digital tactics
• Creating multiple marketing plans under one “umbrella plan” can help
better target specific segments based on CLV



Branding &
Communication
Marketing Tactic Effectiveness By Consumer Group

50+ Affluent

TV
50+ Other Radio
Print
<30 Affluent Digital Ads
Search
Mobile
Other <30

$0.00 $0.10 $0.20 $0.30 $0.40 $0.50 $0.60




• Increase share in the tablet and mobile device markets Services
• Adjust marketing levers across all tactics continuously
• Discoveries
• Specific types of digital tactics work better than others to drive adoption
• Online and offline media synergize well only as part of an overall integrated
campaign
• Responses to competitive activity have to be integrated as well




New
Economy
Households Adoption
60,000
Mass Media Digital Experiment +11%
50,000

New Device Activations
TV Print Search Display Mobile
40,000
Non-
By Market Magazine Branded Re-targeting Tablet
branded
30,000

Newspaper Google Google RTB OOH
20,000

Yahoo Yahoo
10,000

Bing Bing 0
Base Plan Optimized Plan
ROI = $2.25 ROI = $2.47




• Forecast impacts of new tactics not tried before Services
• Identify new channels of reaching younger consumers
• Discoveries
• Cinema and mobile advertising both show promise as new tactics, with
projected ROI metrics stronger than certain mass media tactics
• Shifting a portion of the budget to these channels can increase sales by 3-
7% next year




Planned Marketing Mix Proposed Mix with Mobile Added

Mass Media Mass Media
67% 61%

Promotions
11%
Digital Promotions
Digital Mobile
22% 11%
22% 6%

Forecast
2012 Original 2012 Add Mobile % Change

Volume 36,928 38,109 3%




• Optimize go-to-market plans for a new product Services
• Course correct throughout launch cycle vs. one-time
• Discoveries
• Incorporating consume and geographic segments as part of the initial pre-
launch optimization can improve launch success by 10% per year
• On-going results can be updated within 5-10 business days upon product
launch and provide on-going decision support




Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
25

20

15

10

5

0
1/1/2012 2/1/2012 3/1/2012 4/1/2012 5/1/2012 6/1/2012 7/1/2012 8/1/2012 9/1/2012 10/1/2012 11/1/2012 12/1/2012


ThinkVine’s Marketing Mix Optimization Software Improves
Marketing Across Multiple Dimensions

Spend Tactics
• What is my overall ROI and • How do I best allocate my
am I spending the “right” budget across a
amount to support my combination of vehicles to
brand? increase sales?

Targets Timing
• How do I best align my • How do I forecast long-
marketing to specific high term effects of marketing
value segments? and exploit seasonality?


Conventional Models are Challenged by the Complexity in
Today’s Marketing Environment
• Conventional marketing mix models directly solve for the relationship between sales
volume and past marketing tactics and excludes the notion of consumer differences

• No direct consumer-level
insights: does not support Fit and extrapolate
segmentation/targeting
• Can only “see” activities that
have large spends or cause
large variance
• “Backward-looking forecasts”
assume future is just like the
past
• Unable to use for media not
tried before

today


ThinkVine’s Approach Focuses on the Underlying Relationship
Between Consumers and Marketing
• “ThinkVine ranks as a Leader because of its innovative, agent-based approach to mix
modeling and its robust technologies” – Forrester WaveTM Q3 2011

Today Possible futures
• Agent-based simulation
technology
• 50,000 mathematically-
derived, computer generated
consumers that behave just
like real consumers
• Customers have described
ThinkVine’s methodology as
“Sim City” for CMOs

Forecasting via simulation

ThinkVine’s Methodology: Agent-Based Modeling
• Via billions of calculations, each run simulates what people in the market do
and how your marketing plan affects purchase behavior from the bottom-up

Marketing Activity Consumer Segments by Product Aggregated Sales


ThinkVine Overcomes the Flaws of Regression-based Mix

Regression fits a line to historical data and extends it
forward, assuming the future will be just like the past.
ThinkVine is predictive, using data and analytics to
simulate consumer response and purchase behavior.

Regression is run at the aggregate level, modelers try to
“tease out” info on marketing tactics and by group.
ThinkVine works bottom-up, delivering more accurate
forecasts and providing granular, multi-dimensional info.

Regression is usually a consulting project with reports.
ThinkVine’s SaaS approach enables your staff and
agencies to use an agile, objective, fully-integrated
planning process focused on improving results.


ThinkVine Delivers What The C-Suite Wants

Optimize ROI and sales across
all tactics, segments & channels

Quantify the effects
of proposed changes

Get better forecasts
of sales and ROI


ThinkVine's marketing mix optimization software
provides B2C marketers with the forward-looking information they need
to get the maximum return across all of their marketing investments.

See a 2 minute video overview at
www.thinkvine.com


ICON_IMJ conference2012 chapter2_マーケティング投資配分最適化

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