Weitere ähnliche Inhalte Ähnlich wie Supply Chain Risk Mitigation (20) Kürzlich hochgeladen (20) Supply Chain Risk Mitigation1. Welcome to Today’s Webcast
Supply Chain Risk Mitigation:
Minimizing Exposure to Supplier Failure, Volatile Commodity Prices, and
Manufacturing Disruptions
March 15, 2012
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
2. Today’s Speakers
Katie Lewis
Director, Procurement & Sourcing Solutions, IHS Inc.
Eric Pratt
Senior Director, Pricing & Competitive Analysis, IHS Inc.
John Mothersole
Principal, Industry Practices Group, IHS Inc.
Barry Hochfelder
Editor, Supply & Demand Chain Executive
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 2
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updates and trending topics from
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Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 3
4. Supply Chain Risk Mitigation:
Parts, Materials, & Suppliers
Katie Lewis - Director, Procurement & Sourcing Solutions, IHS Inc.
Eric Pratt - Senior Director, Pricing & Competitive Analysis, IHS Inc.
John Mothersole - Principal, Industry Practices Group, IHS Inc.
5. Early Survey Findings Reveal Priorities
Greatest Supply Chain Focus Areas
Negotiating Contracts/Individual Supplier Relationships
Managing Inventory Levels
Gaining Greater Visibility into the Supplier Network
Material Risk Management/Hedging
Low Cost Country Sourcing
Benchmarking
Geographic Mapping of Supplier Mfg
Parts Management
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
IHS Inc and Supply & Demand Chain Executive magazine 2012 preliminary Supplier Risk Survey results (data collection is ongoing)
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 5
6. Segmenting Supply Chain Risk
• Resting Risk
• Supplier Segmentation – Partner, Critical, Bottleneck, Transactional
• Fragmentation of Supply
• Conflict Metals or soon-to-be Non-Compliant substances in Supply Chain
• EOL and PCN alerts
• Counterfeit Parts
• Reactive Risk
• Natural Disaster Disruptions
• Political Disruptions
• Supply Disruption Alerts/Notices specific to supplier
• Cost – rising & volatile prices for key material inputs
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 6
7. Parts & Components: Resting Risk
Managing Scheduled Variations
Eric Pratt
Senior Director, Pricing & Competitive Analysis, IHS Inc.
8. Product Life Cycles & Technical Documents
Maturity
Decline
Growth
Phase-Out
Introduction Obsolete
New Product Introduction End of Life (EOL) or
Product Change Notification (PCN)
(NPI) Discontinuance (PDN)
New Product Introduction End of Life (EOL) or
Product Change Notification (PCN)
(NPI) Discontinuance
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8
9. Insight: IHS Analyzes NPI, PCN, EOL Data
Business Driver Stated by Manufacturers
LOW DEMAND, LOW SALES
Demand LOW INVENTORY
Demand-Side Economics LOW FORECAST
…
PB-Free Conversion
Environment REACH CONVERSION
Compliance and Sustainability ROHS CONVERSION
…
DIE CHANGE, MANUFACTURING PROCESS CHANGE
Technology NEW VERSION, TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION
Innovation, Technology, QUALITY ISSUES
and Manufacturing OBSOLETE MFG PROCESS, OBSOLETE TECHNOLOGY
…
COMPANY ACQUISITION
Organization FAB/FACILITY CLOSURE
Consolidation / Rationalization of
PRODUCT RATIONALIZATION/CONSOLIDATION
Company and its Products
…
SHORTAGE OF MATERIAL
Supply SUPPLIER OBSOLESCENSE
Supply-Side Economics
…
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 9
10. Insight: PCN/EOL Correlate with Market Trends,
Business Drivers, and Volatility
Component PCN 40% CAGR from 1997-2010 Lead-free creates 20% new EOL 2006-2007
End of Life (EOL)
Specific to RoHS/Pb-free Environmental Compliance
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Component EOL 40% CAGR from ‘97 to ‘10 Demand weakness 90% of EOL in 2009
2,600
2,500
2,400
2,300
Semiconductor MSI (Right Scale) 2,200
End of Life Parts % of Total Parts 2,100
2,000
1,900
.80 1,800
.75 1,700
1,600
.70
1,500
.65
1,400
.60
1,300
.55
1,200
.50 1,100
.45 1,000
.40 900
.35 800
.30
.25 IHS EOL insight found “demand side” primary reason for 90% of EOL
.20 actions in 2009, vs. more typical 15-20% citations during 2004-2008
.15
.10
Millions Square Inches Silicon Processed - Semi
Parts: IHS Electronics Database
.05
.00
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Charts Courtesy of IHS Inc., 2011
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 10
11. Today, Counterfeits Are A Big Deal
Risks to Company, Brand, and Performance
What is the Impact of Counterfeit Electronics?
(% Respondents)
Undermine compliance claims 44%
COMPANY
Compromise device/product security 37%
BRAND
Expose contractual liability 42%
&
Expose product safety / legal liability 55%
Damage brand / reputation 71%
PERFORMANCE OPERATIONS
Product launch delays 36%
PRODUCT
Production line stoppages 57%
&
Customer returns/recalls 67%
Product quality/reliability failures 84%
Increase product dev’pt time/costs 38%
FINANCIAL
Add to unit costs 51%
Inhibit sales / customer sat 62%
&
Reduce expected product life 64%
Increase warranty/maint. costs 65%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Source: Benchmarking Counterfeit & Inferior Grade Components,
Supply & Demand Chain Executive & IHS Inc., April 2009
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 11
12. Insight:
Counterfeit Incidents vs. Revenues 2001 – 2011
ERAI Accounted for Over 90% of High Risk and Suspect Counterfeit Parts Verified
and Reported from 2001-2011
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 12
14. Thailand Flood -Update
• Over 800 fatalities
• More than one-third of
Thailand flooded
• 7 million people affected
• 14,000 factories flooded
An aerial view of the Chaophraya River on Oct. 12, 2011 in Ayutthaya province, central Thailand.
(AP Photo)
The disaster in Thailand disrupted the supply chains of many industries.
• Direct Impact: Automotive production, Analog IC & Discrete Semiconductor
manufacturing, HDD manufacturing and assembly, Electronics Assembly –
PCs, digital cameras
• Indirect Impact: PC, DRAM, Set Top Boxes, Servers
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 14
15. Supply and Demand Analysis
Supply/Demand Analysis
SHIPMENTS CHANGE % ASP'S CHANGE % DAYS OF INVENTORY CHANGE %
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
Percentage
0.00% Toshiba plant before flood
Q1 '10 Q2 '10 Q3 '10 Q4 '10 Q1 '11 Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12E
-10.00%
-20.00%
-30.00%
-40.00%
Source: IHS
Toshiba plant during flood
Supply and Demand Analysis:
Q4-11: Total Q4 HDD shipment dropped 29% QoQ. Price has increased ~28% QoQ in Q4-11.
Q1-12: IHS expects Q1-12 shipment and inventory to improve due to increased production from
non-flooded HDD makers and component manufacturers. Price may start to decline for certain
drives.
2012: Situation will continue to improve. Inventory will increase and prices will gradually decline 3-
10% QoQ. Overall supply/demand equilibrium in Q312. Almost 12 months!
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 15
16. Disaster Effect: Japan Crisis
To what extent has your company’s increased How have prices changed for impacted
normal purchasing for commodities, materials, commodities, materials, or components?
or components believed to be impacted?
Not at all 9.2% Significant decrease in prices 0.0%
Somewhat 21.7% Slight decrease in prices 1.7%
Moderately 34.2% No change to prices 24.2%
Significantly 6.7% 60%+ Slight increase in prices 40.8%
Very significantly 2.5% Significant increase in prices 4.2% 45%
Not applicable 25.8% Not applicable 29.2%
How have you or your suppliers increased the Which of the following do you believe are true?
use of open market or other independent
supply chains to source critical parts?
Prices are/or will increase for commodities, 69.2%
materials, components or services we need
Material shortages or obsolescence will 49.2%
Not at all 18.3%
increase
Somewhat 24.2%
Counterfeiting of electronics will increase 55.0%
Moderately 10.8%
Significantly 8.3% 40%+ We will use new suppliers or open market 27.5%
sources to satisfy demands
Very significantly 1.7%
Not applicable 36.7% Other 7.5%
Source: IHS Online Poll
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 16
19. Material Risk
What Was Reactive Becomes Routine:
Rising Commodity Volatility
John Mothersole
Principal, Industry Practices Group, IHS Inc.
20. What Has Changed?
• Commodity prices exploded from 2002 to 2011
• Average annual growth rate of 15%
• Why should we care about commodity prices?
• This surge in prices has impacted profitability and complicated budget
planning - elevating purchasing’s role
• Higher prices joined by higher volatility in recent years
• Upside risk and downside risk combine to create wild gyrations in prices on a
month to month basis
• Emerging markets have exploded onto the global economy
• Influence will continue to grow over the next decade
• Resource nationalism is becoming a factor
• Investors are now firmly entrenched
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 20
21. Copper Versus Gold Prices
Which to Choose?
10000 2000
8000 1600
6000 1200
4000 800
2000 400
0 0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Copper, $/metric ton, left Gold, $/troy ounce, right
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 21
22. Price Volatility Has Increased
Standard Deviation in Monthly Price Changes*
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
1982-85 1986-89 1990-93 1994-97 1998- 2002-05 2006-09 2010-
2001 2011
*Gold, silver, oil, aluminum, copper, coffee, sugar, rubber, cotton, corn, w heat, lumber, steel
scrap, steel plate, HR carbon steel sheet
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 22
23. The ‘West’s’ Influence is Waning
Share of world GDP, measured in US dollars
2010 2020
Other Asia, Other Asia,
Mideast, Mideast,
Pacific Pacific
Africa Africa
20.5% 33.8%
5.8% 6.1%
Japan
8.7% North
Emerging North America
Europe America 20.1%
Japan
6.4% 27.1% 5.7%
Other
Western Other Emerging Americas
Western 7.1%
Europe Americas Europe Europe
25.2% 6.3% 7.5% 19.6%
US 22.9% US 16.9%
China 9.4% China 19.6%
India 2.7% India 5.5%
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 23
24. Is the Investment Climate Worsening?
Fraser Institute Global [Mining] Policy Potential Index
52
Lower score signals less attractive
48
mining environment
44
40
36
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 24
27. The Role of Investors
4.5 65
4.0
75
3.5
3.0 85
2.5
2.0 95
1.5
105
1.0
0.5 115
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
IHS Global Insight Industrial Materials Price Index, 2002=1.0, left scale
Trade Weighted Value of U.S. Dollar, 1973:3=100,inverted, right scale
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 27
28. Takeaways
• Commodity prices exploded since 2005
• Global economy continues to struggle from the Great Recession; however
prices have almost regained previous peaks
• A new higher cost profile has been placed under many commodities
• Volatility has increased significantly – and is likely a permanent
feature of supply chains
• This raises the need to not just track commodity prices but also
the corresponding factors that drive prices
• Build a cost profile of your key materials
• Identify key production centers and raw material exporters
• Be aware of changes and potential changes in policy – these do influence
investor flows
• Be prepared for volatility
• Formal hedging strategies should be considered if not already in place
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 28
30. Risk Survey (Preliminary) Results
Significance of Managing Supplier Risk to
Most Pressing Supplier Risks
Operational Plan
Supply Delay/Disruption
Extremely Significant
Quality
Very Significant
Cost
Moderately Significant Reliability
Environmental Compliance
Not Very Significant
Counterfeit Risk
Not At All Significant
Supplier Bankruptcy
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
IHS Inc and Supply & Demand Chain Executive magazine, 2012 Preliminary Survey Results (survey is on-going)
• Survey results confirm supplier risk management is integral to 2012
operational plans
• Delays and disruption are the biggest concern, with quality and cost
following closely behind
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 30
31. Understanding the Supplier Network
Supplier Relationship Management
• Building Partnerships
• Gaining Visibility
• Understanding Risk
• Avoiding Disruption
• Achieving Cost Savings
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 31
32. Assessing Supplier Risk
• The impact of a disruption to the supplier relationship should
influence your relationships with suppliers
• Balancing risk and cost is integral to effective supplier
management
For the most integral and high-value inputs to your supply
chain, grow strategic partnerships with your suppliers Partner
Value of Spend
For lower value, but still integral inputs coming
from a short list of suppliers, close inventory Bottleneck
monitoring is required
For highly competitive commodities and
parts, strategic timing of buys, effective Substitutes Available
contract negotiation, and benchmarking
mean cost savings
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 32
33. Thailand Floods
I read in the news that flooding during
the monsoon season in Thailand has
impacted manufacturing facilities in the
region.
•Will it impact my supply chain?
•What producers could be impacted?
•What facilities are in the path of the
floodwaters?
•Could these disruptions impact my
production schedule?
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 33
34. Thailand Floods
What if I knew instantly which of my suppliers had manufacturing
facilities in the region?
My suppliers
are clearly
marked, so I
can measure
the impact to
my supply
chain
If I know which suppliers were affected, and which ones supply my
production lines, I can react quickly when disaster strikes.
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 34
35. Managing the Supplier Network
Know Your Suppliers
• Tier 1
• Make informed decisions, balancing cost
and risk based on detailed supplier
information
• Tier 2
• The majority of manufacturers do not
have tier 2 or 3 visibility, increasing the
risk of unforeseen disruptions
• Tier 3
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 35
36. Supply Chain Risk Ratings
• Supplier Database
• Financial viability
• Revenues
• Cost of Goods Sold
• Debt
• Security of Supply
• Capacity
• Inventories
• Diversity of production facilities
• Counterfeit notices, responsiveness,
correctness
• Quality
• Reliability
• Innovation and Investment
• Capital Expenditure
• Growth Prospects
• Geographic risk based on production
• Diversification
• Cost/Productivity balance
• Infrastructure obstacles
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 36
38. Questions?
Katie Lewis
Director, Procurement & Sourcing Solutions, IHS Global Insight
Eric Pratt
Senior Director, Pricing & Competitive Analysis, IHS Inc.
John Mothersole
Principal, Industry Practices Group, IHS Inc.
Barry Hochfelder
Editor, Supply & Demand Chain Executive
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 38
39. For More Information
Send questions and requests for information to:
SupplierRisk@ihs.com
@IHS_SupplyChain
IHS - Design & Supply Chain
IHS_SupplyChain
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 39