IFPRI 2020 Panel Discussion "Nourishing Plants and People New Insights on How Fertilizers Affect Agriculture, Nutrition, & Health"

1. Fertilizers and agriculture:
meeting the challenges sustainably
Luc M. Maene, Director General, IFA
POLICY SEMINAR
Washington D.C., USA, 19 November 2010

2. Nature of food crises
Shortfall in aggregate food production/supplies
Widespread lack of access
Severe localized food insecurity
Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Source: FAO, 2009

3. World population growth
(billion people)
Undernourishment in the
Developed countries
Developing countries
world (million people)
10
8
6
4
2
0
Source: UN
Source: FAO
Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably

4. Changes in food consumption patterns
due to income growth
OECD production
p non-OECD production
p
OECD consumption non-OECD consumption World production
% change 60
2018
compared to 50
2006-2008 40
average
30
20
10
0
-10 Wheat Coarse Rice Oilseeds Oilmeals Vegetable Sugar
g
grains oils
Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Adapted from OECD-FAO (2009)

5. Renewable energy development
World biofuel production
Billion litres
160 Ethanol production Biodiesel production
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Source: OECD-FAO

6. World cereal production and area by region
2009p
PRODUCTION (million tonnes)
AREA (million hectares)
( )
Europe
122
73 465 334
N. America 468 Asia
1192
C. & S. America
109
49 160
163
Africa 36 20
Oceania
Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Source: FAPSTATS 2010

7. Population trends and nitrogen use
during the 20th century
World population % world population
no Haber-Bosch nitrogen
Haber Bosch fed by Haber-Bosch nitrogen
Haber Bosch
Average fertilizer input Meat production
50
Average fertilize input (kg N ha-1 yr-1)
6000
Meat production (kg perso -1 yr-1)
World populatio (millions)
5000 40
% Wor population
4000
on
30
er
rld
3000 World population
20
2000
N
on
n
1000 10
0 0
1900 1950 2000
Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Adapted from Erisman, et al. 2008

8. World cereal production and fertilizer use
1961-
1961-2010 (f)
Million tonnes
2500 Cereal production Fertilizer consumption
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Source: FAOSTAT and IFADATA

9. World fertilizer consumption trends
Mt nutrients
Developing Economies
p g 180
Transition Economies 160
Developed Economies 140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
---------------------------------------1961 to 2008 -------------------------------------
1961
Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Source: IFA

10. Total fertilizer use by crop
at the global level in 2006/07 (%)
Fruits & veg.
17
Other crops, 15
Maize
Mai e
16
Oil palm, 1
Soybean, 3
S b
Sugar crops, 4
Wheat 15
Cotton,
Cotton 4
15 Other OS, 5
Other CG 5
CG,
Rice
Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Source: IFA Agriculture

11. Total fertilizer use by crop
for the main countries in 2007/08
Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Source: IFA Agriculture

12. Fertilizer application to biofuel crops
2008/09
3.0% of
3 total N
Others
EU: rapeseed for biodiesel
Million tonn nutrients
 Impact of
2 Brazil: cane for ethanol
cellulosic
USA: maize for ethanol
ethanol on K
nes
4.8% demand ?
d d
1 2.5%
 What about
transition to
M
algae as
0 feedstock ?
N P2O5 K2O
Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably

13. Agriculture is being squeezed
Environ-
Conserving mental Climate
biodiversity concerns change
Population Rising
Ri i Limited
growth incomes, available
diet arable
diversification
di ifi i land
Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably

14. A moving target
MULTIPLYING CHANGING
LAND USE WATER DEMANDS ON CONDITIONS FOR
AGRICULTURE AGRICULTURE
• Urbanization • Growing scarcity, • New cropping • Changing
(often on fertile changing patterns, declining weather patterns
land), distribution, soil pools of (climate change),
deforestation, contamination, nutrients, new soil degradation,
reforestation, salinization… recycling loops in rural
wetlands nutrient cycles…
y depopulation…
p p
disappearing…
Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably

15. Limited immediate availability
of additional arable land
Arable area World population
m2 per person in billion
3000 9.5
9
2800
8.5
2600 8
7.5
75
2400 7
6.5
2200
6
2000 5.5
1996 2015 2030
| Source: Lammel (2007),
Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably citing FAO: Towards 2015/30 (2002)

16. Areas of physical and economic water scarcity
ON AVERAGE
• 1,000 litres of water are
needed to produce a kg
of maize
• 1,500 litres to produce a kg
of wheat
• 2 500 litres for a kg of rice
2,500
Little or no water scarcity • 4,000 litres for a kg of poultry
Physical water scarcity
y y • 15,000 litres for a kg of beef
Approaching physical water scarcity • 3,000 litres per person to
Economic water scarcity produce our daily food intake
Not estimated
Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Source: IWMI

17. Yield gaps and relative land availability
in different countries
Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Source: World Bank Report, 2010

18. Nitrogen use efficiency
Fertilizer consumption by region, 2007/08
(Kg/ha) Kg grain / kg N applied
East A i
E t Asia 243
West Europe 178 USA
North America 151
Latin America 130
South Asia 125
Central Europe
p 125 CHINA
WORLD 118
North Africa 78
South Africa 41
Africa 17
Sub-Saharan Afr 6
Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Source: (left) IFDC,
(right) modified from Bruulsema and Snyder, 2009

19. Efficiency: a win-win-win situation
win-win-
 Farmers face relatively high input costs and low
crop prices = excessive fertilizer use means
wasting money
 Industry has higher needs for energy and raw
materials = higher costs
 Nutrient losses have environmental
and human health impacts that are
expensive to mitigate
Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably

20. Opportunites in ‘mature’
and ‘developing’ agricultural sectors
developing
Industry to be engaged in the development of:
 educational programmes targeting farmers on the use  lless
of the most efficient technologies, IPNM, SSNM, fertilizer
balanced fertilization the “4R” concept, among others
fertilization, 4R concept per unit
 best agricultural practices including fertilizer best output
management practices (e.g. through computer-based
decision support systems, tools facilitating the  b tt
better
adoption of SSNM practices, tools for deep placement services
of urea granules, fertigation)
g g )
 Better performing products such as slow- and  higher
controlled-release fertilizers showing a smaller profits
price-differential
price differential with conventional fertilizers
Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably

21. Opportunites in ‘stagnating’ agricultural sectors
In countries where not enough fertilizer is used,
the industry should:
 raise the awareness of the policy makers so that
they create urgently the necessary enabling
environment to mitigate soil fertility degradation
 propose solutions ttailored tto th specific needs off
l ti il d the ifi d
the subsistence farmers in these areas (e.g.
small-size fertilizer bags).
g )
 new markets
Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably

22. Industry initiatives
y
 Africa forum
 F
Farming Fi t
i First
 Fertilizer use and human health
 Eff ti last-mile d li
Effective l t il delivery
 Protect&Sustain
The global fertilizer industry’s product
industry s
stewardship initiative
 Task force on climate change
 Water management initiative
Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably

23. Beyond the factory gate…
 Greater investment in agriculture
 More effective development aid
 Reform in trade and domestic policies
Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably

24. A BETTER, MORE SECURE FUTURE…
…a new, efficient,
dynamic and
competitive
p
agricultural sector
will unlock hopep
for millions of
children!
Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Source: Bationo,2009