Sustainable agriculture: is it optional, and can it feed the world?
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Presentation by Prof Robert Watson to IFAD on 30 March 2010
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Sustainable agriculture: is it optional, and can it feed the world?
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- 17. Changes in crop land and forest area under MA Scenarios Crop Land Forest Area
- 20. Agricultural emissions are significant in developing countries
- 24. Water withdrawal for agriculture
- 25. Climate induced percentage change in production in 2050: Irrigated Wheat Global production = -42% NCAR A2
- 26. Climate induced percentage change in production in 2050: Rainfed Wheat Global production = -28% NCAR A2
- 27. Impact on Wheat Production Page
- 28. Impact on Childhood Malnutrition
- 36. Maize C 4 Rice (C 3 C 4 ) Genes Climate Change, ©JES © IRRI © IRRI Adaptation to Climate Change
- 37. Climate Change, ©JES C 4 and C 3 comparison for current CO 2 conditions. WUE (transpiration) is water-use efficiency, RUE is radiation-use efficiency, PNUE is photosynthetic nitrogen-use effectiveness Maize is C 4 --- Rice is C 3
- 40. AKST Investments
Editor's Notes
- Over the past 40 years, globally, intensification of cultivated systems has been the primary source (almost 80%) of increased output. But some countries, predominantly found in Sub-Saharan Africa, have had persistently low levels of productivity, and continue to rely on expansion of cultivated area. in sub-Saharan Africa, however, yield increases accounted for only 34% of growth in production
- Over the past 40 years, globally, intensification of cultivated systems has been the primary source (almost 80%) of increased output. But some countries, predominantly found in Sub-Saharan Africa, have had persistently low levels of productivity, and continue to rely on expansion of cultivated area. in sub-Saharan Africa, however, yield increases accounted for only 34% of growth in production
- The UK has long recognised the nature of the problem facing mankind and has over the years taken a various steps to tackle its emissions. As you can see from this slide we have a range of commitments to reduce emissions, including the initial Convention commitment, the Kyoto target, our near term CO2 (-20% ) and our longer term 2050 target of -60%. Under the climate change Bill which I will discuss later we area also likely to commit to a medium level target of -26 to – 32% by 2018/2022.
- While energy use accounts for the lion’s share of GHG emissions in developed countries, agriculture (including livestock waste) and deforestation associated with land use conversion to agriculture account for almost 70% of GHG emissions from developing countries. At the same time, given its dependence on rainfall and other climatic factors, agriculture is particularly subject to the dynamics of climate change
- ADAPTATION Defra has a long running research programme (£5m p.a.) to assess what climate change will mean for UK agriculture and how land managers will be able to adapt to these changes . We know that crop yield will increase generally in UK but with greater variability due to extreme weather events. Hence our research focus on extreme weather . For example, research by Rothamsted and Warwick HRI has shown that: Different wheat varieties have different abilities to mitigate climate change. Those that mature early avoid risk of summer drought and heat stress, in comparison to slower developing varieties. High temperatures at flowering can substantially reduce yield. Sugar beet crop performance is unlikely to fail due to extreme weather, but yield variations are likely to increase with extended summer drought and changes in disease incidence. Options for adaptation can be very simple, such as sowing crops earlier, or winter shearing, but some options that require changes to the farm infrastructure will come at a higher financial cost. As part of our programme, a research and innovation Network has been established that will act as a catalyst and focal point for stakeholders involved in climate change adaptation in the UK and to develop innovative solutions, such as new plant breeds and technologies to improve water use efficiency. MITIGATION In parallel to the work on adaptation, we are also looking at ways to reduce GHG emissions from agriculture . A review commissioned in 2007 identified the current options available to farmers and what might be possible in the future. Current options available include increasing livestock nutrient use efficiency and making use of anaerobic digestion technology. Future options include using nitrification inhibitors from the soil, and feed supplements to reduce methane production from cows. The work also highlighted the need to improve the UK GHG inventory for agriculture , so that it can take account of emissions reductions from these activities, and we have work going on to do just that.