1. Jikun Huang Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy Chinese Academy of Sciences China’s Agricultural Development and Policies: Past Performance and Future Prospects

2. Average annual growth rate (%) of agricultural GDP Average annual growth rate in agricultural GDP was about 4-5 times of population growth rates.

3. Shares of output values within agricultural sector, 1980-2005 , (%) Within agricultural economy: falling the shares of crops, rising the shares of livestock and fishery

4. Shares of crop areas, 1980-2005 , (%) Rising horticulture and other cash crops…

5. Share of non-agri employment of rural labor, 1981-2006 (source: based on CCAP’s surveys)

6. Source (%) of farmer’s income

7. Per capita rural income in real term (1978=100)

8. Per capita real income: Rural vs Urban (indexed in 1978) Urban income / rural income

9. Inequality trend: Gini ratio in rural

10. Rural poverty incidence in China, 1978-2007 Under official poverty line Under $1/day in PPP %

11. Ca lories p e r capita per day (gram) Source: FAOSTAT Protein per capita per day (gram) Fat p e r capita per day (gram)

12. Share of undernourished in total population (%) FAO, 1996 and 2006

15. Institutional Reform

16. Total Factor Productivity for rice, wheat and maize in China, 1979-95 Rice Wheat Maize Institutional change (HRS) was major source of TFP growth in 1979-84 Source: Jin et al., 2002, AJAE

17. Small farming: Challenges for labor productivity, modernizing agriculture and food safety Average farm size (ha/farm) Source: NSBC Opportunity: Rising rental market …

19. Challenges: Percent of workforce off-farm, by age range Source: CCAP’s surveys 2006 95

20. Number of farmers’ associations in a national representative survey Source: CCAP’s survey in 2009

21. Percentage of villages with FAs: 22% Percentage of farmers participated in FAs: 4.5% Estimated number of farmers’ associations in China, 2008

23. Agricultural Technology

24. TFP of rice, wheat and maize in 1979-1995 （ 1979=100 ） Rice Wheat Maize Technology changes have been major sources of agricultural productivity growth after 1985 (Huang and Rozelle, 1996; Jin et al., 2002 ； Jun et al., 2008) In 1985-97, TFP grew at about 3%

25. TFP Growth Rates of Grains and Cotton ( 1995-2004 ) Percent per year Internationally, if a country’s ag TFP rises more than 2% a year, it is GREAT … China’s rate of rise is nearly 3 percent per year!

26. Agricultural research investment intensity (%) in China Government fiscal investment in agricultural research (billion yuan in 2005 price) Since 2000, the rise in research investment has been higher in China than any other country in the world …

27. Agricultural biotech research investment Huang et al., 2005, April, Science (million yuan in 2003 price) 2003: 1.65 billion yuan = US$ 200 million or US$ 950 million in PPP One of the largest investors in plant biotech in the world

28. Bt cotton areas in China, 1996-2007 About 7.1 million farmers adopted Bt cotton in 2007 （ 1000 ha ） （ % ）

32. Time location of local extension workers in 2005 Source: CCAP’s survey in 35 counties from 7 provinces

34. Market Liberalization

36. Government rice procurement and free market sales of grain quota free market” }

37. Integration in China’s Markets (percent of market pairs that have integrated price series) When using statistical tests (on more than 800 pairs of markets), almost all markets move together in an integrated way, up from less than ½ in the early 1990s (when markets were NOT integrated) 95 93 1997-00 98 100 2001-2003 46 Corn 56 Soybean 1991-92

38. Agricultural tariff rate (%): Prior to WTO accession (1992-2001) : 42%  21% China’s WTO commitment (2001-2005): 21%  11%

39. Nominal protection rates (%) in China, 1980-2005 This slide shows that while the prices of some commodities were much higher than world market prices in the 1980s (those commodities > 0) and many were way under world market prices (those commodities < 0)

40. Nominal protection rates (%) in China, 1980-2005 … by the 2000s, the prices of most of China’s commodities were nearly equal to the prices of the same commodities on world markets … this means that China is VERY OPEN … these numbers are more close to those in Australia and New Zealand than Japan, Korea or Europe

41. Input market liberalization Nominal protection rates of urea and other fertilizer, 1978-2001

42. Challenges: import has been rising faster than export since China joined WTO in 2001 China’s Agricultural trade during 1992-2006 China’s WTO accession

43. The Change of China’s agricultural trade (net export, billion US ） … China is beginning to move towards exporting those commodities in which it has a comparative advantage (e.g., labor intensive commodities, such as fruit and meat) … While importing land intensive commodities (such as soybeans and cotton) Exports – fruit, meats, aquaculture Imports – soybeans, cotton, hides

45. Agricultural subsidies/supports (billion yuan) 2004: 0.7% of agri GDP; 2008: 4% of agri GDP Subsidies and supports have been rising significantly, but most of them are decoupled, have little intervention in the market

46. Prospects of China’s Agriculture in the future

48. China’s Agricultural Import in 2001-2020 Under baseline (billion US$)

49. China’s Agricultural Export in 2001-2020 Under baseline (billion US$)

50. Self-sufficient level (%) of agriculture under baseline, 2001-2020