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Forest in Scotland’s climate change targets | Wendy Aubrey
1. Forest in
Scotland’s
climate change targets
1. What are the targets?
2. What are the trends?
3. Will Scotland meet the targets?
Wendy Aubrey
Technical development manager
Bioclimate Research & Development
18b Liberton Brae
Edinburgh UK EH16 6AE
Tel: +44 (0)131 664 3700
28/09/2011
2. Climate change targets
UK target is to reduce CO2 emissions by:
80% by 2050
Annual savings by 2010 Forestry sector annual savings in MtC:
•Scottish Share: 1.7 MtC •0.6 million tC by 2010 of the 2.7 MtC
•Target: 2.7 MtC •0.8 million tC by 2015
•1.0 million tC by 2020
Increase woodland cover
•17% in 2009 (1,334,000 ha) to 25% by 2050 (1,984,000 ha)
•650,000 ha of new woodland by 2050
Annual tCO2 removals by land converted to woodland since 1990
•0.7 MtCO2 by 2020
•4.4 MtCO2 by 2050
28/09/2011 SE, 2002 & CCSG, 2009
3. LULUCF inventory emissions and removals
Millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by category for Scotland
Scotland
removes
more
CO2e
than it
emits
CO2e includes CO2 (GWP 1), CH4 (GWP 21), and N2O (GWP 310)
Trends
28/09/2011 CEH, 2009
4. Climate change progress indicators
Indicator Last Value
assessed
Area of new planting 2005/06 3996 ha
2006/07 6594 ha
Increasing 2007/08 4186 ha
2008/09 3440 ha
2009/10 2717 ha
2010/11 5100 ha
Annual net carbon sequestration by land 2006 0.36 MtCO2
2007 0.40 MtCO2
converted to woodland since 1990 2008 0.42 MtCO2
Increasing 2009 0.43 Mt CO2
2010 0.45 Mt CO2
2011
Installed capacity of wood energy plant 2006 58 MWth 0 MWe
2007 67 MWth 44 MWe
(megawatt thermal and electrical: 2009 and 2008 64 MWth 44 MWe
2010 figures have been adjusted in line with 2009 180 MWth 64 MWe
SG reporting on renewable heat capacity for 2010 325 MWth 75 MWe
biomass.) Increasing
Number of non-domestic, wood fuelled 2006 49
2007 91
energy systems installed 2008 154
Increasing 2009 170
2010 217
Area of short rotation coppice grant aided 2005/06 34 ha
2006/07 162 ha
(Scottish Forestry Grant Scheme and Rural 2007/08 487 ha
Development Contracts).
28/09/2011
Decreasing 2008/09 10 ha
SFS, 2011
2009/10 0 ha
5. Areas of new planting in Scotland
28/09/2011 CEH, 2009
6. New areas of planting in Scotland
Annual
18.0
16.0 Target
16 thousand ha/yr
Annual area of new planting
14.0
12.0
(1000s of ha)
10.0 Actual new planting
Target new planting
8.0
Projection new planting
6.0
4.0
Projection
2.0
4 thousand ha/yr
0.0
Meeting targets?
28/09/2011 FC statistics
7. New areas of planting in Scotland
Cumulative
900 6
Actual cumulative
800 planting
Projection/Target 5
700
Annual MtCO2 sequestration
27% of the MtCO2/yr target Target cumulative
Cummulative area of new planting
600 4 planting
(thousands of ha)
500 Projected cumulative
3 planting
400 Target
827 thousand ha
4.8 MtCO2/yr Actual annual
300 2
MtCO2
200 sequestration
Projection 1 Target annual MtCO2
100 349 thousand ha sequestration
1.3 MtCO2/yr
0 0 Projected annual
MtCO2
sequestration
Meeting targets?
28/09/2011 FC statistics
8. Forest land in Scotland
Annual GHG removals
HIGH emission
0 thousand ha/yr
MtCO2/yr
MID emission
4 thousand ha/yr
LOW emission
14.6 thousand ha/yr
What scenario have we been following?
28/09/2011
MID to HIGH CEH, 2011 using CFLOW model
9. Forest area – planting and removal
Forest thousands of ha
2000 forest 1318
2010 forest 1343
Increase in forest (2000 to 2010) 25
New planting (2000 to 2010) 60
Difference (2000 to 2010)
Increase in forest (2000 to 2010) minus new planting (2000 to 2010) 35
Removal for windfarms (2000 to 2010) 10 to 20
1600
1400
Woodland area (thousands of ha)
1200
1000 Woodland area
800
Actual cumulative planting
600
400 Difference (Woodland area minus
new planting area)
200
0
Without areas of new planting, would forest area be decreasing?
28/09/2011 FC statistics, FC MAY 2011
10. References
CEH, 2009. Inventory and projections of UK emissions by sources and removals by sinks due to land use,
land use change and forestry. Annual report. CEH, DEFRA, 2009.
CEH, 2011. Emissions and Removals of Greenhouse Gases from Land Use, Land Use Change and
Forestry (LULUCF) for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland: 1990-2009. Amanda M. Thomson,
Stephen Hallsworth and Heath Malcolm, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology. April 2011.
CCSG, 2009. Combating Climate Change: A Role for UK Forests. National Assessment of UK Forestry
and Climate Change Steering Group, 2009.
FC Statistics. Forestry statistics. Economics and Statistics Unit, Forestry Commission. National
Statistics, 2001 to 2010. http://www.forestry.gov.uk/forestry/infd-7aqdgc
FC, JUN 2011. Woodland Area, Planting and Restocking. Forestry Commission, June 2011.
FC, MAY 2011. National Forest Inventory Woodland Area Statistics: Scotland, May 2011.
FCS, 2009. The Scottish government’s rationale for woodland expansion. Forestry commission Scotland,
2009.
SE, 2006. The Scottish Forestry Strategy. Scottish Executive, 2006.
SFS, 2011. The Scottish Forestry Strategy: 2011-2014 Implementation Plan & 2010-2011 Progress
Report. Progress indicators, climate change.
28/09/2011
