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Agents In An Exponential World Foster

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Ian Foster
Ian Foster

Keynote Talk Agent 2007: Complex Interaction and Social Emergence http://agent2007.anl.gov/

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Agents in an Exponential World Ian Foster Computation Institute Argonne National Lab & University of Chicago http://www.ci.uchicago.edu
Context ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Fundamental Dynamics (Pace of change of the digital infrastructure) Digital power = computing x communication x storage x content Moore’s law fiber law disk law community law doubles doubles doubles n every 18 x every 9 x every 12 x 2 months months months where n is # people (Thanks to John Seely Brown)
Exponential Growth Ho hum Something’s happening OMG!!
Relevant Trends ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
www.top500.org
www.top500.org
1974: IBM 370/195 2007: IBM BG/P 160,000 CPUs 556 Teraflop/s (BG/L)
0.5 TeraFlop/s, 1500 Watts SiCortex SC648, powered by 8 Trek bicycles @ ~260 Watts each
Microprocessor Trends ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],(Slide credit: Dan Reed)
Marching Towards ManyCore ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],(Slide credit: Dan Reed)
Gamers Want Manycore ,[object Object],[object Object],(Slide credit: Dan Reed)
 
 
 
Optical Networking Breakthrough! Capacity increase and new economics Revolution Source: Nortel 1993 1998 2002 1984 1994 1998 2000 Cost per Gigabit-Mile 50 Mbps 2.5 Gbps 1.6 Tbps 320 Gbps Moore’s Law
Optical Switches Lucent
Globus Downloads Last 24 Hours Last month
Phones: Wireless vs. Wired 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Lines (million) Mobile Fixed 1 Billion Source: Nortel
Earth to be Paradise; Distance to Lose Enchantment ,[object Object],[object Object]
Team Science ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Team Science meets Data Deluge
Information Big Bang 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 100 Exabytes 12 Exabytes All information per year Unique information per year All human documents produced last 40,000 years (to 1997) © Stuart Card, based on Lesk, Berkeley SIMS, Landauer, EMC
Images courtesy Mark Ellisman, UCSD
Images courtesy Mark Ellisman, UCSD
Images courtesy Mark Ellisman, UCSD
Images courtesy Mark Ellisman, UCSD
Post-World Cup celebration, Rome, July 9-10 (MIT’s Real-time Rome)
Madonna Concert, cellphone activity (MIT’s Real-time Rome)
Cell Phone Dynamics (Real-time Rome, MIT)
 
Bennett Berthenthal et al., www.sidgrid.org New Data Repositories
James Evans, Sociology Arabidopsis articles
Virtual Environments as Social Science Laboratories Fig. 3. Example of CensusPlus output from WoW W. S. Bainbridge Science 317, 472-476 (2007)
Science slide
First Generation Grids: Batch Computing Focus on federation of many computers for massively (data-)parallel applications EGEE Globus
Running jobs : 300 Running jobs : 300 PDSF Fermi EC2 BNL Running jobs : 230 Running jobs : 150 Running jobs : 50 Running jobs : 150 Running jobs : 300 Running jobs : 282 Running jobs : 243 Running jobs : 221 Running jobs : 195 Running jobs : 140 Running jobs : 76 Running jobs : 0 Running jobs : 200 Running jobs : 50 Running jobs : 150 Running jobs : 142 Running jobs : 124 Running jobs : 109 Running jobs : 94 Running jobs : 73 Running jobs : 42 Running jobs : 195 Running jobs : 183 Running jobs : 152 Running jobs : 136 Running jobs : 96 Running jobs : 54 Running jobs : 37 Running jobs : 0 Running jobs : 42 Running jobs : 39 Running jobs : 34 Running jobs : 27 Running jobs : 21 Running jobs : 15 Running jobs : 9 Running jobs : 0 Running jobs : 0 Job Completion : File Recovery : WSU
An Example Application: Functional MRI Data Analysis Globus
A Simple Analysis
SwiftScript ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],(Run or) reorientRun (Run ir, string direction) { foreach Volume iv , i in ir.v { or.v[i] = reorient( iv , direction); } } www.ci.uchicago.edu/swift
SF-Express (1998, Caltech & ISI) 100,000 entities 11 computers @ 9 sites 1386 processors
 
Digital Human: Simulation of the Human Arterial Tree on the TeraGrid Supported by NSF (IMAG, CI-TEAM and DDDAS) 1 L. Grinberg et al ., “Spectral/ hp simulation of the human arterial tree on the TeraGrid”, USNCCM9. 2 S. Dong et al. , “Simulating and visualizing the human arterial system on the TeraGrid”, Future Generation Computer Systems , Volume 22, Issue 8, October 2006, pp. 1011 - 1017 Brown University: Imperial College, London: Northern Illinois Univ. : L. Grinberg 1 , S. Dong 2 , A. Yakhot, G.E. Karniadakis S.J. Sherwin N.T. Karonis, J. Insley, J. Binns, M. Papka Team Members Globus
We Can Access Computing on Demand Public PUMA Knowledge Base Information about proteins analyzed against ~2 million gene sequences Back Office Analysis on Grid Millions of BLAST, BLOCKS, etc., on OSG and TeraGrid Natalia Maltsev et al., http://compbio.mcs.anl.gov/puma2
Second-Generation Grids ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],“ Service-Oriented Science”, Science , 2005
“ Web 2.0” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Declan Butler, Nature
Really Big Data Centers ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],(Slide credit: Dan Reed)
Web Services and Mashups ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],(Slide credit: Dan Reed)
Science 2.0: E.g., Virtual Observatories Data Archives Gateway Figure: S. G. Djorgovski User Analysis tools Discovery tools
Service-Oriented Science ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],! ! “ Service-Oriented Science”, Science , 2005
caBIG: sharing of infrastructure, applications, and data. Service-Oriented Science & Cancer Biology Globus
Integrating Thoughts ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
A Golden Age for the Social Sciences? ,[object Object],[object Object]
“ We can turn meteorology into a science” — Edward Teller (advocating his “Brilliant Eyes” satellite program)
Approach ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Scaling Parallel Discrete Event Simulation on IBM BG/L Results for PHOLD with 10 6 entities, 10 7 events Scaling relative to 2000 nodes 530 million events per wall clock second on 16384 processors (Kalyan Perumalla, Oak Ridge Nat Lab)
Argonne Exascale ABMS Project ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],(North, Stevens, Macal, Papka, Sallach)
Microbial Ecosystem Problem ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],(North, Stevens, Macal, Papka, Sallach)
For Example: Argonne Exascale ABMS Project Processors (North, Stevens, Macal, Papka, Sallach) Number of Bacteria Agents Network Agents Human Agents Basic Detailed Basic Detailed Basic Detailed 1 10 5 10 5 10 3 1 10 4 1 10 6 10 11 10 11 10 8 10 7 10 10 10 6 10 7 10 12 10 12 10 9 10 8 10 11 10 7 10 8 10 13 10 13 10 10 10 9 10 12 10 8
Concluding Thoughts ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Agents In An Exponential World Foster

  • 1. Agents in an Exponential World Ian Foster Computation Institute Argonne National Lab & University of Chicago http://www.ci.uchicago.edu
  • 2.
  • 3. Fundamental Dynamics (Pace of change of the digital infrastructure) Digital power = computing x communication x storage x content Moore’s law fiber law disk law community law doubles doubles doubles n every 18 x every 9 x every 12 x 2 months months months where n is # people (Thanks to John Seely Brown)
  • 4. Exponential Growth Ho hum Something’s happening OMG!!
  • 5.
  • 6.  
  • 9. 1974: IBM 370/195 2007: IBM BG/P 160,000 CPUs 556 Teraflop/s (BG/L)
  • 10. 0.5 TeraFlop/s, 1500 Watts SiCortex SC648, powered by 8 Trek bicycles @ ~260 Watts each
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14.  
  • 15.  
  • 16.  
  • 17. Optical Networking Breakthrough! Capacity increase and new economics Revolution Source: Nortel 1993 1998 2002 1984 1994 1998 2000 Cost per Gigabit-Mile 50 Mbps 2.5 Gbps 1.6 Tbps 320 Gbps Moore’s Law
  • 19. Globus Downloads Last 24 Hours Last month
  • 20. Phones: Wireless vs. Wired 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Lines (million) Mobile Fixed 1 Billion Source: Nortel
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23. Team Science meets Data Deluge
  • 24. Information Big Bang 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 100 Exabytes 12 Exabytes All information per year Unique information per year All human documents produced last 40,000 years (to 1997) © Stuart Card, based on Lesk, Berkeley SIMS, Landauer, EMC
  • 25. Images courtesy Mark Ellisman, UCSD
  • 26. Images courtesy Mark Ellisman, UCSD
  • 27. Images courtesy Mark Ellisman, UCSD
  • 28. Images courtesy Mark Ellisman, UCSD
  • 29. Post-World Cup celebration, Rome, July 9-10 (MIT’s Real-time Rome)
  • 30. Madonna Concert, cellphone activity (MIT’s Real-time Rome)
  • 31. Cell Phone Dynamics (Real-time Rome, MIT)
  • 32.  
  • 33. Bennett Berthenthal et al., www.sidgrid.org New Data Repositories
  • 34. James Evans, Sociology Arabidopsis articles
  • 35. Virtual Environments as Social Science Laboratories Fig. 3. Example of CensusPlus output from WoW W. S. Bainbridge Science 317, 472-476 (2007)
  • 37. First Generation Grids: Batch Computing Focus on federation of many computers for massively (data-)parallel applications EGEE Globus
  • 38. Running jobs : 300 Running jobs : 300 PDSF Fermi EC2 BNL Running jobs : 230 Running jobs : 150 Running jobs : 50 Running jobs : 150 Running jobs : 300 Running jobs : 282 Running jobs : 243 Running jobs : 221 Running jobs : 195 Running jobs : 140 Running jobs : 76 Running jobs : 0 Running jobs : 200 Running jobs : 50 Running jobs : 150 Running jobs : 142 Running jobs : 124 Running jobs : 109 Running jobs : 94 Running jobs : 73 Running jobs : 42 Running jobs : 195 Running jobs : 183 Running jobs : 152 Running jobs : 136 Running jobs : 96 Running jobs : 54 Running jobs : 37 Running jobs : 0 Running jobs : 42 Running jobs : 39 Running jobs : 34 Running jobs : 27 Running jobs : 21 Running jobs : 15 Running jobs : 9 Running jobs : 0 Running jobs : 0 Job Completion : File Recovery : WSU
  • 39. An Example Application: Functional MRI Data Analysis Globus
  • 40. A Simple Analysis
  • 41.
  • 42. SF-Express (1998, Caltech & ISI) 100,000 entities 11 computers @ 9 sites 1386 processors
  • 43.  
  • 44. Digital Human: Simulation of the Human Arterial Tree on the TeraGrid Supported by NSF (IMAG, CI-TEAM and DDDAS) 1 L. Grinberg et al ., “Spectral/ hp simulation of the human arterial tree on the TeraGrid”, USNCCM9. 2 S. Dong et al. , “Simulating and visualizing the human arterial system on the TeraGrid”, Future Generation Computer Systems , Volume 22, Issue 8, October 2006, pp. 1011 - 1017 Brown University: Imperial College, London: Northern Illinois Univ. : L. Grinberg 1 , S. Dong 2 , A. Yakhot, G.E. Karniadakis S.J. Sherwin N.T. Karonis, J. Insley, J. Binns, M. Papka Team Members Globus
  • 45. We Can Access Computing on Demand Public PUMA Knowledge Base Information about proteins analyzed against ~2 million gene sequences Back Office Analysis on Grid Millions of BLAST, BLOCKS, etc., on OSG and TeraGrid Natalia Maltsev et al., http://compbio.mcs.anl.gov/puma2
  • 46.
  • 47.
  • 48.
  • 49.
  • 50. Science 2.0: E.g., Virtual Observatories Data Archives Gateway Figure: S. G. Djorgovski User Analysis tools Discovery tools
  • 51.
  • 52. caBIG: sharing of infrastructure, applications, and data. Service-Oriented Science & Cancer Biology Globus
  • 53.
  • 54.
  • 55. “ We can turn meteorology into a science” — Edward Teller (advocating his “Brilliant Eyes” satellite program)
  • 56.
  • 57. Scaling Parallel Discrete Event Simulation on IBM BG/L Results for PHOLD with 10 6 entities, 10 7 events Scaling relative to 2000 nodes 530 million events per wall clock second on 16384 processors (Kalyan Perumalla, Oak Ridge Nat Lab)
  • 58.
  • 59.
  • 60. For Example: Argonne Exascale ABMS Project Processors (North, Stevens, Macal, Papka, Sallach) Number of Bacteria Agents Network Agents Human Agents Basic Detailed Basic Detailed Basic Detailed 1 10 5 10 5 10 3 1 10 4 1 10 6 10 11 10 11 10 8 10 7 10 10 10 6 10 7 10 12 10 12 10 9 10 8 10 11 10 7 10 8 10 13 10 13 10 10 10 9 10 12 10 8
  • 61.