Digital Resistance in Repressive Regimes
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Presentation given at the "Digital Media and Repressive Regimes" conference in Copenhagen, November 2008
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Digital Resistance in Repressive Regimes
- 1. Is Digital Resistance Reshaping the Public Sphere? Patrick P. Meier The Fletcher School at Tufts & Berkman Center, Harvard University
- 2. 1. Examples…
- 3. DigiActive
- 4. Philippines ‘01 - “Coup de Text” DigiActive
- 5. Philippines ‘01 - “Coup de Text” Spain ‘04 - “The Night of SMS” DigiActive
- 6. Philippines ‘01 - “Coup de Text” Pakistan ‘07 - “Flash Protests” DigiActive Spain ‘04 - “The Night of SMS”
- 7. Philippines ‘01 - “Coup de Text” Tibet - “Media Blackout?” Spain ‘04 - “The Night of SMS” Pakistan ‘07 - “Flash Protests”
- 8. Tibet - “Media Blackout?” Morocco ‘08 - “Exposing Abuse” Spain ‘04 - “The Night of SMS” Pakistan ‘07 - “Flash Protests”
- 9. Tibet - “Media Blackout?” Morocco ‘08 - “Exposing Abuse” Egypt - “Exposing Torture” Pakistan ‘07 - “Flash Protests”
- 10. Tibet - “Media Blackout?” Morocco ‘08 - “Exposing Abuse” China - “Live-Twittered Arrest” Egypt - “Exposing Torture”
- 11. 2. Question…
- 12. ICT a statistically significant predictor of protests events?
- 14. Data-driven
- 16. Data-driven Eyck 2001 Stodden and Meier 2008
- 17. Data-driven Eyck 2001 Stodden and Meier 2008
- 18. 4. Data…
- 19. Parameters
- 20. Parameters Protests ICTs Controls
- 21. Parameters Protests ICTs Controls Time period 1990-2007 country-year
- 22. Parameters Protests ICTs Controls Time period 1990-2007 country-year 22 regimes
- 23. Graphs
- 24. Graphs Protests
- 26. Graphs Protests Internet Mobiles
- 27. Summary Stats N = 396
- 28. 5. Methods…
- 29. Regressions
- 30. Regressions y i,t = i + 1 Int i,t + 2 Mob i,t + 3 Land i,t + 4 Autoc i,t + 5 Unemp i,t + 6 GDP i,t + i,t
- 31. Regressions Observed vs Projected
- 32. Observed vs Projected F i = y obs,i - y model,i
- 33. 6. Findings…
- 34. Results* *preliminary, subject to change
- 35. Results* Internet -0.12 (0.03) 99% sig level
- 36. Results* Internet -0.12 (0.03) 99% sig level Mobiles -0.06 (0.06) not significant
- 37. Results* Internet -0.12 (0.03) 99% sig level Mobiles -0.06 (0.06) not significant Other variables not significant
- 38. Results* Rsq = 0.613 Rsq = 0.155
- 39. 6. Conclusion & Next
- 40. Thoughts Why?
- 41. Thoughts Why? Other methods?
- 42. Thoughts Why? Other methods? Field research!
- 43. Thank You [email_address] www. iRevolution .wordpress.com <- blog Twitter @patrickmeier
Editor's Notes
- First chapter of dissertation Numerous qualitative case studies and even more anecdotes on digital media in repressive regimes What does this all add up to? Can we start measuring the aggregate impact of digital activism on repressive rule? Does digital resistance, that is, digital activism applied to strategic nonviolent action, threatening repressive regimes? Is digital resistance reshaping the public sphere? How can analyze quantitatively the qualitative, anecdotal impact of digital resistance, or lack thereof?