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Making Sense of Irrationality!
“Opening the Black Box”



                          By: Humayun Khan
Who is this “Homo Economicus”?

               •Supremely RATIONAL

               • Examines Evidence

               • Conducts a cost/benefit
               analysis before making a
               decision
Introducing “Homo Sapiens”

                  •“Homo Economicus”
                  model not disproved
                  because we
                  “SOMETIMES” make
                  mistakes.

                  •The proof lies in that in
                  certain circumstances,
                  we “ALWAYS” make
                  mistakes.
Amos Tversky& Daniel Kahneman–
   The Founders of Behavioural Economics
Question
• A bat and ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs
  $1 more than the ball. How much does the ball
  cost?
Two Modes of Thinking
• “I feel it in my GUT!”


                           Vs.




• “Use your HEAD!”
Key Points to Take Away
• Representative Heuristic or The Rule of Typical
  Things

• Availability Heuristic or The Example Rule

• Mental Accounting
 ▫ Sunk Costs
Read This!
• Linda is a 31 years old, single, outspoken, and
  very bright. She majored in Philosophy. As a
  student, she was deeply concerned with issues of
  discrimination and social justice, and also
  participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations
Ask yourselves…

How likely is it that she is:

 A) Bank Teller

 B) Bank Teller active in the Feminist Movement
How it works…
• If it looks like one, than it is one…

• This heuristic uses past learning to make
  decisions in the present, and predict the future,
  in the face of illogical thinking.
Ask yourselves…

Which one causes more deaths?

a) Smoking

b) H1N1
Are you more likely to be killed by?
a)                    b)
30% more likely to be killed by falling
Airplane Parts
• Forget “JAWS”, think more “RUDDER”…
How it works…
• When people are asked to judge how frequently
  something occur, people consult their memories
  for examples

• The easier it is for you find an example of an
  event, the MORE LIKELY or FREQUENT you
  think it is…
Why can’t you get a cab on a rainy day?
What to do with all that birthday
money?
• Pay rent, phone bill, utilities bill, cable
  bill…NAWWWWWW……

• How about alcohol, ipod, itouch, laptop,
  blackberry, or some new clothes…SOUNDS
  MORE LIKE IT
How it works…
• The concept of mental accounting states, that
  the source of the money affects how it is spent.

    Pay Check   OSAP      Scholarship   Gift Money




• So, when the cab driver makes his daily amount
  in a few hours, he closes the mental account and
  goes home, rather then work his shift and make
  extra money
Imagine…
 You arrive at a theatre and discover that you lost
 your ticket. Would you pay another $10 to buy
 another ticket?
Now, Imagine…
• You are going to the play but haven’t bought
  your ticket in advance. When you arrive at the
  theatre you realize you have lost a $10 bill.
  Would you still buy a ticket?
Sunk Costs

• Costs that have already been incurred and which
  cannot be recovered to any significant degree…
That’s All for Now

• I hope you now know or at least have started to
  wonder about, why we don’t make sense (all the
  time, that is).
References:
• Kahneman, Daniel, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky. Judgment
  Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge, UK:
  Cambridge University Press, 1982.

• Gardner, Dan. Risk: Why we fear the things we shouldn’t – and put
  ourselves in greater danger. Toronto, Ontario: McClelland &
  Steward Ltd., 2008

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Making Sense of Irrationality and Behavioral Economics

  • 1. Making Sense of Irrationality! “Opening the Black Box” By: Humayun Khan
  • 2. Who is this “Homo Economicus”? •Supremely RATIONAL • Examines Evidence • Conducts a cost/benefit analysis before making a decision
  • 3. Introducing “Homo Sapiens” •“Homo Economicus” model not disproved because we “SOMETIMES” make mistakes. •The proof lies in that in certain circumstances, we “ALWAYS” make mistakes.
  • 4. Amos Tversky& Daniel Kahneman– The Founders of Behavioural Economics
  • 5. Question • A bat and ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs $1 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?
  • 6. Two Modes of Thinking • “I feel it in my GUT!” Vs. • “Use your HEAD!”
  • 7. Key Points to Take Away • Representative Heuristic or The Rule of Typical Things • Availability Heuristic or The Example Rule • Mental Accounting ▫ Sunk Costs
  • 8. Read This! • Linda is a 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in Philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations
  • 9. Ask yourselves… How likely is it that she is: A) Bank Teller B) Bank Teller active in the Feminist Movement
  • 10. How it works… • If it looks like one, than it is one… • This heuristic uses past learning to make decisions in the present, and predict the future, in the face of illogical thinking.
  • 11. Ask yourselves… Which one causes more deaths? a) Smoking b) H1N1
  • 12. Are you more likely to be killed by? a) b)
  • 13. 30% more likely to be killed by falling Airplane Parts • Forget “JAWS”, think more “RUDDER”…
  • 14. How it works… • When people are asked to judge how frequently something occur, people consult their memories for examples • The easier it is for you find an example of an event, the MORE LIKELY or FREQUENT you think it is…
  • 15. Why can’t you get a cab on a rainy day?
  • 16. What to do with all that birthday money? • Pay rent, phone bill, utilities bill, cable bill…NAWWWWWW…… • How about alcohol, ipod, itouch, laptop, blackberry, or some new clothes…SOUNDS MORE LIKE IT
  • 17. How it works… • The concept of mental accounting states, that the source of the money affects how it is spent. Pay Check OSAP Scholarship Gift Money • So, when the cab driver makes his daily amount in a few hours, he closes the mental account and goes home, rather then work his shift and make extra money
  • 18. Imagine… You arrive at a theatre and discover that you lost your ticket. Would you pay another $10 to buy another ticket?
  • 19. Now, Imagine… • You are going to the play but haven’t bought your ticket in advance. When you arrive at the theatre you realize you have lost a $10 bill. Would you still buy a ticket?
  • 20. Sunk Costs • Costs that have already been incurred and which cannot be recovered to any significant degree…
  • 21. That’s All for Now • I hope you now know or at least have started to wonder about, why we don’t make sense (all the time, that is).
  • 22. References: • Kahneman, Daniel, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky. Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1982. • Gardner, Dan. Risk: Why we fear the things we shouldn’t – and put ourselves in greater danger. Toronto, Ontario: McClelland & Steward Ltd., 2008