The Future History of Artificial General Intelligence: Cognitive Robotics and the Global Brain, 2010-2040 After a brief survey of the state of the art in AGI, cognitive robotics and distributed Internet intelligence, we will extrapolate current technology directions forward, and look at some of the more plausible and interesting future possibilities. Special attention will be paid to the scenario in which global brain technology helps provide both background knowledge, collective hybrid human/digital computing power and human-friendly goal content for non-human-like, self-improving AGI systems. Dr. Ben Goertzel is CEO of AI software company Novamente LLC and bioinformatics company Biomind LLC; leader of the open-source OpenCog AI software project; Vice Chairman of Humanity+; Advisor to the Singularity University and Singularity Institute; and External Research Professor at Xiamen University, China. His research work encompasses artificial general intelligence, natural language processing, cognitive science, data mining, machine learning, computational finance, bioinformatics, virtual worlds and gaming and other areas. He has published a dozen scientific books, nearly 90 technical papers, and numerous journalistic articles. Before entering the software industry he served as a university faculty in several departments of mathematics, computer science and cognitive science, in the US, Australia and New Zealand. He has three children and too many pets, and in his spare time enjoys creating avant-garde fiction and music, and the outdoors.

1. The Future History
of Artificial General Intelligence:
2010-2045
Dr. Ben Goertzel
CEO, Novamente LLC and Biomind LLC
CTO, Genescient Corp.
Vice Chairman, Humanity+
External Research Professor, Xiamen University
Advisor, Singularity Institute and Singularity University

2. 2010

3. “Narrow AI”, rather than
“Artificial General
Intelligence” (AGI)
still dominates the AI field
Each “Narrow AI” program is (in the ideal case)
highly competent at carrying out certain
complex tasks in certain environments

4. Narrow AI helps fight disease
In 2005, Biomind’s AI found a ~100% accurate
predictor of Parkinson’s Disease based on
heteroplasmic mitochondrial mutations

5. Narrow AI helps fight aging
tumor suppression
metabolism heat shock
(stress response)
2009: Biomind AI infers aging
networks from gene expression data
from Genescient’s “Methuselah flies”

6. 2010:
AGI is on the Rise

7. agi-conf.org/2010

8. AGI-11
August 2011
Google Campus
Mountain View CA

9. one practical
approach to
advanced
AGI:
OpenCog
late 2010

12. At Xiamen University,
OpenCog is being used
to control a Nao robot

15. 2010:
The Robot Revolution
Begins

16. 2020

17. 2020:
Rise of the
Robot
Children

18. 2020:
Rise of the
AI Scientists
useful
animal/
useful early-stage AGI,
childlike + =
narrow AI such as
AGI
virtual AI scientists

19. A truly powerful artificial scientist will emerge from combining
childlike, commonsense-savvy AGI with multiple science-specific narrow-AI algorithms
Declarative
Probabilistic
Logic
Networks,
concept
Attentional/
Procedural Intentional
MOSES economic
(probabilistic attention
evolutionary networks,
learning),
Sensory Episodic
hierarchy of internal world
memory/ simulation
processing engine
units

20. one path to a powerful global brain:
AGI + narrow-AI + humans
+ communication networks
2020:
Emergence of
a more reflective,
deliberative global brain
spanning AGIs,
narrow AIs and humans

21. 2030

22. 2030:
One Big
AI Network

23. 2030:
Jacked into
the AI
Network

24. 2040

25. Kurzweil projects
technological Singularity
around 2045

26. Text

27. 2010

28. http://opencogfoundation.org/