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iWar3: Iraq + Oil Status
26 June 2014
War Room
HiddenLevers War Room
Open Q + A
Macro Coaching
Archived webinars
CE Credit
Idea Generation
Presentation deck
Product UpdatesScenario Updates
I. Market Update
II. Middle East TurmOIL Scenarios
III. History of Middle East Oil Shocks
IV. Energy Exposure – Good + Bad
iWar3: Iraq + Oil Status
HiddenLevers
MARKET UPDATE
Market Update
Bill Gross losing it
Rates divergence – EU/UKDubai Market Crash
Winter devoured Q1 GDP
sources: HiddenLevers, Forbes, Bloomberg, WSJ, BBC News, Business Insider
Q1 2015 Rate Hike?
Macro Snapshot
GDP is still positive + home prices rising = bond market signals no fear at all!
-2.9%
MIDDLE EAST TURMOIL – SCENARIOS
HiddenLevers
iWar3 – Mapping the Players
African Warlords
US Tea Party
Authoritarian
Democratic
Extremist Legit Govt
GOP/Dems
Al Qaeda
Taliban
China
Government
Occupy
Wall Street
Latin America
Drug Cartels
Iraq
Government
source: HiddenLevers, Foreign Policy
ISIS
Conflict Contained
Iran + US + Syria
stable Iraq good
for all three
recent uptick in
Oil burns off
US involvement
only diplomatic
oil fields NOT
in hands of
ISIS extremists
Iraq govt
more inclusive
or replaced
sources: HiddenLevers, New Yorker,
$95usd
Oil = 95usd
iWar3
Civil war,
not anti-US
insurgency
US Strikes Raise Tensions
firepower will
not fix Iraq
situation
Overt US actions
ruin Iran detente
Arab Spring
113usd high
Iraq matters
more than
Russia Ukrazy
Oil = 115usd
sources: HiddenLevers, New Yorker
$115usd
Israel will not
get involved
War Engulfs Gulf
Iraq govt gone
failed state
Oil all-time high
$135usd
look for burning
oil fields
Easy tell
Baghdad
in ISIS control
sources: HiddenLevers, Fox News NY Times
Lebanon
civil war
15 years
Oil = 150usd +
distinct from
Iran nuclear
threat
$135usd
Scenario: Middle East TurmOIL
Good
conflict
contained
Bad
US strikes
raise tensions
Ugly
war engulfs
gulf
If the conflict remains
in Syria and outside
of major Iraqi oil
fields, the market
eventually forgets.
Absent further risk to
oil fields, US strike
only raises oil risk
premium mildly.
If oil fields in
southern Iraq or
Kurdish-Iraq are set
aflame or taken
offline, oil prices will
spike substantially.
HiddenLevers
HISTORY OF MIDDLE EAST OIL SHOCKS
Middle East Oil Shocks – Never Forget
sources: HiddenLevers
Levers OPEC Embargo
Iran
Revolution
2011 Arab
Spring
iWar1 iWar2
Oct ‘73 - Mar ‘74 Apr ‘79 - July ‘80 Jan ‘11 - Feb ‘12 July ‘90 - Oct ‘90 Mar ‘03 - July ‘08
Oil +135% +166% +30% +95% +335%
S&P -17% +20% +5% -15% 46%
Gold +76% +182% +29% +10% +179%
10 Year Rates +11% +21% -44% -8% 0%
USD Index - - - - -29%
+135% +30%
Middle East Oil Shocks – iWar1 + iWar2
sources: HiddenLevers, CNN
iWar1 1990-91
- spike: US invaded Iraq
- retreat: Iraq pushed out of Kuwait
iWar2 2003-08
- spike: ME tension + rising
speculation + USD down
- retreat: Iraq drilling ban ends +
oil bubble pops + financial crisis
+95%
+335%
US Withdrawal from Oil Addiction
sources: US Dept of Energy EIA, USA Today
Shale oil explosion is driving US oil
production back toward all time
high
Oil imports have fallen below 9M
bbl/day from peak of 15M
Production has risen so much that
White House is ending ban on US oil
exports
US Withdrawal from Oil Addiction
source: Our Finite World , Oil & Gas Journal
Total US miles driven
down 3% from 2007 peak
while GDP up 7%
Less driving + better mpg
oil demand down 15%
from peak
US fuel economy rising
after being flat for
decades
New govt standards
require 54 mpg for 2025
model year
Iraq + Oil Status – Recap
US + Iraq both Oil Exporters oil shock history = history
US oil addiction over
--> better policy decisions
burning oil fields move the needle
HiddenLevers
ENERGY EXPOSURE – GOOD + BAD
In Azerbaijan, bathing in pure crude is encouraged
Bad Oil Exposure – Don’t trust ETF marketing
source: HiddenLevers
Oil Futures ETFs
Don’t Track Oil.
Physical Oil Funds
Don’t Exist.
Gold ETFs Track
Gold Perfectly.
Physical Gold Easy
to hold. Physical Oil
difficult to hold.
Good Oil Exposure – High Oil Correlation
Get investment ideas across industries, ranked by Oil Beta
Macro Picture – Global Deflation Risk
sources: HiddenLevers, Economist
technology automation commodities sinking
first world baby bust decreasing birth rate
sluggish GDP growth
So far, deflation trumps
geo-political worries
HiddenLevers Use Cases
scenario
Oil Prices
scenario
Global Deflation
iWar3 – Iraq + Oil Status
macro theme
High Oil Beta
Funds
data center
Commodities
scenario
Middle East
TurmOIL
• Universal Search
• Core Model Improvements – Monte Carlo
• Annuities Support
• Black Diamond Integration
Coming Soon:
- Lighting Fast Portfolio Entry
- Landscape Layout
Product Update

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iWar3 Iraq + Oil Status War Room Slides

  • 1. iWar3: Iraq + Oil Status 26 June 2014 War Room
  • 2. HiddenLevers War Room Open Q + A Macro Coaching Archived webinars CE Credit Idea Generation Presentation deck Product UpdatesScenario Updates
  • 3. I. Market Update II. Middle East TurmOIL Scenarios III. History of Middle East Oil Shocks IV. Energy Exposure – Good + Bad iWar3: Iraq + Oil Status
  • 5. Market Update Bill Gross losing it Rates divergence – EU/UKDubai Market Crash Winter devoured Q1 GDP sources: HiddenLevers, Forbes, Bloomberg, WSJ, BBC News, Business Insider Q1 2015 Rate Hike?
  • 6. Macro Snapshot GDP is still positive + home prices rising = bond market signals no fear at all! -2.9%
  • 7. MIDDLE EAST TURMOIL – SCENARIOS HiddenLevers
  • 8. iWar3 – Mapping the Players African Warlords US Tea Party Authoritarian Democratic Extremist Legit Govt GOP/Dems Al Qaeda Taliban China Government Occupy Wall Street Latin America Drug Cartels Iraq Government source: HiddenLevers, Foreign Policy ISIS
  • 9. Conflict Contained Iran + US + Syria stable Iraq good for all three recent uptick in Oil burns off US involvement only diplomatic oil fields NOT in hands of ISIS extremists Iraq govt more inclusive or replaced sources: HiddenLevers, New Yorker, $95usd Oil = 95usd iWar3 Civil war, not anti-US insurgency
  • 10. US Strikes Raise Tensions firepower will not fix Iraq situation Overt US actions ruin Iran detente Arab Spring 113usd high Iraq matters more than Russia Ukrazy Oil = 115usd sources: HiddenLevers, New Yorker $115usd Israel will not get involved
  • 11. War Engulfs Gulf Iraq govt gone failed state Oil all-time high $135usd look for burning oil fields Easy tell Baghdad in ISIS control sources: HiddenLevers, Fox News NY Times Lebanon civil war 15 years Oil = 150usd + distinct from Iran nuclear threat $135usd
  • 12. Scenario: Middle East TurmOIL Good conflict contained Bad US strikes raise tensions Ugly war engulfs gulf If the conflict remains in Syria and outside of major Iraqi oil fields, the market eventually forgets. Absent further risk to oil fields, US strike only raises oil risk premium mildly. If oil fields in southern Iraq or Kurdish-Iraq are set aflame or taken offline, oil prices will spike substantially.
  • 14. Middle East Oil Shocks – Never Forget sources: HiddenLevers Levers OPEC Embargo Iran Revolution 2011 Arab Spring iWar1 iWar2 Oct ‘73 - Mar ‘74 Apr ‘79 - July ‘80 Jan ‘11 - Feb ‘12 July ‘90 - Oct ‘90 Mar ‘03 - July ‘08 Oil +135% +166% +30% +95% +335% S&P -17% +20% +5% -15% 46% Gold +76% +182% +29% +10% +179% 10 Year Rates +11% +21% -44% -8% 0% USD Index - - - - -29% +135% +30%
  • 15. Middle East Oil Shocks – iWar1 + iWar2 sources: HiddenLevers, CNN iWar1 1990-91 - spike: US invaded Iraq - retreat: Iraq pushed out of Kuwait iWar2 2003-08 - spike: ME tension + rising speculation + USD down - retreat: Iraq drilling ban ends + oil bubble pops + financial crisis +95% +335%
  • 16. US Withdrawal from Oil Addiction sources: US Dept of Energy EIA, USA Today Shale oil explosion is driving US oil production back toward all time high Oil imports have fallen below 9M bbl/day from peak of 15M Production has risen so much that White House is ending ban on US oil exports
  • 17. US Withdrawal from Oil Addiction source: Our Finite World , Oil & Gas Journal Total US miles driven down 3% from 2007 peak while GDP up 7% Less driving + better mpg oil demand down 15% from peak US fuel economy rising after being flat for decades New govt standards require 54 mpg for 2025 model year
  • 18. Iraq + Oil Status – Recap US + Iraq both Oil Exporters oil shock history = history US oil addiction over --> better policy decisions burning oil fields move the needle
  • 19. HiddenLevers ENERGY EXPOSURE – GOOD + BAD In Azerbaijan, bathing in pure crude is encouraged
  • 20. Bad Oil Exposure – Don’t trust ETF marketing source: HiddenLevers Oil Futures ETFs Don’t Track Oil. Physical Oil Funds Don’t Exist. Gold ETFs Track Gold Perfectly. Physical Gold Easy to hold. Physical Oil difficult to hold.
  • 21. Good Oil Exposure – High Oil Correlation Get investment ideas across industries, ranked by Oil Beta
  • 22. Macro Picture – Global Deflation Risk sources: HiddenLevers, Economist technology automation commodities sinking first world baby bust decreasing birth rate sluggish GDP growth So far, deflation trumps geo-political worries
  • 23. HiddenLevers Use Cases scenario Oil Prices scenario Global Deflation iWar3 – Iraq + Oil Status macro theme High Oil Beta Funds data center Commodities scenario Middle East TurmOIL
  • 24. • Universal Search • Core Model Improvements – Monte Carlo • Annuities Support • Black Diamond Integration Coming Soon: - Lighting Fast Portfolio Entry - Landscape Layout Product Update