Craig Weber & Chris Soderquist Presentation at 2016 Science of HOPE Description: This session will help community partners better recognize the “adaptive challenges” they face in the key goals and activities they’re pursuing. Better still, we’ll provide an overview of the core adaptive learning skills necessary to help them better address those challenges: systems thinking, conversational capacity, and a “Yes to the mess” mindset. Specific attention will be given to how these interrelated skills can accelerate community engagement and learning. 

1. Using System Dynamics to Build
Collective, Operational Understanding
or
Getting Everyone “On the Same Page”
A session for the Science of HOPE Conference
Presented by
Chris Soderquist, Pontifex Consulting
April 19, 2016

2. Purpose, Process, Payoff
Purpose
Provide an overview of
System Dynamics
Process
• Overview
• Expectations
• Mental Models
• The Purpose of
Simulation Modeling
• Attributes of Good
Models
• Understanding
Counterintuitive
Behavior
• How to Build Models
• Foundation for Healthy
Generations Model
• Q&A
Payoff
By the end of this
session you’ll be able
to...
•Describe the purpose
of simulation modeling
•Utilize insights derived
from modeling projects
•Contribute to a
modeling project

3. Expectations
• Very broad brush of system dynamics – the session
may seem a blur!!
• We could spend (at least!) a day on many concepts
• Will engage both the left & right side of the
brain...Brain Pain
• We can speed up, slow down, or mix it up…based
on your needs
• FUN!!!!

4. Staffing at General Hospital
1. The hospital has two kinds of nurses:
experienced and inexperienced.
2. The hospital has a large number of
experienced nurses.
3. Experienced nurses have been quitting at the
same rate each month for several years (i.e.,
every month the same number of experienced
nurses quit).
4. The "staffing policy" has been to hire a new
(inexperienced) nurse as soon as an
experienced one quits.
5. The hospital’s training program is "perfect."
All inexperienced nurses become experienced
in exactly 6 months!
6. The training is so engaging that no
inexperienced nurses ever quit before
completing the program!
What pattern over time will be traced by
the number of Experienced Nurses
following the step-increase in quitting
volume?
Suppose that 3 months from now, the
volume of experienced nurses quitting
steps up by a small amount to a new
level, and then remains at this level
forever.
The hospital will continue their policy of
hiring one inexperienced nurse for each
experienced nurse that quits.
Month
A__
B__
C__
D__
E__
F__
G__

5. OBSERVATIONS...
BTW Don’t worry if you got it wrong
Most people do…I got it wrong the first time
I once presented to a room of 30 aeronautical engineers (i.e. rocket scientists) – they all got it wrong!!!
Observation
Systems Thinking can help
get people on the same page
about…
•What is happening and
what might happen in the
future
•Why this is happening
(what’s the physics of the
system)
•What would be the most
effective strategy for
handling
Beliefs about different
expected behaviors will
lead to extremely diverse
(diametrically opposed!)
ideas about...
• Is the behavior a
problem?
• If so, “what to do”
Differences were not
magnitude but kinds of
behavior (e.g. not
predicting actual amount
of staff, only whether it
would increase or
decrease, and if so, how)

6. Realist
I use models all the -me to make
decisions,
they’re just implicit and usually untested.
I can use a model to make my
assump-ons explicit, share them,
improve them, and test them.
It will improve our ability to rigorously
discuss the issues!
“
Cynic
It’s only a model!
The world is much more complex, so
it’s not useful.
Our situa-on is unique so
your model doesn’t apply. “
Mys-c
It can predict the future.
If I can just get everything
into the model, then
it will be perfect.
Perspectives on Models
All models are wrong, some are useful! — Box & Deming

7. Operational Thinking
vs. Correlational Thinking
Correlational Model
US Milkt = f(US Milkt-1, IRt-1, GDPt-1, Feed pricet-1, ...)
Operational Model
Operational models identify levers!

8. Feedback Loop Thinking
vs. Linear Thinking
Example
What makes for a successful organization?
Success
Leadership
Good staff
Great product
Profits
•Linear Thinking (aka Static
Thinking) says that…
•This causes that (X
causes Y)…enough
said!
•Feedback Loop Thinking
views causality as circular
rather than unidirectional in
nature.
•Implications: static vs.
dynamic/ongoing process
perspective, exogenous vs.
endogenous viewpoint.

9. By using models, we can better understand
counterintuitive results

10. How to build (and frame)
useful systems models
…and then add breadth and a bit more detail – slowly!
Representing “the system”
1. Low Road
My advice: Take the High Road!
2.Getupoutoftheweeds…
Breadth (Time/Space)
(extensive boundary)
Depth
(intensive boundary)
Shallow
Highly
Aggregated
Deep
Highly
Disaggregated
Narrowly
Focused
Broadly
Focused
Many
mental models
are here
Good “systems”
models are here

11. The inevitable result of it’s all connected
http://minstrelboy.blogspot.com/2009/12/military-plan-for-afghan-war-surge-in.html
http://www.closetcooking.com/2007/07/spaghetti-
alla-carbonara-with-twist.html
Example courtesy of Steve Peterson,The Peterson Group

12. To get on the High Road (and stay there!),
All models are wrong, some are useful
- George Box & Ed Deming
Other things being equal, a
simpler explanation is better
than a more complex one
- William of Occam, Occam’s Razor
A model should be
as simple as
possible, but no
simpler
- Albert Einstein
“…details are
confusing. It is only
by selection, by
elimination, by
emphasis, that we
get at the real
meaning of things…”
- Georgia O’Keefe
"Any intelligent fool can make
things bigger and more complex.
It takes a touch of genius and a
lot of courage to move in the
opposite direction."
—A. Einstein

13. Match your initiatives to leverage points
Reducing symptom impact
on ACE occurrence
_________________________
_________________________
_________________________
_________________________
Increasing/building community
capacity
____________________________
____________________________
____________________________
____________________________
Improving social/economic
environment.. addressing social determinants
of health
_________________________________
_________________________________
_________________________________
Improving social/economic
environment.. addressing social determinants
of health
_________________________________
_________________________________
_________________________________
Reducing the generation of stress
_________________________________
_________________________________
_________________________________
_________________________________
_________________________________

14. How to use learning labs
(built on simulation models)
MINDSET = Learner!
✦Participate with
intention to learn
✦Participant goals
✦Articulate "theories"
and predict outcomes
✦Engage with any gap
between a prediction
and simulated
outcome
I’m here to learn about
•the issues
•myself
•my colleagues’ perspectives
What do I know about
childhood trauma?
If we did X, what do I
predict would happen?
Hmm! Why didn’t what I
expect happen?!
What assumptions are different
in the lab than mine?

15. YouthViolence Model

16. Foundation for Healthy Generations
Model

17. Model Purpose
The Healthy Generation system dynamics model will
Eventually be
given to
communities for
capacity building
and strategy
development
Begin guiding
foundation’s
(and its
network’s)
investment
strategies
Be modified
regularly as
system
understanding
improves
2016 2017 2018
Last half of…

18. 2000 2050
Food Security
2000 2050
Crime
2000 2050
Intergenerational ACEs
2000 2050
Adult Functioning
Health & Productivity
Happiness/Fulfilment
Hope
Avg Education level
Interventions
Improve view of self
(Postive efficacy)
Capabilities
Relational / Intimate
Partner / Parenting Skills
Education & Work Skills
Belonging w/ Those Who
Care for Us Daily
Attachment
Healthy Social Network
Social Bridging
Rights & Responsibilities
Framework
Community
Health & Effectiveness
of Programs / Services
Community Muscle

19. …and then add breadth and a bit more detail – slowly!
Representing “the system”
1. Low Road
My advice: Take the High Road!
2.Getupoutoftheweeds…
Breadth (Time/Space)
(extensive boundary)
Depth
(intensive boundary)
Shallow
Highly
Aggregated
Deep
Highly
Disaggregated
Narrowly
Focused
Broadly
Focused
Many
mental models
are here
Good “systems”
models are here

20. • Advocacy
• Marriage / Intimate Partner Commitment
• Education & Work Skills
• Social / Emotional Intelligence Skills
• Executive Functioning Skills
Examples
Capabilities

21. • Bridging Capital
• Reciprocity / Giving Back to Community
• Built & Natural Environment
Examples
Attachment

22. • Space for Cultural / Spiritual Expression
• Rhythm / Ritual / Engagement with Others
Examples
Community

23. Model
Community
Currently modeled To Be Developed
Population by…
• Age
• Economic strata
ACEs
Bonding (social) capital
Protective Factors
Local economic engine
Bridging capital
Core Model Structure

24. Age classes*
• Current age classes are…
• Work?
*deaths and migration not shown
0-4 5-14 15-24 25-44 45-64 65+

25. ACEs
As the population ages…
• ACEs first accumulate (in childhood years)
• Then move up to next age category

26. ACE incidence
Calculate current incidence rate
Increases in risk
factors will change
incidence
Risk factors
• ACE Prevalence
in adult population
• Income deficiency
• Other
Increases in protective
factors will reduce
incidence
Protective factors
• Bonding Capital
• Bridging Capital
• Other

27. Economic strata
• 3D icon indicates
multiple strata
• Model currently
assumes 2 strata
• How do / should
communities
classify to be
useful?
INCOME
<200% Federal Poverty Level?

28. Community Muscle
• Erodes as ACEs in adult population increases
• ACEs in adult population can decrease effectiveness
of investments in community muscle
• What does investing in community muscle look like?
• How does it work?

29. Bridging Capital
• What generates it? What does investing in
bridging capital look like?
• How does it erode?

30. Protective Factors
• What are the most
important ones?
• How might you
define resilience as
one factor or a
combination of
factors?
• Advocacy
• Marriage / Intimate
Partner Commitment
• Education & Work Skills
• Social / Emotional
Intelligence Skills
• Executive Functioning
Skills

31. Protective Capabilities/Factors – When built?
0-4 5-14 15-24 25-44 45-64 65+
Advocacy
Marriage /
Intimate Partner
Commitment
Education &
Work Skills
Social /
Emotional
Intelligence Skills
Executive
Functioning
Skills
None?
Some?
A lot?

32. Chris Soderquist
Pontifex Consulting
PO Box 64
Hanover, NH 03755
(603) 276-0203
chris@findinghighleverage.com
findinghighleverage.com
Systems Thinking Resources
An Introduction to Systems Thinking
with iThink
Author: Barry Richmond
Publisher: isee systems
Thinking in Systems: A Primer
Author: Donella Meadows
Publisher: Chelsea Green
Publishing Company (2008)
Finding Leverage
Chris Soderquist
Producer: Banyan Communications
Sponsor: The National Association of Chronic
Disease Directors
https://vimeo.com/122034667
There are additional videos and
articles on my resources page