HỌC TỐT TIẾNG ANH 11 THEO CHƯƠNG TRÌNH GLOBAL SUCCESS ĐÁP ÁN CHI TIẾT - CẢ NĂ...
Yaser Abu Nasr_The Spatial Dimension of Adaptation Planning: The MENA Context
1. The Spatial Dimension of Adaptation Planning
The MENA Context
Yaser Abunnasr
American University of Beirut
University of Massachusetts Amherst
October 03, 2012
Second Regional Summer School
September 30 to October 04, 2012
Amman, Jordan
4. Introduction
Livelihood Resources Urban Places
The physical dimension of livelihood resources
• Places for: living, work, recreation, governance &
commerce supported by transportation and utility networks
What kind of places are we creating?
How are we developing our cities?
• Response to and impact on
Where are we developing our cities?
• Vulnerable locations
Population growth & rural‐urban migration
Transformation of pre‐development landscape
Contributing to and recipient of climate change impacts
Urban micro‐climate
6. Introduction
Climate Change
Assumption that climate
change will happen
Fossil Fuel Emission (GtC per yr.)
Historic Emissions
Increasing emissions
Probable global 4° C warmer
climate by end of century
Augments existing problems
Uncertainty Time (Yr.)
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
International Energy Agency
Compounded effect on A1B A1T B1
A1FI A2 B2
micro‐climates
8. Introduction
Urban Places as Recipients of Climate Change Impacts
General Climate change
impacts
• Rising Sea level
• Erratic precipitation
regimes
• Increased temperatures
• Droughts
Exasperating vulnerable
communities problems: access
to water, sanitation, etc.
Probable 4° C warmer climate
by end of century
Augments existing problems
Precursor for immediate
action
9. Introduction
Mitigation in urban places Adaptation in urban places
Reduce sources of emissions Adjust systems to new
= not place specific conditions
Global Scale Local Scale
Denser cities A new condition: Probable
• Energy efficiency 4°C warmer climate by end of
century
• Reduce driving = public
transport Augments existing problems
• Green Infrastructure as CO2 Precursor for immediate
sink action
• Vegetate surfaces Context of cities
• Technological solutions ‐ Should be done in a
reduce energy use, efficient sustainable manner:
cars, local renewable environmentally sensitive
energies and inclusive
10. Introduction
Where is adaptation as a planning process, acceptance, and action?
Still lags behind mitigation
Immediate investment
Expensive
Requires acceptance by communities, investments, justifications
Requires buy‐in by politicians to act
Urban vulnerable populations: the poor, least access, no
services, etc.
Can begin today, everyone can contribute
While small actions are important what do they sum up to?
• Need larger vision, targets, and performance benchmarks
11. Part 2: Adaptation Planning Process
Conventional land use & urban planning
Tabula Rasa Approach: Little
consideration to environment,
climate, and local characteristics
Basis: Transport economically
based
Zoning: Single use per zone
Data for planning: predictable &
certain
Procedural process: 1)Recognition
of need 2)Identify objectives
3)Research 4)plan formulation
5)plan implementation 6)monitor,
review and revise.
Conditions: static and predictive
Planning time horizons: 5, 10, 20
years maximum
19. Part 2: Adaptation Planning Process
Vulnerable populations
The urban poor: depends on how we measure: income, access
to food and water, health, gender, etc.
IPCC vulnerable communities:
• Least able to avoid direct and indirect impacts
• Likely to be most effected
• Least able to cope health, loss of income, etc.
Direct impacts: flooding, direct damage of dwellings, death.
Indirect Impacts: less food, lower nutrition, access to even less
water, loss of income
Location of poor agglomerations within cities
• Riskiest urban environments: low lying areas, flood plains,
unstable slopes = most risk from climate change
• Compounded effect of human congestion
20. Part 2: Adaptation Planning Process
Adaptation measures
Less cost
Mainstreaming No‐ regrets measures, delivering benefits that
exceed their costs, whatever the extent of
Intensity & cost of measures
climate change
Low‐regrets measures are low cost, and have
potentially large benefits under climate
change
Win‐Win measures contribute to climate
adaptation and also deliver other benefits
Flexible measures are useful for dealing with
uncertainties in the extent of longer‐term
climate change
One time, large scale measures/investments,
in response to large scale risks beyond
More cost
Transformative projections, immediate and targeted benefits
37. Concluding Remarks
Points to think about
Doom and gloom approach OR an opportunity to improve
places we live
Livable cities: greening, walkable, energy efficiency,
performance based etc.
Cities as equitable places
Plan long term, not dogmatic, but flexible to allow for change
during the process = emerging results rather than
prescriptive.
How do we begin to make adaptation accepted, acted upon
and transform it into realizable projects within the MENA
region?
How do we begin to become modest & move from paper to
action?
38. The Spatial Dimension of Adaptation Planning
The MENA Context
Yaser Abunnasr
American University of Beirut
University of Massachusetts Amherst
ya20@aub.edu.lb & yabunnas@gmail.com
Second Regional Summer School
September 30 to October 04, 2012
Amman, Jordan