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Y376 International Political Economy January 18, 2011
What is an exchange rate? ,[object Object]
What the International Monetary System Has to Do ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Definitions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],“ surplus” means balance is positive “ deficit” means balance is negative
Figure 2-12. U.S. Balance of Trade in Goods and Services and Balance of Payments on Current Account, 1946-2006, in Billions of Current Dollars Source:  Economic Report of the President   2008 ,  http://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/tables08.html .
US Trade Balance, 1980-2009
U.S. Balance of Trade, 2008-2009
US Balance of Trade, 2009-2010
Structural Imbalance ,[object Object],[object Object]
What is a Key Currency? ,[object Object]
Figure 2-6. The Dollar as Percent of Total Official Foreign Currency Holdings, 1978, 1986, 1996, and 2007 Source: International Monetary Fund,  Annual Reports , various years.
Special Status of Key Currency Country ,[object Object],[object Object]
Structural Surplus Countries ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Figure 2.14. US-China and US-Japan Bilateral Trade Deficits, in Billions of Dollars,1991-2006 Source:  Economic Report of the President 2000 and 2008 .
Figure 2-10. Balance of Payments in the G-5 Countries, 1970-2007, in Billions of Current Dollars Source: World Bank,  World Development Indicators 2001 on CD-ROM; OECD.StatExtracts,  http://webnet.oecd.org/wbos/Index.aspx .
The Nixon Shock of 1971 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Nixon, Connally, and the Smithsonian Agreement
Figure 2-6. Volatility in Deutsche Mark (DM) and Yen Exchange Rates with the U.S. Dollar, 1965-1979, Percentage Changes from the Previous Month Source:  International Financial Statistics CD-ROM  (Washington, D.C.: IMF,  January 2002.
Plaza Accord ,[object Object]
Yen-Dollar and DM-Dollar Exchange Rates, 1964-1993 Nixon Shock Plaza Accords
Figure 2-13. DM-Dollar, Yen-Dollar, and Euro-Dollar Exchange Rates, 1985-2007 Source:  Economic Report of the President 2000 and 2008, http://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/tables08.html .
Shift in the Monetary Regime After 1971
Predictions of Doom ,[object Object],[object Object]
Alternative View ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Global Financial Crisis 2008 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
US Home Price Index 1890-2010 1890-2005 1963-2008 The Bubble Bursts
How the Bubble Occurred
Subprime Mortgage Crisis
US Trade Deficit vs. Deficit with China, 1990-2004
US Trade in Goods Deficit with China, 2009-2010
China US Trade Balance, 2007-2010
Yuan-Dollar Exchange Rate
Yuan-Dollar Exchange Rate, 2000-2010
Per Capita Income in China, 1960-2008

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Exploring exchange rates, trade balances, and key currencies