SSAI Webinar - Bronwyn Harch Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change - Sep 7 2012

1. Global Food Security: Achieving food
security in the face of climate change
The Role of Statisticians and Statistical Science
Dr Bronwyn Harch| Deputy Director
7th September, 2012
SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE FLAGSHIP

2. Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social & economic
access to sufficient, safe & nutritious food to meet their dietary needs & food
preferences for an active & healthy life. United Nations Food & Agriculture Organisation
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 2

3. Key Challenges Growing from 7 billion people
today to 9 billion by 2050
1.5 billion overweight 1 in 6 undernourished
1.3 billion tonnes 200+ million more
of food wasted hungry after 2007/8
each year price spikes
1.5 billion depend 1.4 billion live on
on degrading land <USD$1.25 / day
12 million ha of additional 7.5 billion USD lost to
agricultural land degraded/year extreme weather in 2010
Beddington et al. 2011 available at www.ccafs.cgiar.org/commission
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 3

4. Key Elements to Food Insecurity
Photo: International Rice Research Institute (IRRI)
 Converging threats from
climate change, population
growth & unsustainable
resource use
 Resource competition, land
degradation & greenhouse
gas emissions
 Food price volatility &
conflicts associated with
food shortages
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 4

5. Commission on Sustainable Agriculture
& Climate Change
• Established by the Consultative Group on
International Agricultural Research (CGIAR)
• Program on Climate Change, Agriculture &
Food Security (CCAFS) with support from the
Global Donor Platform for Rural
Development (GDPRD)
• 13 eminent natural and social scientists
from around the world
• Evidence-based policy recommendations:
A ‘road map’ for policy makers
Released in November 2011
• Full Report released 28th March 2012
http://ccafs.cgiar.org/commission/
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 5

6. Major Findings
 Business as usual will not bring
Photo: International Rice Research Institute (IRRI)
food security & environmental
sustainability
 Need to simultaneously address
global agriculture within the
context of the food system &
climate change
 The interconnected nature of
these challenges demands an
integrated management
approach
 The world’s poor are less resilient
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 6

7. Seven Recommendations
1. Integrate food security & sustainable agriculture
into global & national policies
2. Significantly raise the level of global investment in sustainable agriculture &
food systems in the next decade
3. Target populations & sectors most vulnerable to climate change & food
insecurity
4. Reshape food access & consumption patterns to ensure basic nutritional
needs are met & foster sustainable eating habits worldwide
5. Reduce loss & waste in food systems – particularly from infrastructure,
farming practices, processing, distribution & household habits
6. Sustainably intensify agricultural production while reducing greenhouse gas
emissions & other negative environmental impacts
7. Create comprehensive, shared, integrated information systems that
encompass human & ecological dimensions
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 7

8. Key insights related to
Australia’s interest in food
security
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 8

9. Australia’s interests in food security
• Australia has a high level of food security
o export ~60% of food production
o produce 1% of world’s food; 3% of traded food
• Share same health/diet issues with higher income countries
• Land and water are increasingly contested
o for food, fibre, fuel and carbon sinks
• Droughts and floods constrain agricultural outputs
• Strong population growth is fuelling community debate on
“sustainability”
• National policy related developments and dialogue
• International engagement around food security
DAFF 2012. FOODmap. An analysis of the Australian food supply chain
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 9

10. Action in needed on three fronts
1) reducing demand
2) sustaining existing productivity
3) filling the production gap
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 10

11. Food Demand Scenarios 1960 to 2050
45
Plus 20 % wastage
loss in value chain
40
Global Food Demand (Petacal/day)
Plus 6 or 12 %
diversion to biofuels
35
9B people + consumption
increase in developing
30 countries
25 9B people
8B people , no
20 consumption increae
15
10
5
0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year

12. A ‘Mega-wedge’ of Food Demand
45
40 Filling the
Global Food Demand (Petacal/day) Production
35 Demand
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 12

13. Other “Mega-wedges” of Food Demand ?
45
Global Food Demand (Petacal/day) 40
Filling the
35 Production
Demand
30
25
Avoiding
20 losses of
productive
15
capacity
10
5
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 13

14. Other “Mega-wedges” of Food Demand ?
45
Reducing
40
Global Food Demand (Petacal/day)
the
Demand
35
Filling the
30
Production
Demand
25
20 Avoiding
losses of
15 productive
capacity
10
5
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 14

15. Pathways to Address the Food Security Challenge ?
Reducing the demand trajectory
45
• Reduce waste along the food value 40
Global Food Demand (Petacal/day)
35
chain 30
25
• Reducing over-consumption in 20
human diets 15
10
5
• Rebalancing livestock component of 0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
future diets Year
• Develop “smart biofuel” policies &
technologies
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 15

16. Pathways to Address the Food Security Challenge?
Avoiding losses of productive capacity
• Maintaining pest & disease resistance 45
& biosecurity 40
Global Food Demand (Petacal/day)
35
• Avoiding further soil & water 30
25
degradation 20
15
• Climate change mitigation without 10
loss of food security 5
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
• Adapting to unavoidable climate change Year
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 16

17. Pathways to Address the Food Security Challenge?
Filling the production shortfall
• Net expansion of the land footprint
• Net expansion of irrigation footprint 45
40
Global Food Demand (Petacal/day)
• Expanding aquaculture based
35
30
production 25
20
• Increasing production intensity 15
10
• Closing yield gaps
5
0
(including raising eco-efficiency)
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
• Raising yield ceilings through new
technologies
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 17

19. Pathways ahead for the Govt and Industry?
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 19

20. Translation...
Carbon storage
Greenhouse gas
abatement Livelihood
Profitability
Agri-environmental
Productivity stewardship

21. Greenhouse gas Agri-environmental
abatement Productivity stewardship
Carbon storage
Livelihood
Profitability

22. Pathways ahead for the Govt and Industry?
Contribution of statisticians & statistical science?
◦ innovation ◦ partnerships ◦ knowledge services
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 22

23. What is Agri-Environmental
Informatics?
Modelling of
Key Processes
Enhancing
* environmental
Design, accounting Next
Integration & Generation
* landscape stewardship
Synthesis of Data
Observational * environmental services Acquisition
Data * community well-being Technologies
* competitive edge
Enabling Risk
Informed
Decision
Making

24. Reflections: innovation, partnerships
knowledge services
Deep engagement with stakeholders
 adoption and impact
Strong disciplinary science across a range of
disciplines
Transdisciplinary integrators and modellers
 space, time
 competing objectives
High level visualisation and communication
technologies
 space, time
 risk profiles A mosaic of native ecosystems, plantations, and agriculture on
 uncertainty Kangaroo Island, SA.

25. Thank you
Sustainable Agriculture Flagship
Dr Bronwyn Harch
Deputy Director
t +61 7 3833 5631
e bronwyn.harch@csiro.au
w www.csiro.au/SAF