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S P O T T I N G T H E F U T U R E
H O R I Z O N S C A N N I N G I N A R M E N I A , E G Y P T A N D G E O R G I A
Alberto Cottica, Inga Popovaite, Noemi Salantiu
30 July 2014
Photo: Medhin Paolos
D ATA A N D F I N D I N G S
PA R T O N E
P U R P O S E
• Spot The Future (STF) is a foresight
exercise on Armenia, Egypt and Georgia.
It engages social innovators, hackers,
activists and other would-be changemakers,
mostly from the fringes of the economy and
society, based on the premise that societal
novelty starts at the edge.
• Its objective is to gain insight about near-
future dynamics impacting post-2015
Development Goals, building on the
engagement of over 3 million people in the
UNDG World We Want consultations.
M E T H O D S & D ATA
• Edgeryders and UNDP collected and
analyzed ethnographic data by fostering
an online conversation in March-June 2014.
It built upon the World We Want
consultation processes.
• The dataset consists of 161 posts and 782
comments from 128 individuals from 22
countries. We targeted social innovators,
activists, changemakers.
• Preliminary results were validated during a
focus group discussion that took place in
late June 2014, involving 8 participants.
M A S S I V E O N L I N E
E T H N O G R A P H Y
• Ethnographic coding was applied to 161
posts and 782 comments on the
Edgeryders platform. Coding is a standard
ethnographic technique. It consists of
reading all contributions and assigning
relevant keywords to snippets of texts.
• Keywords become then second-order data,
and can be analysed in various ways.
• 243 tags in 6 categories were identified
as recurring all along the STF
conversation.
H O W I S I T D O N E ?
• Seed a conversation through high-quality
content that is relevant to the theme. Start with
people “at the edge” and traverse the social
graph through social media.
• Grow your conversation by community
management, respectful interaction and
connecting people to each other.
• Harvest it by ethnographic software, built into
the Edgeryders platform.
• People select themselves to participate. This
ensures enthusiasm and eliminates researcher
selection bias (the “usual suspects” effect).
N O T T H E U S U A L
S U S P E C T S
• Participants in STF were mostly 21-30
years old; socially active; and
community-oriented.
• Diverse professional identities:
architects, designers, researchers,
documentary film makers, engineers,
yoga instructors…
• Not afraid to step in and take initiatives.
• Most were not “usual suspects”
UNDP works with.
C O M M I T T E D T O A C T I O N
T H E PA R T I C I PA N T S ’ P R O J E C T S A N D T H E I R K E Y W O R D S B Y C O U N T RY
E N V I R O N M E N T,
A LT E R N AT I V E E C O N O M Y,
I N C L U S I O N ,
E M P O W E R M E N T,
I N F O R M A L E D U C AT I O N
E N V I R O N M E N T, U R B A N
P L A N N I N G , G E N D E R
I S S U E S , E D U C AT I O N ,
C O M M U N I T Y
D E V E L O P M E N T,
S O L I D A R I T Y, M E D I A
E N V I R O N M E N T, U R B A N
P L A N N I N G , G E N D E R
I S S U E S , I C T, R O A D
S A F E T Y, S O L I D A R I T Y,
M E D I A
E X A M P L E P R O J E C T S :
C O M M U N I T Y- B U I LT R I N G
R O A D R A M P S
• The citizens of the Al-Mu’tamidiya community in
Cairo built four ramps to access the ring road
from their neighborhood.
• Formally illegal, they were built to government
specifications. Their cost is estimated at 25% of
what the government would have spent to do
the same work.
• Construction happened at the time of the
revolution, when the security apparatus was
busy in Tahrir Square. The post-revolution
government decided to accept the ramps as a
citizen-funded improvement and built a police
station nearby.
“ T H E P E O P L E O F A L - M U ’ TA M I D I YA N E E D E D T O
B U I L D T H I S E X I T F R O M A L O N G T I M E A G O A N D
W H E N T H E C H A N C E O P E N E D F O R
C O N S T R U C T I N G I T T H E Y T O O K T H E C H A N C E
D U R I N G T H E T E M P O R A RY C O L L A P S E O F L O C A L
A U T H O R I T I E S . ”
E X A M P L E P R O J E C T S :
C A R P O O L I N G I N
A R M E N I A
• A young woman created a Facebook group
(Carpool Հայաստան) to coordinate on
sharing rides. This happened in July 2013, in
response to an increase of public transport
prices in Yerevan.
• A massive response from society drove the
city authorities to reverse the price increase –
but the level of trust in strangers had
increased for good.
• Carpooling Armenia is now internationalizing.
In the course of STF a collaboration between
it and an Egyptian entrepreneur was started.
“ T H E M O S T A M A Z I N G WA S T H AT I N 2 D AY S
M O R E T H A N 6 0 0 0 P E O P L E W E R E I N V O LV E D I N
T H E I N I T I AT I V E . I T WA S L I K E A V I R U S . N E A R LY
N O O N E WA N T E D T O U S E P U B L I C T R A N S P O RT,
B E C A U S E T H E R E WA S B E T T E R O P T I O N . A L L O U R
S O C I E T Y WA S I N V O LV E D "
E X A M P L E P R O J E C T S :
G I R L S W H O C O D E I N
T B I L I S I
• JumpStart Georgia noticed that
participation to hackathons in Georgia is
overwhelmingly male.
• It responded by providing office space
and encouraging their staff to train young
female professionals on writing code.
• IT specialists work directly with a group of
around 15 women aged 22-35. The
women are mostly journalists and
activists. They learn to code in the
programming language Ruby.
“ C O M P U T E R P R O G R A M M I N G [ … ] I S A L S O A N
E S S E N T I A L S K I L L F O R I D E A L I S T S I N C O U N T R I E S
W H E R E O P E N D ATA A R E S T I L L S C A R C E , A N D
W H E R E I N F O R M AT I O N I S E S S E N T I A L I F O N E I S
T O U N D E R S TA N D S O C I E T Y A N D W O R K T O M A K E
I T B E T T E R . ”
Photo: Jumpstart Georgia
S Y S T E M I C
C H A L L E N G E S
• The challenges mentioned in the data
are mostly consistent with MyWorld
2015 survey: environment, education,
poverty, migration, un- or
underemployment, lack of transparency
and corruption in institutions
• Almost no mention of protection from
crime and violence in STF.
• Greater emphasis on urban planning
and environmental issues than in
MyWorld 2015.
MyWorld2015
top 5 choices in
the 3 countries
Spot The Future
T O P - D O W N
A P P R O A C H E S
• In their everyday work, changemakers are
challenged by bureaucracy, vertical
hierarchical systems, top-down approaches.
• Problematic relationships with
governmental institutions appear in all
three countries.
• Authorities and donors mistrust grassroots,
experimental initiatives.
• The traditional grant proposal-grant-
project-report is seen as leading to blind
fund chasing and no outcome.
“ A L L O U R R E Q U E S T S F O R M E E T I N G S A N D
F U RT H E R A C T I O N W E R E I G N O R E D . I T ' S T R U E ,
W E N E V E R I N I T I AT E D A P U B L I C P R O T E S T O R A
P E T I T I O N R E G A R D I N G T H E I S S U E , B U T T H AT ' S
E X A C T LY W H AT ' S M O S T F R U S T R AT I N G A B O U T
C O M M U N I C AT I O N , A S A N O R G A N I Z AT I O N O U R
E F F O RT S A L O N E A R E N E V E R E N O U G H . ”
D E A L I N G W I T H T O P -
D O W N A P P R O A C H E S
• Support each other, sharing human and
other resources.
• Lobby for more flexible and alternative
sources of funding – or try crowdfunding
(in Egypt it plugs into religious institutions
like zakaa and sadaka).
• Break down projects in small chunks and
target small, independent donors.
• Get training in project management – also
informally, by simply sharing experiences.
C O L L A B O R AT I O N
I S H A R D
• Individuals and organisations
trying to affect change perceive
each other as competitors.
• Duplication of effort is a constant
threat.
“ W H AT I F I N D L A C K I N G I S P E O P L E TA L K I N G
W I T H E A C H O T H E R , N O T J U S T A B O U T E A C H
O T H E R . ”
C O L L A B O R AT I O N
I S T H E WAY T O G O
• “Cooperation” is by far the tag
recurring most often.
• Appreciation was repeatedly
expressed for the “neutral ground”
provided by STF workshops.
• Bi-weekly meetings started among a
group of Georgian participants.
• There is a hunger for peer-to-peer
collaboration.
F I N D I N G
M O T I VAT I O N
• Changemakers and activists perceive
themselves and their peers as indifferent
and skeptical. They report struggling to
motivate themselves and others.
• This is explained by perceived
powerlessness (“I can’t change anything”)
and social mistrust (“people are too selfish/
conservative”).
• However, most participants are able to
motivate themselves into action. Their
main motivations are altruism and necessity.
“ L E T ' S B U I L D A P L AT F O R M T O D O C U M E N T T H AT
I N P U T I N A P U B L I C S PA C E A N D M O N I T O R T H E
G R E E N S PA C E T H AT E X I S T S ! I T I S O U R C I T Y.
L E T ' S TA K E B A C K O W N E R S H I P O F I T ! ”
V E C T O R S O F C H A N G E
PA R T T W O
N E W P L AY E R S I N
T H E G A M E
• Young changemakers are on the move to
achieve positive change. Most of them are
newcomers and many fly below the radar of
institutions. They are a new agent for change and
can be expected to have an impact.
• While broadly consistent with post-2015
development goals, their agenda has its own
priorities, such as the management of public
spaces. We expect to see them rise in the political
agenda.
• Policy implications: give these newcomers space
to take ownership of the issues they care about;
refocus tried-and-true approaches towards issues
that they don’t.
C O O P E R AT I O N
A N D S WA R M I N G
• Peer-to-peer cooperation is perceived as the
main for their initiatives to grow. They don’t
try to scale by recruitment; rather they share
resources, mobilising each other on the issues
they care about.
• We expect to see “swarming” behaviour:
almost instant redeployment of manpower and
other resources (such as social media traction)
from issue to issue, from campaign to
campaign. This can be very effective.
• Policy implications: provide safe spaces for
changemakers to learn to cooperate, also
internationally. Avoid zero-sum game setups.
I N T E R FA C I N G W I T H
I N S T I T U T I O N S
• The traditional grant cycle model is perceived
as distorsive and obsolete. Changemakers
struggle to fit innovative activities within the frame
of hierarchical relationships and administration-
oriented approaches.
• Policy implications (mitigation): provide training
on grant application writing, project
management and evaluation. This should allow
some initiatives to “fit in” without losing
coherence.
• Policy implications (radical): test and deploy
new forms to support grassroot, innovative
initiatives. Ask for help in designing them. We
know it’s hard!
D E M O C R AT I C
T E C H N O L O G I E S
• In their struggle for effective action, young
changemakers use a mix of DIY approaches,
open source software and open data. Geodata
in particular are seen as a tool to convey
information and support advocacy on issues from
carpooling to harassment.
• We expect to see a fast spread of democratic
technologies such as open source software, open
hardware, DIY, cheap drones.
• Policy implications: support and promote open
data policies; support and promote all
democratic technologies. Try to refrain from
hyper-regulating them, or the business models that
they enable (eg. Uber-like businesses).
C O N TA C T
Edgeryders LBG
Find out more at http://
company.edgeryders.eu
Or write to alberto@edgeryders.eu
Photo credits: Leonid Mujiri (unless
otherwise indicated)
This work is property of UNDP and licensed under a Creative Commons
Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

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Spot The Future: detecting change at the edge of society in Armenia, Egypt and Georgia

  • 1. S P O T T I N G T H E F U T U R E H O R I Z O N S C A N N I N G I N A R M E N I A , E G Y P T A N D G E O R G I A Alberto Cottica, Inga Popovaite, Noemi Salantiu 30 July 2014 Photo: Medhin Paolos
  • 2. D ATA A N D F I N D I N G S PA R T O N E
  • 3. P U R P O S E • Spot The Future (STF) is a foresight exercise on Armenia, Egypt and Georgia. It engages social innovators, hackers, activists and other would-be changemakers, mostly from the fringes of the economy and society, based on the premise that societal novelty starts at the edge. • Its objective is to gain insight about near- future dynamics impacting post-2015 Development Goals, building on the engagement of over 3 million people in the UNDG World We Want consultations.
  • 4. M E T H O D S & D ATA • Edgeryders and UNDP collected and analyzed ethnographic data by fostering an online conversation in March-June 2014. It built upon the World We Want consultation processes. • The dataset consists of 161 posts and 782 comments from 128 individuals from 22 countries. We targeted social innovators, activists, changemakers. • Preliminary results were validated during a focus group discussion that took place in late June 2014, involving 8 participants.
  • 5. M A S S I V E O N L I N E E T H N O G R A P H Y • Ethnographic coding was applied to 161 posts and 782 comments on the Edgeryders platform. Coding is a standard ethnographic technique. It consists of reading all contributions and assigning relevant keywords to snippets of texts. • Keywords become then second-order data, and can be analysed in various ways. • 243 tags in 6 categories were identified as recurring all along the STF conversation.
  • 6. H O W I S I T D O N E ? • Seed a conversation through high-quality content that is relevant to the theme. Start with people “at the edge” and traverse the social graph through social media. • Grow your conversation by community management, respectful interaction and connecting people to each other. • Harvest it by ethnographic software, built into the Edgeryders platform. • People select themselves to participate. This ensures enthusiasm and eliminates researcher selection bias (the “usual suspects” effect).
  • 7. N O T T H E U S U A L S U S P E C T S • Participants in STF were mostly 21-30 years old; socially active; and community-oriented. • Diverse professional identities: architects, designers, researchers, documentary film makers, engineers, yoga instructors… • Not afraid to step in and take initiatives. • Most were not “usual suspects” UNDP works with.
  • 8. C O M M I T T E D T O A C T I O N T H E PA R T I C I PA N T S ’ P R O J E C T S A N D T H E I R K E Y W O R D S B Y C O U N T RY E N V I R O N M E N T, A LT E R N AT I V E E C O N O M Y, I N C L U S I O N , E M P O W E R M E N T, I N F O R M A L E D U C AT I O N E N V I R O N M E N T, U R B A N P L A N N I N G , G E N D E R I S S U E S , E D U C AT I O N , C O M M U N I T Y D E V E L O P M E N T, S O L I D A R I T Y, M E D I A E N V I R O N M E N T, U R B A N P L A N N I N G , G E N D E R I S S U E S , I C T, R O A D S A F E T Y, S O L I D A R I T Y, M E D I A
  • 9. E X A M P L E P R O J E C T S : C O M M U N I T Y- B U I LT R I N G R O A D R A M P S • The citizens of the Al-Mu’tamidiya community in Cairo built four ramps to access the ring road from their neighborhood. • Formally illegal, they were built to government specifications. Their cost is estimated at 25% of what the government would have spent to do the same work. • Construction happened at the time of the revolution, when the security apparatus was busy in Tahrir Square. The post-revolution government decided to accept the ramps as a citizen-funded improvement and built a police station nearby. “ T H E P E O P L E O F A L - M U ’ TA M I D I YA N E E D E D T O B U I L D T H I S E X I T F R O M A L O N G T I M E A G O A N D W H E N T H E C H A N C E O P E N E D F O R C O N S T R U C T I N G I T T H E Y T O O K T H E C H A N C E D U R I N G T H E T E M P O R A RY C O L L A P S E O F L O C A L A U T H O R I T I E S . ”
  • 10. E X A M P L E P R O J E C T S : C A R P O O L I N G I N A R M E N I A • A young woman created a Facebook group (Carpool Հայաստան) to coordinate on sharing rides. This happened in July 2013, in response to an increase of public transport prices in Yerevan. • A massive response from society drove the city authorities to reverse the price increase – but the level of trust in strangers had increased for good. • Carpooling Armenia is now internationalizing. In the course of STF a collaboration between it and an Egyptian entrepreneur was started. “ T H E M O S T A M A Z I N G WA S T H AT I N 2 D AY S M O R E T H A N 6 0 0 0 P E O P L E W E R E I N V O LV E D I N T H E I N I T I AT I V E . I T WA S L I K E A V I R U S . N E A R LY N O O N E WA N T E D T O U S E P U B L I C T R A N S P O RT, B E C A U S E T H E R E WA S B E T T E R O P T I O N . A L L O U R S O C I E T Y WA S I N V O LV E D "
  • 11. E X A M P L E P R O J E C T S : G I R L S W H O C O D E I N T B I L I S I • JumpStart Georgia noticed that participation to hackathons in Georgia is overwhelmingly male. • It responded by providing office space and encouraging their staff to train young female professionals on writing code. • IT specialists work directly with a group of around 15 women aged 22-35. The women are mostly journalists and activists. They learn to code in the programming language Ruby. “ C O M P U T E R P R O G R A M M I N G [ … ] I S A L S O A N E S S E N T I A L S K I L L F O R I D E A L I S T S I N C O U N T R I E S W H E R E O P E N D ATA A R E S T I L L S C A R C E , A N D W H E R E I N F O R M AT I O N I S E S S E N T I A L I F O N E I S T O U N D E R S TA N D S O C I E T Y A N D W O R K T O M A K E I T B E T T E R . ” Photo: Jumpstart Georgia
  • 12. S Y S T E M I C C H A L L E N G E S • The challenges mentioned in the data are mostly consistent with MyWorld 2015 survey: environment, education, poverty, migration, un- or underemployment, lack of transparency and corruption in institutions • Almost no mention of protection from crime and violence in STF. • Greater emphasis on urban planning and environmental issues than in MyWorld 2015. MyWorld2015 top 5 choices in the 3 countries Spot The Future
  • 13. T O P - D O W N A P P R O A C H E S • In their everyday work, changemakers are challenged by bureaucracy, vertical hierarchical systems, top-down approaches. • Problematic relationships with governmental institutions appear in all three countries. • Authorities and donors mistrust grassroots, experimental initiatives. • The traditional grant proposal-grant- project-report is seen as leading to blind fund chasing and no outcome. “ A L L O U R R E Q U E S T S F O R M E E T I N G S A N D F U RT H E R A C T I O N W E R E I G N O R E D . I T ' S T R U E , W E N E V E R I N I T I AT E D A P U B L I C P R O T E S T O R A P E T I T I O N R E G A R D I N G T H E I S S U E , B U T T H AT ' S E X A C T LY W H AT ' S M O S T F R U S T R AT I N G A B O U T C O M M U N I C AT I O N , A S A N O R G A N I Z AT I O N O U R E F F O RT S A L O N E A R E N E V E R E N O U G H . ”
  • 14. D E A L I N G W I T H T O P - D O W N A P P R O A C H E S • Support each other, sharing human and other resources. • Lobby for more flexible and alternative sources of funding – or try crowdfunding (in Egypt it plugs into religious institutions like zakaa and sadaka). • Break down projects in small chunks and target small, independent donors. • Get training in project management – also informally, by simply sharing experiences.
  • 15. C O L L A B O R AT I O N I S H A R D • Individuals and organisations trying to affect change perceive each other as competitors. • Duplication of effort is a constant threat. “ W H AT I F I N D L A C K I N G I S P E O P L E TA L K I N G W I T H E A C H O T H E R , N O T J U S T A B O U T E A C H O T H E R . ”
  • 16. C O L L A B O R AT I O N I S T H E WAY T O G O • “Cooperation” is by far the tag recurring most often. • Appreciation was repeatedly expressed for the “neutral ground” provided by STF workshops. • Bi-weekly meetings started among a group of Georgian participants. • There is a hunger for peer-to-peer collaboration.
  • 17. F I N D I N G M O T I VAT I O N • Changemakers and activists perceive themselves and their peers as indifferent and skeptical. They report struggling to motivate themselves and others. • This is explained by perceived powerlessness (“I can’t change anything”) and social mistrust (“people are too selfish/ conservative”). • However, most participants are able to motivate themselves into action. Their main motivations are altruism and necessity. “ L E T ' S B U I L D A P L AT F O R M T O D O C U M E N T T H AT I N P U T I N A P U B L I C S PA C E A N D M O N I T O R T H E G R E E N S PA C E T H AT E X I S T S ! I T I S O U R C I T Y. L E T ' S TA K E B A C K O W N E R S H I P O F I T ! ”
  • 18. V E C T O R S O F C H A N G E PA R T T W O
  • 19. N E W P L AY E R S I N T H E G A M E • Young changemakers are on the move to achieve positive change. Most of them are newcomers and many fly below the radar of institutions. They are a new agent for change and can be expected to have an impact. • While broadly consistent with post-2015 development goals, their agenda has its own priorities, such as the management of public spaces. We expect to see them rise in the political agenda. • Policy implications: give these newcomers space to take ownership of the issues they care about; refocus tried-and-true approaches towards issues that they don’t.
  • 20. C O O P E R AT I O N A N D S WA R M I N G • Peer-to-peer cooperation is perceived as the main for their initiatives to grow. They don’t try to scale by recruitment; rather they share resources, mobilising each other on the issues they care about. • We expect to see “swarming” behaviour: almost instant redeployment of manpower and other resources (such as social media traction) from issue to issue, from campaign to campaign. This can be very effective. • Policy implications: provide safe spaces for changemakers to learn to cooperate, also internationally. Avoid zero-sum game setups.
  • 21. I N T E R FA C I N G W I T H I N S T I T U T I O N S • The traditional grant cycle model is perceived as distorsive and obsolete. Changemakers struggle to fit innovative activities within the frame of hierarchical relationships and administration- oriented approaches. • Policy implications (mitigation): provide training on grant application writing, project management and evaluation. This should allow some initiatives to “fit in” without losing coherence. • Policy implications (radical): test and deploy new forms to support grassroot, innovative initiatives. Ask for help in designing them. We know it’s hard!
  • 22. D E M O C R AT I C T E C H N O L O G I E S • In their struggle for effective action, young changemakers use a mix of DIY approaches, open source software and open data. Geodata in particular are seen as a tool to convey information and support advocacy on issues from carpooling to harassment. • We expect to see a fast spread of democratic technologies such as open source software, open hardware, DIY, cheap drones. • Policy implications: support and promote open data policies; support and promote all democratic technologies. Try to refrain from hyper-regulating them, or the business models that they enable (eg. Uber-like businesses).
  • 23. C O N TA C T Edgeryders LBG Find out more at http:// company.edgeryders.eu Or write to alberto@edgeryders.eu Photo credits: Leonid Mujiri (unless otherwise indicated) This work is property of UNDP and licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.