2. Workshop EDEN PPS6
Portuguese energy system scenarios for 2030 and Greenhouse
Gas emissions using TIMES_PT
28 Março 2007
Sala de Actos da FEUP
João Cleto
Departamento de Ciências e Engenharia do Ambiente
FCT - Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia
UNL - Universidade Nova de Lisboa
DCEA-FCT/UNL
Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
3. Overview
• TIMES_PT
– Structure and information sources
– Objective Function for optimization
– Model Inputs: primary energy potentials, technologies databases (costs,
efficiencies and availability of electricity generation technologies), etc
• Energy Scenarios 2000-2030
– Energy Consumption (total, sector, electricity generation)
– Technologies profile
• Analysis of CO2e Abatement Scenarios 2000-2030
Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
4. TIMES_PT
Structure, Inputs and Outputs, Information Sources
Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
5. TIMES Model
Dynamic model of linear optimization, that configures the energy system in
such way as to minimize the net total cost of the system, while satisfying a
number of constrains of the demand
Analyze the system behaviour over a
Objective function –
certain period of time and assume
maximization of total surplus
that the energy markets are in perfect
(the step function allows the
competition and the agents have a
optimization through linear
perfect knowledge of his evaluation programming)
Assume a linear behavior
between the outputs and inputs
(However, does not mean that production
functions behave in a linear fashion)
Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
6. Objective Function
(Minimization of Total System Costs)
NPV: net present value of the total costs
ANNCOST: Total annual cost
d: general discount rate
REFYR: reference year for discounting
YEARS: set of years for which there are costs (all years
in the horizon + past years if costs have been defined for
past investments + a number of years after the life time
of the technology if some investment and dismantling
cost are still being incurred, as well as the Salvage Value
Discounted sum of the annual costs minus revenues:
+ Investment costs
+ Costs for sunk material during construction time
+ Variable costs
+ Fix operating and maintenance costs
+ Surveillance costs
+ Decommissioning costs
+ Taxes
- Subsidies
- Recuperation of sunk material
- Salvage value
Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
7. Reference energy system in TIMES_PT
Commodities
Technologies or
Processes
Commodity
Flow
Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
8. Base Model Structure – Main Sectors
Transports
Refinery, imports and
renewable energy
Industry
Electricity
Households,
Commercial and
Agriculture
Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
9. Main Information Sources in TIMES_PT
General Structure
• Economic Sectors
• Existing Technologies/Processes NEEDS with minor adjustments/corrections
(aggregation level)
• Processes flow
Technologies
• Standard information
technologies description (Ex: mass NEEDS with minor adjustments/corrections
balances)
DGGE
• Stocks (Ex: installed capacity)
National Emissions Inventory
• Efficiency INE
• Availability factor EDP, PEGOP, Turbogás, Valorsul, Cogen, EDM, EDA (…)
• Input/Output ratio PTEN
PNAC
• Specific Parameters (Ex: CHPR)
Studies and Publications (...)
Energy Balance
• Demand division DGGE & Eurostat Energy Balances
ADENE (EURECO Project)
• Load Diagram (timeslices)
Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
10. TIMES_PT
Exogenous Inputs:
Energy services demand, New energy technologies,
primary energy potential, policy assumptions
Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
13. Primary Energy Potentials in TIMES_PT
2000 2030 Reference
Assumed a maximum growth 30%
Wood Products (PJ) 71.7 100 (+28%) of 2000 capacity
GPPAA & Extrapolation of PNAC
Biogas (PJ) 0.1 29 (+100%) Waste Scenarios
Extrapolation of Renewable
Crops for Biofuel (PJ) 0.0 15 (+100%) Energy Portugal Forum
Best guess based on 2008
Biofuel production (PJ) 0.0 50 (+100%) expected installed capacity
Extrapolation of PNAC Waste
Municipal Waste (PJ) 7.3 10 (+27%) scenarios
Industrial Waste – Sludge (PJ) 0.0 2 (+100%) Best guess
Assumed a maximum growth of
Hydro (PJ) 40.2 55 (+35%) 35% of 2000 capacity
Conservative assumption based
Wind onshore (GW) 0.6 5 (+98%) on REN
Wind offshore (GW) 0.0 2 (+100%) Best guess
Extrapolation of Renewable
Solar- heating (PJ) 0.8 38 (+98%) Energy in Portugal Forum
Solar-electricity generation (GW) 0.0 2 (+100%) Best guess
Extrapolation of Renewable
Geothermal (PJ) 0.6 8 (+93%) Energy Portugal Forum
Cruz, J., Sarmento, A. (2004).
Waves (GW) 0.0 5 (+100%) Energia das Ondas
Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
14. Energy Scenarios 2000 - 2030
Base Scenario
Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
15. TIMES_PT Base Scenario - main policy
assumptions
Base Scenario
CO2 eq. emissions restrictions (27% above 1990
levels in 2010-2030)
Min. 39% of the electricity consumed in 2010 is from
renewable sources
Biofuel targets for 2010 (5.75%)
Minimum use of Municipal Waste & Wood Waste
Use existing natural gas power plants & at least new 200
MW in 2010-2030
No new Coal Power Plants before 2015 & no increase in
coal in final sectors
Nuclear is not an option
Limited electricity imports (+100% 2005) and exports
(+100% 2000)
Limits on CHP (industry: +50% in 2020)
No credits from Kyoto mechanisms
Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
16. Energy Scenario 2000 - 2030
Final Energy Consumption - Industry: Base Scenario
600
Final Energy Consumption (PJ)
500
400
300
200
100
0
2000K 2005K 2010K 2015K 2020K 2025K 2030K
Coal Petroleum products Gas Electricity Heat Renewables Waste Others (Methanol, Hydrogen)
Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
17. Energy Scenario 2000 - 2030
Final Energy Consumption - Transports: Base Scenario
400
350
Final Energy Consumption (PJ)
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2000K 2005K 2010K 2015K 2020K 2025K 2030K
Diesel Gasoline Heavy Fuel Oil
Kerosene - Jet Fuels LPG Electricity
Renewables Others (Methanol, Hydrogen, DME)
Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
18. Net Electricity Generation 2000 - 2030
50
Tecnologias de Geração de Electricidade
Net electricity generation (TWh)
25
0
2000K 2005K 2010K 2015K 2020K 2025K 2030K
Coal Lignite Oil Natural gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar Others CHP - Natural Gas, H2, biomass
Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
19. Analysis of CO2e Abatement Scenarios for
2030
CO2 emission restrictions Scenarios
Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
20. GHG Emissions
Cená
Cenário Restriç
Restrições
27% acima das emissões de 1990 em vigor a partir de 2010 e
Quioto
39% da electricidade consumida em 2010 é de fonte renovável
20, 10 e 0% acima das emissões de 1990 em vigor a partir de
+20%, +10%, 0% 2020 e 39% da electricidade consumida em 2010 é de fonte
renovável
10, 20 e 30% abaixo das emissões de 1990 em vigor a partir de
-10%, -20%, -30% 2020 e 39% da electricidade consumida em 2010 é de fonte
renovável
Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
21. Electricity Generation Technologies Profile:2020
Elect ricidade gerada em 2 0 20 ( PJ)
% Electricidade
renovável
Quiot o 55%
CO2eq +20% 60%
CO2eq +10% 64%
CO2eq 0% 63%
CO2eq - 30% 67%
CO2eq - 20% 64%
CO2eq - 10%
63%
0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 160.00
St eam Turb Coal Ex CHP St eamTurb IndCoal Comb Cyc Gas Ex
Comb Cyc Gas New CHP FuelCell Gas Int CombOil Ex
CHP Ind HFO Ex St eam Turb Wast e Ex CHP St eamTurb Wast e
Hydro Ex Hydro New CHP Ind IPH Biof Ex
CHP Int Comb Biogas CHP FuelCell H2 CHP Int Comb Ind Oil New
CHP Ind Biom Ex Wind Onshore Wind Offshore
Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
22. Residential Heating Tecnologies: 2020
Aq u e cim e n t o d e e sp a ço n o se ct o r r e sid e n cia l e m 2 0 2 0 ( PJ)
53% Biomassa+solar
Quioto
52% Biomassa+solar
CO2eq + 20%
52% Biomassa+solar
CO2eq + 10%
51% Biomassa+solar
C O2eq 0%
50% Biomassa+solar
C O2eq - 10%
48% Biomassa+solar
C O2eq - 20%
27% Biomassa+solar
C O2eq - 30%
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Oil boiler Electr ic stov e Electr ic Heat Pum p LPG Heat Pum p
Wood ther m ofir eplace Solar / elc Solar / diesel D istr ict heating
Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
23. CO2e Abatement Costs
Marginal Abat ement Curv e f or CO2
60
50 50.16
40
€/ tCO2
30
24.90
20
17.92
12.96
10 9.19
6.67
3.79
0
Quioto 20 10 0 - 10 - 20 - 30
Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
24. jfcn@fct.unl.pt - João Cleto
sgcs@fct.unl.pt - Sofia Simões
http://air.dcea.fct.unl.pt/projects/e2pol/
Telf: 212 948 300 ext. 10180
Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
