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Richard Perez | SUNY Albany

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GW Solar Institute
GW Solar Institute

The document summarizes a symposium on solar grid parity presented by Richard Perez, Ken Zweibel, and Tom Hoff. It discusses that solar energy has vast resources and a built-in smart grid capability. As solar penetration increases, it can help reduce peak demand and stress on the electric grid. A value-based analysis shows that at high penetrations, the total value of solar to developers, ratepayers, and taxpayers, including benefits like fuel price mitigation, grid security, and societal and economic impacts, can exceed the cost of solar electricity and storage needed to integrate high levels of variable solar power.

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GWU SOLAR INSTITUTE SYMPOSIUM 4/26/2011 SOLAR GRID PARITY A value based perspective Richard Perez Ken Zweibel Tom Hoff
renewable finite 1,2 60-120 WIND per year Waves11,3 215 0.2-2 total SOLAR 10 Natural Gas 1,8 23,000 per year 3 -11 per year OTEC1,4 240 total Petroleum 1,8 2 – 6 per year 2009 World energy use Biomass 1,5 16 TWy per year 3 – 4 per year 90-300 HYDRO 1,6 Total 0.3 – 2 per year TIDES 1 Geothermal1,7 0.3 per year 2050: 28 TW Uranium 1,9 900 Total reserve © R. Perez et al. COAL 1,8
renewable finite 1,2 60-120 WIND per year Waves11,3 215 0.2-2 total SOLAR 10 Natural Gas 1,8 23,000 per year 3 -11 per year OTEC1,4 240 total Petroleum 1,8 2 – 6 per year 2009 World energy use Biomass 1,5 16 TWy per year 3 – 4 per year 90-300 HYDRO 1,6 Total 0.3 – 2 per year TIDES 1 Geothermal1,7 0.3 per year 2050: 28 TW Uranium 1,9 900 Total reserve © R. Perez et al. COAL 1,8
NEWSWEEK April 4, 2011 © Richard Perez, et al.
• Vast resource • Built-in smart grid capability • Energy breeder
NGCC Hydro © Richard Perez, ASRC
Heat wave A/C electrical demand peak © Richard Perez, ASRC
Heat wave A/C electrical demand peak © Richard Perez, ASRC
100oF 80oF 60oF 40oF 20oF © Richard Perez, ASRC
Northeast US – AUG 14th, 2003 © Richard Perez, et al.
17:00 GMT 18:00 GMT As little as 500 MW of PV dispersed around the major northeastern cities would have prevented the blackout An investment of $ 3 billion 19:00 GMT 20:00 GMT Outage cost $ 8 billion © Richard Perez, et al.
• Vast resource • Built-in smart grid capability • Energy breeder
30 yr life © Richard Perez, et al.
© R. Perez & T. Hoff.
© R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Developer © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Developer Rate Payer © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer EQUIPMENT COST INCENTIVES VALUE PRODUCTION VALUE TAX EFFECTS VALUE © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer EQUIPMENT COST VALUE VALUE INCENTIVES VALUE COST PRODUCTION VALUE COST TAX EFFECTS VALUE COST © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 – 30 ¢/kWh VALUE VALUE © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 – 30 ¢/kWh VALUE VALUE Transmission 3 - 11 Energy © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 – 30 ¢/kWh VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0–1 Distribution System Customer Customer Customer Customer Customer © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Distribution System Customer Customer Customer Customer Transformer Substation Customer © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
STRESS REMOVAL NO PV PV at 10% Peak penetration 8760 hours 8760 hours Electrical consumption for one year Customer Customer Customer Customer Transformer Substation © R. Perez & T. Hoff. Customer
¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0 - 3+ Capacity Distribution System Customer Customer Customer Customer Transformer Substation Customer © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation © Richard Perez, et al.
¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid Security 2-3 enhancement US-Wide cost of outages: $100- 200 billion per year* 5-10% mitigated by PV *Gellings, C. W., and K. Yeager, (2004): Transforming the electric infrastructure. Physics Today, Dec. 2004. © Richard Perez, et al.
¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid Security 2-3 enhancement Environment & 3-6 Health © Richard Perez, et al.
¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Coal generation cost: 9-25 cents per KWh Grid Security Non-shale natural gas: 3-6 cents per kWh 2-3 enhancement GHG mitigation alone: 2 – 100 cents per KWh Environment & Given New York and neighboring states energy mix >>> 3-6 Health © noliesradio.org © Richard Perez, et al.
¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid Security 2-3 enhancement Environment & 3-6 Health Long term societal value © Richard Perez, et al.
2016 2036 © Richard Perez, et al.
SOLAR 2016 2036 © Richard Perez, et al.
2016 2036 DISCOUNT RATE The weight of future events on present decision making is discounted • Use a societal discount rate of 2% e.g., at 9% an event 30 years in the future • Conservatively assume a 2.5 increase on commodities over 30 years is worth only 5% of its future value. © Richard Perez, et al.
2016 2036 DISCOUNT RATE The weight of future events on present decision making is discounted • Use a societal discount rate of 2% e.g., at 9% an event 30 years in the future • Conservatively assume a 2.5 increase on commodities over 30 years is worth only 5% of its future value. © Richard Perez, et al.
¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid Security 2-3 enhancement Environment & 3-6 Health Long -term 3-4 Societal Value © Richard Perez, et al.
¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid Security 2-3 enhancement Environment & 3-6 Health Long -term 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth © Richard Perez, et al.
¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid SecurityGermany & Ontario Experience: 2-3 enhancement • Solar implies more jobs than Environment & conventional energy 3-6 Health • 10 times per kWh Long -term • 2.5 sustained jobs per MW 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth Reduced unemployment, Enhanced confidence conducive to business development Increased tax revenues © Richard Perez, et al.
¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid SecurityGermany & Ontario Experience: 2-3 enhancement • Solar implies more jobs than Environment & conventional energy 3-6 Health • 10 times per kWh Long -term • 2.5 sustained jobs per MW 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth Reduced unemployment, 3+ Enhanced confidence conducive to business development Increased tax revenues $$ © Richard Perez, et al.
¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid Security 2-3 enhancement Environment & 3-6 Health Long -term 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth 3+ High penetration © Richard Perez, et al.
Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold 20 day sample of Summer New York City electrical load © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold VARIABLE LOAD GENERATION BASE LOAD GENERATION © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Solar Penetration: 3% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
5% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 8% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 10% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 13% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 15% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 18% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 20% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 23% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 25% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 28% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 30% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 33% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 35% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 38% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 40% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 43% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 45% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 48% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 50% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 53% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 55% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 58% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 60% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 63% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 65% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 68% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 70% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 73% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 75% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Cost of high penetration << 5 cents/kWh For penetration of up to 30% in New York © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid Security 2-3 enhancement Environment & 3-6 Health Long -term 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth 3+ High Penetration 0 – 5 up to 30% © Richard Perez, et al.
¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid Security 2-3 enhancement Environment & 3-6 Health Long -term 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth 3+ High Penetration 0-5 TOTAL 15 - 30 15 – 41 © Richard Perez, et al.
¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE UNACCOUNTED VALUE ITEMS: Transmission 6 - 11 Energy • Solar useful life >>30 years 0 - 5 Transmission Capacity • Reduction of international tensions and Distribution Energy 0-1 military expense required secure ever more Distribution limited energy paths into the US Capacity 0-3 • Dispersed energy resource is3 inherently more Fuel Price -5 Mitigation secure Grid Security • Economic growth beyond tax revenues 2-3 enhancement Environment & • Government incentives for fossil and nuclear 3 - 6 Health resources Long -term 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth 3+ High Penetration 0-5 TOTAL 15 - 30 15 – 41 © Richard Perez, et al.
¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE UNACCOUNTED VALUE ITEMS: Transmission 6 - 11 Energy • Solar useful life >>30 years 0 - 5 Transmission Capacity • Reduction of international tensions and Distribution Energy 0-1 military expense required secure ever more Distribution limited energy paths into the US Capacity 0-3 • Dispersed energy resource is3 inherently more Fuel Price -5 Mitigation secure Grid Security • Economic growth beyond tax revenues 2-3 enhancement Environment & • Government incentives for fossil and nuclear 3 - 6 Health resources Long -term 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth 3+ High Penetration 0-5 TOTAL 15 - 30 15 – 41 ++ © Richard Perez, et al.
¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission Net meter 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy RECs 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Grants Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Tax effects Grid Security Auctions 2-3 enhancement Environment & FIT 3-6 Health Long -term 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth 3+ Penetration Cost 0-5 TOTAL 15 - 30 15 – 41 © Richard Perez, et al.
¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission Net meter 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy RECs 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Grants Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Tax effects Grid Security Auctions 2-3 enhancement Environment & FIT 3-6 Health Long -term 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth 3+ Penetration Cost 0-5 TOTAL 15 - 30 15 – 41 © Richard Perez, et al.
¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid Security 2-3 enhancement Environment & 3-6 Health Long -term 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth 3+ High Penetration 0-5 TOTAL 15 - 30 15 – 41 © Richard Perez, et al.
¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid Security 2-3 enhancement Environment & 3-6 Health Long -term 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth 3+ High Penetration 0-5 TOTAL 15 - 30 15 – 41 © Richard Perez, et al.
Penetration costs << 5c/kWh 30% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff. © Richard Perez, et al.
Penetration costs > 80 c/kWh 75% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff. © Richard Perez, et al.
1. LOAD MANAGEMENT © Richard Perez, et al.
Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © Richard Perez, et al.
Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © Richard Perez, et al.
Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © Richard Perez, et al.
Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © Richard Perez, et al.
Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © Richard Perez, et al.
Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © Richard Perez, et al.
1. LOAD MANAGEMENT 2. STORAGE metaefficient.com Flow batteries pangeaexploration.com Compressed air © Richard Perez, et al.
1. LOAD MANAGEMENT 2. STORAGE 3. INTERCONNECTION © Richard Perez, et al.
© Richard Perez © Richard Perez, et al.
renewable finite 1,2 70-120 WIND per year Waves11,3 215 0.2-2 total SOLAR 10 Natural Gas 1,8 23,000 per year 3 -11 per year OTEC1,4 240 total Petroleum 1,8 2 – 6 per year 2009 World energy use Biomass 1,5 16 TWy per year 3 – 4 per year 90-300 HYDRO 1,6 Total 0.3 – 2 per year TIDES 1 Geothermal1,7 0.3 per year 2050: 28 TW Uranium 1,9 900 Total reserve © R. Perez et al. COAL 1,8 © Richard Perez, et al.
solar Coal Natural Gas WIND Biomass Petroleum Uranium © Richard Perez
Miles below the ocean floor lies enough oil to power the US for more than a decade… …and perhaps our best shot at energy independence Newsweek March 22, 2010
Miles below the ocean floor lies enough oil to power the US for more than a decade… …and perhaps our best shot at energy independence Newsweek March 22, 2010
Miles below the ocean floor lies enough oil to power the US for more than a decade… …and perhaps our best shot at energy independence Newsweek March 22, 2010
2010 PV Installations: 13.8 GW Germany Italy Czeh Republic Belgium France Spain Japan ROW USA New York © Richard Perez, et al.
Rising Energy Intensity
Germany Italy Czeh Republic Belgium France Spain Japan ROW USA New York

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Richard Perez | SUNY Albany

  • 1. GWU SOLAR INSTITUTE SYMPOSIUM 4/26/2011 SOLAR GRID PARITY A value based perspective Richard Perez Ken Zweibel Tom Hoff
  • 2. renewable finite 1,2 60-120 WIND per year Waves11,3 215 0.2-2 total SOLAR 10 Natural Gas 1,8 23,000 per year 3 -11 per year OTEC1,4 240 total Petroleum 1,8 2 – 6 per year 2009 World energy use Biomass 1,5 16 TWy per year 3 – 4 per year 90-300 HYDRO 1,6 Total 0.3 – 2 per year TIDES 1 Geothermal1,7 0.3 per year 2050: 28 TW Uranium 1,9 900 Total reserve © R. Perez et al. COAL 1,8
  • 3. renewable finite 1,2 60-120 WIND per year Waves11,3 215 0.2-2 total SOLAR 10 Natural Gas 1,8 23,000 per year 3 -11 per year OTEC1,4 240 total Petroleum 1,8 2 – 6 per year 2009 World energy use Biomass 1,5 16 TWy per year 3 – 4 per year 90-300 HYDRO 1,6 Total 0.3 – 2 per year TIDES 1 Geothermal1,7 0.3 per year 2050: 28 TW Uranium 1,9 900 Total reserve © R. Perez et al. COAL 1,8
  • 4. NEWSWEEK April 4, 2011 © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 5. • Vast resource • Built-in smart grid capability • Energy breeder
  • 6. NGCC Hydro © Richard Perez, ASRC
  • 7. Heat wave A/C electrical demand peak © Richard Perez, ASRC
  • 8. Heat wave A/C electrical demand peak © Richard Perez, ASRC
  • 9. 100oF 80oF 60oF 40oF 20oF © Richard Perez, ASRC
  • 10. Northeast US – AUG 14th, 2003 © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 11. 17:00 GMT 18:00 GMT As little as 500 MW of PV dispersed around the major northeastern cities would have prevented the blackout An investment of $ 3 billion 19:00 GMT 20:00 GMT Outage cost $ 8 billion © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 12. • Vast resource • Built-in smart grid capability • Energy breeder
  • 13. 30 yr life © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 14. © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 15. © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 16. Developer © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 17. Developer Rate Payer © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 18. Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 19. Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer EQUIPMENT COST INCENTIVES VALUE PRODUCTION VALUE TAX EFFECTS VALUE © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 20. Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer EQUIPMENT COST VALUE VALUE INCENTIVES VALUE COST PRODUCTION VALUE COST TAX EFFECTS VALUE COST © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 21. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 – 30 ¢/kWh VALUE VALUE © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 22. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 – 30 ¢/kWh VALUE VALUE Transmission 3 - 11 Energy © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 23. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 – 30 ¢/kWh VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 24. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 25. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0–1 Distribution System Customer Customer Customer Customer Customer © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 26. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Distribution System Customer Customer Customer Customer Transformer Substation Customer © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 27. STRESS REMOVAL NO PV PV at 10% Peak penetration 8760 hours 8760 hours Electrical consumption for one year Customer Customer Customer Customer Transformer Substation © R. Perez & T. Hoff. Customer
  • 28. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0 - 3+ Capacity Distribution System Customer Customer Customer Customer Transformer Substation Customer © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 29. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 30. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid Security 2-3 enhancement US-Wide cost of outages: $100- 200 billion per year* 5-10% mitigated by PV *Gellings, C. W., and K. Yeager, (2004): Transforming the electric infrastructure. Physics Today, Dec. 2004. © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 31. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid Security 2-3 enhancement Environment & 3-6 Health © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 32. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Coal generation cost: 9-25 cents per KWh Grid Security Non-shale natural gas: 3-6 cents per kWh 2-3 enhancement GHG mitigation alone: 2 – 100 cents per KWh Environment & Given New York and neighboring states energy mix >>> 3-6 Health © noliesradio.org © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 33. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid Security 2-3 enhancement Environment & 3-6 Health Long term societal value © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 34. 2016 2036 © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 35. SOLAR 2016 2036 © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 36. 2016 2036 DISCOUNT RATE The weight of future events on present decision making is discounted • Use a societal discount rate of 2% e.g., at 9% an event 30 years in the future • Conservatively assume a 2.5 increase on commodities over 30 years is worth only 5% of its future value. © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 37. 2016 2036 DISCOUNT RATE The weight of future events on present decision making is discounted • Use a societal discount rate of 2% e.g., at 9% an event 30 years in the future • Conservatively assume a 2.5 increase on commodities over 30 years is worth only 5% of its future value. © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 38. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid Security 2-3 enhancement Environment & 3-6 Health Long -term 3-4 Societal Value © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 39. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid Security 2-3 enhancement Environment & 3-6 Health Long -term 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 40. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid SecurityGermany & Ontario Experience: 2-3 enhancement • Solar implies more jobs than Environment & conventional energy 3-6 Health • 10 times per kWh Long -term • 2.5 sustained jobs per MW 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth Reduced unemployment, Enhanced confidence conducive to business development Increased tax revenues © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 41. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid SecurityGermany & Ontario Experience: 2-3 enhancement • Solar implies more jobs than Environment & conventional energy 3-6 Health • 10 times per kWh Long -term • 2.5 sustained jobs per MW 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth Reduced unemployment, 3+ Enhanced confidence conducive to business development Increased tax revenues $$ © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 42. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid Security 2-3 enhancement Environment & 3-6 Health Long -term 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth 3+ High penetration © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 43. Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold 20 day sample of Summer New York City electrical load © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 44. Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold VARIABLE LOAD GENERATION BASE LOAD GENERATION © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 45. Solar Penetration: 3% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 46. 5% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 47. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 8% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 48. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 10% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 49. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 13% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 50. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 15% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 51. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 18% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 52. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 20% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 53. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 23% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 54. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 25% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 55. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 28% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 56. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 30% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 57. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 33% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 58. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 35% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 59. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 38% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 60. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 40% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 61. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 43% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 62. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 45% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 63. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 48% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 64. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 50% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 65. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 53% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 66. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 55% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 67. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 58% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 68. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 60% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 69. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 63% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 70. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 65% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 71. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 68% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 72. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 70% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 73. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 73% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 74. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 75% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 75. Cost of high penetration << 5 cents/kWh For penetration of up to 30% in New York © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  • 76. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid Security 2-3 enhancement Environment & 3-6 Health Long -term 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth 3+ High Penetration 0 – 5 up to 30% © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 77. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid Security 2-3 enhancement Environment & 3-6 Health Long -term 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth 3+ High Penetration 0-5 TOTAL 15 - 30 15 – 41 © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 78. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE UNACCOUNTED VALUE ITEMS: Transmission 6 - 11 Energy • Solar useful life >>30 years 0 - 5 Transmission Capacity • Reduction of international tensions and Distribution Energy 0-1 military expense required secure ever more Distribution limited energy paths into the US Capacity 0-3 • Dispersed energy resource is3 inherently more Fuel Price -5 Mitigation secure Grid Security • Economic growth beyond tax revenues 2-3 enhancement Environment & • Government incentives for fossil and nuclear 3 - 6 Health resources Long -term 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth 3+ High Penetration 0-5 TOTAL 15 - 30 15 – 41 © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 79. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE UNACCOUNTED VALUE ITEMS: Transmission 6 - 11 Energy • Solar useful life >>30 years 0 - 5 Transmission Capacity • Reduction of international tensions and Distribution Energy 0-1 military expense required secure ever more Distribution limited energy paths into the US Capacity 0-3 • Dispersed energy resource is3 inherently more Fuel Price -5 Mitigation secure Grid Security • Economic growth beyond tax revenues 2-3 enhancement Environment & • Government incentives for fossil and nuclear 3 - 6 Health resources Long -term 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth 3+ High Penetration 0-5 TOTAL 15 - 30 15 – 41 ++ © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 80. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission Net meter 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy RECs 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Grants Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Tax effects Grid Security Auctions 2-3 enhancement Environment & FIT 3-6 Health Long -term 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth 3+ Penetration Cost 0-5 TOTAL 15 - 30 15 – 41 © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 81. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission Net meter 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy RECs 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Grants Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Tax effects Grid Security Auctions 2-3 enhancement Environment & FIT 3-6 Health Long -term 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth 3+ Penetration Cost 0-5 TOTAL 15 - 30 15 – 41 © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 82. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid Security 2-3 enhancement Environment & 3-6 Health Long -term 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth 3+ High Penetration 0-5 TOTAL 15 - 30 15 – 41 © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 83. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid Security 2-3 enhancement Environment & 3-6 Health Long -term 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth 3+ High Penetration 0-5 TOTAL 15 - 30 15 – 41 © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 84. Penetration costs << 5c/kWh 30% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff. © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 85. Penetration costs > 80 c/kWh 75% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff. © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 86. 1. LOAD MANAGEMENT © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 87. Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 88. Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 89. Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 90. Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 91. Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 92. Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 93. 1. LOAD MANAGEMENT 2. STORAGE metaefficient.com Flow batteries pangeaexploration.com Compressed air © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 94. 1. LOAD MANAGEMENT 2. STORAGE 3. INTERCONNECTION © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 95. © Richard Perez © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 96. renewable finite 1,2 70-120 WIND per year Waves11,3 215 0.2-2 total SOLAR 10 Natural Gas 1,8 23,000 per year 3 -11 per year OTEC1,4 240 total Petroleum 1,8 2 – 6 per year 2009 World energy use Biomass 1,5 16 TWy per year 3 – 4 per year 90-300 HYDRO 1,6 Total 0.3 – 2 per year TIDES 1 Geothermal1,7 0.3 per year 2050: 28 TW Uranium 1,9 900 Total reserve © R. Perez et al. COAL 1,8 © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 97. solar Coal Natural Gas WIND Biomass Petroleum Uranium © Richard Perez
  • 98. Miles below the ocean floor lies enough oil to power the US for more than a decade… …and perhaps our best shot at energy independence Newsweek March 22, 2010
  • 99. Miles below the ocean floor lies enough oil to power the US for more than a decade… …and perhaps our best shot at energy independence Newsweek March 22, 2010
  • 100. Miles below the ocean floor lies enough oil to power the US for more than a decade… …and perhaps our best shot at energy independence Newsweek March 22, 2010
  • 101.
  • 102. 2010 PV Installations: 13.8 GW Germany Italy Czeh Republic Belgium France Spain Japan ROW USA New York © Richard Perez, et al.
  • 104.
  • 105.